Transportation Asset Management Systems and Climate Change: An Adaptive Systems Management Approach

Transcription

1 Transportation Asset Management Systems and Climate Change: An Adaptive Systems Management Approach Michael D. Meyer, Ph.D., P.E. (Corresponding Author) Professor School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology 790 Atlantic Drive Atlanta, GA Tel: Fax: Adjo Amekudzi, Ph.D. Associate Professor School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology 790 Atlantic Drive Atlanta, GA Tel: Fax: John Patrick O Har, E.I.T. Graduate Assistant School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology 790 Atlantic Drive Atlanta, GA OHar@gatech.edu Total Number of Words: 6, tables/figures = 7,326 Submission Date: November 13,

2 ABSTRACT Climate change and its likely impacts on transportation infrastructure are becoming important concerns to many transportation agencies. This paper describes how an asset management system can be used as a decision making framework for incorporating such concerns into a transportation agency s current management approach. Types of climate and weather changes as they might affect transportation systems are identified. A typical asset management system is used as a framework for discussing where climate change considerations could be incorporated into the system. Risk appraisal is identified as one of the key components of a climate-change oriented asset management system, and an example is provided of such an application. Some international examples are provided of where climate change has been incorporated into asset management systems. The paper concludes that given that most state and large local transportation agencies have some form of an asset management system, it is the most convenient and targeted approach to incorporate climate-induced change into state and local transportation decision making. 2

3 Introduction Transportation Asset Management Systems and Climate Change: An Adaptive Systems Management Approach Instead of following standard practices, individuals and organizations will have to consider whether practices that have helped them adapt in the past will remain effective in the future, and whether they need to replace standards and practices that have been presumed permanent with ones that provide for reconsideration and updating. National Research Council, Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate, 2009 Climate change has become an important concern worldwide (see, for example 1-6). To date, most of the transportation attention on this issue has focused primarily on two topics. First (and the one receiving the most attention) how do we reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to decrease the rate and threat of climate change? Second, how do we prepare a future world for changing climatic conditions that are likely, particularly over the next 50 years, even if we succeed in reducing emissions in the short term? This latter issue creates significant challenges to the transportation profession, and one that over time will become of greater concern to transportation managers. Climate change can lead to a wide range of climatic and weather changes that could affect transportation system development and management in all geographic regions of the country in the coming decades. However, with respect to transportation agencies, the uncertainties associated with the time frames of such climate changes and associated changes in weather lead to questions of whether and when it would be reasonable to change planning, design, construction, maintenance and operational practices. Indeed, some locations may be so vulnerable to climate change in the long term (e.g., flooding, hurricanes, etc.) that strategic disinvestment or avoiding new development should be considered. This paper examines the role that asset management systems can play in providing a decision making platform for making investment decisions that consider the uncertainty associated with climaterelated changes. By incorporating the consideration of anticipated effects of climate change into an agency s infrastructure preservation and asset management process, and by doing this systematically over time, transportation officials could end up with the most cost effective approach toward system adaptation to changing environmental conditions. The next section examines the expected changes in climate and weather that could influence the condition and performance of the highway network (note: this paper only examines the asset management process as it relates to roads; however, similar concepts could certainly apply to other transportation infrastructure types). The following section then discusses the asset management process and how steps in this process could be used to monitor and respond to changing conditions. The next section presents examples from other countries that illustrate some aspects of this linkage between asset management and climate change. Finally, the paper concludes with recommendations on what needs to be done to adopt an adaptive road system management approach in light of potential climatic and weather changes over the next 50 years. Potential Impacts on Transportation Infrastructure of Changes in Climate Figure 1 presents a simple representation of the type of assets associated with a road segment.(7) of these assets might be affected over the long term by changes in climate, and in the short term by Each 3

