Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts
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1 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts May 2016 Research Services Department
2 Foreword This report reviews recent trends in inflation and presents the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. The analysis is based on trends in short-term domestic demand and supply indicators as well as imported inflation. These factors inform the assumptions for the shortterm inflation forecasting model Monthly Inflation Sub-Index Model (MISI). Table of Contents 1.0 Review of Outturn Factors underpinning the revised forecast Trends in demand Trends in supply Import prices Trends in Core Inflation Revised Forecast Summary and Conclusion 9 Appendices 10 Tables and figures Figure 1: Trend in monthly inflation 1 Figure 2: Regional Inflation 1 Figure 3: Inflation Contribution 2 Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand 3 Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales 4 Figure 6: International Commodity Prices 5 Figure 7: Core Inflation (12-month change) 6 Figure 8: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart 8 Figure 9: Trends in selected agriculture production 10
3 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts 1.0 Review of Outturn For May 2016, there was inflation of 0.2 per cent, in comparison to 0.5 per cent for May 2015 and average inflation of 0.6 per cent for May of the last five years. Given the May 2016 outturn, annual point-to-point inflation was 2.1 per cent, below the 4.0 per cent as at May 2015 and 2.4 per cent as at April Figure 1: Trend in monthly inflation The outturn for May 2016 was below the average for the month for the last 5 years. Inflation for May 2016 was recorded in all three regions with the largest average increase in prices occuring in the Other Urban Centres (OUC). The OUC region recorded the largest level of increases in regards to Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (FNB) and Transport (TRAN), relative to the other two regions. The increase in FNB was mainly attributed to an increase in vegetables and starchy food in the OUC region relative to deflation in that category of food in the GKMA and RA regions. TRAN rose as a result of increases in the cost for petrol and air travel. Figure 2: Regional Inflation May 2016 Research Services Department 1
4 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts Inflation in May 2016 was primarily driven by increases in TRAN and HWEG arising from upward movement in global crude oil prices. The rise in TRAN largely reflected increases in the cost for petrol and air travel. An increase in electricity rates was the main contributor to the upward movement within the division HWEG. Figure 3: Inflation Contribution Inflation for May 2016 primarily reflected increases in the cost of petrol, air travel and electricity rates. Blue bars = positive and Red bars = negative MIS= Miscellaneous Goods & Services, R&A=Restaurants & Accommodation Services, ED=Education, R&C=Recreation & Culture, COM=Communication, TRAN= Transport, HLTH=Health, FHERM=Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance, HWEG=Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels, C&F=Clothing & Footwear, ABT=Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, FNB=Food & Non- Alcoholic Beverages Source: STATIN May 2016 Research Services Department 2
5 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts 2.0 Factors underpinning the revised forecast 2.1 Trends in demand Two of the three major indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ accelerated for the review period. For the three months ended May 2016, the 12-month average of the real value of debit and credit card transactions rose by 4.9 per cent while PAYE receipts increased by 1.9 per cent for the three months ended April 2016 (Figure 5). However, the real value of imports is estimated to have decelerated by 1.2 per cent for the three months to May Two of the three indicators of domestic demand monitored by the BOJ increased. Figure 4: Short-term Indicators of Demand May 2016 Research Services Department 3
6 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts 2.2 Trends in supply For May 2016, data gathered from RADA indicated that the supplies of starchy foods and vegetables were mainly in line with or above seasonal levels. In this regard, the prices of these commodities declined marginally relative to the previous month. RADA s projection for June 2016 suggests that the supply of both starches and vegetables were anticipated to be largely in line or above seasonal levels. The survey carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MOA) however, indicates that agricultural commodity prices are expected to rise in June Similarly, the Consumer Affairs Commission s (CAC) price survey suggests that domestic agricultural commodity prices will increase in June. Domestic agriculture commodity prices declined slightly in May 2016 relative to the previous month. RADA s most recent information suggests that supplies of vegetables and starchy food are forecasted to increase in July relative to the previous month. The 12-month average trend in industrial electricity sales, used as a proxy for industrial production increased at a slower pace in May 2016 relative to the same measure three months prior (see Figure 6). Figure 5: Industrial Electricity Sales The indicator of industrial productivity decelerated in May May 2016 Research Services Department 4
