Business in Surviving and Thriving in a Rapidly Changing Reality. Rohit Talwar CEO - Fast Future Research

Transcription

1 Business in 2025 Surviving and Thriving in a Rapidly Changing Reality Rohit Talwar CEO - Fast Future Research Eastside Leadership Conference Bellevue Chamber of Commerce June 12 th 2015 rohit@fastfuture.com

2 What We Do Speaking and Moderating Delivering keynote speeches offering inspiring insights into a changing world and how others are responding to the future Capacity Building / Future Leadership Programs and Events Designing high impact leadership development programs, workshops and events for leaders and decision makers in governments and businesses that encourage new thinking, bring the future to life and enable you to develop new strategies and action agendas Foresight Research Helping you explore and understand the roadmap of economic, business, scientific, technological, social, political and environmental trends, forces, developments and ideas shaping the future of the sector Investor Support Advising on emerging sectors, technologies and scientific developments Exponential Growth Consulting Helping you create future strategies designed to deliver exponential rates of improvement, develop new business models and drive innovation to respond to and create disruptive change Business Design and Innovation Facilitating development of innovative, future proofed designs for organisations, products, services, processes and customer experiences

3 Contents Presentation p. 4 About Fast Future p. 80 Image Sources p. 93

4 This presentation is based on ideas presented in our forthcoming book For a 30% pre-launch discount Go to bit.ly/fob10 Enter coupon code rt1 at checkout

5 The Authors

6 When Worlds Collide

7 Can we Change our DNA? Play by the Rules of the Game Create a New Game

8 Future Proofed Organisations Work on 3 Horizons in Parallel 1-12 Months Operational Excellence 1-3 Years Search for Growth Years Creating the Future

9 Global Challenges and Existential Risks

10 Bostrom s Digital Simulation? A Digitized Species With a Global Brain

11 3D / 4D Printing Food Chain Transformation Energy Innovation Robotics / Drones Nanotechnology / Atomically Precise Manufacturing Artificial Intelligence / Conscious Technology A Possibility Explosion from Exponential Science and Technology Developments New Computing Architectures Hyperconnected Internet of Humanity Immersivity / Mixed Reality Living Brain Uploading Healthcare Transformation Human Augmentation Synthetic Biology Blockchain Technology

12 Design Tensions

13 Distribution vs. Consolidation

14 Human vs. Machine Intelligence

15 Control vs. Collaboration

16 Crowd vs. Curiosity

17 Old Money vs. New Finance

18 Enhanced vs. Unenhanced

19 Feminine vs. Masculine

20 Star Wars vs. Star Trek

21 Embracing the Transformative Role of IT Talent: Customer Develop and Centric Leverage Hive Mind Staff Innovate to Differentiate Re-engineer Processes

22 Technology Timeline

23 Our Technologies are Evolving From the Desktop...

24 ...to Portable and Mobile...

25 ...Wearable...

26 ...Embedded...

27 ... And Connected to an Augmented, Immersive Multi-Sensory Internet of Everything

28 Artificial Intelligence

29 The Next Internet AI / 3D / VR / AR / Embedded?

30

31 Everwin Precision Technology 90%+ Robot Factory Guangdong Investing $152bn to Replace Humans With Robots Within Three Years

32 Automation Vs. Smart Machine Augmentation

33 New Knowledge is Enabling Tomorrow s Core Sectors

34 Information and Communications Technology Mobile Internet - Devices, Infrastructure, Commerce, Services Next Generation Intelligent, Personalized Internet Cloud Based Applications, Infrastructure, Services Internet of Things / Internet of Everything / Internet of Humanity Big Data, Data Mining and the Automation of Knowledge AI and Deep Learning Blockchain Systems and Distributed Autonomous Organizations Citizen Services and Domestic Infrastructure Healthcare Innovation - Wellness, Prevention, Diagnosis, and Treatment Elder Care Human Modification / Augmentation / Body Shops Clean Domestic Water and Sanitation Services Smart Homes Smart Devices, Air Con, Waste to Power Green / Electric / Autonomous / Near-Autonomous Vehicles Education Systems Transformation

35 Production and Construction Systems and Technologies Advanced Robotics / Drones 3D/4D Printing and Advanced Materials Genomics and Synthetic Biology Biomimcry Applied to Product Design and Engineered Systems Rapid/Green/Sustainable Construction Industry Transformation Global Infrastructure - Roads, Transport, Energy, Water Automation of Professional Services - E.g. Accounting, Legal, Consultancy, and Architecture Financial Services Technologies New Societal Infrastructure and Services New Food and Agriculture Solutions Sharing / Circular Economy Repurpose, Recycle, Reuse, Repair Smart City Infrastructures and Services Intelligent Transport Systems E-Government Energy and Environment Alternative/Renewable Energy / Storage Advanced Oil/Gas Exploration/Recovery - Including Fracking, Methane Hydrates Geo-Engineering, Climate / Environment Protection, Disaster Recovery / Remediation

