CRES - a Scientific Platform for Sharing Climate Change Related Knowledge in Denmark

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1 CRES - a Scientific Platform for Sharing Climate Change Related Knowledge in Denmark Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen Danish Meteorological Institute

2 Outline Something about communicating Something from CRES Something about outreach Something about the CRES platform Complementary projects International linkages Ways ahead

3 NAVIGARE NECESSE EST Thanks to Markku Rummukainen

4 From science to decisions

5 Researcher/User -dialogue User: What about this climate change?

6 Researcher/User -dialogue Scientist: What do you want to know?

7 Researcher/User -dialogue User: You know, about temperature.

8 Researcher/User -dialogue Scientist: Average, max, min, variability,?

9 Researcher/User -dialogue User: You tell me!

10 One Users can use information, if prepared properly Scientific knowledge AND users knowledge

11 Two Scientific articles are not a good way across But necessary for defining the base line knowledge Adds credibility when scientific excellence is documented Talks and seminars Briefs Proof reading Reference groups National Authorities cooperation Personal involvement and interaction

12 Three There is uncertainty There is information It s about the impacts

13 Four you Internal dialogue Key persons External demands change Collaborate, broadly

14 Adaptation is about many things Reduce harm Explore possibilities Enhance resiliance Bild: Ingrid Gudmundsson, SMHI Bild: SMHI Bild: Carin Nilsson, SMHI

15 CRES Objectives extend knowledge of and reduce the uncertainties surrounding regional climate change and its impacts support future climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, targeting Danish and wider regional needs. assist enhancing the knowledge base and direct advisory capacity for Danish actors, including government and the private sector

16 CRES Science DMI (lead) GEUS University of Copenhagen University of Aarhus Technical University DHI

17 CRES National partners: Danish Water and Wastewater Association(DANVA) Knowledge Centre for Agriculture The Danish Insurance Association Local Government Denmark (KL) Odense and Århus Municipalities International partners: Bjerknes Centre, Norway SMHI, Sweden Uni Lund, Sweden UCL, UK BC3, Spain and. FP6 FP7, NASA, ESA, DEFROST, GCRC,.

18 WB1 Center functions: practitioner involvement, open door policy management, education and dissemination WB2 Changes in climate and sea level WB3 Changes in hydrology WB4 Changes in biosphere WB5 Extreme events and tipping points WB6 Integrated assessment applied to cases WB7 New regional change tool: From uncertainty to risk management

19 ENSEMBLES Summer temperatures - ERA40 driven OBS Ens Mean Bias Christensen et al. (2010)

20 <T change >= <T T > JJA

21 <T change >= <T T > - <BC> Boberg & Christensen (2012)

22 How reliable are our sea level rise projections? Observed sea level rise tends to follow the uppermost dashed line of the IPCC scenarios, namely the one "including land ice uncertainty IPCC models underpredict rates of sea level rise by ~40% (Rahmstorf et al., 2007). Comparison of the 2001 IPCC sea-level scenarios (starting in 1990) and observed data. Church and White (2006) data based primarily on tide gauges (annual, red) and the satellite altimeter data (updated from Cazenave and Nerem 2004, 3-month data spacing, blue, up to mid-2006) are shown with their trend lines. Figure credit: realclimate.org

23 High-end estimate (for ΔGMSL = 130cm) Grindsted

24 Projections of extreme precipitation for Aarhus Statistical downscaling using weather generators Changes in extreme precipitation downscaled from 20 RCMs from ENSEMBLES

25 Flooding in Aarhus (100-year event) first results High scenario 2100 Low scenario

26 Diff: yearly area meant2m Diff: yearly area mean precipitation

27 The regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model Introduction Model configurations HIRHAM validation HBM validation Figure from Doescher et al. 2002

28 Strategic dialogs Tid Oktober 2011 (December 2011 Forsikring & Pension) 00 Velkomst ved VFL og KFT/ CRES Præsentation af formålet med workshoppen 10 Præsentation af VFL samt deres videnbehov (VFL) se nedenfor 30 Præsentation om klimaforandringerne i Danmark (CRES) se nedenfor 70 Kort pause 80 Dialog mellem forskere og interessenter (ordstyrer: VFL) Debat om VFL s videnbehov og hvordan klimainformation benyttes i organisationen (dvs. hvad vil man helst have at vide, hvem er brugerne, er der barrierer inden for organisationen, osv.) Debat af formidlingen til VFL; forslag til at styrke dialogen inden for området 150 Opsamling, afrunding på workshoppen Forslag om evt. nye møder 180 Slut

29 New lines of outreach Science 101-CRES and beyond PhD courses Advanced knowledge cruise Up to 3 visits per year PIs and senior staff Special CC science workshops Other DFS projects Open to end-users Dedicated results (open and closed parts) Refsgaard et al. 2012: The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies A Danish water management example (Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change) How good are our models to predict climate change and its impacts? (Copenhagen Oct , 2012) -> publication 2013

30 Kunskapsförmedling och kommunikation Carin Nilsson We are not alone WMO EU Interreg TFI Framework programmes ERA-net EUMETNET/ NMHSs EEA Clearing House Joint Programming Initiatives GMES

31 Symposium on high-end scenarios and impacts 26 Nov 2012 Eigtveds Pakhus from Registration on cres-centre.net The purpose of the symposium is to highlight some of the possible impacts for Denmark when changes in the global average temperature by far exceeds 2C and highlight the current needs for additional research to support a proper risk assessment and help reduce the considerable uncertainties.

32 CRES platform 2014 Third Nordic International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Denmark 2014 (likely Copenhagen) Bring together researchers in climate change, climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation with decision makers Adaptation Research meets Adaptation Decision-Making

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