National Accounts of Sri Lanka. Country Report. Introduction

Transcription

1 National Accounts of Sri Lanka Country Report Introduction Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) is the national statistics office (NSO) of the country. DCS is conducting census, surveys and compiling national account estimates to produce quality and timely data needs. It has number of sub divisions for each domain of statistics and there is a separate division called National Accounts Division for the macroeconomic indicators including national accounts. National Accounts Division (NAD) of the DCS compiles and disseminates annual GDP estimates by production, Income and by expenditure approach. Quarterly GDP (QGDP) estimates are released only by production and expenditure approaches. QGDP by expenditure approach released from the base year revision (2010) from the year National accounts including GDP are produced in both current and constant (2010 base year) prices. The DCS has updated the base year of National Accounts from 2002 to 2010 with the technical assistance from the IMF and ADB. NAD had implemented SNA 2008 recommendations with most of the possible areas with the base year revision Main improvements are listed below; Changing the base year (from 2002 to 2010), Adoption of Classification of Sectors, Expansion of production boundary, Adoption of new versions of classifications (ISIC R.4, CPC V.2, COICOP, COFOG, etc...), Inclusion of economic activities of households, Adoption of recommendations of United Nations System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA), Inclusion of much accurate data sources, Supply and Use Table (SUT) for the year 2010 and 2011 and, Input-Output Tables etc. 1. Quarterly national Accounts (QGDP) of Sri Lanka Compilation of quarterly national accounts is based on the 2008 SNA and other manuals including IMF manual on QGDP devoted to this task. Even though the DCS implemented 2008 SNA, it contains no chapter specifically addressing quarterly national accounts issues, but the same principles, classifications, definitions and overall coverage as for annual national accounts apply. The IMF manual on QGDP includes number of chapters dedicated to this issue. Sri Lanka is maintaining two important requirements for quarterly national accounts. Quarterly national accounts must be: available as soon as possible after the end of the reference period; and as accurate as is feasible to require as little subsequent revision as possible. All possible data sources were used for the annual estimates and therefore, the benchmarking method is the main technique used in the quarterly national account estimations. Results of quarterly national accounts are available after 75 days each quarter.

2 NAD has aggregated all economic activities of the ISIC R.4 in to 79 economic activities. All estimates are done by those 79 activities annually and quarterly. It has summarized in to 48 (A48) activities and 10 activities (A10) to present the GDP estimates following the SNA and manual of ISIC R.4. These tables are attached as annexes. 1.1 Annual GDP estimates; Data sources Main data sources for the annual estimates are as follows, Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), Annual Surveys of agriculture crops (crop cutting surveys, annual production surveys etc...), Annual labor force survey (LFS), Household income and expenditure survey, Government finance statistics (Budget, state accounts, provincial councils and local governments), Annual construction survey, International trade statistics (custom data), Inland Revenue statistics (specially VAT data), Balance of payment (BoP), Administrative records of around 200 institutions and, Special surveys on cost structures of selected industries. 1.2 QGDP estimates; Data sources Quarterly estimates are done directly for the activities which are supported by the quarterly data source. Main data requirements for the QGDP are mainly quarterly output, Intermediate consumption, salaries and wages and few others. For those data requirements, DCS is conducting special quarterly survey to collect quarterly data from administrative sources. A questionnaire sent to the institutes listed in table 1 within 30 days of after each quarter. An indicator method or benchmarking method used to estimate activities which are not supported by the quarterly data. Table 1: List of institutions of the quarterly national accounts survey Tea Rubber Coconut Different Items Minor Export Crops Paddy Livestock Firewood & Forestry Fisheries Mining and quarrying Production, processing and preservation of meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, oils and fats Data sources Sri Lanka Tea Board for cost of production, prices and Agriculture Division of DCS and Customs for other information Rubber Development Department (RDD) for production, prices and cost of production and Customs for exports The Coconut Development Ministry for nut production and. The Excise Department for toddy. Other sources DCS and Customs. Export data from Department of Customs. Export data from Customs Department Production - Agriculture Division of DCS by crop cutting survey, Paddy Prices from the prices and wages division of DCS. Department of Agriculture for seed paddy producer price. Egg and milk production data from Agriculture division of DCS. Beef, pork mutton and chicken meat productions are from the Department of Animal Product and Health. Prices are from prices & wages division of DCS Timber production from State timber corporation. For production and prices Productions, exports, prices are from the Ministry of Fisheries & Aquatic resources Development Different sources such as Bogala Graphite Lanka Ltd, Lanka Phosphate Ltd, Tokyo Cement Company Ltd, Holcim Cement Company Ltd, Lanka, Mineral Sands Ltd, Puttalam Salt Ltd, Lanka Salt Ltd, Sri Lanka Gem & Jewellery Authority, Sri Lanka Customs, Road Development Authority and Annual Survey of Industries. Annual Survey of Industries

