Infill Housing Opportunities

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1 Infill Housing Opportunities New Smyrna Beach Lisa Dilts March 28,

2 OVERVIEW What is the national and state outlook? Who are the current and projected market audiences? Which groups are most interested in a location like Canal Street and the surrounding area? What are some specific products that have been done? 1

3 RCLCO NATIONAL PERMIT PROJECTION Permits and Household Growth United States, ,500,000 2,000,000 Permits HH Growth ,528 1,250, ,000 1,250, ,000 1,250, ,000 1,250, ,098,0001,250,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Permits Household Growth SOURCE: Moody s Economy.com for , RCLCO for

4 FLORIDA HOUSING STARTS PROJECTED TO SEE A SIZEABLE INCREASE IN Housing Starts (Thousands) Florida 2005 to Housing Starts % Change 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% % Change in Starts % SOURCE: University of Central Florida Center for Economic Competitiveness 3

5 GEN Y AND BABY BOOMERS: LARGEST COHORTS Generation Born 2010 Age 2010 Pop % of Nation Eisenhowers Before M 13% oomers Gen Y (Millenials) Gen Z (?) and After M 26% M 20% M 27% M 14% SOURCES: RCLCO, using Claritas, and National Center for Health Statistics

6 LIFESTAGE INFLUENCES DEMAND Year Student Housing Rental Housing Rent As Couple / 1 st Home Young Family Own Mature Family Own Buy 2nd Home Empty Nester Downsize Own Buy Retire Home 2010 Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Eisen 2015 Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Eisen 2020 Gen Y Gen Z Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y 2025 Gen Z Gen Y Gen Z Gen Y Gen Z Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y

7 NATIONALLY, A LARGE WAVE OF RETIRING BOOMERS IS COMING oomers Estimated Rate of Retirement 2008 to ,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 3,800,000 3,600,000 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 At Age 62 At Age 65 SOURCE: National Center for Health Services, NOTE: Based on an average retirement age of 62 according to the U.S. Census, Age 65 based on MetLife Middle Boomers Survey 6

8 WITHIN THE STATE, THE 55+ POPULATION IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE BY 2.9M PEOPLE FROM 2010 TO 2030 Projected 55+ Population 2010 to ,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000, Population 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, SOURCE: BEBR 7

9 THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REGION IS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE THE LARGEST PORTION OF THE STATE S 55+ GROWTH Projected 55+ Population Growth (Thousands) by Planning Region 2011 to SOURCE: BEBR (2/2012) (Medium-High) 8

OVER 40% OF PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH IN VOLUSIA IS ANTICIPATED TO COME FROM PEOPLE 55+; OPPORTUNITY TO ENHANCE PROJECTIONS WITH HOUSING SUPPLY Projected 55+ Population

10 OVER 40% OF PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH IN VOLUSIA IS ANTICIPATED TO COME FROM PEOPLE 55+; OPPORTUNITY TO ENHANCE PROJECTIONS WITH HOUSING SUPPLY Projected 55+ Population Growth 2011 to ,134 39% 68,167 42% 58,929 32% 212,429 24% Total 55+ Population Growth 55+ Growth as a % of Total Population Growth 102,076 46% 92,878 SOURCE: BEBR 28% 9

11 THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE MARKET IS 45+ YEARS OF AGE Current Household Distribution by Age Canal Street 1, City of New Smyrna Beach, and Volusia County % 20% 15% Canal Street City of NSB Volusia County 10% 5% 0% < Half mile radius around the intersection of Canal Street and US-1 SOURCE: ESRI 10

12 PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THESE HOUSEHOLDS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGEST PORTION OF ALL HOUSEHOLDS Projected Household Distribution by Age Canal Street 1, City of New Smyrna Beach, and Volusia County % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Canal Street City of NSB Volusia County 0% < Half mile radius around the intersection of Canal Street and US-1 SOURCE: ESRI 11

13 STRONG PREFERENCE AMONG ALL AGE GROUPS TO BE WITHIN AN EASY WALK OF PLACES AND THINGS National Survey of Households Preference of Consumers Polled Nationally % % That Indicated Very Or Somewhat Important To Be Within An Easy Walk Of Places And Things In The Community 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: 2011 National Association of Homebuyers 12

14 PREFERENCE FOR LOCATION: NEW SMYRNA TAPS IN TO CITY AND SMALL TOWN PREFERENCE; MAIN STREET National Survey of Households Question: In Which Location Are You Most Likely to Live? City downtown, with a mix of offices, apartments, and shops 18% 13% 7% 5% 4% 3% 3% City more residential neighborhood 14% 12% 11% 8% 11% 8% 15% Suburban neighborhood with a mix of houses, shops, and businesses 26% 34% 28% 24% 27% 32% 30% Suburban neighborhood with houses only 11% 16% 14% 10% 11% 13% 11% Small town 13% 13% 19% 23% 19% 16% 24% Rural area 17% 13% 21% 30% 28% 28% 16% Source: 2011 National Association of Homebuyers 13

15 WHAT THE GENERATIONS ARE LOOKING FOR IN A MAIN STREET ENVIRONMENT BABY BOOMERS: Safety, entertainment, retail, medical services nearby, healthy, convenient, low-maintenance lifestyle Opportunities to make new friends and for recreation GENERATION X: Safe neighborhoods, parks, walkability, convenient to work, shopping Good schools for their school age children GENERATION Y: Have a virtual, wired world co-existing with the physical environment, WiFi everywhere Cool places to hang out where they can text each other fun restaurants and bars

network/grid Aesthetically inspiring architecture, parks, plaza s, streetscapes Walkable Fun Shopping you can t

16 MAIN STREETS THAT APPEAL ACROSS GENERATIONS PROVIDE An environment that facilitates connections Social, religious, institutional, business Gathering spaces Places where community happens Community infrastructure Street network/grid Aesthetically inspiring architecture, parks, plaza s, streetscapes Walkable Fun Shopping you can t find at the mall unique Great neighborhoods a residential component Transit or transit ready The ultimate amenity: convenience

17 GAP BETWEEN CURRENT LOCATION AND PREFERENCE FOR BOTH CITY AND SMALL TOWN National Survey of Households Location: City downtown, with a mix of offices, apartments, and shops % 10% 0% Want Live National Survey of Households Location: Small Town % 20% 10% 0% Source: 2011 National Association of Homebuyers Want Live 16

18 INFILL HOUSING COMES IN A VARIETY OF FORMS; NOT NECESSARILY VERTICALLY INTEGRATED Infill Development: Lifestyle Prompts Trade-off for Greater Density 39 x 75 Lots Baldwin Park, Orlando, FL 27 x 130 Lots Forest Creek, Parrish, FL 45 x 75 Lots Mueller, Austin, TX Low-Rise Condo Flats (Need Elevator) Baldwin Park, Orlando, FL Condos Above Retail; On Main Street Decatur, GA

19 Questions? Lisa Dilts March 28,

The Millennial Generation s Influence on Real Estate Demand

The Millennial Generation s Influence on Real Estate Demand ULI Capital Markets Conference September 29, 2014 Gregg Logan, Managing Director, RCLCO BIG DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL CHANGES Ascent of the Millennial