Expectations of Russian Tourists: A View from the Russian Perspective

Transcription

1 Expectations of Russian Tourists: A View from the Russian Perspective

2 Index 1. Understanding the Context 2. Russian Outbound Travel Development 3. Destinations and Source Regions 4. Organized Travel Tour Operators Boosting the Travel 5. Travel and Booking Behavior of Russians 6. An Ideal Destination 2

3 Prejudices Russia 3

4 Price drop of commodities leads to economic downturn, accelerated by the Western sanctions against Russia Major drivers for Russian economy Crude oil price [USD/brl] Natural gas price [USD/mmbtu] FX rate USD / RUB -63% -39% +131% E E E After years of stability oil has sharply reduced giving the Russian economy a major hit Gas price has seen a dip already in 2012 and shows more stability in the current crisis FX was reacting most dramatic with huge impact on everything that is imported; sanctions are even worsening this 4

5 Economic and political factors put pressure on demand for outbound travel Economic downturn leading to recession. Although Russia is in much better shape than in 2008, it still struggles to generate growth Inflation and currency devaluation suppress demand especially for imported goods and trips abroad Ban on flights to Turkey and Egypt the largest outbound destinations Massive support for Domestic travel as substitute of destinations abroad Restrictions for state officials to travel abroad 4m people affected Tourism gaining political importance regulating the market 5

6 Shift from Outbound to Domestic travel as growth generator Outbound tourism travel [passengers] 15,1 2,5 1,8 10,8 20% 0% -28% 18,1 18,0 3,0 3,4 2,1 2,4 13,0 12,3-47% 13,0 2,7 2,2 6,9 8,1 6,5 Turkey Egypt Other Historic CAGR of 18% up to 2013 RUB devaluation made outbound travel two times more expensive Bounce back expected in 2017 Still market penetration very low at 5% compared to 30-40% in the EU E Domestic tourism travel [passengers] 10,7 2,3 8,4 13,9 2,5 +20% 16,7 3,5 18,6 4,6 11,4 13,2 14,0 21,8 5,0 16,8 Crimea Sochi & Abkhazia Huge infrastructure projects for the Olympics (hotels, roads, attractions) As of 2013/14 large tour operators support this development Only 10-15% of the market is organized by tour operators E 6

7 Germany as a destination for Russian travelers Historically about 1.5m trips to Germany, more than half with tourism purpose Business people / VFR also could be counted as tourists In 2015 drop of 20% 2016 data not available but expected similar decrease Tourism mainly related to sightseeing / culture, events, skiing, shopping Mainly in large cities Berlin, Munich, etc. 7

8 Moscow accounts for half of the travelers abroad Moscow 12m inhabitants city, 16m metropolitan area Saint Petersburg 5m inhabitants 12 further cities between 1m and 1.5m inhabitants Concentration in the West of the Federation Population density Main departure regions Ekaterinburg, Kazan, Samara, etc 38% 50% Moscow Saint Petersburg 12% 8

9 Tour operators boosting the travel, key to a mass approach and large scale travel flow Actual service providers Bearing risk, aggressive pricing Organizing the travel package Intermediary on commission End Consumer HOTELS TOUR OPERATOR TRAVEL AGENT TRAVELLER AIRLINES OTHER SERVICES Turkey from 1m to 4m travelers Egypt from 0.4mto 3m travelers Thailand from 0.1m to 1.5m travelers Latest case Domestic travel 9

10 Travel and booking behavior Booking behavior Very late booking behavior 65% of Sales within a month before departure Trend towards individual travel hotel and flight online, but not for beach holiday FX impact lower category, later booking Destinations Airline After bankruptcy of Transaero last year, Aeroflot holds >50% market share Major EU airlines cut their flight routes Government financially supports only domestic destinations Retail Most popular are non-visa destinations: Turkey, Egypt, Thailand, Dubai Difficulties to obtain EU visa in regions Mass destinations are supported by tour operators taking the charter risks Travel packages are predominantly purchased in travel agencies 97% Hotels, flights individually booked are purchased and fulfilled online Role of mobile commerce increasing 10

11 An ideal recreational destination Visa free / visa upon arrival Value for money Good tourist infrastructure? Safe Airport If beach, ski or roundtrips supported by TO Politically acceptable 11

12 Q&A Spasibo! 12