HOUSEHOLD SMART METERS DEVELOPING A DEMAND-SIDE

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1 HOUSEHOLD SMART METERS DEVELOPING A DEMAND-SIDE JUDITH WARD SUSTAINABILITY FIRST Workshop Balancing the System Falmouth Energy Week University of Exeter 23 June

2 SUSTAINABILITY FIRST - SMART METER RESEARCH Multi-Sponsor Studies on Household Smart Meters in GB , 2007* Covered gas & electricity ; costs & benefits ; communications ; supplier business case ; policy & regulatory barriers ; environment & social potential ; possible delivery models. Smart Tariffs and Smart Pre-pay new multi-sponsor project National Consumer Council Consumer Implications of Smart meters. July * Sponsors suppliers, transmission company, manufacturer, systems provider, consumer & energy saving bodies, Ofgem.

3 TODAY Smart Meters - Progress Smart Meters Demand-Side Goals Gas / Electricity Pre / Post 2020

4 SMART METERS - PROGRESS Government confirmed plan to mandate electricity and gas smart meters for all homes aiming 2020 (Oct 08). Preferred delivery model central communications with competitive meter roll-out (consultation). Many practical matters to resolve governance ; interoperability ; functionality ; stranding ; consumer safeguards. GB Trials to March Behavioural focus. 18,000 electricity & 12,000 gas smart meters (Reports - Ofgem website). Platform for wider demand-side policies (Renewables, Carbon, Heat, Energy saving, Micro-Gen)

5 BRIEF CONTEXT Retailers - no stand-alone business case for universal smart meter investment. Economic for suppliers to install smart meters for ~30% Households / SMEs (highcost-to-serve; pre-pay). Case for intervention - has been dependent upon potential environment and social benefit. Important that consumers do not pay high costs if benefits limited Government assessment of costs / benefits of 48 million household meters* Costs - ~ 8 bn Benefits - ~ 12 bn of which 6 bn supplier benefit (ending meter reads) ; Value of reduced energy consumption estimated at 3 bn Energy saving central case - Electricity 2.8% Gas 2 % Electricity demand shift assumed 20% uptake and 2.8% peak-load reduction * Central estimate, present value for central communications case in 2020

6 WHAT CAN HOUSEHOLD SMART METERS DO ON THE DEMAND SIDE? Digitalise energy supply in home : Store and transmit data electronically - both how much energy used and when used. Two-way communication This allows New Tariffs / New Price Incentives - more complexity eg Time- Varying / Critical Peak / Block Tariffs Automation - Electricity hot water; some wet appliances ; refrigeration potential win. Gas - thermostats, boiler-clocks. Micro-gen - ~1 million units served by import / export capability in electricity meters by 2020 Development of active household demand-side - new world of possibility..

7 SMART METER ROLL-OUT GB Meters -Customer Class Electricity Competitive Provision - and some Demand Response / Interruption already Very Large Large From 1994 Business 105,00 (peak >100kWh over 3 month period) By April ,000 (Profiles 5,6,7,8) Consulting on Roll-Out Model install by 2020 Smaller Business 2.2 million (Profiles 3,4) Homes / Others ~26 million Gas 2,000 40, million ~ 22 million (daily read >58,600 MWh pa) (>732 <58, 600 MWh pa) (>73 - <732 MWh pa)

8 UK ENERGY END-USE BY SECTOR 2008 Final Gas-Use 607 TWh Final Electricity Use 340 TWh Commercial / Public Sector 17 % Non- Energy Use 2% Industry 21% Commercial / Public Sector 30% Industry 33% z Source Energy Trends March 09. Domestic 60 % Transport 2% Domestic 35%

9 UK CO2 Emissions by End-Use Sector Commercial / Public Sector 10% Business 35% Transport 28% z Total MtC02 Source Defra. Domestic 27 % - of which space & water heating ~ 73% ; lighting & appliances ~ 27%

10 HOUSEHOLD SMART METERS CLARITY ON DEMAND-SIDE GOALS Need clarity on demand-side goals. Different incentives / interventions will give different outcomes Carbon Reduction in present fuel-mix most likely achieved by less household gas use need to tackle heating / hot-water. Overall GB Energy Saving. Estimates range from 1-3% for household reductions from smart meters (Ofgem, Government, Sustainability First) but some higher. SMEs 5% (Carbon Trust). 1% energy saving worthwhile for carbon Peak / Demand Response GB daily / seasonal energy peaks are met - but at high cost. Commercially complex to capture value of demand response in GB unbundled industry. In a low-carbon electricity system, need for Demand Response will grow. Customer Cash Savings - small NI Powershift Trial - customers saved money - but used slightly more electricity.