36 Magic and Mayhem - Business Strategies, Models and Behaviours

37 Magic E.g. One Time Insurance Smartphone service One day contracts Premiums start around US$4 E.g: Sports and Leisure Golf (Hole in one protection) Domestic and Overseas Travel

38 Assets: Usership vs. Ownership

39 Innovation: e.g. Kickstarter.com

40 Alternative Revenue Models E.g. Auctions $5190 ( 3088) $14,770 ( ) $136 ( 81)

41

42 Blockchain Technology

43 Bitcoin, Blockchain, Smart Contracts and Distributed Accounting Ledgers I m an asset, and I belong to XYC Company, here s a digital signature to prove it.

44 Barbarians at the Gate

45 Aliens in our Midst

46 Rapid Execution e.g. Superfast Construction Ark Hotel - Dongting Lake - China

47 AirBnB Hotels GitHub Software Local Motors Automotive Pursuit of Exponential Growth Quirky Consumer Goods Google Ventures Investments 90x more listings per employee 109x more repositories per employee 1000x cheaper to develop a new car model 5-22x faster to manufacture a car 10x faster product development (29 vs 300 days) 2.5x more investments in early stage start-ups 10x faster through design process Valve Gaming Tesla Automotive Tangerine (formerly ING Direct Canada) Banking 30x more market cap per employee 30x more market cap per employee 7x more customers per employee 4x more deposits per customer

48 Strati First 3D Printed Car (Local Motors)

49 Exponential Market Cap Improvement Age (years) 2011 valuation 2014 valuation Increase Haier 30 $19 billion $60 billion 3x Valve 18 $1.5 billion $4.5 billion 3x Google 17 $150 billion $400 billion 2.5x Uber 7 $2 billion $40 billion 20x AirBnB 6 $2 billion $10 billion 5x Github 6 $ 500 million (est.) $7 billion 14x Waze 6 $ 25 million $1 billion (2013) 50x Qirky 5 $ 50 million $2 billion 40x Snapchat 3 0 $10 billion 10,000x +

50 Business Light / Adoption Agencies

51 Trekkies

52

53 Automation Junkies Decentralized Autonomous Organizations / Software Defined Companies / Corporations as a Technology

54 The Non- Owned Enterprise

55 What Does all this Mean for the City? Delivering Bellevue s City in a Park 2025 Vision 55

56 Vibrant, Liveable and Walkable 56

57 Physically and Digitally Connected

58

59 Nurture a Vibrant and Diverse Business Ecosystem

60

61 Echodyne Radio Antennas (Metamaterials)

62 Drones Plus

63 The Goat Lady

64 Future-Centred Education

65 Cross Cultural Competency Cognitive Load Management Novel and Adaptive Thinking Trans Disciplinarity New Media Literacy Social Intelligence Design Mindset Virtual Collaboration Computational Thinking Sense Making

66 In Tune with Generation Y and Z 66

67 Incubation and Funding e.g. Founder Institute 67

68 Diverse Leisure Propositions

69 The Far Horizon

70 The Simulated Reality Singularity

71 A World of Multiple Actors Robots, Androids, Holograms, Display-based AI Manifestations

72 Intelligent Assistants and Digital Twins

73 Human-Machine Convergence: The Body as a Technology Platform

74 Active Skin Video Tattoos

75 Neurotechnologies and Neurosocial Networks Towards Connected Brains

76 Neural Input / Output Electroencephalography (EEG) / Functional Near-infrared Spectroscopy (Fnirs) / Transcranial Electrical / Magnetic Stimulation (tcs / tcds / tcms) / Coherent (Laser) / Decoherent (LED) Light / Magnetic / Ultrasound / Neural Dust

77 Brain Uploading Exocortex External Faster Brains?

78 A Digital Ethics Treaty?

79 Conclusion Critical Choices Being Behavior Financial Orientation Talent Delivery

80 About Fast Future Forthcoming Events June 16 th The Future of Business - Implications, opportunities and challenges for professional services - London am June 20 th The Future of Business Multi-Author Event London 2-4pm June 23 rd - Dancing with Disruption Special Event - London pm

81 FutureScapes: The Future of Business Edited By Rohit Talwar Launching June % Pre-launch discount Use coupon code rt1 at checkout Find Fast Future Publishing on Facebook, Google+, and LinkedIn

82 Designing Your Future - Key Trends, Challenges and Choices 50 key trends 100 emerging trends 10 major patterns of change Key challenges and choices for leaders Strategic decision making framework Future Scenarios Key futures tools and techniques

