SAS Group Financial result Operational data Costs and productivity Actual issues Outlook. ANA/18FEB99 DU/GR/UP slide 1
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1 SAS Group 1998 Financial result Operational data Costs and productivity Actual issues Outlook DU/GR/UP slide 1
2 SAS Group 1998 Revenue MSEK up 5% Op. inc. bef. depr MSEK 0% Operating income MSEK up 24% Income before tax MSEK up 27% DU/GR/UP slide 2
3 Highlights 4th Quarter 1998 Negative trend for premium traffic Continued strong traffic growth in Swedish domestic market Introduction of Boeing Airspace98 (new flight paths) in Scandinavia New airport Gardermoen in Oslo opened New cargo terminals opened in Oslo and Copenhagen Both Airspace98 and Gardermoen caused significant disturbances in SAS operation DU/GR/UP slide 3
4 Considerable Distorting Items Impacting Operating Profit MSEK 1998 Currency One-off costs, labour & operational disturbances Total negative impact vs last year, approx DU/GR/UP slide 4
5 SAS Group Statement of Income (MSEK) 4th quarter Operating revenue Op. income before depr Operating income Financial items, net Income before taxes DU/GR/UP slide 5
6 SAS Group Statement of Income (MSEK) Operating revenue Op. income before depr Operating income Financial items, net Income before taxes DU/GR/UP slide 6
7 SAS Group Result Before depreciation and Before taxes MSEK Income bef depreciation DU/GR/UP slide 7 Income bef taxes
8 SAS Group Development of Income before Taxes MSEK Increase in revenues: MSEK Curr Yield Traffic Oth rev Costs etc Gain on sales SIH 1998 DU/GR/UP slide 8
9 SAS International Hotels Income before taxes (MSEK) DU/GR/UP slide 9
10 SAS Group Balance Sheet MSEK 31DEC98 31DEC97 Liquid funds Other interest-bearing assets Aircraft Other assets Total assets Operating liabilities Interest-bearing liabilities Subordinated debenture loan Minority interests Equity Total liabilities and equity Net debt Net debt / equity ratio 0,1 0,1 DU/GR/UP slide 10
11 SAS Group Changes in Financial Position MSEK Cash flow from operations Change in working capital Net financing from operations Investments, advance payments Sales of fixed assets, etc Dividends to mother companies Financing surplus Changes in external financing, net Change in liquid funds DU/GR/UP slide 11
12 SAS Group Key Ratios Gross operating margin % Return on capital employed % Return on equity % *) Equity / assets ratio % Net debt / equity ratio 0,1 0,1 *) After standard tax DU/GR/UP slide 12
13 Goal for Shareholder Returns The SAS Group s goal is to provide its shareholders with a competitive return. This refers to yearly rise in the share price plus dividends. The aim is to give shareholders a return of 14% per year, calculated as an average over a business cycle. Annual Report 1997 DU/GR/UP slide 13
14 SAS Group s Financial Target The target for shareholder returns is translated into an internal financial target, return on capital employed (ROCE). The present ROCE target is 12% per year, calculated as an average over a business cycle. Annual Report 1997 DU/GR/UP slide 14
15 SAS Group - ROCE 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% DU/GR/UP slide 15
16 Market Based Key Ratios Cash flow return on investments (CFROI) Cash flow from operations (EBITDAR) Adjusted capital: + total assets + overvalues aircraft + capitalized leases - interest-bearing assets - noninterest-bearing debt Market based ROCE Result: + EBIT + interest part of leases + change of overvalues (aircraft) Adjusted capital: + total assets + overvalues aircraft + capitalized leases - interest-bearing assets - noninterest-bearing debt DU/GR/UP slide 16
