Current research on the effects of ocean/climate variability on fisheries resources in the Pacific NW

Transcription

1 Current research on the effects of ocean/climate variability on fisheries resources in the Pacific NW PaCOOS Board of Governor s May 22, 2008 John Ferguson, NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries Science Center

2 Six Climate Change Issues Involving Ecological Resources Freshwater supply & resource management Ocean warming: impacts on distribution & ecosystem productivity Climate impacts on ecosystems: identifying long term change vs. natural variability Loss of sea ice Ocean acidification Sea level rise

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4 Slide and data by Laurie Weitkamp Columbia River Rogue R Chinook released Coho from Columbia R Challenge: Salmon vary in ocean residency! Lower R Fall Chinook (ocean types) Up river bright U Col Sum Willamette spr

5 Ocean Research - Background In 1998 we formed the Estuarine and Ocean Ecology Program to understand processes and develop tools (models and indices) for forecasting salmonid survival and returns Since 2006: qualitative forecasts of salmon returns based on ocean indicators Recent collapse of west-coast stocks has highlighted the need for increased prediction capabilities; managers realize existing predictors based on sibling regressions or ocean variables aren t capturing the recruitment variability

6 Approach: Develop a suite of physical and biological indices that predict ecosystem response Large scale forces acting at the local scale influence biological process important for salmon Alaska PDO British Columbia 65N Local Physical Conditions Upwelling Spring Transition ENSO SST Coastal currents U.S.A W Local Biological Conditions

7 126 W 125 W 124 W 123 W 48 N La Push Queets River Washington Climate, ocean conditions and salmon 47 N 46 N 45 N Grays Harbor Willapa Bay Columbia River Cape Falcon Cape Meares Cascade Head Oregon Newport Line biweekly sampling since 1996 Juvenile salmon sampling in May, June and September since 1998 Newport Cape Perpetua ^_

8 Local and regional physical indicators of SST off Newport show that PDO downscales PDO Index NOAA Buoy Temperature Anomaly PDO and SST correlated There are 3-5 month time lags between PDO sign change and SST response

9 Length of upwelling season vs. coho survival OPI Coho Survival y=0.4387exp(0.0107*x) R-sq = 0.64, p Length of the Biological Upwelling Season (days) Longer upwelling seasons (spring date to fall date) result in higher coho salmon survival

10 Are local growing conditions important to salmon? YES!! Survival relates to Growth relates to growth food Adult return Growth Factor Growth Factor Salmon food Salmon food April upwelling Adult returns related to ocean conditions in the California Current Ecosystem

11 Northern Copepods as ecological indicators of coho survival and fall Chinook returns COHO OPI (% SURVIVAL) Counts of Fall Chinook at Bonneville Dam Fall Chinook Adult Counts vs. Copepods R 2 = e+5 4e+5 3e+5 2e+5 1e Northern Copepod Anomalies N. Copepod Biomass Anomaly 7e+5 6e+5

12 Catches of juvenile salmon vs. number of returning spring Chinook jacks and Oregon coho one year later

13 Working hypothesis: Three factors affect plankton, food chains, pelagic fish and salmon growth and survival in the Northern California Current: Strength of coastal upwelling Seasonal reversal of coastal currents: southward in summer northward in winter Phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

14 Ocean Index Forecasting Future Salmon Returns Juvenile migration year Forecast of adult returns Large-scale ocean and atmospheric indicators PDO MEI Local and regional physical indicators Sea surface temperature Coastal upwelling Physical spring transition Deep water temp. & salinity Local biological indicators Copepod biodiversity Northern copepod anomalies Biological spring transition Spring Chinook--June -- Coho--September -- Coho 2008 Chinook (look under What s new )

15 Can predict adult returns based on ocean indicators Columbia River Fall Chinook Abundance (x 10,000) Adult Returns 5 6 Good Ocean Average Ocean Poor Ocean Ocean Conditions

16 Coho (OPI) % Adult Returns Good 4 2 Average Poor Ocean Percent Surviv

17 Spring Chinook 45 Abundance (x 10,000) Adult Returns Good Ocean Average Ocean Poor Ocean

18 10x Point: FW and marine Why conditions Go to Sea? covary (lower flows = lower juvenile River Lower Granite Dam survival = poor marine survival) Columbia John Day Dam Snake Difference in survival between low and high flow years in Lemhi River, Idaho (low < high) River Salmon Lemhi trap River Lemhi River 3x

19 IPCC Climate scenarios Salmon River Idaho: 1. Lower flow: 2. Increased temperature: Flow (cms) Temp. ( o C) Historic Composite CCSM Climate scenarios Historic Composite CCSM Climate scenarios

20 Effects of future climate scenarios: 1. Salmon abundance decreases: 2. Extinction risk increases: Climate scenario 0 Historic Composite CCSM 0 Historic Composite CCSM Climate scenarios Climate scenarios

21 The CR Plume where the river meets the ocean Ocean Plume Historic flow Current flow

22 Draft Action Plan: Prepare for the effects of climate change Seven Priority Areas: Effective implementation of ecosystem- based management of our ocean and coastal resources Expand ocean and coastal scientific information, research, and monitoring

23 Future directions for understanding climate impacts to oceans: downscaling, integration, and predictions Atmospheric patterns Oceanographic response Ecosystem response (10 of 20 years)??

24 Future directions: 1. Expand Intensive lines and coast-wide 2. Downscale climate predictions to ecosystem response 3. Integrate FW and marine 4. Improve salmon forecasts

25 Acknowledgements Fish Ecology Program staff (incl. OSU- CIMRS) Bonneville Power Administration U.S.GLOBEC Program (NOAA/NSF) NOAA ESA funding Columbia River Biological Opinion Stock Assessment Improvement See What s New