83 Reinventing the Airport Ecosystem Drivers of change Science and technology advances Customer expectations Innovation priorities Strategies and business models Surveys to test ideas and scenarios on a global audience Models for managing tomorrows airport ecosystem ces/reinventing_the_airport_ecosystem/i ndex.html?oads=78

84 ILTA Legal Technology Future Horizons Project Key business and legal trends and forces Timeline of emerging technologies and IT developments with high potential legal impact Explores IT s transformative role in future legal business models and service differentiation Defines strategic business and IT imperatives 6 sponsors - combined desk research, interviews with managing partners, CIO s, vendors, futurists and technologists, global surveys on the business applications of IT and emerging technologies emerging technology developments

85 Futurium - Science and Technology Transformations Shaping the World of 2050 European Commission project Examined 87 potential developments and trends Clustered into 11 overarching future societal themes Content identified through a combination of crowdsourcing via the Futurium web platform, suggestions from the EC, and ideas proposed by our team Futurium

86 ACCA / IMA 100 Drivers of Change Identifies 100 drivers of change impacting business and the accounting profession Outlines future scenarios for the accounting function Highlights strategic imperatives for business and the accounting function 5 minutes on executive summary Report:

87 Hotels 2020 Identifying key drivers of change for the globally branded hotel sector over the next decade Examining the implications for: Hotel strategy Brand portfolio Business models Customer targeting Innovation beyond-segmentation.html

88 Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research. Rohit Talwar Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic innovation addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on 5 continents Author of Designing Your Future Profiled by UK s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10 Global Future Thinkers Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications, technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism, environment, food and government sectors Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell, numerous international associations and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore. To receive Fast Future s newsletters please rohit@fastfuture.com

89 Videos of Rohit Exploring the Future The World in Driving Forces, Global Challenges and Potential Disruptions (35 mins) Anticipating Driving forces, global challenges and potential disruptions (30 mins): A World in Transition (60 mins): Future of Travel (22 mins) Parallel Revolutions Impacting Global Labor: Bloomberg TV Interview (4 mins):

90 Useful Sources Genetic profiling - X Prize - Breakthrough innovation projects - Google brain uploading - Brain mapping projects - Global Future 2045 (immortality) Human enhancement - Wearable technology Google Project Glass - Emotiv Epoc Brain-Computer Interface - AI Essay Grading Software - Digital / Crypto currencies Autonomous cars -

91 Contact Information Phone +44 (0) Web Twitter Blog LinkedIn Past presentations Newsletter signup Our current charitable campaigns: Charlotte Talwar's fundraising project to build a new toilet block for Sunrise School Ghana Street Kids International - Helping Street-Active Youth In Ghana Start Businesses

92 Image Sources

93 Image Sources Page number cb /gameofthrones/images/thumb/c/c7/white_walker_2x10.jpg/500px-white_walker_2x10.jpg

94 Image Sources, p 2 Page number cloudfront.net%2f2c%2f8a%2f6b9bc5c248b5b063e6f97e7d58dd%2fresizes%2f1500%2fgame-of-thrones-season-5.jpg

95 Image Sources, p 3 Page number images.atelier.net/sites/default/files/imagecache/scale_crop_587_310/articles/423600/atelier-nouvelle-programmation-informatique.jpg

96 Background Notes

97 Bellevue 2025 Vision Bellevue is one of the outstanding cities in the United States. It is: A City in a Park A dedicated steward of environmental quality, where key natural features are preserved and restored A model of superior urban design and people places A community of diverse and vibrant neighborhoods A city that meets the housing needs of all citizens A regional economic center with a strong and diverse economy A city with a great Downtown viable, livable, and memorable The Eastside s transportation hub, offering an array of mobility choices The center of arts and culture for the Eastside A community that cares for people and families in need A safe and secure community A city served by outstanding facilities and services A leader in meeting regional challenges An active and engaged community City of Bellevue, 2015,

98 A City in a Park Imagine the Year 2025 A mental picture of Bellevue s ideal future, assuming the goals and policies of this Comprehensive Plan are successfully realized: Bellevue s open space network reinforces its reputation as a City in a Park, providing abundant access to the natural environment, continued development of community parks, and newer neighborhood and mini-parks. An extensive waterfront park opens Meydenbauer Bay to Downtown and other parts of West Bellevue and, on the other side of the city, a major park provides swimming and boat access to Lake Sammamish. The city s open spaces are linked with trails and greenways that provide wildlife corridors, pedestrian routes, neighborhood connections, and access to magnificent views of the lakes and mountains. City of Bellevue, 2015,

99 Is Bellevue the new Vancouver? For decades, people have wondered what Bellevue would be when it grew up. Would it simply be an affluent "Greater Seattle" neighborhood? A Twin City, a suburban St. Paul to Seattle's Minneapolis? Would it be the Anaheim of an Eastside Orange County? The San Jose of the Silicon Forest? In the '90s, it was identified as part of a new entity, the Edge City, where under-the-radar urbanization was shaping a new kind of suburban economic powerhouse. The overall picture is of a city that is definitely headed for a postsuburban some place. Crosscut, 5/1/2013,