11 SMART METERS GB HOUSEHOLD CONTRIBUTION TO SYSTEM BALANCING? Customer acceptance central GB trials give insight into consumption patterns etc. But little knowledge of true price-responsiveness in GB - either for gas or electricity. Block tariffs may reduce demand (could be controversial / cause fuel-switching) ToU tariffs / Critical Peak Pricing may impact on peaks but - Unless household demand response is both automated and contracted - system operator has no guarantee.

12 UK HOUSEHOLD ENERGY USE Source Energy Trends Domestic Energy Consumption in the UK Sept 2008 Lighting & Appliances account for ~15% of all domestic energy consumption

13 UK Household Electricity Use Domestic Appliances Lighting Cold Appliances Cooking Thousand ToE Source Market Transformation Programme 2008 Consumer Electronics ICT Wet Appliances Discretionary appliance load for electric peak-shifting ~ 20%. Mainly wet appliances. Fridges / freezers offer scope w. automation

14 HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY TODAY DEMAND, CARBON, PEAK-RESPONSE GB Domestic Electricity Demand growing (but stabilising). More households, more appliances esp consumer electronics. By 2020 on BAU-basis, tougher product standards should reduce trend in demand growth esp lighting & electronics. Carbon More carbon benefit from electricity-saving than from peakshifting. Either way, carbon benefit depends on carbon-intensity of generating plant displaced. Electricity saving important now - electricity has higher carbon-intensity than gas - but may matter less if electricity largely decarbonised. Peak Response As of today, modest scope from GB households. Little electric space & water heating (<10% - & already off-peak). Today, perhaps ~ 20% domestic electrical load discretionary mostly wet appliances.

15 HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY - DEMAND-RESPONSE AND SYSTEM BALANCING PRE-2020? Pre-2020 Today, GB peak-demand is met (but costly). Non-domestic demand already offers GB balancing services. Elsewhere, household demand response (DR) has developed because of capacity and network constraints at peak (US, Canada, Australia, Ireland). International Smart Meter Trials success in peak-response. Eg California pilot ~5% from Time of Use tariffs and notably with automation 20-40%. BUT international examples mostly w air conditioning - or electric space & water heating. Also, greater vertical integration / less retail competition. Southern California Edison 330,000 Air Conditioning units to be bid into wholesale market as power reserves. Other US DSM examples. From GB will see some development of : Household peak-related tariffs some with automation Refrigeration dynamic demand Other pricing approaches - geared to demand-reduction

16 HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY DEMAND-RESPONSE AND SYSTEM BALANCING BEYOND 2020? Beyond low-carbon electric world Enabled by smart meters - should see a new commercial value to household demand-side - in a decarbonised electricity system dominated by nuclear (inflexible) & renewables (intermittent). Some household DR will come from automation of wet appliances / responsive refrigeration. However, for significant household demand response to develop in GB, will also need significant new responsive / discretionary household electrical load widely assumed from : Electric Heating (heat pumps) Electric Vehicles Regional / local demand response may have value local load, network capacity Household demand response will entail sophisticated commercial arrangements / contracting challenge for old and possibly new players. Significant contribution by households to balancing services (response, reserve etc) some way off.

17 HOUSEHOLD GAS DEMAND, CARBON, PEAK RESPONSE GB Household Gas Demand largely saturated / slight decline. ~85 % heating & hot-water load. 4-times more gas used (on average) in GB homes than electricity (kwh equiv). Highly weather dependent. Winter:summer ratio 5:1. On average, gas-bills twice that of electricity (altho electricity higher-cost fuel). Carbon reducing domestic gas-use gives carbon benefit thermostat turn-down ; adjust boiler-clock. (But in future, perhaps less so for bio-gas). Domestic gas customers are price-responsive GB household demand 2% down in 2005, 2006 in response to price rises. Role for Household Gas Peak Response? Gas winter peaks expensive (both short & long-run costs) but : Gas short-term storage available (eg line-pack) unlike electricity Industry already interrupts. Can pull-back CCGTs instead Gas market arrangements (daily balance) presently offer little commercial incentive to develop household daily peak response. Household gas-use at peak - how much discretion at peak in heating, hot-water, cooking? How desirable to incentivise less peak-use?

18 CONCLUSIONS The benefits, significant cost and complexity of installing c.48 million smart meters in GB homes continue to be explored. By 2020s, household smart meters should underpin GB measures for carbon, renewables and energy saving. Smart meters will enable new services and tariffs BUT Marketing approaches and climate policies will need to align. Otherwise, carbon, energy saving and demand response may not result. Delivery of public policy benefits from smart meters will depend upon appropriate frameworks - and leadership by government / regulator.

19 SUSTAINABILITY FIRST Sustainability First reports available at Reports written by Gill Owen & Judith Ward Contact us at : com

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