Anvendelse af vejrradar til forudsigelse af kraftig regn
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1 Anvendelse af vejrradar til forudsigelse af kraftig regn (Baltrad.eu) Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering Aalborg University, Denmark Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 1
2 Content of the presentation Background for why I work with weather radars Weather radar technology how does it work and where do I get the data from? Example of application for real time control of Storm drainage and wastewater treatment systems Can we use weather radar data for protection of transportation infrastructure (YES) Ongoing research and development Student project WITI Invitation to collaboration and exchange of knowledge and experience Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 2
3 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 3
4 Aalborg den 19 Juni 2006 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 4
5 Aalborg den 19 Juni 2006 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 5
6 Aalborg den 19 Juni 2006 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 6
7 Background Storm and Wastewater Informatics (SWI) ( ) Vejrradar Baseret Styring af Spildevandssystemer (VBSS I) ( ) Vejrradar Baseret Styring af Spildevandssystemer (VBSS II) ( ) Baltrad ( ) Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 7
8 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 8
9 How does weather radars work? Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 9
10 LAWR X-Bånd DMI C-Bånd Mobil LAWR X-Bånd Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 10
11 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 11
12 Online data availability X-bånd (Århus) X-bånd (Aalborg) X-bånd (Hvidovre) X-Bånd (Hørsholm) X-bånd (Odense) X-bånd (Vejle) X-bånd (Egedal) Marine X-band Radars, range 60 km Developed by DHI 500 x 500 m, 100 x 100 m spatial resolution, 5 min. temporal resolution C-band Radars, range 240 km Danish Metrological Institute (DMI) 2000 x 2000 m spatial resolution 10 min. temporal resolution Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 12
13 Spatial resolution 2 x 2 km (NEXRAD) Kilde: COWI A/S og Aalborg kommune, 2007 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 13
14 Spatial resolution 100 x 100 m (LAWR) Kilde: COWI A/S og Aalborg kommune, 2007 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 14
15 Comparison between C- and X-band radar C-Band (Sindal DMI) X-Band (Aalborg ) Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 15
16 Storm and Wastewater Informatics (SWI) C-Bånd vejrradar Vejr model (HIRLAM) X-Bånd vejrradar Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark
17 Vejrradar Baseret Styring af Spildevandssystemer Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 17
18 Principle of prediction Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 18
19 regn prognose Regn prognose servere (AAU) Aalborg Radar PC Aalborg SRO/PLC Afløbsprognose server (Krüger) Århus Radar PC Århus SRO/PLC Åben web: Animeret radar prognoser Odense Radar PC Holstebro DMI radar Odense SRO/PLC Holstebro SRO/PLC Regn prognose middel for deloplandet Åben web: Flow/niveau prognoser Hvidovre Radar PC Hvidovre SRO/PLC Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 19
20 regn prognose regn prognosen Regn prognose servere (AAU) Aalborg Radar PC Aalborg SRO/PLC Afløbsprognose server (Krüger) Århus Radar PC Århus SRO/PLC precipitation Odense Radar PC daily temperature Odense SRO/PLC Åben web: Animeret radar prognoser afløbsmodel saturation storage snow storage normal potential Holstebro evaporation DMI radar Holstebro SRO/PLC Åben web: Flow/niveau prognoser direct runoff indirect runoff slow runoff diurnal variation Hvidovre Radar PC Hvidovre SRO/PLC flow measurement flow/niveau prognose Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 20
21 regn prognose Regn prognose servere (AAU) Aalborg Radar PC Aalborg SRO/PLC Afløbsprognose server (Krüger) Århus Radar PC Århus SRO/PLC Odense Radar PC Odense SRO/PLC Åben web: Animeret radar prognoser Holstebro DMI radar Holstebro SRO/PLC Åben web: Flow/niveau prognoser Hvidovre Radar PC Hvidovre SRO/PLC SRO målinger flow/niveau prognose Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 21
22 Kl. 13:00 Kl. 12: time Kl. 12: time Kl. 11: timer Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 22
23 Combined weather radar and hydraulic forecast Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 23
24 To much water on the road? Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 24
25 Visibility Aquaplaning Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 25
26 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 26
27 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 27
28 Can we use weather radar for climate change mitigation? Prediction of when and where extreme precipitation will occur Estimate return periods of the rain (severity) in order to activate emergency response Warn motorist though information systems about severe weather Generate input to hydraulic models in order to predict consequences Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 28
29 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 29
30 CAN WE USE WEATHER RADAR FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION? YES WE CAN! (AND WE SHOULD DO IT) Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 30
31 Under Construction Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 31
32 Stochastic calibration approach preliminiary results It is then possible to calculate the best set of parameters conditional on the observed rain and to calculate confidence bands Rain intensity (mm/min) Radar, stationary calibration Rain gauge Radar, dynamical calibration (best fit) Radar, dynamical calibration (all simulations) 0 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 04-Aug-2008 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark
33 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 33
34 Weather Informatics for Transportation Infrastructures (WITI) Student Project VD - AAU ( ) Malte Ahm Advance prognosis tool for extreme precipitation along roads, highways and railroads Combination with risk assessment tools (e.g Blue Spot analysis) Precursor to hydrological and hydraulic models for flooding and erosion Bicyclist weather! Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 34
35 Michael R. Rasmussen Dept. of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University, Denmark 35
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