BONNES PRATIQUES D ACCOMPAGNEMENT VERS ET DANS L EMPLOI

Transcription

1 Conseil d Orientation pour l Emploi 5 Janvier, 2016 BONNES PRATIQUES D ACCOMPAGNEMENT VERS ET DANS L EMPLOI Stefano Scarpetta Director for Employment, Labour, Social Affairs OECD

2 MOTIVATION : WHY IT IS KEY TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE AND SUPPORT TO WORKERS IN TRANSITION?

3 Motivation Reallocation of factors of production Important role in driving productivity growth Labor reallocation painful for affected workers because of search and other adj. costs Pace of reallocation: Technological and market driven factors + institutions and regulations 3/34

4 What do we know? Sizeable firm dynamics entry and exit of firms involving 8-10% of employment Continuous adaptation of existing businesses Reallocation important for productivity growth and mobility of workers to better jobs 4/34

5 What do we know? (cont.) Market conditions play a major role in shaping magnitude and characteristics of job flows. Small businesses more dynamic Some industries inherently more dynamic 5/34

6 Policy and institutions affect the pace and effectiveness of labour reallocation Technological and market factors are coupled by regulations in driving job flows Start-up costs and bankruptcy procedures affect firm turnover and associated labor mobility Employment protection legislation may stifle labour reallocation by raising adjustment costs but asymmetric reforms with large gaps in protection between permanent and temporary/fixed-term contracts create inefficient flows with large welfare losses. 6/34

7 Large job turnover in all countries Firm dynamics plays a major role in total job flows Job Creation Manufacturing Job Destruction Manufacturing ARG BRA CHI COL DEU EST FIN FRA GBR HUN ITA LAT MEX PRT SLN USA 0.00 ARG BRA CHI COL DEU EST FIN FRA GBR HUN ITA LAT MEX PRT SLN USA Total Continuers Entrants Total Continuers Exiters

8 mirrored by even larger worker flows Gross worker reallocation, line 30 ISL TUR Separations (%) FRA POL SWE NOR DEU CHE AUT PRT BEL CZE SVN HUN SVK GRC ITA GBR NLD IRL DNK USA CAN FIN ESP Hirings (%) 8

9 more important for youth Worker reallocation by age class Mean 70 %

10 and the least educated Worker reallocation by educational attainment Low Medium High Mean 70 %

11 The rate of job reallocation declines with size of the firm 0.6 Total Economy Time averages, 1989 onwards 0.6 Total Economy Time averages, 1989 onwards Job Reallocation < Size Class USA DEU FIN FRA ITA PRT Job Reallocation < Size Class USA ARG MEX 0.6 Total Economy Time averages, 1989 onwards 0.6 Total Economy Time averages, 1996 onwards Job Reallocation Job Reallocation < Size Class < Size Class USA EST HUN LAT SLN USA EST HUN LAT SLN

12 but small and large firms contribute the most to job flows Composition of the overall job reallocation by size: Highest share of manufacturing jobs created/destroyed/reallocated by large firms (100+) Second most important size class: micro firms (1-19) 12

13 Gains from job/worker reallocation are unequal Average wage premia to job change, % 6% *** 5% 4% *** *** 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% * -3% Job change Voluntary job change Involuntary job change Job-to-job transition * Job-to-jobless transition 13

14 Skill demand is polarising: the demand for routine mid-level skills has declined markedly Percentage change in employment shares Abstract (high-skill) Routine (middle-skill) Non-routine manual (low-skill) 0 Note: Abstract occupations (ISCO88: 12-34); Routine (ISCO88: 41-42, 52, 71-74, and 93); Nonroutinemanual (ISCO88: and 91). The overall sample restricted to workers aged 15-64, excluding employers as well as students working part-time. Source: OECD (May 2015) In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All 14/34

15 Many workers suffer wage penalties as a result of misalignment between skills and job requirements Under-qualification Over-qualification % % Source: PIAAC Survey of Adult Skills (2012) Sweden Canada France Netherlands England/N. Ireland United States Australia Japan Average Korea Italy Slovak Republic Germany Spain % Under-skilling Over-skilling /34

16 PROVIDE GUIDANCE ON THE CHOICE OF FIELD OF STUDY

17 Youth unemployment has reached very high levels in some OECD countries % Percentage of youth (aged 15-29) in the labour force, Peak Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Labour Force Statistics. 17/34

18 Low educated youth are much more likely to be unemployed than their counterparts Percentage of youth (aged 15-29) in the labour force, 2013 or latest available % Less than upper secondary education Upper secondary education tertiary education Notes: 2011 for Chile. Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Education. 18/34

19 Two in five workers hold jobs that are unrelated to their field of study Percentage of workers mismatched by field-of-study 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012). 19/34

