Oregon Employment at New Highs. We Moved Beyond Recession! SAIF Seminar May 7, 2015

Transcription

1 Oregon Employment at New Highs. We Moved Beyond Recession! SAIF Seminar May 7, 2015

2 Record Employment Levels.

3 Key Facts from March s News Release Oregon s unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent Lowest rate since April 2008 The U.S. rate was 5.5 percent Last time Oregon s rate was lower than nation s was in 1996 Nonfarm payroll jobs increased 4,300 Close to the average monthly gain over the last 12 months Employment was up 56,100 (3.3%) over the year Oregon s job growth continues to outpace the U.S. The sector adding the most jobs in March was health care and social assistance.

4 There are fewer unemployed people in Oregon. That means there s less competition for the available jobs.

5 Oregon s unemployment rate is at its lowest level since April 2008 and is below the U.S. rate for the first time since January Oregon's Unemployment Rate Can Drop Below U.S. (Bars Represent NBER Recessions) % in November and December % in April and May Oregon United States Source: Oregon Employment Department and National Bureau of Economic Research

6 Unemployment rates have fallen in most areas of the state, but the rates in rural areas are generally well above those in urban areas Oregon Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates Percent of Labor Force Non-metro All Other Metro Areas Combined Oregon Portland Area 0.0 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Source: Oregon Employment Department, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

7 The states low overall average is impacted heavily by the northwest counties. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was lowest in Benton County (4.4%) and highest in Grant County (9.7%). Harney County saw the largest improvement over the year with a drop of 3.6 percentage points. Higher Rates in Southern and Central Oregon Counties Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates, March 2015 Eleven of Oregon s 36 counties have rates at or below the statewide level of 5.4%. Unemployment Rates 4.4% to 5.4% 5.5% to 6.9% 7.0% to 8.3% 8.9% to 9.7%

8 The number of unemployed Oregonians is essentially back to pre-recession levels. 250, , ,000 Unemployed Persons, Oregon Statewide Seasonally Adjusted, 2005 to Present Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment: Lowest April 2007: 95,000 Highest May 2009: 237,000 Current March 2015: 106, ,000 50,000 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15

9 Most unemployed Oregonians didn t lose their jobs. They either left their job or have recently started looking for one. 160,000 Oregon Unemployment by Reason [Trend] 140, ,000 Entrants Job Leavers Job Losers 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Oregon Employment Department, CPS

10 While Portland may have relatively low unemployment rates, it s important to remember it has a lot of unemployed people. 120,000 Number of Unemployed by Area (Seasonally Adjusted) 100,000 Number of Unemployed 80,000 60,000 40,000 Portland Area All Other Metro Areas Combined 20,000 Non-Metro 0 Source: Oregon Employment Department, Local Area Unemployment Statistics 10

11 Not only are there far fewer unemployed Oregonians There are many more jobs and job openings.

12 Context: the recession s job losses were awful; the recovery time was painful. Oregon Employment Loss by Recession 0% % Job Loss from Peak Employment -2% -4% % % % Dec. Forecast Source: -12% Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, December Number of Years from Employment Peak

13 But we made it. We finally regained the number of jobs lost during the recession. Percent Job Losses Relative to Peak Employment Month 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% -9.0% 147,500 jobs were lost. Percent of Job Losses in Oregon Since Peak in December 2007 Regained the jobs by November Number of Months After Peak Employment

14 It took five years of job gains to add back the number of jobs lost during the recession. 1,800,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Total Nonfarm Payroll: ,700,000 1,600,000 Employment 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 Employment has finally surpassed pre-recession peak and is up 169,200 jobs since the low point in January ,200,

15 The private sector was the driver of our growth. 1,500,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Total Private Sector: ,400,000 Employment 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 Private sector employment has surpassed the prerecession peak and is now 168,600 above the January 2010 recessionary low of 1,292,700. 1,000,

16 Health services continues to see strong job growth. Employment 230, , , , ,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Private Health Care and Social Services: Over the year: Ambulatory: +3,600 Hospitals: +1,800 Nursing and residential: +2,300 Social assistance: +2, ,

17 Professional and Technical Services includes a huge variety of firms: accounting, veterinarian services, computer systems design. 90,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Professional and Technical Services: ,000 80,000 Employment 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,

18 Construction employment has improved since the recession s low but remains far below pre-recession levels. 110,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Construction: ,000 90,000 Employment 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,

19 Manufacturing is a relative success story in Oregon especially in the Portland area. 240,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Manufacturing: ,000 Employment 200, , ,

20 Almost all components of manufacturing have shown growth. Oregon Manufacturing Employment Compared with Last Year March 2014 to March 2015 Wood products 0 Primary metals 200 Fabricated metals 200 Machinery 300 Computer and electronic products 1,100 Transportation equipment 800 Food manufacturing 1,200 Paper manufacturing ,000-1,500-1, ,000 1,500 2,000

21 As we showed with unemployment rates, economic conditions vary widely from urban to rural areas. 120 Employment Levels Relative to 2001 Portland Area, Other Metro Areas, and Combined Non-Metro Counties Nonfarm Payroll Employment Index (2001=100) Albany, Bend, Corvallis, Grants Pass, Eugene, Medford, and Salem Portland- Vancouver- Hillsboro Oregon Non-metro Oregon Source: Oregon Employment Department, Current Employment Statistics

22 Most regions are seeing strong job growth, but growth is slower along the Coast and in Eastern Oregon. 4.5% Over-the-Year Nonfarm Payroll Employment Change by Region March 2014 to March 2015, Not Seasonally Adjusted 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Central Southern Willamette Valley Portland 5 Eastern Coast