17 Cash Flow Return on Investments (CFROI) - SAS Group 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% DU/GR/UP slide 17
18 25% Market Based ROCE vs ROCE SAS Group 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Market based ROCE ROCE DU/GR/UP slide 18
19 SAS Total Market Capitalization SEK (bill.) Average investor yield 16,1% 0 jan-91 jan-92 jan-93 jan-94 jan-95 jan-96 jan-97 jan-98 jan-99 DU/GR/UP slide 19
20 SAS Aircraft Fleet Aircraft in SAS Traffic 31DEC98 30SEP98 31DEC97 Boeing Boeing MD-81/82/ MD MD Boeing DC DC DC Fokker F Fokker F SAAB TOTAL DU/GR/UP slide 20
21 Passenger Traffic % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Change vs vs last last year year Q1/98 Q2/98 Q3/98 Q4/ RPK-C RPK-M RPK General decrease in business travel in Q4 Full year premium traffic almost flat Still strong growth of discounted traffic - partly driven by campaigns Passenger load factor 65,7% (up 0,8 p.u.) Number of passengers up 4,3% DU/GR/UP slide 21
22 Passenger Load Factor Total System Moving 12 months values 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% DEC94 MAR JUN SEP DEC95MAR JUN SEP DEC96MAR JUN SEP DEC97 MAR JUN SEP DEC98 DU/GR/UP slide 22
23 Share of Fullfare Traffic 34% Total System Moving 12 months values 33% 32% 31% 30% 29% DEC94 MAR JUN SEP DEC95 MAR JUN SEP DEC96 MAR JUN SEP DEC97 MAR JUN SEP DEC98 DU/GR/UP slide 23
24 Yield Total System 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Yield as is Curr adj yield DU/GR/UP slide 24
25 Intercontinental Routes 1998 Change vs last year 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Q1/98 Q2/98 Q3/98 Q4/ Stockholm-Chicago opened 25OCT Passenger load factor 77,7% (down 1,6 p.u.) Balance in production & traffic on Asia, negative on USA RPK-C RPK-M DU/GR/UP slide 25
26 European Routes % 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Change vs last year Passenger load factor 59,2% (up 1,9 p.u.) High load factor and premium traffic growth on UK, France, Germany, Estonia -10% Q1/98 Q2/98 Q3/98 Q4/ RPK-C RPK-M DU/GR/UP slide 26
27 Intrascandinavian Routes 1998 Change vs last year 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Passenger load factor 59,2% (down 0,6 p.u.) General decrease in business travel means fewer transfer passengers -15% -20% Q1/98 Q2/98 Q3/98 Q4/ RPK-C RPK-M DU/GR/UP slide 27
28 Danish Domestic Routes % 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Change vs last year Q1/98 Q2/98 Q3/98 Q4/ Passenger load factor 62,5% (up 3,7 p.u.) Adjustments in traffic system due to infrastructural changes in Danish domestic market successful RPK-C RPK-M DU/GR/UP slide 28
29 Norwegian Domestic Routes % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Change vs last year Q1/98 Q2/98 Q3/98 Q4/ Passenger load factor 62,7% (up 1,7 p.u.) Troublesome opening of Gardermoen when Norwegian domestic capacity was increased RPK-C RPK-M DU/GR/UP slide 29
30 Swedish Domestic Routes 1998 Change vs last year 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Q1/98 Q2/98 Q3/98 Q4/ Passenger load factor 63,6% (up 3,4 p.u.) Only route area with increasing premium traffic in Q4 Continued strong growth in discounted segment RPK-C RPK-M DU/GR/UP slide 30
31 SAS Cargo 1998 Competition hardened, primarily due to the crisis in Asia Three cargo terminals opened: - JAN Newark - OCT Gardermoen - DEC Copenhagen Cargo tonnage increased 0,4 p.u., cargo tonne kilometers increased 3,3 p.u. DU/GR/UP slide 31
32 Star Alliance Synergies Code-Sharing with 19 Partners Number of destinations 20SEP98 31DEC98 SAS network SAS code-shared with LH SAS code-shared with other TOTAL Number of frequencies/day 12-18OCT JAN99 SAS operated, no code-sharing Partner flts on SAS SAS comm. flts on partners TOTAL DU/GR/UP slide 32