4 Figure 1: Assets of a Typical Road Segment (7) changes in weather. Over time, sea level rise threatens to inundate low-lying transportation facilities such as coastal highways and ports. Increased risk of flooding, however, may pose a more serious risk than sea level rise. Climate change science suggests that the intensity of storms, particularly the most powerful hurricanes, will increase in the future. This means stronger winds and higher storm surges on top of higher sea levels, which could put even more land and transportation facilities at risk. Very high temperatures can cause concrete pavements to buckle and can soften asphalt roads, leading to rutting and subsidence. High temperatures will cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow, which may reduce transportation disruptions, but increase drainage problems. The melting of the permafrost will create significant challenges to road design and maintenance (as is already happening in Alaska). Increased frequency of freeze/thaw cycles could significantly affect pavement quality and hence designs. Precipitation patterns and intensity could change dramatically, affecting transportation networks and facility operations. Some areas may face increased precipitation and increased flooding. For example, climate models tend to project increased winter precipitation in the midwest and northeastern United States, increasing the risk of early spring flooding as snow packs melt. Precipitation intensity is projected to increase even more in the future, increasing the risk of flooding, particularly from convective thunderstorms in the summer. In addition to the direct effects on road infrastructure, changing climate conditions can affect many of the ecological functions of lands surrounding roads, and possibly influence existing wetland and habitat banks and environmental mitigation strategies that are commonly considered today by state transportation agencies as part of the project development process. Thus, future highway projects might face very different environmental mitigation requirements than they do today. Table 1 shows some of the changes in climate and weather that are anticipated in the future, and some of the transportation strategies and actions that have been proposed in response. Note that many of 4

5 Table 1: Illustrative Listing of Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies Impact Category Adaptation Strategies References Precipitation: accelerated asset deterioration Precipitation and sea level rise: Increased incidence of flooding events Precipitation: Water scarcity and loss of winter snowpack Precipitation: Increased incidence of wildfires Precipitation: Shift in ranges of endangered species Temperature: Arctic asset and foundation deterioration Temperature: Increase in the frequency and severity of heat events Temperature: Reduction in frequency of severe cold Sea level rise: Inundation of infrastructure Sea level rise: Storm surges More intense weather events: Damage to assets More intense weather events: Increased frequency of road traffic disruption, including interruption of emergency routes Conduct early vulnerability assessments Give greater weight to potential for ground subsidence in design of infrastructure Accelerate replacement cycles Shift to materials with greater resistance to moisture and heat/cold cycles Incorporate design features such as increased pavement sloping to improve resistance to precipitation Re-site or floodproof infrastructure Greater protections and construction limitations for floodplains and coastal areas. Shift to less water-intensive construction methods Shift ROW plantings to drought-resistant species and designs that reduce runoff Vulnerability assessments incorporated in infrastructure location decisions Use of fire-resistant construction materials and landscaping Keep abreast of ecological studies on a regional basis to detect observed shifts in habitat. Install insulation or cooling systems in roadbeds to prevent thawing Relocate facilities to more stable ground Remove permafrost before construction for new facilities Plan for more frequent maintenance Use of heat-resistant roadway materials Greater use of expansion joints in roadways, bridges, and rail guideways. Capitalize through the extension of construction and maintenance season Relocate assets Develop redundancy in travel routes near the shoreline Disinvest in infrastructure too costly to protect Elevate or hardscape the most critical infrastructure Expand drainage and pumping capacity Protective designs] Relocation of facilities Retrofit assets early for greater resistance to extreme weather Incorporate storm resistant features into future designs Minimize water-impervious surfaces in designs and design infrastructure to slow run-off from heavy rain events More stringent design, operations standards Develop redundancy in travel routes near the shoreline Elevate or hardscape the most critical infrastructure Create Transportation Management Centers, improve monitoring of conditions and real-time information made available to the public Greater emphasis on emergency evacuation procedures, making them routine 9, 10, 12, 21, 27 10,16, 22, 25 9, 11, 23 9, 15, , 10,11, 13, 22, 26 7, 11, 20, 23 1,4,5,6,7, 9,10,11,16, 17, 19, 22, 24, 26 6,7,8,9,11, 12,16, 17, 18, 19, 22, 26 14, 22, 26 9,14,15, 22, 26 5