3 Production, transmission and distribution of electricity Collection, purification and distribution of water Construction Banking, Insurance & Real Sector Hotels and restaurants Land transport; transport via pipelines Water transport Air transport Supporting and auxiliary transport activities; activities of travel agencies Post and telecommunications Services Taxes less subsidies Household consumption expenditure General government consumption expenditure Ceylon Electricity Board National Water Supply and Drainage Board Holcim Lanka Ltd, Tokyo Cement Company Ltd, Institute of Construction Training and Development (ICTAD), Road Development Authority, National Housing Development Authority, Sri Lanka Customs, Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Annual Survey of Construction Industries Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Directly from the banks, Registered Finance Companies, Insurance Co Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority Sri Lanka Transport Commission, Sri Lanka Transport Board, Sri Lanka Railway, Department of Motor Traffic, Price and Wages Division of DCS, Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the Department of Labour Ceylon Shipping Corporation Sri Lankan Air Line, Mihin Air Line Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority Department of Postal, Sri Telecom Mobitel Pvt Ltd, Dialog Pvt Ltd, Etisalat Lanka Pvt ltd, Bharti Airtel Lanka Pvt Ltd,Lanka Bell Pvt Ltd, Hutchison, Telecommunications Regulatory Commission, Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation, Sri Lanka Broadcasting Corporation, Sirasa Rupavahini, Swarnavahini, ART Television Broadcasting Company, Derana Rupavahini, Dialog Television Group, Independent Television Network Ltd, Mostly VAT data, Inland revenue department Department of Island Revenue, Sri Lanka Customs and State Accounts HIES survey based data formats While the expenditure on education and health were treated as individual expenditure of general government, collective consumption included expenditure on public administration and defence, compulsory social security services and other services not elsewhere classified. Gross fixed capital formation This includes mainly construction, machinery, transport equipment, and land improvement and plantation development. Sri Lankan Customs, government budgetary information and construction sector output were used as data sources. 1.3 Issues in QGDP Issues related to the existing QGDP are listed below; Separate estimate for the NPISHs Data sources for the service activities; Trade, transport, personal services etc Quarterly survey on household consumption Quarterly capital formation data Quarterly data on change in inventory by activities and by sectors A quarterly survey on service activities are planned to conduct from the year 2017 but DCS has no idea on the household production and consumption data for quarterly estimates. Main issues to be addressed are listed below; Statistics on NPISHs Statistics on household production and consumption Statistics on household constructions Statistics on trade, transport and service activities Statistics on inventories or inclusion of data collection on inventories with the existing surveys

4 Statistics on capital formation and the capital stock statistics Statistics on other changes on volume of assets Statistics on revaluations of assets On the other hand, the department is planning to implement seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP before the next base year revision. Chain linking the national accounts is on the top of the list with the next base year revision.

5 2. Next base year revision base year 2015 The NAD of DCS is planning to revise the base year in every five years and next base year revision is scheduled to finalize before end of the year New base period will be year DCS is planning to implement SNA 2008 fully with the contemporary National Accounting framework with the base year revision of National Accounts to the year Compiling the sequence of accounts up to at least capital account or financial account, compiling the seasonally adjusted QGDP, and new surveys on service activities are on the way from the previous base year revision project and the rest of SNA 2008 recommendations including sequence of accounts from other changes in volume of asset account up to the balance sheet and chain linking the national accounts are the main areas to be covered with this proposed project. 2.1 Necessary steps to be followed in the rebasing process Although SNA recommends changing the base year in every year, normally countries change the base year once in every five years due to practical problems. SNA does not recommend changing the base period quarterly. Stages of the rebasing process can be pointed out as follows; 1. Selection of the new base year a. This year should be a normal year that there were no large fluctuations of main macroeconomic variables. b. Increase the coverage of economic activities 2. Economic activities should be identified according to International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) a. Data should be collected with respect to the institutional sectors b. Administrative reports should be used to cover activities that cannot be covered by existing surveys and Censuses c. Ad-hock surveys or quick surveys should be used to capture economic activities that cannot be covered by surveys or administrative reports. 3. Price statistics and volume indices should be calculated and collected from other organizations as much as most disaggregated level. 4. New time series should be created for above indices when the base year of these indices differs from suggested new base year of national accounts. 5. National Accounts estimates should be compiled in most disaggregated level. a. Although estimates are published in aggregated level it is better to maintain worksheets in disaggregated level and generate tables so that compare with different classifications 6. Constant price estimates should be also compiled in disaggregated level by using extrapolation, deflation or revaluation methods. 7. Supply and Use table should be generated at first in annual estimates as it provides economic indicators for GDP calculation for all three approaches. 8. Make aware the general public and other relevant institutes about rebasing and importance of it. 9. Estimates according to previous base year should be published at least two more years for the comparison purpose. 10. A detailed description regarding the changes of data series due to rebasing should be published for data users by the NAD of DCS.

