The New Archway. Activate. Connect. Enrich. Morgan Even, Max Fallowfield, Oran Harrison, Brian Wallace and Yasmine Wazzi. BENVGUR4: March 2013

Transcription

1 + The New Archway Activate. Connect. Enrich. Morgan Even, Max Fallowfield, Oran Harrison, Brian Wallace and Yasmine Wazzi BENVGUR4: March 2013

2 +! Archway: the Backdrop! Justification! SWOT Analysis! Project Vision and Aims! Proposed Interventions! Investment Cost & Funding Proposal! Delivery Vehicle The New Archway: Overview! Beyond Physical Regeneration! Conclusion

3 + Site Location 5 th most deprived Borough in London, 14 th most deprived local authority nationally.

4 + The Project Site The Gyratory Hamlyn House Archway Tower (59m) Leisure Centre Hill House

5 + The Project Site- Aerial View

6 + Vacant and Rapidly Deteriorating Buildings

7 + Underused and Unwelcoming Public Spaces

8 + Physical Barriers and Illegibility

9 + Archway Town Centre Overview! Both the London Plan and Islington s Core Strategy seek to strengthen and promote the role of Town Centres in London, yet both acknowledge that Archway Town Centre is currently failing and in need of regeneration.! Islington s 2012 Town Centre Health-Check found that Archway was the worst performing of all of Islington s Town Centres in almost all categories, with the report also highlighting the very low quality and legibility of the built environment and levels of street crime.! A strategic location with high footfall, but extremely poorly performing with potential that is very hard to realise.

10 + Previous and Current Proposals! Numerous master-planning sessions previously and a number of proposals put forward but with no progress due to financing issues, community pressures and failure to get key stakeholders to agree and engage.! Tesco attempted to implement a super-store led scheme on the site but was forced to abandon this due to considerable community pressure against a large retailer dominated scheme. Plans to convert Hamlyn House into a Premier Inn: planning application now submitted to Islington, who informed us that the hotel application is supported in principle. Potential S106 contributions from this scheme calculated and utilised in our regeneration project.

11 + SWOT Analysis Strengths! Strong policy framework in support of regeneration! Strong transport links: underground and bus! Active local community supporting regeneration! Core site contains well used community buildings! Strong sense of identity endowed by the thriving local arts sector Opportunities! Harness the spending power of the people who travel through the area everyday and the creation of employment opportunities for local people! Possibility to provide improved community facilities (improved library and sport centre), training facilities and to reduce street crime levels! Potential to relocate the nearby Holloway Road market and resuscitate Archway Town Centre. Weaknesses! Complex public/private land ownership issues! Poor quality environment lack of functional public open space with visual and noise pollution! Site dominated by brutalist, vacant and run-down buildings and wind turbulence (caused by tower)! Gyratory: hampers free movement of pedestrians reducing footfall into Archway Close and ensuring car dominated.! Lack of cultural, retail and evening uses Threats! Unrealistic/unviable local authority and community demands for regeneration preventing the fruition of schemes! Competing priorities for the Borough so financial resources may be limited and if buildings remain vacant this will pose a risk to local traders with the local economy declining further! High crime in the area and accidents caused by the gyratory, with the danger of further deterioration.

12 + Designing a new solution..! As mentioned, previous proposals failed as there was a lack of communication between stakeholders.! led to proposals which were more theoretical as they did not look seriously at financing and the viability of proposals.! lack of public leadership! Need a solution that would be acceptable to the Council, the Property Owners and other local stakeholders.! We ve envisioned ourselves to be a consultancy group hired by this stakeholder group to draft a proposal that would answer to all the priorities of the various groups but, more importantly, is feasible and financially viable.

13 + Project Vision The vision of the New Archway is to create a new town centre for the area that is:

14 + Strategic Objectives The core strategic objectives of the New Archway are to:! Create a mix of day and nighttime uses! Increase pedestrian access/permeability! Construct mixed-tenure housing! Provide high quality community facilities! Decrease levels of road traffic! Provide high quality open space

15 + Current Site Plan

16 + Proposed Site Plan

17 + PROJECTS: The Plazas

18 + PROJECTS: Mews Housing! Mixed Tenure Housing! Refurbished Listed Buildings! Small-Scale Retail/ Cafés! Increased Permeability

19 + PROJECTS: Hill House! Relocated Library! Expanded Leisure Centre/Community Facilities! Retail/Restaurants! Mixed Tenure Housing! Recladding

20 + PROJECTS: Hamlyn House! New Hotel! Recladding! Small-Scale Retail! Social Housing

