European EV Charging Infrastructure Current and Future Projections. Alastair Hayfield Associate Director, Emerging Technologies +44 (0)

Transcription

1 European EV Charging Infrastructure Current and Future Projections Alastair Hayfield Associate Director, Emerging Technologies +44 (0)

2 About IHS We are more than 8,000 people, in 30 countries, speaking 50 languages - all working each day to: Serve businesses and all levels of government worldwide Ranging from 80% of Global Fortune 500 to small businesses Customers in 167 countries Provide comprehensive content, software and expert analysis and forecasts Helping our customers drive critical processes and make high-impact decisions with speed and confidence Energy & Power Design & Supply Chain Defense, Risk & Security EHS & Sustainability Country & Industry Forecasts Commodities, Pricing & Cost 2

3 Charging Infrastructure Forecast Key Points to Note Only looking at charging stations used for light and small commercial vehicles. Not including charging stations used solely for ebikes, industrial vehicles, etc. Analysing charging station deployments, not charging spots. Public charging stations can often (but not always) have two sockets/spots per deployment. What is included: domestic mode 1/2/3, mode 1/2 public, mode 3, mode 4 (Fast DC) Region: all countries in EMEA 3

4 Charging Station Projects and/or Networks (Thousands of Stations) Norway: Elbil UK: Plugged-in Places NE: e-laad Denmark: BetterPlace Israel: BetterPlace IE: ESB e-cars Germany: eon, RWE France: EDF, Autolib Spain: Movele Portugal: MOBI-E Italy: Enel

5 2012 Total Charging Station Deployments (Thousands of Stations Public, Private, Semi-Public) NE BE

6 Cumulative Public, Private, Semi-Public Charging Station Deployments EMEA 000s of Stations 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Semi-public Public Private 1,

7 Cumulative Charging Station Deployments EMEA 000s of stations Rest of EMEA Netherlands United Kingdom France Germany

8 Key Points Germany, France, UK, the Netherlands key markets for infrastructure Germany forecast to have just over 1 million charging stations by million charging stations by 2020, of which nearly one seventh are public/semi-public At critical point in market for infrastructure moving away from public led, to private push (OEMs, property owners, etc.) In future, needs to be far greater uptake of private infrastructure to encourage EV sales 8

9 Forecast Upside Potential A significant portion of charging stations are expected to be sold for domestic use. A change to the IHS Automotive alternative propulsion projection would increase the demand for home chargers. A significant positive change in the projection for sales of BEVs and PHEVs will impact the amount of public and commercial charging infrastructure needed. One or more government(s) may use legislation or incentives to positively impact the roll out of EV charging infrastructure. If the cost of charging station equipment and associated installation reduces more quickly than forecast, this will positively impact demand. A better than predicted rise in the sale of BEVs will drive growth in the fast charging market. If all (or a significant majority) of OEMs look to standardise on one fast charging technology, there may be a positive impact on the forecast presented in this research. 9

10 Forecast Downside Risk The predicted demand for BEVs and PHEVs may not occur as thought, limiting charging station uptake. Much of the forecast is predicated on the assumption that driver behaviour will not change significantly when an electric vehicle. However, should driving behaviour alter significantly, there may be less need for charging infrastructure at certain locations. A new battery technology may significantly improve the capacity and range of electric vehicles. This will reduce the need for wide-spread charging infrastructure as electric vehicles won t need to charge as often. If the cost of charging stations remains high, this may dampen demand. 10

11 MARKET DRIVERS AND INHIBITORS 11

12 Charging Station Networks Many EV charging stations are part of networks run by service operators Depending on subscription type, users can often only charge at points that are a part of their network Lack of roaming between networks is potential inhibitor to EV sales Industry is starting to use PAYG roaming models and data sharing 12

13 EC Directive In many regards, the EC should be commended for taking action to implement targets for EV charging stations. However, several issues remain. Fate of CHAdeMO? Scale of targets Targets based on old forecasts which are now out of date Italy unlikely to be second largest market for charging stations given current economic performance Germany s own platform for emobility thinks target of one million electric cars by 2020 remains extremely ambitious 13

14 Wireless Charging Wireless or inductive charging is not new Used in various applications for industrial robots, automotive, consumer electronics Renewed interest in automotive applications with growth of emobility Convenience; well suited to vehicles on regular, predictable routes; reduces battery size (and weight) Limited OEM support at moment; expensive component; limited interest from EVSE manufacturers; in short and mid-term would have to be paralled with a plug-in charging system; interference/safety issues need to be trialled 14

15 Grid Readiness Concerns that at a national and local level, grid is not capable of supporting large volumes of PHEVs and BEVs Little work done thus far to test/model the impact Concern at local level substations not able to cope if connected to multiple EVs Industry needs to monitor problem as volumes grow, set aside funds to harden infrastructure if necessary If significant issue,,may hamper uptake of electric vehicles 15

16 Fast Charging Key enabler for electric vehicles Market currently dominated by CHAdeMO chargers In mid-term, CHAdeMO and CCS will co-exist In mid-term, charging type may dictate vehicle sales by country Long term, CCS may win out in EMEA given OEM support and EC directive 16

17 Cumulative Fast Charging Station Deployments EMEA EMEA EMEA

18 Market Education Education is needed to drive uptake in the private/commercial sector There is little awareness that the installation can be complicated and can be expensive, and on-going cost of maintenance and servicing is required there are a lot of electricians who don t know how to talk to a CFO about RoI. As far as the EVSE manufacturers are concerned, they are doing a poor job generically across the board educating potential hosts about EVSE infrastructure. [We] are not losing customers as a result of not having EV infrastructure at properties. 18

19 CONCLUSION 19

20 Key Steps to Grow Infrastructure Companies can benefit by being active in more than one part of the supply chain. Developing large networks through organic growth or acquisitions will be a way for operators to maximise subscriber numbers and recurring revenues. Work closely with site owners to develop locations that offer high usability and per use fee. Investigate ancillary revenue opportunities such as advertising or licensing personal information. Target green or CSR budget. Companies value good press and social citizenship.

21 Conclusion Sufficient charging infrastructure in place for early adopters Private/commercial installations need to be developed to propel EV/PHEV market More education and support needs to be given to those deploying EV charging at their facilities Fast charging a key technology enabler. Wireless charging to have a slower, longer-term impact. Roaming between charging station networks needs to be simple and pan-european. Significant consolidation expected in supply chain. 21

22 Thanks for your attention! Alastair Hayfield, 22