100 Bellevue to start using 'Next Door' Bellevue city officials will start using "Next Door" to communicate with the community. The online network allows neighbors to exchange information. City agencies like police and fire departments can also post notices for neighborhoods. The city's account with Nextdoor allows it to post notifications and receive responses to notifications. Residents can also send direct messages to the city through Nextdoor. Seattle Police started using next door last month to post crime trends and alerts. K5, 31/5/2015,

101 Bellevue tops Seattle for best cities for millennial job seekers Bellevue bests Seattle for top Washington cities for millennial job seekers, according to an analysis by consumer finance site NerdWallet, that population growing nearly 10.5 percent from 2010 to Seattle still tops Bellevue with a 187,477 millennial population in 2013, but only grew 7.6 percent from 2010 to 2013 and with a 2012 average worker payroll of $62,215. That placed it fourth on NerdWallet's list, just under Bellevue. The millennial population in Bellevue - many seeking or landing tech sector jobs - was at 29,624 or 23 percent in The average worker payroll in 2012 was $77,376. Bellevue Reporter, 26/1/2015,

102 America's 50 best cities to live in Bellevue, Washington Median household income: $91,449 Unemployment rate, 2013: 4.70% Median home value: $507,600 Violent crime per 100,000 residents: Average commuter travel time: 22.6 minutes USA Today, 18/9/2014,

103 America's 50 best cities to live in Located across Lake Washington from Seattle, Bellevue has a very well educated population. More than 64% of adult residents had a college degree, among the highest rates in the nation. Younger residents also benefit from excellent schools that scored extremely well in math. Bellevue is also economically vibrant, with 5% employment growth between 2011 and 2013, as well as just a 4.7% unemployment rate last year. Large employers T-Mobile USA and Expedia are both headquartered in the city, while other major employers include Boeing, Microsoft, and Nordstrom. However, Bellevue also falls on the higher end of the spectrum for cost of living. Homes are expensive, with a median home value of over half a million dollars in 2012, higher than the vast majority of U.S. cities. And while Washington has no state income tax, it has a sales tax of 6.5%, among the highest in the United States. Combined with the local and transit taxes, Bellevue residents pay an effective sales tax of 9.5% on purchases. USA Today, 18/9/2014,

104 Bellevue named best place to live Bellevue has been ranked first on a list of best places to live in the Northwest, compiled by the Movoto Real Estate Blog. Movoto compiled a list of cities in the region with populations greater than 30,000, then compared data on amenities per capita (entertainment and other services), quality of life (a product of cost of living, home and rent prices, income and student-to-teacher ratios), total crimes, tax rates, unemployment, commute time and weather. Bellevue Reporter, 10/19/2014,

105 Google names Bellevue Washington's 2014 ecity Online search and advertising giant Google named Bellevue this year's ecity for Washington on Thursday, recognizing the city's business sector as a leader in ecommerce for the state. This is the second year Google has issued the awards, with Bainbridge Island taking the honor in 2013 for Washington. ecities are selected based on a number of factors related to growing the digital economy. Google states companies with an online presence are expected to grow 40 percent faster than those that don't. Bellevue Reporter, 16/10/2014,

106 The death of the suburban corporate campus? Weyerhaeuser, the multi-national giant, is moving its corporate headquarters from suburban Federal Way to Pioneer Square in downtown Seattle. Much has been made of the game changing impact of this decision on Seattle s First Neighborhood. The significance is not only economic, but cultural and architectural. In Seattle, Amazon saw it coming, and chose to headquarter in South Lake Union rather than some outlying location. Microsoft has already occupied a number of towers in downtown Bellevue. I wouldn t be surprised to learn that it was eyeing the soon-to-be-vacated Amgen Campus for its next big move. Imagine Microsoft on the Beach, with its Redmond campus converted to research and training for global employees. For this region at least, the dramatic move by the Big W represents the end of an era. Crosscut, 2/9/2015,

107 Microsoft now has lots of empty office space in Bellevue for rent thanks to restructuring Microsoft decided to move many of its employees to within Bellevue s City Center, Bravern Towers, and its South Lake Union Offices. Perhaps this move was done to foster a more collaborative spirit within the company. On a more cynical note, maybe the company is preparing for leaner economic times ahead and forced consolidation is a necessity rather than a luxury. Microsoft is said to be planning to vacate Bravern 1 in Bellevue and sublease seven floors worth of office space. Microsoft will be subleasing around 160,000 square feet of office space starting in Sept Microsoft already leases 5 million square feet of space it owns in King County. Microsoft also holds around 10 million square feet of dedicated office space on its Redmond campus. Win Beta, 26/2015,