6 Increased planning, construction, or operating costs due to climate change legislation Organizational adjustments (replace outmoded procedures, acquire new competencies) Early adoption of energy-saving measures to minimize the impacts of rising energy costs Conduct early reevaluation of procedures in advance of new requirements 14, 22 14, 22 these changes, such as more intense precipitation, sea level rise, and increasing temperatures, will likely have significant impacts on the types of infrastructure of most concern to transportation officials. The approach suggested in this paper, and one followed by more advanced efforts around the world, is to adopt an adaptive system management approach to climate change that can be implemented over time. In essence, as some of the changes listed in Table 1 begin to occur in significant ways, the adaptive system management approach will have identified which assets are most vulnerable to changes in environmental conditions. Ideally, given the long useful life of much of the infrastructure constructed today (e.g., bridges, tunnels and drainage structures), appropriate and flexible designs, maintenance strategies and riskoriented analyses should be part of today s project development process in order to consider potential vulnerabilities in the future for long-lived infrastructure assets.(7) Transportation Asset Management Systems A transportation asset management (TAM) system is a strategic resource allocation framework that allows transportation organizations to manage the condition and performance of transportation infrastructure cost effectively. Various primers, reports, scans, and case studies have been produced in recent years discussing the role that transportation asset management systems can play in managing a transportation system (see, for example, 27-29). Most transportation agencies practice some degree of asset management. However, since each agency is different, there is no single asset management system or one size fits all solution. For purposes of this paper, the AASHTO s definition of transportation asset management is used as a common point of departure:(27) Transportation Asset Management is a strategic and systematic process of operating, maintaining, upgrading, and expanding physical assets effectively throughout their lifecycle. It focuses on business and engineering practices for resource allocation and utilization, with the objective of better decision making based upon quality information and well defined objectives. The generic asset management system described in FHWA s Asset Management Primer (see Figure 2) will be used in this section as a guide to identify the key steps in an asset management process that can include climate change considerations.(28) The components of this generic asset management system include goals and policies, asset inventory, condition assessment and performance monitoring, alternatives analysis and program optimization, short and long range plans, program implementation, and performance monitoring. Goals and policies: Goals, objectives and enabling policies frame an asset management process within an agency. An effective asset management approach will align an agency s vision, goals and objectives with performance measures and targets at various levels of decision making, and have enabling policies to 6

7 Source: (28). FIGURE 2: System components of a generic asset management system. 7

8 ensure effective implementation. Most TAM programs have defined goals and/or objectives that guide maintenance, repair and rehabilitation decisions. Asset management best practice includes clearly defined goals and policies that can be translated into explicit performance measures and targets, and that are based on considerations of resources available to the agency.(29) Asset inventory: One of the critical elements of an asset management system is an up-to-date inventory of existing assets: data that identifies and accounts for the facilities that an agency owns. An inventory typically describes the attributes of existing assets that do not change with respect to time, including their respective locations in the overall asset base. For example, roadway inventory data includes information such as functional class, geometry, structure, material type and properties. Asset inventories are developed using location referencing systems often base on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platfrom, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), and imaging and related technologies. A good asset inventory will be updated regularly enough to provide current data on all assets (newer and older) at any time, to allow any asset to be identified as needed. Condition assessment/performance monitoring: Condition assessment is vital to an asset management process. It is useful to transportation organizations to not only maintain data on current asset condition but also past asset condition. Performance modeling is a valuable tool that allows transportation officials to predict the future condition and performance of assets. Many organizations strive to maintain their assets at a minimum defined level of service, i.e. maintain at least eighty percent of pavements in good condition on interstate roadways. The level of service of infrastructure assets is often directly related to available funding. Effective asset management practices can be used to predict the future condition of assets depending on available funds. As was noted in the domestic scan, many state DOTs have been able to justify their funding needs to their respective state legislatures using asset management systems. (30) Alternatives analysis/program optimization: TAM systems typically include alternative analysis and program optimization modules or routines that help agencies to specify a limited number of alternatives to meet the overall objectives of their asset management system most cost effectively. For example, an agency managing roadways may set as an objective a maximum percentage (say 10%) of the network mileage that will be allowed to fall below a certain minimum desired level of service (also specified by the agency). A set of rehabilitation and maintenance alternatives may then be developed to meet this objective, and the alternatives analyzed to determine the optimal set of alternatives (e.g., the set of alternatives that can be used to meet the specified objective at the lowest life cycle cost) (13). TAM best practice will use methods and criteria that reflect stated policy objectives, performance measures and targets to prioritize projects. Also, projects will be evaluated in terms of realistic estimates of life cycle costs, benefits and performance impacts.(29) Short/long range plans: TAM systems are a critical component of many transportation organizations short and long term plans since past, present, and future infrastructure condition is an essential component of a short or long range plan. During planning, projects are prioritized and selected. Several transportation organizations with more advanced asset management systems are able to conduct scenario analysis to determine the effect of different funding levels on asset condition as part of their alternatives analysis process. Program implementation: Once planning and project selection are completed programs are implemented. These programs can relate to different types of actions (e.g., major rehabilitation or maintenance activities) as well has defining the different organizational units responsible for different 8

