Bull and Bear Points March 2016

Transcription

1 Bull and Bear Points March 2016

2 Table of Contents Page 3: World Wheat Situation Page 29: US Wheat Situation Page 54: US and World Corn Situation Page 64: US and World Soybean Situation Page 76: February USDA Outlook Conference Page 78: Technical Look at Grain Prices Page 88: Non-Fundamental Factors for Grain Prices Page 102: Summary 2

3 World Wheat Outlook 3

4 World Wheat Production another record year! 4

5 World Wheat Yields Record yields this year 5

6 World wheat harvested area will be interesting to see what this is for

7 World wheat production. China and India produce almost 1/3 of all global wheat. US produces less than 10%. 7

8 World wheat exports. The Big 8 exports almost 90% of all global wheat trade. 8

9 World wheat imports. World wheat is very fragmented! 9

10 Wheat imports by region. Africa and the Middle Ease are almost half of total imports. 10

11 Production has been larger than demand for the past three years 11

12 World wheat feeding is not as large as when the world was tight on corn, but greater than the past few years 12

13 Major exporter wheat production is forecasted to be just below a record in

14 A record crop coming out of Russia/Ukraine/Kazakhstan 14

15 A historic year for wheat exports out of Russia/Ukraine/Kazakhstan 15

16 Ukraine exports are substantially greater than last year. But 2016/17 may be different with a rough fall/winter 16

17 28% of all wheat exports are forecasted to come out of the Black Sea region 17

18 In part due to weak Canadian Dollar vs USD, Canadian exports will again top 20 million MT 18

19 Back-to-back record wheat crops in Europe 19

20 USDA lowered Australia wheat production this month 20

21 Argentine exports are picking up with export restrictions lifted, but quality issues may allow US HRW to move to Brazil later this year 21

22 India went from a large net exporter to potentially a net importer in 2016 which hasn t happened since 2007/08 22

23 Egypt, the largest importer of wheat, is back to importing 11 million MT of wheat after issues the past few years 23

24 World Wheat Stocks/Use Ratio is its highest since

25 Almost 40% of the world s wheat carryout is in China. We will argue these are not available stocks to the world market. 25

26 Looking at World Stocks/Use ratio without China s production/demand/stocks the amount of available wheat is not as abundant as many think 26

27 The amount of carryout is not great in the major exporters, and will argue this is major influencer on world wheat values. Red line is where stocks are tight and market price rations demand 27

28 Re-showing this slide but from a different perspective. The red line represents a 30 million MT drop in production, which would likely mean Big 8 Stocks/Use at 16% (red line on previous slide). This is the risk to watch in

29 US Wheat Outlook 29

30 US wheat production is larger than last year 30

31 US Winter Wheat Acres with prices trading to 2010 levels, the farmer has backed off acres top 2010 levels 31

32 US Spring Wheat Acres will see on March 31st if the Spring Wheat farmer intents to plant less this year 32

33 US wheat yields have been between for eight years, with the last two years on the low end 33

34 US Wheat Exports are forecasted to be the weakest since 1971 that s a LONG time ago!!!!!!!!! 34

35 With wheat yields and domestic wheat demand rather flat the big movers to S/D is acres and exports 35

36 The pace of weekly US wheat exports is below. The last few months have been extremely slow. 36

37 As the US acting more like the last resort exporter, you can see only when there are problems in Europe that the US exporter program to Egypt is active 37

38 US wheat exports have lost market share to Nigeria the past few years 38

39 With quality issues in Argentina, the US may see a small pick-up on HRW exports to Brazil this marketing year 39

40 With huge wheat stocks in China, their imports from the US and the world will only be about sourcing high protein HRS, which is typical 40

41 Even with low wheat prices, wheat feeding is not significant due to low feedgrain prices 41

42 US wheat demand is its lowest in almost 40 years 42

43 US Wheat carryout is rather significantly large 43

44 US Wheat Stocks/Use ratio is forecasted to be just under 50% 44

45 You have to go back to the 1980 s and the days of government owned storage to when the US wheat carryout was this large 45

46 We are swimming in HRW 46

47 It has been dry the past month in Hard Red Winter Wheat area. This is something to watch. 47

48 We are swimming in Spring Wheat 48

49 While the quality is questionable of the SRW carryout, we have excess of it 49

50 White Wheat is the one class that is not burdensome 50

51 Durum stocks are building 51

52 HRW premiums are much lower than two years ago, but not like 2010 when the S/D was similar 52

53 Spring Wheat premiums are on the low end of recent history 53

54 Corn Outlook 54

55 US corn exports are facing stiffer competition from Argentina/Brazil/Ukraine 55

56 US corn exports down again this year due to foreign competition 56

57 Chinese corn stocks have changed dramatically since the mid 2000 s 57

58 With large corn stocks in China, a large corn import program does not look likely in the foreseeable future 58

59 The world has its largest carryout in over ten years 59

60 Corn yields in the US were the second best ever 60

61 Three straight excellent years of corn production in the US after a disastrous

62 US corn demand has been roughly 13.5 billion bushels for the past three years 62

63 Stocks of corn have been building the past three years after having to ration demand in

64 Soybean Outlook 64

65 Brazil is forecasted to harvest more acres than the US for the first time this year 65

66 Fourth consecutive year of record world soybean production 66

67 Large South American soybean crop 67

68 Large soybean exports are projected this year out of Brazil 68

69 Almost 2/3 of every soybean that is exported is headed to China. 25% of all world beans grown get exported to China. 69