33 Lufthansa Joint Venture Traffic 1998 vs 1997 Joint Venture routes Germany-Scandinavia Index Last Year Passengers Traffic, RPK 116 Production, ASK 110 Cabin factor ,0% ,6% DU/GR/UP slide 33
34 SAS EuroBonus Development 4th quarter 1998 Number of members during 4th quarter increased by 4,5% to Member distribution by country: Outside Scandinavia 31% Denmark 16% Norway 31% Sweden 22% Number of members jan 96 apr 96 jul 96 okt 96 jan 97 apr 97 jul 97 oct 97 jan 98 apr 98 jul 98 oct 98 DU/GR/UP slide 34
35 Unit Cost Development Index Last Year 5% 4% 3% 2% Excl one-off, labour and operational disturbances: -2,6% 1% 0% DU/GR/UP slide 35
36 Slightly Increased Unit Costs 1998 vs 1997 MSEK Adjusted Share of JAN-DEC/97 JAN-DEC/98 Var. % total var % Commissions % 0.7% Fuel % 1.0% Government charges % 2.0% Personnel (7.6%) (3.0%) Other oper. net costs (3.7%) (1.0%) TOTAL (0.4%) (0.4%) Volume = average growth in ASK and RPK = 2,1% DU/GR/UP slide 36
37 Productivity Negatively Effected by Labour Conflicts, Airspace98, Gardermoen and One-off Activities +5% +4% +3% +2% +1% +0% -1% -2% -3% 2% loss of volume 1% oneoff extra personnel -4% Measure is average change of RPK /ASK over change in number of full time employees DU/GR/UP slide 37
38 In Pipeline 1999 Complete review of long haul operations Evaluate of larger aircraft medium haul Further develop partner cooperation Implement program SAS Complete and implement result improvement program DU/GR/UP slide 38
39 SAS & Partners today Regionals: Cimber Air Wideröe Skyways Air Botnia Maersk Grønlandsfly (DK) (NO) (SE) (FI) (DK) (DK) Lufthansa United Air Canada Thai Varig Air New Zealand Ansett Australia All Nippon Airways European: British Midland Spanair Air Baltic DU/GR/UP slide 39 (UK) (SP) (Lat)
40 SAS New products and services based on: individual, informal and personal New corporate identity Strengthening of the SAS brand Internal motivation program DU/GR/UP slide 40
41 Program to Improve Result Result improvement program to be implemented with ambition to increase SAS Airline gross profit margin by 3 p.u. from 12% to 15%: Strengthening revenues - maintaining yields Cost reduction program to lower costs MSEK - evaluation of core activities - evaluation of current structures MSEK from gap MSEK plus reduction of two years natural cost increase DU/GR/UP slide 41
42 Example of Structural Actions Distribution - Multi Channel Strategy Background /4 of total cost DU/GR/UP slide 42
43 Outlook 1999 Weakening business traffic Higher risk of overcapacity Norwegian market slowing down since opening of Gardermoen (travel patterns) and from lower economic growth in Norway Increased risk exposure General global economic uncertainty Asia and South America Weaker stock exchanges DU/GR/UP slide 43
44 Monthly Change in Total C-class Traffic JAN98 - JAN99 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 1% yearly C-class revenue means: 170 MSEK 5% 0% -5% -10%? -15% -20% JAN98 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN99 DU/GR/UP slide 44
45 Monthly Change in Total M-class Traffic JAN98 - JAN99 10% 5%? 0% -5% -10% 1% yearly M-class revenue means: 110 MSEK -15% JAN98 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN99 DU/GR/UP slide 45
46 A Tough Year Ahead 1999 will be a tough year facing increased uncertainties: global economic development capacity development revenues, especially from premium traffic development Firm actions to improve costs in the downturn DU/GR/UP slide 46