9 actions. Program implementation often requires careful thought in terms of how an agency is going to provide the most cost effective and strategic management of transportation system assets. Performance monitoring: In order to ensure that an asset management system is functioning optimally, performance monitoring needs to be done constantly to ensure that a transportation organization is meeting its goals and following its policies. Determining the performance of transportation infrastructure requires the development of effective performance measurement criteria. NCHRP Report 551 identifies the core principles of TAM as: policy-driven, performance-based, analysis of options and tradeoffs, decisions based on quality information, and monitoring to provide clear accountability and feedback.(31) These seven elements of a transportation asset management system are used in the following section to discuss how climate change considerations can be incorporated into each. Linking Climate Change to Asset Management Systems Since the impacts of climate change will vary greatly from region to region (33), many local and regional organizations are taking the lead in adaptation planning. As of January 2009, 34 states have created or are in the process of creating Climate Action Plans (32). Most of these plans focus on mitigation and only eight states have completed or are in the progress of completing adaptation plans. Only 12 states have not created climate change commissions or advisory groups. Alaska is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change that is already happening. Of particular concern to Alaska are increased temperatures and their melting of the permafrost, which is already requiring retrofit strategies and reconstruction of some of Alaska s roads. Public Infrastructure is one of the four Technical Work Groups (TWGs) formed by Alaska s Climate Change Adaptation Advisory Group. California, Florida, Maryland, and Washington State have also recognized infrastructure as important components of their respective state adaptation plans. Numerous cities and counties in the U.S. are also developing adaptation plans or strategies. New York City s Plan, PLANYC, recognizes critical infrastructure as one of three adaptation specific initiatives. (18). The city s Inter-Governmental Task Force is developing an inventory of existing infrastructure that is at risk and developing design guidelines for new infrastructure. None of the domestic adaptation plans specifically mention TAM nor do any of the states asset management systems incorporate climate change. Nonetheless, several adaptation plans do mention components of an asset management system, such as PLANYC s initiative to develop an inventory of existing infrastructure that is at risk. Table 2 shows how the individual components of an asset management system described in the previous section can be used to monitor and/or adapt to climate change. At the highest level, climate change considerations can be incorporated into the goals and policies that guide the asset management system. For example, this might include explicit statements on identifying vulnerable assets on the network, and/or establishing procedures to provide an adaptive approach to infrastructure preservation and management in light of potential environmental changes. In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, the national agency has undertaken a targeted study of how infrastructure adaptation needs to be viewed by agency members and the role that asset management can play in the agency s climate change strategy. (14) The next step of the asset management system, inventorying assets, will not likely be changed significantly, except to the extent that an asset s inventory information might include the degree of vulnerability that it might face given its location, surrounding topography, or use in the transportation 9

10 TABLE 2: Climate Change Monitoring Techniques or Adaptation Strategies for TAM System Components Asset Management System Component Goals and policies Asset inventory Condition assessment and performance modeling Alternatives evaluation and program optimization Short and long range plans Program implementation Performance monitoring Monitoring Technique(s)/Adaptation Strategy(s) Incorporate climate change considerations into asset management goals and policies; these could be general statements concerning adequate attention of potential issues, or targeted statements at specific types of vulnerabilities (e.g., sea level rise) Mapping, potentially using GIS, of infrastructure assets in vulnerable areas; Inventory critical assets that are susceptible to climate change impacts Monitor asset condition in conjunction with environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, precipitation, winds) to determine if climate change affects performance, Incorporating risk appraisal into performance modeling and assessment; Identification of high risk areas and highly vulnerable assets; Use of smart technologies to monitor the health of infrastructure assets Include alternatives that use probabilistic design procedures to account for the uncertainties of climate change; Possible application of climate change-related evaluation criteria, smart materials, mitigation strategies, and hazard avoidance approaches. Incorporate climate change considerations into activities outlined in short and long range plans; Incorporate climate change into design guidelines; Establish appropriate mitigation strategies and agency responsibilities. Include appropriate climate change strategies into program implementation; Determine if agency is actually achieving its climate change adaptation/monitoring goals Monitor asset management system to ensure that it is effectively responding to climate change; Possible use of climate change-related performance measures; Triggering measures used to identify when an asset or asset category have reached some critical level. network. Low-lying areas that are prone to flooding can be mapped using existing inventories, potentially with GIS, to create hazard maps. These hazard maps can identify areas that should be marked as undesirable or possibly as a focus of special design considerations if infrastructure is to be built or retrofitted in such areas. Asset inventories could also note which infrastructure is considered critical, possibly serving such roles as evacuation routes, and thus subject to more careful monitoring. Condition assessment and performance modeling is the most important component of a climatechange-sensitive adaptive system. Transportation organizations that have strong asset management systems undertake systematic monitoring of the condition of their assets. Condition assessments of assets are often tied into the remaining service lives of the asset. The condition assessment element of this step in the process could certainly be tasked with assessing changing environmental conditions as well, in particular as they over time affect the performance of the asset. In particular, condition data and the often related inventory data found in asset management systems would be very helpful in risk analysis. Current approaches to risk analysis identify the most vulnerable components of a network or facility, defined by either its exposure to threatening events and/or the degree to which these components will be disrupted 10