70 Crush demand continues to move higher the past few years. 70

71 World Stocks/Use are in the middle-to-high end of the past several years 71

72 Record yields this year in US soybeans 72

73 US soybean production just broke last year s record production 73

74 Record US crush is forecasted this year but exports are forecasted ti be quite a bit lower than a year ago 74

75 Back-to-back record US soybean crops have the carryout away from tight situations for the first time in 10 years 75

76 February USDA Outlook Conference First Look at 2016 Acres 76

77 Wheat acres are forecasted to be their lowest in well over 40 years and almost ½ of the acres in

78 Corn acres are forecasted to increase slightly from last year 78

79 Soybean acres are forecasted to be similar to the past two years 79

80 Technical Look at Grain Prices 80

81 Looking at the significant rallies of the past 20+ years in Kansas City wheat. Many are multi-year events. 81

82 Looking at the significant moves of the past 5+ years in Kansas City wheat. Russia and currencies have been major inputs. 82

83 Weekly Chicago Wheat 442 long term provided long term support. 465 support will now act as resistance. 83

84 Weekly KC Wheat Watch the 465 resistance trendline. 84

85 Weekly Minneapolis Wheat 485 support level has held. 500 resistane has been taken out. Look for resistance at

86 Weekly Corn 349 support line has held again 86

87 Weekly Soybeans The support line at 892 is now providing resistance 87

88 Non-Fundamental Factors for Grain Prices 88

89 Dollar Index. After the move in 2014, the Dollar has been sideways in a large range. 89

90 Same Dollar Index chart as before just longer time horizon. The Double-top is at the Dollar s highest levels in 14 years 90

91 Chicago wheat in blue. Euro/Dollar in black. There is a strong correlation between Dollar strength and US wheat weakness. 91

92 Crude Oil is blue. Euro/Dollar in black. The strength in the Dollar has pressured all commodities. 92

93 Speculator is a record short in Chicago. 93

94 Speculator is a record short in Kansas City. 94

95 Speculator is short Minneapolis wheat, which does not occur often. 95

96 Combining all three futures exchanges the speculator is short over 1 billion bushels that is ½ the US wheat crop! 96

97 The continued liquidation of passive longs by the investment community 97

98 Speculator is short a historic amount of corn 98

99 Speculators is short a historic amount of soybean futures 99

100 Monthly Chicago Wheat Corn futures spread. In wheat was needed to feed due to lack of corn. Not the case now. 100

101 Monthly Kansas City Wheat Corn futures spread. In wheat was needed to feed due to lack of corn. Not the case now. 101

102 Summary 102

103 Bull/Bear Inputs and Risks Ahead Bullish factors Bearish factors Risks ahead Large speculative short positions in grains US farmer planted less Winter Wheat than expected does the same happen in corn/beans/spring Wheat? Ukraine and India are in rough shape, a lack of snow cover in several areas make winterkill risk higher than normal US wheat stocks are extremely large, especially HRW and HRS Strong Dollar makes US wheat uncompetitive in the world market, even with lowest futures in 6 years With a 950+ million bushel carryout, it will take two years of problems to get the US wheat to tight Weather HRW has been dry in the western areas for the past 30 days India how much will they import in 2016? How bad is Ukraine production? What does the USDA say for acres March 31 st? 103

104 Ardent s Thots on the Markets The market continues to feel the effects of a large carryout and a strong Dollar keeping US wheat out of significant trade flows. This is why futures are low. Looking forward, the USDA will publish one of the largest reports of the year later this month Quarterly Grain Stocks update, and Prospective Plantings. With low prices in all commodities, farmers do not have the same alternatives of the past few years when there was high prices in some or all grains. They are all low today. It does appear that the acreage pie may shrink, and the places that acres can go away is more in the fringe areas where acres grew the past 10 years. Wheat acres are in those areas where acres can go back to government set-aside programs or other alternatives. We would not be surprised to see wheat acres down as the February outlook conference forecasted. Looking forward the growing season is starting, and we would expect volatility to increase. There are areas to monitor (US HRW, India, Ukraine) and spring crops weather will also start getting focused on. With the speculator holding historic positons, there is much more upside than downside to futures prices. In the next few slides, we have attempted to demonstrate the upside probabilities to US wheat futures. 104

105 Upside probabilities in Chicago Wheat futures 105

106 Upside probabilities in Kansas City Wheat futures 106

107 Upside probabilities in Minneapolis Wheat futures 107

108 Thank you for your business! If you have any questions/comments, please feel free to contact (kevin.pray@ardentmills.com) or (kyle.sieren@ardentmills.com) 108