La Gestione delle Infrastrutture Critiche. Prof. Roberto Setola Unità di Ricerca di AUTOMATICA Facoltà Dipartimentale di Ingegneria

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1 La Gestione delle Infrastrutture Critiche Prof. Roberto Setola Unità di Ricerca di AUTOMATICA Facoltà Dipartimentale di Ingegneria

2 La Gestione delle Infrastrutture Critiche Modellazione Identificazione Controllo Problem driven COSERITY Lab Laboratorio Sistemi Complessi & Sicurezza

3 Ongoing EU Projects Collaborations Past EU Projects Ongoing National Projects PNMR SIM CIA Cyber Keiron

4 Threat - Vulnerability Path Identification for Critical Infrastructures Developing a comprehensive and multi-dimensional all-hazards catalogue for critical infrastructures

5 Sensors SWITCH RISK PREDICTOR Pumps PLC SCADA (ifix) HMI IDS EXPERT SYSTEM FAULT DETECTION Valves 5

6 METRIP MEthodological Tools for Railway Infrastructure Protection De Cillis, F., De Maggio, M. C., Pragliola, C., & Setola, R. (2013). Analysis of criminal and terrorist related episodes in railway infrastructure scenarios. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 10(2).

7

8 CI Operators DSS operator Critical Infrastructure Preparedness and Resilience Research NoE CI response on system of systems models Civil Protection and Local Authorities Simulator European Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center 7 July

9 (Real-time) hazard analysis Direct impact analysis First order impact analysis 0 CISIA (terminato) Residential 1 (FU) Residential 5 (FU) 800 Residential 2 (FU) Residential 4 (FU) Residential 6 (FU) Residential 3 (FU) PS 1 SS1 SS2 SS3 SS4 SS5 SS6 SS7 SS8 PS 2 Communication Hospital 2 (FU) Hospital 1 (FU) Telco BTS 1 (PAU) Water Water Pump 1 (SAU) Water Pump 2 (SAU) 1000 Minuto 10 Livelli:. ooo Telco BTS Master Telco BTS 2 (PAU) (SAU) Communication 7 July Communication Communication Water Higher order impact analysis

10 Risk Assessment Workflow Manager GIS Interface Impact Reporting Interface Consequence Reporting Interface Service Manager B1- Monitoring of Natural phenomena B2 - Prediction of Natural disasters and Event Detection B3 - Prediction of physical harm scenarios B4 - Estimation of impacts and consequences B5 - Support of efficient strategies for crisis scenarios. Persistence Layer Simulation Manager Information Sharing and Collaboration Module Security Data Access Manager

11 Damage estimate 11

12 Wealth function

13 Service Access Wealth (SAW) Indices

14 Inter-Dependency Input Output Inoperability (IIM) 0 * * * * 0 * * A * * 0 * * * * 0 a j i ij influence gain dependency index a i j ij Statistical data Expert knowledge Setola, R., De Porcellinis, S., & Sforna, M. (2009). Critical infrastructure dependency assessment using the input output inoperability model. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection,

15 Dependency level vs. operating conditions and outage duration 0,25 Fuel & Petroleum 0,2 0,15 0,1 Air transportation Naval Ports 0,05 Finance F. Conte, G. Oliva and R. Setola, Time varying Input- Output inoperability model, International Journal on Infrastructure Systems, <1h 1h-6h 6h-12h 12h-24h 24h-48h Air Transportation TLC Wired TLC Wireless Water Management Rail Transportation Finance Naval Ports Fuel & Petroleum Grid Natural Gas Satellite Communication & Navigation

16 IIM Fuzzy System To manage uncertainty, the variables can be modelled as fuzzy numbers (believeness degree) Oliva, Gabriele, Stefano Panzieri, and Roberto Setola. "Discrete-time linear systems with fuzzy dynamics." Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems 27.3 (2014):

17 Worst case Most believed case Best case Oliva, Gabriele, Stefano Panzieri, and Roberto Setola. "Distributed consensus under ambiguous information." International Journal of System of Systems Engineering 4.1 (2013):

18 Criticality map Dependency index Oliva, G., Setola, R., & Barker, K. (2014). Fuzzy Importance Measures for Ranking Key Interdependent Sectors Under Uncertainty. Reliability, IEEE Transactions on, Influence gain

19 7/2/ In fault January 31, 2014 Working

20 Electrical System # impacted people 65+ July 10,

21 ACEA Rome HT/MT/LT Control Room 7/2/

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