11 give some probability of these events occurring. Thus, location data (e.g., flood plains) and condition data (age and deterioration) could become critical inputs into risk analysis procedures for climate change studies. The performance modeling element of this step is perhaps of greater interest in connection with climate change impacts. In this element, a risk appraisal approach should be incorporated into the asset management system that determines the degree to which environmental conditions are likely to change, and the level of risk associated with asset vulnerability. This risk appraisal approach is so critical to using asset management systems as a decision making platform for monitoring and responding to climate changes that it will be discussed in greater detail below. In essence, the performance modeling element can be used to establish a trigger in the asset management decision process that provides for different approaches to be taken or strategies tried given the high likelihood that an asset is vulnerable. Alternatives evaluation and program optimization with respect to climate change will have to recognize the level of uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. Today, such uncertainty is often not accounted for in the design of infrastructure. Probabilistic design methods can be used to account for this uncertainty (7). During alternatives analysis, or at a much broader level through the use of scenario analysis, designs that take the uncertainties of climate change into account should be considered. This might include different design standards, changes in project design life, incorporation of mitigation elements into the design itself, use of smart materials to monitor and potentially respond to changes in environmental conditions, and at the highest level of impact changing the location of the asset itself (e.g., relocating roads away from the coast line). An agency s short and long range plans for asset management include a variety of strategies that will be implemented over the different time frames associated with such strategies. A short range plan could focus on such things as maintenance and minor rehabilitation projects, whereas long range plans focus on the more substantive reconstruction of infrastructure assets that will be required through normal deterioration. Clearly, the long range plans should provide for flexible responses to infrastructure management as changes in environmental conditions occur. At this point, such plans might simply lay out the types of responses that might be needed in identified high risk areas and/or for particularly vulnerable assets. Short range plans could, if the opportunity arises and resources are available, provide for changes to existing infrastructure conditions as part of the normal rehabilitation and reconstruction activities. Of course, in the future, the short range plans will be involved more directly with environmental changes as they will have already occurred. Program implementation simply refers to the actual steps being taken to implement and operate an asset management program. Assuming that climate change considerations are considered to be important to an agency, this step might have climate change-related activities as part of the implementation program. Such steps might include drainage retrofits, bridge rehabilitation, facility relocations, etc. Successful asset management programs conduct self assessments of the effectiveness of their efforts, so with respect to climate change activities, such self assessments should include some consideration for how successful such activities have been. A key function of any asset management system is maintaining an acceptable level of asset performance. With respect to climate change, performance measures can be identified and used that focus on this issue. Many transportation organizations have Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) that monitor weather conditions in addition to traffic flows. Observed weather conditions could be tied to existing 11