7 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts 2.3 Import prices The average price of crude oil increased by 13.8 per cent to US$46.80 per bbl. in May 2016 relative to April The increase in prices was mainly attributed to: (i) the market s response to Goldman Sachs upward revision to its price forecast for 2016 (ii) a decline in the number of active U.S. rigs, and (iii) data from China s National Bureau of Statistics which emphasized an increase in refinery demand for April The average price of crude oil increased by 4.4 per cent to US$48.85 per bbl. in June 2016 relative to May Crude oil prices trended upwards as the market responded to: (i) reports that Nigerian output had contracted by 65,000 bbls per day following militant attacks on crude oil pipelines, (ii) the Energy Information Administration s upward revision to its short-term price forecast in a context of higher global demand and a faster than anticipated contraction in excess supply, and (iii) news that Chinese crude oil imports rose to a six-year high in May Figure 6: International Commodity Prices Oil prices increased in both May and June May 2016 Research Services Department 5
8 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts For May 2016, the grains price index increased by 3.1 per cent. This increase primarily reflected a rise of 9.6 per cent and 2.8 per cent in rice and corn, respectively. This rise was partly offset by a decline of 4.9 per cent in the price of wheat. The grains prices index increased in May 2016 and June For June 2016, the grains price index rose by 1.7 per cent. This increase primarily reflects increases of 6.5 per cent and 1.9 per cent in corn and rice, respectively. This increase was partly offset by a decline of 0.2 per cent in the price of wheat. 2.4 Trends in Core Inflation For May 2016, all three monthly measures of core inflation were generally unchanged relative to the previous month. CPI without Food and Fuel, CPI without Agriculture and Fuel (CPI-FF) and the Trimmed Mean were unchanged at 0.1 per cent, 0.1 per cent and 0.0 per cent, respectively relative to the previous month. At end-may 2016, two of the three annual point-to-point measures of core inflation were unchanged. CPI-AF and CPI- FF were unchanged at 2.8 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively. However, the TRIM measure decelerated to 2.2 per cent compared to 2.4 per cent in April Two of the three measures of annual core inflation were unchanged for May 2016 relative to the previous month. Figure 7: Core Inflation (12-month change) May 2016 Research Services Department 6
9 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts 3.0 Revised Forecast For June 2016, inflation for the month is expected to primarily reflect increases in FNB, TRAN and HWEG. FNB is expected to increase primarily as a result of a rise in agricultural prices. HWEG and TRAN are anticipated to reflect increases in the price of crude oil as well as the effect of upward adjustment to SCT on petrol. For July 2016 inflation is projected to largely result from an increase in FNB as a result of higher agricultural prices. Further upward pressure is expected to emanate from increases in HWEG and TRAN. Price impulses may also emanate due to seasonal demand. For August, inflationary impulses should largely result from an increase in TRAN. Additionally, inflationary pressures should emanate from an increase in agricultural prices. Headline inflation for FY2016/17 is anticipated to fall within the target range of 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent. Inflation for FY2016/17 is forecasted to fall within the target range of 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The overall risks are viewed to be marginally skewed to the upside over the next four quarters (see Figure 8). The main upside risks to the inflation forecast are higher than anticipated exchange rate depreciation and pass through, stronger than anticipated growth in monetary aggregates, worse than anticipated weather conditions, higher than anticipated international grain and oil prices and stronger than anticipated domestic demand conditions. The major downside risks include the lower than projected international commodity prices, better than anticipated impact of developments in the Agro-parks on domestic agriculture supply and weaker than expected demand conditions. May 2016 Research Services Department 7
10 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts Figure 8: Monthly Inflation Fan Chart May 2016 Research Services Department 8