20 Good practices in providing guidance on choice of field of study Guidance should be provided by experienced personnel rather than teachers Good quality guidance requires appropriate training Teachers may be biased towards academic subjects, perpetrating selection-by-failure practices for VET education Guidance should be based on sound knowledge and understanding of labour market needs, particularly at the local level Most countries have systems in place to assess existing and future skill needs but results are often not fully used to inform guidance; Data on unemployment, wages and working conditions by occupation are also key for students to make informed decisions Skill needs at the local level are particularly relevant as students making choices should be aware of the potential need to move to other areas to find work in their field after graduation Guidance should stress the importance of soft skills as well as job specific knowledge Students should be aware of the importance of skills such as communication, team-work, self-organisation; While school can foster the acquisition of these skills, work-based learning within a learning programme or as work experience during holidays is essential to ensure that youth are well-prepared for the labour market when they leave education

21 ACTIVATION STRATEGY TO SUPPORT THE UNEMPLOYED AND THOSE AT RISK OF LOSING THE JOB

22 Activation strategies to facilitate the re-integration of the unemployed Mainstream tools and services Targeted programmes and services Support for all jobseekers Jobseekers with of longer U-spell Initial interviews JS with barriers Individual action plan PES vacancy website Counselling interview(s) Career advice Which are the most successful counselling strategies? Additional counselling interviews Requirements to expand job search Direct referrals Training or work experience programmes Special support for health problems Subsidies for employers/ Direct job creation Profiling tools to identify JS with additional barriers 22/34

23 An example: Swedish approach to support displaced workers During , 2.1% of employees with at least one year of tenure lost their job due to economic reasons Some groups are particularly vulnerable to displacement Low skilled workers Younger workers On average, during the period , around 85% of displaced workers were re-employed within one year but average annual earnings fall by approximately 4-5% in the 4 years after displacement 23/34

24 Key features of the early intervention to support at risk or just displaced workers in Sweden A sound ability to anticipate and manage restructuring Early intervention to provide employment support before dismissal takes place Tailored employment support for different types of displaced workers provided by Job Security Councils to complement government assistance This results in prompt and efficient early action facilitated by the social partners 24/34

25 Challenges of the Swedish model Some workers are excluded from tailored support of the job security councils (JSCs) Fixed-term and temporary workers Youth and vulnerable groups Many who qualify for support receive only partial services Blue collar workers receive only limited support PES fails to deliver timely and tailored training to workers who cannot access JSC services The PES mostly caters for difficult-to-place unemployed people 25/34

26 BUILDING SKILLS, BUT ALSO USING THEM AND ADAPTING THEM DURING THE WORKING LIFE

27 Many individuals still lack the literacy skills needed to thrive in todays labour markets Japan Finland Netherlands Australia Sweden Canada Average Korea England/N. Ireland (UK) Denmark Germany United States France Spain Italy 1,2 0,0 2,3 1,9 0,0 0,9 1,2 0,3 1,4 0,4 1,5 4,2 0,8 0,8 0, Level 2 Level 1 Below Level 1 Level 3 Level 4/5 No information Percent Source: PIAAC Survey of Adult Skills (2012) 27/34

28 Life-long learning is essential to upskill and re-train workers but those most in need participate less 28/34

29 Inequalities in training participation also hold by age and educational attainment By workers age Participation in formal or informal training, by age and educational attainment Percent of working adults (excludes year olds in initial education) By educational attainment These patterns hold within PIAAC participating countries highlighting potential future inequalities in labour market outcomes and creaming effects. Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), Less than secondary Secondary Tertiary

30 Skills use in the workplace should not be forgotten: unused skills are lost Skills use at work reflects primarily the distribution of workers across occupations (job requirements) but proficiency and qualifications matter too (workforce competences) It is an important mechanism to further develop skills and avoid their obsolescence and depreciation Other things equal, skills use is: Lower for the least skilled Lower for workers on fixed-term contracts and temporary workers Lower for part-timers than full-timers ICT use at work is lower for youth than older counterparts at work (but higher at home) Firm size matters for skills use, with larger firms using the skills of their workforce more efficiently, all things equal 30/34

31 Countries differ in extent of skill use, independently of proficiency Average numeracy scores and average skill use levels 295 Numeracy proficiency scores (left axis) Numeracy use (right axis) 2, , , , , , , , , Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), /34

32 The determinants of skill use are varied but HR policies play a crucial role Predicting skills use Percentage of variance in skills use accounted for by Industry HRM Use of numeracy at work different factors Occupation Skill proficiency Use of reading at work Use of writing at work 3,0 2,6 2,2 1,8 1,4 1,0 Average skill use and firm size Cross-country average frequency of the use of writing and problem solving skills at work 1-10 employees employees employees employees employees Writing at work Problem solving Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), 2012.

33 Ensuring a balance between the supply and demand for skills can help reduce wage inequality Wage inequality is lower in countries that are better at matching skill demand and supply This suggests a key role for the assessment and anticipation of future skill needs: Most (if not all) countries have some sort of skill assessment or anticipation exercise BUT it is not clear whether and how these exercises inform policy intervention: education, labour market and migration policy AND barriers remain, including: i) results are often provided in forms that are of difficult interpretation (or limited use) for policy makers; ii) key stakeholders are not fully engaged; and iii) information is not properly disseminated. Need to promote effective social dialogue to build adequate skills and improve their use in the labour market and their adaptation during the working life

34 Thank you Survey of Adult Skills: OECD work on skills: skills.oecd.org OECD work on youth: OECD work on employment: 34/34