Valutazione e gestione del rischio nell'esercizio del sistema elettrico

Transcription

1 Valutazione e gestione del rischio nell'esercizio del sistema elettrico Emanuele Ciapessoni, Diego Cirio, Andrea Pitto Workshop nazionale Simulazione del sistema energetico ENEA, Roma, 25 marzo 2015

2 Operational risk assessment and management in power system Motivations AFTER Project: Risk assessment Conclusions

3 Today s power system Wide area power & energy interdependence Operational complexity Variability, volatility, uncertainty (market, RES) ENERGY

4 Today spowersystem Security requirements Physical infrastructure- power ENTSO-E : A single incident, e.g.: line, tie-line, DC link, transformer, generator Out of scope: busbar(it happens with low probability: it is a system vulnerability) Additional requirements adopted by some TSOs: Busbar fault for 400 kv substations Identification of N-1 generator combined with N-1 line

5 Severe disturbancesin powersystems Multiple initiating events Geographic dependencies Functional dependencies 5

6 Severe disturbancesin powersystems Inadvertent system response Fiberoptics damaged by rodents Wrong settings of protections Circuit breaker failure 6 Cyber security issues

7 Severe disturbancesin power systems Cascading Black-out often caused by rare (possibly correlated) N-k events 2006/11/04

8 Severe disturbancesin powersystems Cascading effects Cascading phenomena simulation with Statistical PF Model on Colombian case: 17 Oct 2013 From project F T ER

9 Multi-layer perspective of the Power & ICT Systems

10 Approach: bowtiemodel How to handle high impact low probability (HILP) contingencies? Risk approach => Probabilistic models

11 Riskof what? Initiating event(s) Loss of load Current violation Voltage instability Voltage violation Frequency instability Angle instability Cascading Uncontrolled islanding Black out Uncertainties 12

12 FROM -> TO N-1 securityagainst a credibleset of contingencies Vulnerability toevents of substantial risk Cascading failures, Large blackouts, ICT failures Wide area events

13 Threats F T ER Vulnerabilities EU FP7 Project approach Contingency Probability Impact N-k (physical) ICT (physicaland logical) Risk indices Basedon Cascading simulation

14 S B_B03I301 S SB1_B15Y211_PP S SB2_B15Y211_PP SB_B24Y221 SS B1_B09Q301 SS B2_B09Q301 N-1_B15Y211_B 24Y221 N-1_B03I301_B09Q301 N-2_Ln_10 _Ln_36 N-2_Ln_10 _2WND_B24YT2 N-1_B24YT2 N-1_B24YT2 N-1_B01I301_B03I301 N-2_Ln_36 _2WND_B24YT2 N-3_Ln_10 _Ln_36 _2WND_B24YT2 S B_B03I301_BDP_OOS SSB1_B09Q301_stuckCB_FAULT_ON_T_B12Q212T3 SSB1_B09Q301_stuckCB _FAULT_ON_L_IQ36 SSB1_B 09Q301_stuc kcb_fault_on_l_k Q311 S SB2_B15Y211_PP_stuck CB_FAULT_ON_L_YY27 SSB2_B15Y211_PP_stuckCB_FAULT_ON_L_YW29 SSB1_B15Y211_PP_stuckCB_FAULT_ON_L_YW28 SSB 1_B15Y 211_PP _stuckcb _FA ULT_ON_L_YY210 SB_B03I301_stuck CB_FAULT_ON_T_B24Y224T2 SSB2_B09Q301_stuckCB _FAULT_ON_L_IQ37 SB_B03I301_stuckCB _FA ULT_ON_L_IQ36 SB_B03I301_s tuckcb_fault_on_l_ii32 SSB2_B09Q301_stuckCB_FAULT_ON_T_B11Q211T1 SB_B24Y221_BDP_OOS SB_B24Y221_stuckCB _FAULT_ON_L_YY210 SSB2_B15Y211_PP_B USFA ULT_stuckCB _L_YY27 SB_B 03I301_BUSFAULT_stuckCB _T_B24Y224T2 S B_B24Y221_BUS FAULT_stuckCB_L_YY210 SB_B03I301_BUSFAULT_stuckCB_L_IQ36 SSB2_B15Y211_PP_no_signal_to_one_CB SSB2_B15Y211_PP_no_signal_to_one_CB SSB1_B15Y211_PP_no_signal_to_one_CB SSB1_B15Y211_PP_no_signal_to_one_CB SSB1_B09Q301_BUSFAULT_s tuckcb_t_b12q212t3 SB_B03I301_BUSFAULT_stuckCB_L_II32 SB_B24Y221_stuck CB_FAULT_ON_T_B24Y224T2 SSB1_B 09Q301_BUS FAULT_stuckCB_L_IQ36 SSB2_B15Y211_PP_BUSFAULT_s tuckcb_l_yw29 SSB1_B15Y211_PP_BUSFAULT_s tuckcb_l_yw28 SSB 1_B09Q301_BUSFAULT_stuck CB_L_K Q311 SB_B24Y221_BUSFAULT_stuckCB_T_B24Y224T2 SSB1_B 15Y211_PP_BUS FAULT_s tuckcb_l_yy210 SSB2_B09Q301_BUSFAULT_s tuckcb_t_b11q211t1 SSB2_B 09Q301_BUS FAULT_stuckCB_L_IQ37 SB_B03I301_no_signal_to_one_CB Angle instability Ris k (dt = 10 minutes)- TOTAL Risk= db (Lev el O = 1e-015) Riskassessmentof a systemstate Security Assessment Contingency selection Conventional security assessment N-1 s Some N-2 s Risk based security assessment N-1 s N-2 s «Risky» N-k s 8 x Contingency EMS High current Risk Index Cumulative Curve (time interval = 10 minutes) ctg: SB-B24Y221 ( cum % risk: 99.6) ctg: N-2-Ln-10 -Ln-36 ( cum % risk: 94.3) ctg: N-1-B15Y211-B24Y221 ( cum % risk: 32.0) Contingenc y ID Alarms/alerts/ suggested control actions Most critical! State Estimation/ Power flow SCADA Security level requirements Power system RTU s, PMU s Control actions 16 operator

15 Conclusions From deterministic N-1 security assessment «smart» probabilisticn-k contingency analysis accounting for dependencies avoiding combinatorial explosion adapted to the current threat exposure(e.g. weather) accounting for uncertainties Power system response (hidden failures) Renewables& loads (forecast errorsin operationalplanning contexts) Operational Risk Assessment Together with probabilistic tools for analysis of cyber risk exposure need for grid reinforcements due to security issues 18 A long path, in progress

16 Grazie per l attenzione! {emanuele.ciapessoni; diego.cirio; andrea.pitto}@rse-web.it