Inflation. Inflation increases. Monthly Inflation. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research. April 16, 2014

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1 ly Inflation CPI inches up () 1 1 Components of CPI Particulars Weights CPI Food & bev Fuel & light Housing Clothing Miscellaneous WPI inflation up 102 bps () Components of WPI Particulars Weights WPI Primary Articles Fuel & Power Manuf.Goods Seasonal trend Particulars Weights CPI Food & bev Fuel & light Housing Clothing Miscellaneous WPI Primary Arti Fuel & Power Manuf.Goods Analyst s name Kajal Gandhi Sheetal Ashar April 16, 2014 Inflation CPI... up to 8.3 from 8.1 YoY WPI... up to 5.70 from 4.68 YoY Inflation increases Key readings Both CPI at 8.31 and WPI at 5.70 came in closer to market expectations moving up from 8.1 and 4.68, respectively While core CPI stayed firm at 7.8, core WPI got elevated to 3.5 from 3.1 in the previous month. Inflation in food component firmed up to ~9 both at the retail as well as wholesale level Seasonally, both the CPI and WPI indices rose ~0.5 after having declined for three consecutive months Core CPI moderates to 7.8 but seasonal trend of 0.5 increase intact Core CPI (weight: 40.8) slowed to 7.82 after having been sticky at 8. Transport (weight: 7.6) moderated to 5.89 leading to the moderation. Inflation in most other services has remained firm. Also, the seasonal trend of 0.50 increase has been intact Food and beverages inflation firmed up to 9.08 majorly led by 11 increase in milk (weight: 7.7) and 16 increase in price of cereals (weight 14.6). Concerns over El Niño affecting monsoons may prevent any sharper fall in food prices in the near months until more clarity emerges. Last time when the monsoon was affected food inflation had jumped to double digits CPI rural stood at 8.89 while CPI urban stood at 7.51 against 8.51 and 7.55 in the previous month Fuel and light inflation was sticky above 6 with housing near 10. Both components have not undergone any sizeable moderation While the higher base effect may bring headline CPI inflation readings lower, RBI has acknowledged it and said, It is critical to look through any transient effects, including these base effects, which could temporarily soften headline inflation during Hence seasonal trend will also need a close watch to clearly understand the price pressure Core and headline WPI both accelerate WPI inched up 102 bps to 5.70 as fuel & core inflation accelerated to & 3.23 vs. 8.7 & 2.76, respectively in the previous month Core WPI (weight: 55) got elevated on a waning high base. The recent fall in global commodity prices along with a stable rupee may provide some cushion However, the seasonal component of food article (weight: 14.34) may see some pressure as vegetable prices trough while fruits continue to become dearer. LPG prices were reduced ~13 in March last year, which led to adverse base in the fuel index (weight: 14.91) Inflationary concerns mount The RBI in its first bi-monthly policy said There are risks to the central forecast of 8 CPI January 2015 stemming from a less-than-normal monsoon due to possible El Nino effects; uncertainty on the setting of minimum support prices for agricultural commodities and setting of other administered prices, especially of fuel, fertiliser and electricity; the outlook for fiscal policy; geo-political developments and their impact on international commodity prices. We believe these concerns may keep inflation expectations high in the near term. Therefore, we do not anticipate any rate cut by the RBI until the first half of FY15. We expect WPI to average ~5.5-6

2 and CPI to average ~7-8 in FY15 on assumption of a normal monsoons and a gradual growth recovery. As long as CPI continues along the intended descending glide path of 8 CPI inflation by January 2015 and below 6 CPI by January 2016, further policy tightening in the near term is also not anticipated. Exhibit 1: Retail inflation down CPI inflation headed up as fruits and milk became dearer while vegetable price troughed The Urjit Patel Committee has indicated a glide path for disinflation that sets an objective of below 8 CPI inflation by January 2015 and below 6 CPI inflation by January Unless monsoon plays a spoilsport we may see CPI continuing on the glide path Combined Rural Urban Core CPI moderated to 7.8 but still remains high Exhibit 2: Components of CPI Wheat crop has been affected in three states - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra on account of rain, hailstorm and wind as reported by the Agriculture Commissioner. Prices, therefore, may firm up till late April by which time the new produce reaches the markets. Cereals have a weightage of 14 in the CPI index. Hence, any increase may halt the moderation seen in food inflation According to the second Advance Estimates, India's Rabi crop food grain production is estimated at around 135 million tonnes (MT) during , which may not materialise due to uncertain rains. The Rabi crops foodgrain production may fall to 115 MT against estimates of 135 MT in Food & beverages Fuel & light Housing Clothing & bedding and footwear Core CPI Exhibit 3: CPI Inflation in services still high Core CPI (CPI excluding food and fuel) marginally slowed to 7.8 from 8.11 on account of a moderation in the transport and communication component Inflation in all other service likes education, medical care, personal care, etc. has remained firm Medical Care Education Recreation Transport Personal Care Households Source: CSO, ICICIdirect.com Research Page 2