21 + PROJECTS: Archway Tower! Small-Business Incubator Units! High-End & Market Apartments! Ground Floor Retail/ Restaurants! Recladding

22 + PROJECTS: The Gyratory

23 + Costing Methodology! Construction work:! per square metre for residential (depending on quality and refurbishment vs. new build)! Roughly 1050 per square metre for office space refurbishment! per square metre for retail (depending on refurbishment vs. new build)! Average 2200 per square metre for leisure (restaurants and cafes)! for new communal facilities (community centre and library)

24 + Costing Methodology! Construction work:! per square metre for residential (depending on quality and refurbishment vs. new build)! Roughly 1050 per square metre for office space refurbishment! per square metre for retail (depending on refurbishment vs. new build)! Average 2200 per square metre for leisure (restaurants and cafes)! for new communal facilities (community centre and library)! 10% contingency added! Average 8% on extra fees (consultants, engineers, architects etc..)! Planning permission cost (calculated according to sqm coverage of building and planned use)! Community Infrastructure Levy: 300 per square metre! Mayoral CIL ( 50 per square metre)! Islington CIL (forecast to be around 250 per square metre)

25 + Costing (1) COMPONENT COST PER SQM SQM COVERAGE TOTAL COST FUNDING ARCHWAY TOWER MEDIUM SALE FLATS - REFURB (33) LUXURY SALE FLATS - REFURB (17) OFFICE SPACE - REFURB RECLADDING TOTAL 9,292, contingency 10% 929, ,221, CIL 1,440, ,661, application fee 24, ,685, other fees 817, ,503, VALAD + PARTNERS

26 + Costing (1) COMPONENT COST PER SQM SQM COVERAGE TOTAL COST FUNDING ARCHWAY TOWER MEDIUM SALE FLATS - REFURB (33) LUXURY SALE FLATS - REFURB (17) OFFICE SPACE - REFURB RECLADDING TOTAL 9,292, contingency 10% 929, ,221, CIL 1,440, ,661, application fee 24, ,685, other fees 817, ,503, VALAD + PARTNERS SOCIAL HSG - REFURB (16) MEDIUM RENT FLATS - REFURB (16) RECLADDING HILL HOUSE TOTAL 5,130, contingency 10% 513, ,643, CIL 375, ,018, application fee 15, ,033, other fees 451, ,485, LAZARI + PARTNERS

27 MEDIUM RENT FLATS- NEW BUILD (30) SOCIAL HSG - NEW BUILD (10) MEWS HOUSING SOCIAL HSG - REFURB (8) GR FL RTL - REFURB GR FL RTL - NEW BUILD TOTAL 6,816, SEVERAL OWNERS contingency 10% 681, ,497, CIL 829, ,327, application fee 21, ,348, other fees 5,998, ,346, GR FL RTL - NEW BUILD GR FL RESTAURANTS - NEW BUILD ARCHWAY TOWER BASE TOTAL 1,738, VALAD, LAZARI + contingency 10% ,912, PARTNERS CIL 338, ,251, application fee 6, ,257, other fees 153, ,410, COMMUNITY CENTRE LIBRARY LEISURE CENTRE TOTAL 1,662, S106 & ARTS contingency 10% ,829, COUNCIL FUNDING application fee ,836, other fees 146, ,982, GYRATORY REMOVAL PUBLIC SPACE WORKS (INCLUDING GREEN GYRATORY: PAID PUBLIC REALM SPACE) BY TFL/ PUBLIC TOTAL 4,069, SPACE PAID FROM contingency 10% ,476, S106 other fees 358, ,834, GR FL RTL - REFURB , SOCIAL HSG - NEW BUILD (10) ,440, TOTAL 1,513, HAMLYN HOUSE contingency 10% ,664, LAZARI? CIL 27, ,692, application fee 4, ,697, other fees 133, ,830, GR FL RTL - NEW BUILD , SOCIAL HSG - NEW BUILD (17) ,998, TOTAL 2,303, HOLLOWAY RD BLDGS contingency 10% 230, ,534, TFL CIL 83, ,617, application fee 8, ,625, other fees 202, ,828, DEMOLITION WORKS ARCHWAY MALL , LAZARI + OTHER MEWS , OWNERS TOTAL 170,440.00

28 + Costing (4) TOTAL WORKS COST 32,696, CONTINGENCY 3,252, CIL 3,095, APPLICATION FEES 86, OTHER FEES 8,260, GRAND TOTAL 47,391,115.08

29 + Costing (4) TOTAL WORKS COST 32,696, CONTINGENCY 3,252, CIL 3,095, APPLICATION FEES 86, OTHER FEES 8,260, GRAND TOTAL 47,391, COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE COUNCIL LEVY (ISLINGTON) 2,509, % PAYMENTS CIL (MAYOR) 501, %

