Population Ageing, Participation Rates & Policy Options
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1 Population Ageing, Participation Rates & Policy Options Guay Lim Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research
2 Preamble - the 3 Ps Population Participation Productivity
3 Age Population (PC) Males 1945 Females 0-3% 0% 3% per cent of population 1945 Age Males Females 0-3% 0% 3% per cent of population
4 Participation Rates Participation Rates by Age Groups female male
5 Productivity inverted U-shape - productivity increase with age then decline after middle years PC Report (2005) - Overall, there is insufficient evidence that ageing per se will either enhance or erode labour s productivity prospects
6 Population, Participation, Productivity per capita GDP growth will slump to 1.25% per year by mid 2020s half its rate in Fiscal pressure increase in health and aged care spending Aggregate Participation Rates (Victoria) projected ( ) actual ( )
7 3 Ps + 1 Population Participation Productivity Add 4 th P Policies
8 Policies (PC Report) Population policies have limited potential Fertility rates are insensitive to policy Net migration Productivity performance is critical Incentives to be efficient and innovative Scope to lift participation drivers of participation?
9 OECD studies Jaumotte (2003) Focus: female labour force participation Key drivers: education, childcare support Burniaux, Duval and Jaumotte (2003) Focus: decision to retire Key drivers: pension reforms (e.g. removal of early retirement schemes) For Australia: impact of disability benefits
10 Estimation of a Labour Supply and Welfare Participation Model for the Australian Population by G. Kalb & H. Buddelmeyer MI Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) preference for labour supply highest for people with high educational level, who are in their thirties. The preference for labour supply is lower for women with children, in particular when the children are young. there is a (financial or psychological) cost to welfare participation.
11 Health Status and Labour Force Participation: Evidence from Australia by L.Cai & G.Kalb Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey results indicate that better health increases the probability of labour force participation for all four groups males aged 15-49; males aged 50-64; females aged and females aged 50-60
12 5 key policy drivers of participation rates Education Childcare Health Welfare Pension
13 Can policies improve participation rates? Aggregate Participation Rate (Victoria) policies ageing population
14 Report on a study for the Victorian Department of Treasury & Finance Guesstimates of likely effects of policies on participation rates - by gender and age-groups Who will be affected, when, how much? Education cohort effect, 20+, 2017 Childcare women only, 25+, 2005 Health small change, 35+, 2012 Welfare men & women, 55+, 2005 Pensions women & men, 60+, 2013
15 Policy Effects on Age-Specific Participation Rates: Males (percentage point increase) Age group Education attainment Better childcare Better health Welfare reforms Delayed retirement
16 Policy Effects on Age-Specific Participation Rates: Females (percentage point increase) Age group Education attainment Better childcare Better health Welfare reforms Delayed retirement
17 Gradual shift upwards 100 Male Participation Rates 90 Female Participation Rates scenario scenario
18 Can policies improve participation rates? Aggregate Participation Rate (Victoria) policies ageing population
19 Range of Policies! Policy option Improved educational attainment Improved childcare services Improved health Welfare reforms Delayed retirement Contribution to improvement in participation rates 4.7 % 1.1 % 0.9 % 2.5 % 1.6 %
20 Where will our workers come from? 20-24: improved education attainment 25-54: childcare (women) 35-54: health & welfare 55+ : pensions & retirement policies
21 more Ps? probabilities & possibilities Professors or Plumbers skills? Public/Private health care lifestyle? Parental-support working environment? Pensions financial incentives? Payment of benefits welfare dependency?
22 Pessimistic/Optimistic scenario? Old of tomorrow different from old of today better educated, healthier more technological advances? Projections not Forecasts
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