12 performance monitoring systems to determine if the impacts of climate change have a negative impact on infrastructure asset performance. For example, if it is observed that a pavement in a particular region is subject to increased temperatures over time, increased precipitation, and increased extreme weather events, and these climate change phenomenon negatively impact asset performance, an agency can use its asset management system to adapt to these negative impacts. A promising area for the monitoring of infrastructure assets is the use of smart technologies to monitor the health of assets. Risk Appraisal for Climate Change As noted above, risk appraisal is one of the most important elements of an asset management system that is to be used as a platform for climate change-related decision making. There are many different approaches that one can use to conduct a risk appraisal, including use of Bayesian decision theory, fuzzy theory, scoring methods and simple expert opinion. The example below is taken from the Highways England effort at developing a climate adaptation strategy.(14) The primary criteria used to assess vulnerabilities included: Uncertainty compound measure of current uncertainty in climate-change predictions and the effects of climate change on the asset/activity Rate of climate change measure of the time horizon within which any currently predicted climate changes are likely to become material, relative to the expected life/time horizon of the asset or activity Extent of disruption measure taking into account of the number of locations across the network where this asset or activity occurs and/or the number of users affected if an associated climaterelated event occurs. Therefore, an activity could be important if it affects a high proportion of the network, or a small number of highly strategic points on the network Severity of disruption measure of the recovery time in the event of climate-related event, e.g., flood or land slip. This is separate from how bad the actual event is when it occurs, e.g., how many running lanes you lose; it focuses on how easy/difficult it is to recover from the event, i.e., how long it takes to get the running lanes back into use. Each of these criteria was ranked on the basis of a high (3 points), medium (2 points) or low (1 point). For example, for extent of disruption, three points were assigned if the disruption was expected to affect 80 percent of the network, or any strategic route in the network; two points for 20 to 80 percent disruption; and one point for less than 20 percent disruption. Similarly, the severity of disruption, three points were assigned if the duration was greater than one week; two points if it was to last one day to one week; and one point if it was less than one day. Based on the risk appraisal and a combination of the different risk factors, the following vulnerabilities were identified as being highly disruptive and time critical with high levels of confidence in the appraisal: First Tier Pavement skid resistance Identifying best ways of investing resources/investment appraisals Second Tier Wind actions (loads) applied to superstructures Designs for increased scour for foundations 12

13 Pavement material integrity Strategic geographic importance of a region Network resilience Budgeting Staffing Third Tier Pavement materials specification and construction details Design of pavement foundations Design of bearings and expansion joints Surface water drainage Attenuation and outfalls Pavement maintenance Flooding It is beyond the scope of this paper to describe in detail all of the different approaches that could be used to conduct a risk appraisal associated with climate change vulnerabilities. However, it is useful to note that the steps in undertaking such an appraisal would include: identifying what changes in climate and weather are likely to occur that will affect the environmental conditions associated with the assets under an agency s control; estimating the vulnerability of the different assets to these changes; and conducting a risk appraisal for each asset category and likely climate change scenarios. What would follow this appraisal as part of the asset management system would then be an identification of the different types of strategies that the agency might consider and the level of climate/weather change that would trigger the use of these strategies, and an assessment of the cost effectiveness of these strategies in the context of different asset categories. And as done in the Highways England report, it would be important to also identify the units or managers in the agency that would be responsible for implementing these strategies. Incorporating Climate Change Considerations into TAM: Some International Examples Several national, regional, and local governments internationally, specifically in the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ), have incorporated climate change considerations into their asset management systems. The UK s Highways Agency recognized that climate change may hinder the agency s ability to provide an effective road network, and developed its approach discussed in the previous section, a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (14). This strategy identified over 80 agency activities that may be affected by climate change. Sixty percent of these activities are expected to be affected within fairly short time frames. The Strategy called for climate change to be considered in everyday decision making process, especially in the Agency s asset management systems. Recommendations from the Highways Agency also include changing design standards for assets with a long design life, such as bridges, to account for predicted climatic changes. The Strategy recognized the uncertainties associated with climate change and noted that these uncertainties should not impede the decision making process. Higher temperatures and increased rainfall intensity were specifically noted as factors that may reduce asset performance. An interesting concept mentioned in the Highways Agency strategy is climate analogues. A climate analogue is a current climate that is similar to the future predicted climate of a specific location, i.e the south of the UK and Lisbon, Portugal. Looking at the climate analogue can help determine the amount of adaptation that might be necessary for a given region. 13