47 Aircraft fleet Present DC-9 & F-28 / Future /700/ Total number of firm orders: 55 options: 40 30SEP Owned/Fin. lease Op. lease Firm orders Options DU/GR/UP slide 47
48 Aircraft fleet Present F-50 & Saab2000 / Future Dash 8-Q Total number of firm orders: 17 options: SEP Owned/Fin. lease Op. lease Firm orders Options DU/GR/UP slide 48
49 Investments Aircraft MUSD Firm orders: Other investments in SAS normally MSEK annually DU/GR/UP slide 49
50 Capacity Increase Planned for 1999 Planned capacity (ASK) increase for 1999 vs 1998 is 6,5% Comparison to 1998: The labour conflicts and operational disturbances related to both opening of Gardermoen and Airspace98 meant approx. 2,5% loss of production in 1998 Flexibility: If traffic prognosis fail, aircraft planned for phase out can be phased out earlier DU/GR/UP slide 50
51 Appendix Share prices Currency effects SAS Group data SAS data DU/GR/UP slide 51
52 SAS Share Prices 1998 SEK DEN NOR 01jan98 01apr98 01jul98 01okt98 01jan99 SAS Danmark SAS Norge SAS Sverige SWE DU/GR/UP slide 52
53 SAS Share Prices 1998 Deviation from Mathematical Parity 25% 20% DEN 15% 10% 5% 0% SWE -5% -10% -15% -20% NOR 01jan98 01apr98 01jul98 01okt98 01jan99 SAS Danmark SAS Norge SAS Sverige DU/GR/UP slide 53
54 SAS Parent Companies 1998 Key values SAS Danmark SAS Norge SAS Sverige Earnings per share - local curr. 11,60 11,51 12,77 - SEK 13,78 12,13 12,77 Equity per share - local curr. 70,62 81,96 89,77 - SEK 90,11 87,94 89,77 DU/GR/UP slide 54
55 SEK INDEX Development of SEK vs ECU index = 100 jan-95 jan-96 jan-97 jan-98 jan-99 DU/GR/UP slide 55
56 SAS Airline Currency Distribution Revenues Costs Major deficiency currencies: USD,DKK 19% 14% 4% 9% 34% SEK NOK DKK USD GBP other 15% 28% SEK DKK USD NOK other 14% 20% 19% 24% DU/GR/UP slide 56
57 SAS Airline Currency Effects 1998 vs 1997 (MSEK) Q Total revenues Total costs Forward cover costs & working cap Income bef. depr Financial items Income before tax DU/GR/UP slide 57
58 Currency Effects Total revenues & costs: (Total -248 MSEK) Major approx. effects: USD -130 Asian curr NOK -60 DKK -35 GBP +65 Forward cover costs: (Total -73 MSEK) vs 1997 SAS Airline Working capital: (Total -3 MSEK) Financial items: (Total +4 MSEK) Grand total: MSEK DU/GR/UP slide 58
59 SAS Group Net Financial Items (MSEK) Interest net Currency loss Financial items, net DU/GR/UP slide 59
60 SAS Group Income by Business Unit (MSEK) 4th quarter SAS SAS International Hotels Other operations/group elim Income before taxes DU/GR/UP slide 60
61 SAS Group Income by Business Unit (MSEK) SAS SAS International Hotels Other operations/group elim Income before taxes DU/GR/UP slide 61
62 SAS Group Development of Equity/Assets Ratio 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% dec-92 jun-93 dec-93 jun-94 dec-94 jun-95 dec-95 jun-96 dec-96 jun-97 dec-97 jun-98 dec-98 DU/GR/UP slide 62
63 SAS Group Development of Net Debt MSEK MSEK MSEK MSEK MSEK MSEK MSEK MSEK dec-91 jun-92 dec-92 jun-93 dec-93 jun-94 dec-94 jun-95 dec-95 jun-96 dec-96 jun-97 dec-97 jun-98 dec-98 DU/GR/UP slide 63
64 SAS Group Cash Flow Net Financing from ops + sales & Investments MSEK Generated cash flow DU/GR/UP slide 64 Investments
65 SAS Group Income before taxes Bars = Quarterly income Line = Moving 12 months result MSEK Q1-92 Q2-92 Q3-92 Q4-92 Q1-93 Q2-93 Q3-93 Q4-93 Q1-94 Q2-94 Q3-94 Q4-94 Q1-95 Q2-95 Q3-95 Q4-95 Q1-96 Q2-96 Q3-96 Q4-96 Q1-97 Q2-97 Q3-97 Q4-97 Q1-98 Q2-98 Q3-98 Q4-98 DU/GR/UP slide 65
66 SAS Revenues (as is) MSEK curr adj 97 Passenger revenues Cargo revenues Other traffic revenues Other revenues TOTAL REVENUES DU/GR/UP slide 66