6 2.2 Surveys to be conducted Base year revision starts with a detailed SUT compiled through the economic census 2013/14. SUT is a detailed breakdown of industries and products and it shows who produces goods and services and who is using those goods and services. Even though the result of Economic Census is available, we need detailed intermediate uses of each and every industry and for each and every product. To compile a detailed SUT, the DCS is planned to collect more information by conducting simple Cost of Production Surveys for selected industries. These surveys are a simple and designed to measure the intermediate uses, input output ratios, and other factors to be used in the SUT system Cost of production surveys for Agriculture: I. Paddy, Tea, Rubber, Coconut, Highland Vegetables, Low country vegetables, Export crops, Fruits, and other agricultural products II. Survey on flower growing, nurseries, plant propagation and gardening III. Survey on timber, and other forest products IV. Animal production surveys V. Intermediate use survey for inland fishing, marine fishing Intermediate use surveys for Industries: I. Cost survey for sand metal and lime production II. Cost of production survey for small scale power generation plants and private power generation plants III. Intermediate use surveys for selected food manufacturing industries IV. Intermediate use survey of heavy manufacturing industries V. Intermediate use surveys for other manufacturing industries VI. Raw material use and estimation of work-in-progress survey of construction activities Intermediate use surveys for Services: I. Intermediate use surveys for three wheeler transport, passenger transport using buses, goods transports by Lorries and other heavy vehicles, other transportations including school services II. Survey on cost of wholesale and retail trade III. Survey on private health services and private education services IV. Survey on hotels and restaurants V. Intermediate use survey for services done by households VI. Survey on IT, software development, and business process outsourcing VII. Survey on professional services including architecture, legal services, accounting and other consultancies VIII. Survey on advertising and research & development IX. Surveys on other selected services 2.3 Issues and technical support required Even though trainings and capacity building programs is required with the proposed project, the DCS has the technical capacity to implement the above proposed project. However, technical support for the following areas are required; Seasonal adjustments,

7 Chain linking, Compilation of accounts from other changes of volume of assets account, Compilation of annual Supply and Use Tables (SUT) and, Compilation of SUT at constant prices. 3. Steps taken to maintain the quality 3.1 Quality assurance Quality assurance is highly considered with the national accounts estimates and various steps taken with the base year revision Following are the main steps taken; User friendly separate web page for national accounts and presentation of results in a comprehensive structure. ( The details of information disseminated according to target audience is available on request Advanced data released calendar: data release dates are published annually and changes are made before a week. ( Provision of all necessary methodological explanations, to help users understand national accounts concepts. ( 3.1 Revision policy Benchmarking and indicator method has used numbers of indicators in compiling QGDP. However, there are instances where the required data are not available at the time of data release. Therefore, the QGDP released need to be updated when the data is available. This is one of the reasons for having a revision policy. The DCS introduced a revision policy for national accounts with the changing of the base year. Data releasing calendar of national accounts which prepared based on the revision policy for year 2016 is given below. ( National Accounts estimates (Quarterly and Annually) for the year 2016 will be released according to the following time schedule. Data release First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Forth Quarter Annual Estimates Provisional Estimates June. 15, 2016 Sept. 15, 2016 Dec. 15, 2016 March. 15, 2017 March. 15, 2017 Revision(s) to Provisional Estimates Sept. 15, 2016, Dec. 15, 2016 Dec. 15, 2016 Annual Revisions March 15, 2017, March. 15, 2018 March 15, 2017, March. 15, 2018 March 15, 2017, March. 15, 2018 March. 15, 2018 March. 15, 2018 Finalized Estimates March. 15, 2019 March. 15, 2019 March. 15, 2019 March. 15, 2019 March. 15, 2019 a. All Q estimates of the year 2015 may be revise until March 15, 2016 If there is any revision in Q estimates after 15th March 2016, the revised estimates will be released only with annual estimates of following years These dates are subjectd to change and revisions will be noticed through the advanced data released calendar.