30 + Costing (5) LEISURE/COMMUNITY ARCHWAY BASE, 1,738, PUBLIC WORKS + GREENWAY, 69, HOLLOWAY ROAD, 2,303, DEMOLITION WORKS, 170, CENTRE, 1,662, HAMLYN HOUSE, 1,513, HILL HOUSE, 5,130, MEWS HOUSING, 6,816, GYRATORY REMOVAL, 4,000, ARCHWAY TOWER, 9,292,000.00

31 + Implementation Schedule planning permission construction ready for occupancy HAMLYN HOUSE LEISURE/COMMUNITY CENTRE HAMLYN HOUSE (EXT) HILL HOUSE ARCHWAY TOWER GYRATORY REMOVAL MEWS HOUSING HOLLOWAY ROAD GROUND FLOOR PLAZA PUBLIC WORKS + GREENWAY DEMOLITION

32 + Cost by Year TOTAL HAMLYN HOUSE LEISURE/COMMUNITY 207, , , CENTRE 1,662, HAMLYN HOUSE (EXT) HILL HOUSE ARCHWAY TOWER GYRATORY REMOVAL MEWS HOUSING HOLLOWAY ROAD ARCHWAY BASE PUBLIC WORKS + GREENWAY DEMOLITION WORKS 189, , , ,513, ,420, ,710, ,130, ,646, ,646, ,292, ,000, ,000, ,452, ,363, ,816, , ,151, , ,303, , , ,738, , , , , , TOTAL 397, ,758, ,291, ,576, ,384, , ,696, % 5% 41% 42% 10% 1%

33 + Cost by Year 45.00%" 40.00%" 35.00%" 30.00%" 25.00%" COST DISTRIBUTION BY YEAR" 20.00%" 15.00%" 10.00%" 5.00%" 0.00%" 2014" 2015" 2016" 2017" 2018" 2019"

34 + Cost-Benefit Analysis! Revenue estimation based on:! Sale of residential units per square metre (-15% of area for ancillary uses)! 20,000 grant on social housing units (61 units /158 = 38.8%)! Rent of office, retail and leisure facilities per square metre + average rate of 3% inflation applied yearly

35 HOLLOWAY ROAD construction other costs grant on affordable units rent of retail space YEAR TOTAL CASH FLOW LEISURE CENTRE construction cost PUBLIC SPACE + demolition construction cost other costs revenue YEAR TOTAL CASH FLOW ARCHWAY TOWER construction other costs sale of luxury units sale of medium rent units rent of office space YEAR TOTAL CASH FLOW HILL HOUSE construction other costs sale of market units affordable units grant YEAR TOTAL CASH FLOW ARCHWAY TOWER BASE construction other costs rent of retail units YEAR TOTAL CASH FLOW MEWS HOUSING construction other costs sale of market units grant on affordable units rent of retail units YEAR TOTAL CASH FLOW HAMLYN HOUSE construction other costs grant on affordable units rent of retail space YEAR TOTAL CASH FLOW

36 + Cost-Benefit Analysis! Revenue estimation based on:! Sale of residential units per square metre (-15% of area for ancillary uses)! 20,000 grant on social housing units (61 units / %)! Rent of office, retail and leisure facilities per square metre + average rate of 3% inflation applied yearly YEAR TOTAL -716,586-2,840,445-17,659,266-11,947,362 14,681,513 11,820,355 3,084,289 2,773,433 2,856,636 2,942,335 3,030,605 CASH FLOW -716,586-3,557,032-21,216,298-33,163,660-18,482,147-6,661,793-3,577, ,071 2,052,565 4,994,900 8,025,505

37 + Cost-Benefit + Loan Analysis What if the Archway Town Centre LLC decided to take out a loan to finance the project?! Assume a loan of 30m (Loan to Cost (LTC) ratio of about 63%)! Estimated interest rate of 6%! Let s say we take the loan in 2014 to finance the works, pay back over 3 years ( 1,800,000 each year)! In 2018, first sales from Archway Tower and Hill House are made and loan of 30m is repaid.