23 So are these new jobs low-wage, low-skill or highwage, requiring lots of education or?

24 The answer: Oregon is adding all kinds of jobs right now. And many require education beyond high school. Oregon Job Growth and Average Pay by Industry Mar Mar Job Growth, 2014 Average Pay Professional and business services Health care and social assistance $47,729 $60,590 Manufacturing Leisure and hospitality Retail trade Local government Transportation, warehousing, and utilities State government Financial activities Construction Wholesale trade Private Educational services Other services Information Federal government $64,000 $18,660 $28,000 $47,651 $47,519 $47,469 $59,582 $53,322 $63,468 $34,078 $29,125 $70,640 $69,777 Mining and logging $50,259 Source: Oregon Employment Department -2, ,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 Over-the-Year Job Change

25 Job gains are evening out across low-, mid-, and high-wage industries, but only lower-wage industries have regained all the jobs lost. Oregon Private-Sector Job Loss and Job Growth* 2008 Recession * three years and three quarters of recovery; seasonally adjusted 3Q2009-2Q2014 1Q2007-3Q ,011 55,396 Higher-wage industries $ $43.74/hr -62,022 53,113 Mid-wage industries $ $20.69/hr -79,943 88,390 Lower-wage industries $ $12.10/hr -100,000-80,000-60,000-40,000-20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000 Source: Oregon unemployment insurance wage records Net Change in Number of Jobs

26 Job growth is expected to continue.

27 Oregon was forecasted to regain our pre-recession peak level of employment in early Strong job growth in October and November got us there earlier. 2,000,000 1,900,000 Oregon Nonfarm Payroll Employment Quarterly History & Projection, st Quarter 2015 (return to peak) Total Nonfarm Employment 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1st Quarter 2010 (low point) 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000, :1 1992:1 1994:1 1996:1 1998:1 2000:1 2002:1 2004:1 2006:1 2008:1 2010:1 2012:1 2014:1 2016:1 Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative Services, March 2015

28 Job growth is expected in all major industries Expected Job Changes by Industry Sector Over The Year (1Q Q 2016) Professional and Business Services Retail Trade Leisure and Hospitality Health Care and Social Assistance Financial Activities Local Government Construction Wholesale Trade Other Services Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Metals and Machinery Other Durables Other Nondurables Wood Products Private Educational Services State Government Computer and Electronics Transportation Equipment Mining and Logging Food Manufacturing Federal Government Source: OED analysis using OEA Forecast, March ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

29 Competition for Workers.

30 Businesses need workers. Half of them say they re having a difficult time finding workers to fill their current vacancies.

31 Oregon had roughly 39,400 vacancies in Winter Snapshot of Oregon Job Vacancies Winter 2015 Vacancies 39,359 Average Hourly Wage $17.53 Full-time Positions 68% Permanent Positions 89% Requiring Education Beyond High School 24% Requiring Previous Experience 70% Difficult to Fill 49% Surveyed 2,700 private employers with two or more employees Found highest average wage since the quarterly Oregon Job Vacancy Survey began in the winter of 2013.

32 Health care and social assistance accounted for about one-quarter of job vacancies. Oregon Job Vacancies by Industry, Winter 2015 Industry Vacancies All Industries 39,359 Health care and social assistance 9,064 Leisure and hospitality 5,575 Retail trade 5,483 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 3,120 Professional, scientific, and technical services 2,341 Construction 2,283 Wholesale trade 2,267 Management, administrative, and waste services 2,238 Financial activities 1,974 Manufacturing 1,950 Private educational services 1,342 Other services 1,048 Natural resources and mining 412 Information 262 Health care and social assistance regularly tops the list of industries with vacancies. Leisure and hospitality and retail trade also had many job openings in the winter.

33 Multnomah-Washington had many of the state s vacancies, but they were proportional to the area s share of total employment. Oregon Job Vacancies by Geography Oregon Statewide 39,359 Multnomah-Washington 16,474 Lane 4,298 Clackamas 3,946 Northwest Oregon 3,577 Central Oregon 3,009 Mid-Willamette Valley 2,633 Southern Oregon 1,796 South Coast 1,590 Eastern Oregon 1,219 multi-region or unknown area excluded Northwest Oregon had more vacancies than you might expect from its share of total employment The Mid-Willamette Valley had fewer vacancies than might be anticipated based on its share of employment.

34 Businesses told us that roughly half of those vacancies were difficult to fill. Difficult-to-fill vacancies: Are more likely to require previous work experience Provide slightly higher wages, on average Are more likely to be full-time positions Oregon Job Vacancies by Difficult to Fill Status, 2013 Average Hourly Wage Requiring Education Beyond High School Requiring Previous Experience Full-time Permanent Vacancies Positions Positions All Vacancies 32,602 $ % 78% 29% 69% Difficult to Fill 15,576 $ % 77% 29% 72% Not Difficult to Fill 17,026 $ % 78% 30% 67%

35 Knowing why vacancies are difficult to fill might help us better prepare workers Lack of work experience 9% Reasons Provided for Difficult-to-Fill Vacancies Lack of certification 2% Lack of soft skills 5% Lack of technical skills 2% Lack of training 1% High education requirements <1% Lack of applicants 23% Lack of qualified candidates 24% Unfavorable working conditions 17% Other 3% Location 3% Low wages 11%

36 Ongoing Resources Online Resources QualityInfo Our Workforce Analysts Special reports

37 Graham Slater, Research Administrator Oregon Employment Department (503) To find this presentation online, go to and use the search box to look up my name Join the conversation: OregonEmployment.blogspot.com