11 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts 4.0 Summary and Conclusion For May 2016, there was inflation of 0.2 per cent which was primarily driven by increases in TRAN and HWEG. The rise in TRAN largely reflected increases in the cost for petrol and air travel. An increase in electricity rates was the main contributor to the upward movement within the division HWEG. For June 2016, upward pressure is expected to primarily reflect increases in FNB, TRAN and HWEG. FNB is expected to increase primarily as a result of a seasonal rise in agricultural prices. HWEG and TRAN are anticipated to reflect increases in the price of crude oil as well as the effect of upward adjustment to the SCT on petrol. For July 2016, inflationary pressure should primarily reflect an increase in FNB as a result of higher agricultural prices. Further upward pressure is expected to emanate from increases in HWEG and TRAN. Price impulses may also emanate due to seasonal demand. For August, inflationary impulses should largely result from an increase in TRAN. Additionally, inflationary pressures should emanate from an increase in agricultural prices. Inflation for fiscal year 2016/17 is projected to be within the target range of 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent. May 2016 Research Services Department 9
12 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts Appendices Figure 9: Trends in selected agriculture production May 2016 Research Services Department 10
13 Short term Inflation Analyses and Forecasts May 2016 Research Services Department 11
14 Table 1A JAMAICA: HEADLINE INFLATION RATES Jun / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD C.P.I AVG. C.P.I % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun / December 2006 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: STATIN Page 1 of 14
15 Table 1B JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT FOOD AND FUEL Jun / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD CPI-FF Avg.CPIFF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun /January 2000 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: BOJ Page 2 of 14
16 Table 1C JAMAICA: CPI WITHOUT AGRICULTURE AND FUEL Jun / 3 Month Monthly 3 mth* 3mth# 12 Month* 12 Month# FYTD CYTD CPI-AF Avg.CPIAF % change % change % change % change % change % change % change Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun /January 2000 = 100 * Point to Point # Moving average Source: BOJ Page 3 of 14
17 Table 2 Regional Inflation Jun-MTH GKMA OUC RA Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%) 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 4 of 14
18 Table 2 Regional Inflation Jun-QTR GKMA OUC RA Inflation(%) Inflation(%) Inflation(%) 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENANC Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 5 of 14
19 Table 3A Component Contribution to Inflation Jun Weight in Monthly Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 6 of 14
20 Table 3B Inflation Comparison Jun-MTH & 2016 Weight in the CPI MTH MTH 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 7 of 14
21 Table 4A Component Contribution to Inflation Jun-QTR Weight in Quarterly Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 8 of 14
22 Table 4B Inflation Comparison Jun-QTR & 2016 Weight in the CPI QTR QTR 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 9 of 14
23 Table 5A CYTD Component Contribution to Inflation Jan-Jun Weight in CYTD Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 10 of 14
24 Table 5B CYTD Inflation Comparison Jan-Jun & 2016 Weight in the CPI CYTD CYTD 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 11 of 14
25 Table 6A FYTD Component Contribution to Inflation Apr-Jun Weight in FYTD Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTE Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 12 of 14
26 Table 6B FYTD Inflation Comparison Apr-Jun & 2016 Weight in the CPI FYTD FYTD 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTENA Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 13 of 14
27 Table 7 Annual Component Contribution to Inflation Jun Weight in Annual Weighted % Contrib'n the CPI Inflation(%) Inflation to Inflation 01 FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and Cereals Meat Fish and Seafood Milk, Cheese and Eggs Oils and Fats Fruit Vegetables and Starchy Foods Vegetables Starchy Foods Sugar, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery Food Products n.e.c Non-Alcoholic Beverages Coffee, Tea and Cocoa Mineral Waters, Soft Drinks, Fruit and Vegetable Juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR Clothing Footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS & OTHER FUELS Rentals for Housing Maintenance and Repair of Dwelling Water Supply and Miscellaneous Services Related to the Dwelling Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT & ROUTINE HOUSEHOLD MAINTEN Furniture and Furnishings (inc. Floor Coverings) Household Textiles Household Appliances Glassware, Tableware and Household Utensils Tools and Equipment for House and Garden Goods and Services for Routine Household Maintenance HEALTH Medical Products, Appliances and Equipment Health Services TRANSPORT COMMUNICATION RECREATION & CULTURE EDUCATION RESTAURANTS & ACCOMMODATION SERVICES MISCELLANEOUS GOODS & SERVICES ALL DIVISIONS Page 14 of 14
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