14 Also at the national level, Transit New Zealand (now part of the New Zealand Transport Agency) has incorporated climate change into its asset management system. An internal assessment found that Transit NZ s asset management practices have the ability to adjust standards for assets in order to manage the impacts of climate change (32). Transit NZ found that its current asset management system is able to manage the impacts on most of the network, but assets with a design life greater than 25 years, such as bridges and culverts, may require further analysis. An economic analysis determined that assets with a design life of less than 25 years did not need changes in design, construction, or maintenance standards (32). It was suggested that the standards for these shorter design life assets can be modified as the impacts of climate change are observed. Transit NZ has modified its Bridge Manual to account for the impacts of climate change as a design factor. In the UK, local highway authorities must develop a Transport Asset Management Plan (TAMP) if they want to raise money through public sector borrowing (35). TAMPs became mandatory in the UK in 2006 as part of the Whole of Government Accounting initiative. At the regional level, a joint report, including ten local highway authorities and other transportation organizations, regarding the development of TAMPs in the Greater Manchester Area, UK contained a section on climate change (36). The TAMPs acknowledged that many climate models predict increases in the occurrence of extreme weather events in the next 20 years, which was approximately equal to the time horizon a TAMP covered. The following six actions were identified in the climate change section of the Manchester TAMP with the most important one being the need to develop risk models to better inform long term planning: 1. Establish service levels and renewals strategies in line with carbon reduction targets in particular for street lighting and traffic signals 2. Identify carbon reduction measures through procurement and construction management 3. Adaptive strategies incorporate climate change forecasts into costed risk models for transport network 4. Drainage develop joint working group to address data sharing with United Utilities and Environment Agency 5. Investigate potential for further enhancing system performance/deficiency criteria 6. Ensure climate change and biodiversity considerations are incorporated into grounds maintenance strategies At the local level, Transport for London and the London Climate Change Partnership have incorporated TAM into its climate change strategy, the Climate Change Adaptation for London s Transport System.(12) The London Climate Change Partnership is a stakeholder group coordinated by the Greater London Authority that consists of over 30 organizations with representation from national, regional, and local government. As part of its asset management system, London Underground (LU) has mapped its assets against 200 identified risks and opportunities from climate change, identified critical points and their impacts on business, and developed correlation graphs between climate change parameters, effects on asset management, and predicted costs and savings.(37) LU has also developed a systematic approach to mapping identified system failure counts with weather patterns, such as sunshine, rainfall, humidity, and temperature, and has also developed a financial analysis of these results. 14

15 As can be seen in these international cases, before climate change can be incorporated into an asset management system the owners of the asset management system need to understand the potential impacts of climate change on the infrastructure assets they manage. Once this has been established, climate change considerations can be incorporated into the various components of an asset management system. This requires the sharing of information and cooperation between the scientific community, in particular those with expertise in climate science, and transportation officials. At the very least, efforts to incorporate climate change into asset management systems will foster better communication between transportation officials and members of the scientific community with expertise in climate science. Conclusions Climate change and adaptation of society to the resulting changes is becoming of greater concern worldwide. In the United States, several efforts have been undertaken to highlight the challenges that the transportation system will likely face. For example, a study by Titus (38) looked at the potential impacts of sea level rise on the Atlantic Coast and noted that more attention needs to be drawn to the ability of transportation infrastructure to adapt to climate change. Transportation routes can impact development for over a century and thus decisions that transportation officials are making today, particularly in coastal regions that are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, will have a lasting impact. This paper has argued that one of the decision making platforms for supporting the decisions that Titus notes is an asset management system. In the few cases worldwide where such approaches have been introduced formally into decision making, it has been located in an agency s asset management program. Transportation agencies should begin planning for changes and impacts that will occur due to climate change by developing policies and strategies for how they will respond; an asset management approach is well suited to help in such an effort. As noted in a domestic scan on asset management (30), however, the level of asset management implementation in the United States varies widely. To recommend that asset management systems be used as the logical platform for considering potential climate change impacts suggests that an asset management system is in place. In many instances, such is the case. In others, where development is underway or where it has yet to happen, this paper suggests that consideration for climate change impacts be part of the development process. Effective asset management involves the ability to monitor asset performance accurately. New technologies, or so called smart technologies, could be very valuable in monitoring infrastructure assets. Sidawi and Shehata (39) discuss using Infrastructure Health Monitoring (IHM) to monitor the impacts of climate change on infrastructure assets. More importantly, however, incorporating climate changeoriented risk appraisal into asset management is the key challenge to using the asset management framework for climate change decisions. Such methods as Bayesian decision theory, probabilistic design, and even Delphi processes could be used in this regard. From a broader agency perspective, several questions need to be answered before risk appraisals can be considered a strong contributor to an adaptive system management program. How does an adaptive transportation asset management approach apply to the impacts and adaptation strategies of climate change on highway systems? What are the sources of uncertainty in an adaptive transportation asset management program for different agency assets under varying environmental conditions? How can a risk assessment approach be incorporated into agency decisions that consider adaptation strategies? How does one determine the probabilities associated with different areas of uncertainties? How does one apply risk management applications to different types of assets? What are the steps necessary to implement a risk appraisal approach? The answers to these questions would go a long way to providing a strong foundation for an adaptive system 15

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