67 SAS Operating Costs (as is) MSEK curr adj 97 Personnel costs Leasing costs (aircraft) Sales costs Fuel Governmental charges Meals costs Handling costs Maintenance costs Other costs TOTAL COSTS DU/GR/UP slide 67
68 Slightly Increased Unit Costs 1998 vs 1997 (MSEK) Operating net costs excluding A/C lease and other revenue Adjustments: Currency effect Volume (RPK/ASK=2,1%) Comparable operating net costs Change in operating net cost (99) In % of comparable net cost 1997 (0,4%) DU/GR/UP slide 68
69 Traffic and Yield 1998 vs 1997 Index, SAS Total Scheduled variance Production (mill ASK) Traffic (mill RPK) Cabin factor (%) 65,7 64,8 + 0,8 C-class share (%) 31,0 31,7-0,7 Yield (öre/rpk) Currency adj. yield DU/GR/UP slide 69
70 Production and Traffic 1998 vs 1997 Route Sector Production Traffic Cabin Scheduled ASK RPK factor % SAS Total ,8 Intercontinental ,6 Europe ,9 Intrascandinavian ,6 Denmark/Greenland ,7 Norway ,7 Sweden ,4 DU/GR/UP slide 70
71 Traffic Analysis 1998 vs 1997 Route Sector Fullfare Discounted Total traffic Scheduled RPK-C RPK-M RPK SAS Total Intercontinental Europe Intrascandinavian Denmark/Greenland Norway Sweden DU/GR/UP slide 71
72 Passenger Yield 1998 vs 1997 Route Sector Nominal Currency Adjusted Scheduled yield effect yield SAS Total Intercontinental Europe Intrascandinavian Denmark/Greenland Norway Sweden DU/GR/UP slide 72
73 Traffic and Yield 4th Quarter 1998 vs th quarter Index, SAS Total Scheduled variance Production (mill ASK) Traffic (mill RPK) Cabin factor (%) 62,7 63,6-0,9 C-class share (%) 33,1 35,4-2,3 Yield (öre/rpk) Currency adj. yield DU/GR/UP slide 73
74 Production and Traffic 4th quarter 1998 vs 1997 Route Sector Production Traffic Cabin Scheduled ASK RPK factor % SAS Total ,9 Intercontinental ,9 Europe ,5 Intrascandinavian ,2 Denmark/Greenland ,5 Norway ,4 Sweden ,0 DU/GR/UP slide 74
75 Traffic Analysis 4th quarter 1998 vs 1997 Route Sector Fullfare Discounted Total traffic Scheduled RPK-C RPK-M RPK SAS Total Intercontinental Europe Intrascandinavian Denmark/Greenland Norway Sweden DU/GR/UP slide 75
76 Passenger Yield 4th quarter 1998 vs 1997 Route Sector Nominal Currency Adjusted Scheduled yield effect yield SAS Total Intercontinental Europe Intrascandinavian Denmark/Greenland Norway Sweden DU/GR/UP slide 76
77 SAS Statement of income (MSEK) Operating revenue *) Operating income bef. depr. *) Operating income Income before taxes *) Excluding SAS Trading and aircraft lease net DU/GR/UP slide 77
78 SAS Statement of income (MSEK) 4th quarter Operating revenue *) Operating income bef. depr. *) Operating income Income before taxes *) Excluding SAS Trading and aircraft lease net DU/GR/UP slide 78
79 Sales of Aircraft Sold: MD-83 (Q1) - 1 Saab 340 (Q1) - 1 Boeing (Q4) - 1 Boeing (Q4) Sale/leaseback: - 1 Boeing (Q1) - 4 DC-9-21 (Q1) - 1 Boeing (Q3) - 20 DC-9-41 (Q3) Gain on sales: MSEK DU/GR/UP slide 79
80 Present Surplus Aircraft 1 a/c a/c Saab340 To be sold when suitable DU/GR/UP slide 80
81 SAS Income before e.o. items Bars = Quarterly income Line = Moving 12 months result MSEK Q1-92 Q2-92 Q3-92 Q4-92 Q1-93 Q2-93 Q3-93 Q4-93 Q1-94 Q2-94 Q3-94 Q4-94 Q1-95 Q2-95 Q3-95 Q4-95 Q1-96 Q2-96 Q3-96 Q4-96 Q1-97 Q2-97 Q3-97 Q4-97 Q1-98 Q2-98 Q3-98 Q4-98 DU/GR/UP slide 81
82 Unit Cost Definition The unit cost change is calculated as follows: Costs: Operating expenses excluding depreciation and lease costs for aircraft and reduced with other external revenue Last year figure is for comparison adjusted with currency effect Volume growth rate: Average growth rate of ASK and RPK Net unit cost change: Growth rate of comparable costs in relation to volume growth rate DU/GR/UP slide 82
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