38 + Cost-Benefit + Loan Analysis What if the Archway Town Centre LLC decided to take out a loan to finance the project?! Assume a loan of 30m (Loan to Cost (LTC) ratio of about 63%)! Estimated interest rate of 6%! Let s say we take the loan in 2014 to finance the works, pay back over 3 years ( 1,800,000 each year)! In 2018, first sales from Archway Tower and Hill House are made and loan of 30m is repaid YEAR TOTAL (no loan) -716,586-2,840,445-17,659,266-11,947,362 14,681,513 11,820,355 3,084,289 2,773,433 2,856,636 2,942,335 3,030,605 CASH FLOW (no loan) -716,586-3,557,032-21,216,298-33,163,660-18,482,147-6,661,793-3,577, ,071 2,052,565 4,994,900 8,025,505 LOAN 30,000,000-1,800,000-1,800,000-1,800,000-30,000,000 YEAR TOTAL (LOAN) 29,283,414-4,640,445-19,459,266-13,747,362-15,318,487 11,820,355 3,084,289 2,773,433 2,856,636 2,942,335 3,030,605 CASH FLOW (LOAN) 29,283,414 24,642,968 5,183,702-8,563,660-23,882,147-12,061,793-8,977,504-6,204,071-3,347, ,100 2,625,505

39 + Cash Flow+ Loan Analysis 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000, CASH FLOW (NO LOAN) CASH FLOW (LOAN) -10,000,000-20,000,000-30,000,000-40,000,000

40 + Loan Analysis NO LOAN! Initial Investment of: 47,391,115.08! Return of: 55,416,620.14! Return on Investment (ROI): 16.93%! Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 6.76%

41 + Loan Analysis NO LOAN! Initial Investment of: 47,391,115.08! Return of: 55,416,620.14! Return on Investment (ROI): 16.93%! Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 6.76% LOAN! Initial Investment of: 47,391, ,000,000 = 17,391,115.08! Return of: 55,416, ,000,000-5,400,000= 20,016,620.14! Return on Investment (ROI): 15.10%! Internal Rate of Return (IRR): 14.56%

42 + Financial Monitoring! Returns in reality would be higher! Figures are currently modest estimates! They account for all components including the removal of the gyratory and the expanded Community Centre (no calculated returns)! A cost consultant would be necessary for a more accurate analysis. These figures would be necessary to ensure no cost overrun! Each developer would need to carry out their own analysis based on their properties to determine their ROI and IRR.! It would be necessary to monitor the various outflows and inflows on a quarterly basis to ensure full accountability and transparency.! This could be done through financial updates by each actor to the Archway Town Centre LLC.

43 + Delivery Mechanism! Requires innovative scheme:! Large site would benefit from consolidation! Multiple land owners and actors! Diverse expectations from Borough and developers! Need to ensure consistency, especially in public realm! Help share profitability amongst components

44 + Archway Town Centre LLC! Delivery mechanism for site:! A joint venture equity finance entity! Each actor is shareholder based on square metres of development! Tied to council-adopted Master Plan for site! Long-term ownership stake not a build-to-sell investment! Profits shared as revenues generated! Actors retain ownership but obligated to shared maintenance

45 + Archway Partnership! Organisation made up of:! Developer/property owners! Archway Close businesses! Transport for London! Borough of Islington! Better Archway Forum! Whittington Estate residents! UCL/Whittington Hospital! Civic/religious leaders

46 + Archway Partnership! Organisation made up of:! Developer/property owners! Archway Close businesses! Transport for London! Borough of Islington! Better Archway Forum! Whittington Estate residents! UCL/Whittington Hospital! Civic/religious leaders! Responsible for:! Community consultation! Ongoing construction updates! Resident placement! Job programmes/training! Public plaza event programming! Archway Market stalls oversight! Marketing and promotion

47 + Beyond Physical Regeneration: Securing Social and Economic Outcomes for the Local Community! Learning from the current experimental context to town centres urban regeneration in the UK! Need for specific policies that ensure that physical improvements will translate into new jobs and amenities for local residents and workers in Archway

48 + Renew Perceptions of Archway: Animate the Site Before and During Construction Works! Launch a website to communicate and consult with the local community! Set up a Project House in one of the site s empty shops Physical space available for meetings and consultations Training space for future local workers on the construction site (S106) Gathering place for local community groups wishing to benefit from potential meanwhile uses

49 + Making Durable Gains for the Local Community: Social capital! Turn the Project House into a community centre Meeting space for local community groups, artistic and cultural activities Training space for longer-term job opportunities in the New Archway centre Base for temporary events and animations, regular or temporary

50 +Making Durable Gains for the Local Community: and economic solidarity! Develop collaborations between the community centre, new office spaces, and the library: shared facilities and resources for the business community! Co-working spaces for start-ups in Archway tower! Variety of retailers on the ground level! Encourage the evening economy All changes will be reflected in Town Centre Health Check..

51 + Conclusion We see the potential of the site to be one which is at the heart of Archway one that is a place for people to live, work and socialise. Through this proposal which addresses the needs of the various stakeholders in a financially viable way, we hope to transform Archway s standing in London.