Presented to Floodplain Management Association September 3, Presented by
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1 Presented to Floodplain Management Association September 3, 2014 Presented by
2 Palo Alto Flood Basin Operational Model Storm Surge Impacts Sea Level Rise Impacts Adaptive Response
3 Palo Alto Flood Basin Santa Clara
4 Created in 1956 Designated wetland preserve in acres Flood protection ring levees tide gates Muted tidal habitat Interior runoff from 31.5 mi 2 watershed
5 Adobe/Barron Creek
6 Matadero Creek
7 Matadero Creek Bypass
8 Coast Casey Pump Station
9 Palo Alto Flood Basin
10 Tide Gate Structure
11 Mayfield Slough
12 Unsteady HEC-RAS
13 31.5 square mile watershed Adobe Creek Barron Creek Matadero Creek Coast Casey Pump Station HEC-HMS Model 72-hour statistically balanced storm AMC calibrated to USGS floodfrequency analyses Matadero Creek Gage San Franciscquito Creek Gage Base flow from February 1998 hydrographs
14 100-year Discharge (cfs) Matadero Inflow Adobe Inflow CCPS Inflow Landfill Inflow PAFB
15 Tide Elevation (feet NGVD) Design Tide Six-Hour Increments
16 PAFB 1% WSEL (feet NGVD) Water Surface Elevations in PAFB with 1974 Design Tide Time (hours)
17 (Feet Relative to MLLW) Storm Surge Has Profound Impact on Tide Elevations LOW TIDES MATTER! Observed WL Predicted WL Obs.-Pred /31 0:00 2/01 4:00 2/02 8:00 2/03 12:00 2/04 16:00 2/05 20:00 2/07 0:00 Date and Time (1998)
18 P x,y = P x y P y Tides during day of peak annual discharge LLW LW HW HHW Tide at Presidio 1,2 Tide at Presidio 1,2 Gage Stream- LLW LW HW HHW Gage Stream- LLW LW HW HHW Water Water Date Height flow (feet) (feet) (feet) (feet) Date Height flow (feet) (feet) (feet) (feet) Year Year (feet) (cfs) (feet) (cfs) 1932 Dec. 27, , Jan. 16, , Jan. 27, Feb. 22, , Feb. 26, Jan. 13, , Apr. 08, , Jan. 29, Feb. 21, , Jan. 04, , Feb. 04, , Jan. 26, , Mar. 13, , Nov. 24, , Feb. 08, Feb. 08, , Feb. 27, , Feb. 17, , Feb. 11, , Feb. 13, , Nov. 18, , Jan. 17, Mar. 14, , Mar. 25, Dec. 07, , Feb. 16, Mar. 19, Mar. 26, Feb. 27, Feb. 12, , Dec. 22, , Jan. 13, , May. 18, , Feb. 19, Apr. 02, , Jan. 09, , Feb. 16, Feb. 04, , Feb. 08, , Jan. 02, , Nov. 26, Feb. 03, , Mar. 05, Feb. 07, , Jan. 31, , Feb. 13, , Jan. 21, Feb. 22, Dec. 23, , Dec. 02, , Dec. 28, Dec. 16, , Jan. 21, , Jan. 01, , Jan. 30, , Dec. 30, Jan. 26, , Dec. 31, ,
19 Joint probabilities for each point of tide cycle at Presidio
20 Tide Elevation (feet NGVD) Translate Coincident Tides from Presidio to Mayfield Slough Verified Six-Minute Tide Data Recorded by NOAA at Redwood City Station High-Low Tide Data Recorded by NOAA at Golden Gate Station, translated to Redwood City Station /2/1998 0:00 2/3/1998 0:00 2/4/1998 0:00 Date and Time of Day (PST)
21 Tide Elevation (feet NGVD) Design Boundary Condition at PAFB year Tide Time (hours) Coincident 100-year Tide Cycle Mean Higher High Tide Tide Recorded Feb 2-3,1998
22 Tide Elevation (feet NGVD) Coincident Storm Surge Tide Compared to Original Design Tide /2 (12AM) 2/2 (6AM) 2/2 (12PM) 2/2 (6PM) 2/3 (12AM) 2/3 (6AM) 2/3 (12PM) 2/3 (6PM) 2/4 (12AM) Date and Time of Day in 1998 (PST) Updated Design Tide Observed Tides 1974 Design Tide
23 PAFB 1% WSEL (feet NGVD) Water Surface Elevations in PAFB Affected by Storm Surge Time (hours) 1974 Design Stage
24 PAFB 1% WSEL (feet NGVD) Water Surface Elevations in PAFB Affected by Storm Surge Time (hours) 1974 Design Stage Coincident Tide
25 PAFB 1% WSEL (feet NGVD) Random Process of Timing of Interior Runoff with Tide Tidal Shift (hours) PAFB Max Elevation PAFB Elevation at Matadero Creek 42.5 hours PAFB Elevation at Adobe Creek 41 hours
26 Maximum 1% PAFB Elevation (feet NGVD) Random Process of Timing of Interior Runoff with Tide Non-exceedance Probability, %
27 National Research Council (2012) Time Period Low Range SLR (feet) High Range SLR (feet) California Climate Change Center assumes that all tide datums, e.g. mean high tide and flood elevations, will increase by the same amount as mean sea level. (2009)
28 Sea Level Rise Impacts PAFB Water Surface Elevations SLR Scenario Sea Level Rise (feet) 100-year Coincident Tide (feet NGVD) Maximum PAFB Stage (feet NGVD) Existing n/a Low Low High Low High High
29 Maximum PAFB Elevation (feet NGVD) Sea Level Rise Impact on PAFB Stage Nonexceedance Probability, % PAFB Elevation for 2100 PAFB Elevation for 2050 PAFB Elevation for 2030 PAFB Elevation Current Tides
30 Additional Discharge Capacity Add Storage Volume SLR Scenario SLR (feet) Maximum PAFB WSEL (feet NGVD) Triple Gates Increase Storage 25% Both Existing Low Low High Low High High Baseline WSEL = 7.41 feet NGVD
31 Max 1% PAFB WSEL (feet NGVD) Pumping 2,500 cfs required to maintain current maximum 1% WSEL against 2100 high range SLR tide (300 cfs pump station ) (low) 2030 (high) 2050 (low) 2050 (high) 2100 (low) Pumping Capacity (cfs)
32 Pumping 2,500 cfs required to maintain current max WSEL against 2100 high range SLR (300 cfs pump station )
33 Presented to Floodplain Management Association September 3, 2014 Presented by
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