3 Exhibit 4: WPI inflation bottoms out Inflation surged across all major groups. Core inflation accelerated at a more rapid pace primarily on an unfavourable base WPI (LHS) Food Articles Manufactured Goods(LHS) Fuel Group Exhibit 5: Seasonal decline in veggies done Exhibit 6: Core inflation inches up on waning high base Vegetable Food Inflation Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Exhibit 7: LPG prices dropped in March-May last year leading to unfavourable base Jan-13 Fuel group Mineral Oils LPG Electricity Source: Bloomberg, CSO, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 8: Global commodity prices soften last month; give some cushion Core inflation Rupee Depreciation(LHS) IMF Metal Price Index Source: Bloomberg, IMF, ICICIdirect.com Research Page 3

4 Retail prices jumped an average 9.5 in FY14. Food inflation averaged 11 with core inflation at 8 WPI accelerated 102 bps at a pace which was higher than market expectation Seasonal decline in price of vegetables seems to have halted. However, fruits have become dearer by 16 YoY Further concerns over El Niño disrupting monsoon and thereby affecting crops may keep the food price decline in check Exhibit 9: CPI - Breakdown by components ( YoY ) Average Weights FY14 Cereals Pulses Oils&Fats Egg meat fish Milk condiments & spices Vegetables Fruits Sugar Non alcholic beverages Prepared meals Pan tobacco & intoxicants Food & beverages Fuel & light Housing Clothing & bedding footwear Medical Care Education Recreation Transport Personal Care Households Miscellaneous CPI Core CPI Exhibit 10: WPI - Breakdown by components ( YoY ) Weights Jan-13 FY14 FY13 WPI Primary Articles Fuel & Power Manufactured Goods Source: CSO,ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 11: Primary articles - Breakdown by components ( YoY) Weights Jan-13 FY14 FY13 Primary Articles Food Articles Food Grains & Cerelas Rice Wheat Pulses Fruits & Vegetables Milk Eggs, Meat & Fish Spices Non-Food Articles Fibres Oil Seed Minerals Page 4

5 Exhibit 12: Fuel group - Breakdown by components ( YoY) Globally, oil prices are expected to decline due to an expected rise in non-opec supplies and possible recovery from outages in Opec nations. This should keep market determined fuel price lower Budgetary proposal with respect to fuel subsidies may be closely watched to determine the changes in administered fuel price. We expect a gradual increase in diesel price to continue Weights Jan-13 FY14 FY13 Fuel Group Coal Mineral Oils Controlled Fuel : LPG Kerosene High Speed Diesel Market determined fuel : Petrol Aviation Turbine fuel Light Diesel Oil Bitumen Furnace Oil Lubricants Electricity The waning base effect may lead to higher reading of core inflation in the coming months. However, a lag effect of monetary tightening and a stable rupee may contain core inflation Exhibit 13: Manufactured goods - Breakdown by components ( YoY) Weights Jan-13 FY14 FY13 Manufactured Goods Food Products Manufacturing Ex Food Beverages & Tobacco Textiles Wood & Wood Products Paper & Paper Products Leather & Leather Products Chemicals & Chemical Products Non-Metallic Mineral Products Basic Metals Machinery & Machine Tools Transport, Equipment & Parts Page 5

6 Fruits became dearer by 5 along with vegetables after having seen a double digit correction in consecutive months and have now firmed up. This led to a pause in the seasonal decline in food articles inflation Exhibit 14: WPI month on month () Weights WPI Primary Articles Food Articles Non-Food Articles Minerals Fuel & Power Coal Mineral Oils Electricity Maufactured Products Food Products Mfg.Products (Ex food) Beverages & Tobacco Textiles Wood & Wood Products Paper & Paper Products Leather & Leather Products Chemicals & Chemical Products Non-Metallic Mineral Products Basic Metals Machinery & Machine Tools Transport, Equipment & Parts Seasonal trend of 0.50 increase in the core CPI remains intact Exhibit 15: CPI month on month () Weights CPI Cereals Pulses Oils&Fats Egg meat fish Milk condiments & spices Vegetables Fruits Sugar Non alcholic beverages Prepared meals Pan tobacco & intoxicants Food & beverages Fuel & light Housing Clothing & bedding footwear Medical Care Education Recreation Transport Personal Care Households Miscellaneous Core CPI Page 6

7 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai Disclaimer The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities Ltd (I-Sec). The author may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. I-Sec may be holding a small number of shares/position in the above-referred companies as on date of release of this report. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This report may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. I- Sec and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. I-Sec may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject I-Sec and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Page 7

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