8 Annex 1: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Production Approach, (A10: SNA p. 400) # ISIC Value Added (VA) by activity NFC FC GG 1 A Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 2 B,C,D & E Manufacturing, mining and quarrying and other industry 2.1 C Of which : Manufacturing activities 3 F Construction 4 G,H & I Wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, accommodation and food service activities 5 J Information and communication 6 K Financial and insurance activities 7 L Real estate activities (including ownership of dwelling) 8 M & N Professional, scientific, technical, administration and support service activities 9 O,P & Q Public administration, defense, education, human health and social work activities 10 R,S,T & U Other services (excluding own-services) Equals Gross Value Added (GVA), at basic price (+) Taxes on products (-) Subsidies on products Equals GDP at market price Source: HH & NPISH International Standards Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC), Rev.4, Series M No.4, Rev.4, United Nations, (p. 274) SNA 2008 (p. 400) Total Economy

9 Annex 2: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Production Approach, (A48) # Code Gross Value Added (GVA) by economic activity (SLSIC) NFC FC GG HH & NPISH Total Economy Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Growing of Cereals (except rice) Growing of Rice Growing of Vegetables , 0115, 01Growing of Suger cane, tobacco and other non-perennial crops Growing of fruits Growing of Oleaginous Fruits (Coconut, king coconut, Oil palm) Growing of Tea (Green leaves) Growing of other beverage crops (Coffee, Cocoa etc..) Growing of spices, aromatic, drug and pharmaceutical crops Growing of rubber Growing of other perennial crops Animal Production Plant propagation and agricultural supporting activities Forestry and Logging ,0321 Marine fishing and Marine Aquaculture , 0322 Fresh water fishing and Fresh water Aquaculture Industries Mining and quarrying 18 10, 11, 12 Manufacture of food, beverages & Tobacco products 19 13, 14, 15 Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and other related products Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting material 21 17, 18 Manufacture of paper & paper products, printing and reproduction of media products Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products 23 20, 21 Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations Manufacture of rubber and plastic products Manufacture of other non- metallic mineral products 26 24, 25 Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products (except machinery and equipment) to 30 Manufacture of machinery and equipment i.e Manufacture of furniture 29 32, 33 Other manufacturing and Repair and installation of machinery and equipment Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Water collection, treatment and supply 32 37, 38 Sewerage, Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery 33 41, 42, 43 Construction Services 34 45, 46, 47 Wholesale and retail trade to 52 Transportation of goods and passengers (Land, Water and Air) & Warehousing activities Postal and courier activities 37 55, 56 Accommodation, Food and beverage service activities 38 59, 60 Programming and broadcasting activities and audio video productions Telecommunication 40 62, 63 Computer programming consultancy and related activities, Information service activities 41 64, 66 Financial Service activities, except insurance and pension funding and auxiliary financial services Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding except compulsory social security Real estate activities, Including Ownership of dwelling to 82 Professional services Public administration and defense; compulsory social security Education 47 86, 87, 88 Human health activities and Residential care activities, social work activities to 96 Other personal service activities Equals Gross Value Added (GVA), at basic price (+) Taxes on products (-) Subsidies on products Equals GDP at market price

10 Annex 3: National Accounts compilation category map Compilation category SLSIC Code Activity (by SLSIC) ISIC/SLSIC Section code A48 Item Number Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Growing of Cereals (except rice) A Growing of Rice A Growing of Vegetables A Growing of Sugar cane A Growing of tobacco A Growing of other non-perennial crops A Growing of fruit A Growing of Oleaginous Fruits (Coconut, king coconut, Oil palm) A Growing of Tea (Green leaves) A Growing of other beverage crops (Coffee, Cocoa etc..) A Growing of spices, aromatic, drug and pharmaceutical crops A Growing of rubber A Growing of Betel A Toddy tapping A Growing of other perennial crops such as jak fruit, Bread fruit, etc. A , 01294, Growing of other perennial crops A Plant propagation A Animal Production A Agricultural supporting activities A Forestry and Logging A ,0321 Marine fishing and Marine Aquaculture A , 0322 Fresh water fishing and Fresh water Aquaculture A , 08, 09 Mining & quarrying, Electricity & Water, Construction and Manufacturing Industries Mining and quarrying B Manufacture of food products C Manufacture of beverages C Manufacture of tobacco products C Manufacture of textiles C Manufacture of wearing apparel C Manufacture of leather and related products C Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and pl C Manufacture of paper and paper products C Printing and reproduction of recorded media C Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products C Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products C Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations C Manufacture of rubber and plastic products C Manufacture of other non- metallic mineral products C Manufacture of basic metals C Manufacture of fabricated metal products (except machinery and equipment) C Manufacture of computers, electronics and optical products C Manufacture of electrical equipment C Manufacture of machinery and equipment i.e.. C Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers C Manufacture of other transport equipment C Manufacture of furniture C Other manufacturing C Repair and installation of machinery and equipment C Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply D Water collection, treatment and supply E , 38 Sewerage, Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery E , 42, 43 Construction F 33 3 Services 52 45, 46, 47 Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles G Land transport and transport via pipelines H Water transport H Air transport H Warehousing and support activities for transportation H Postal and courier activities H , 56 Accommodation, Food and beverage service activities I Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording, and music publishing activities J Programming and broadcasting activities J Telecommunication J , 63 Computer programming consultancy and related activities, Information service activities J , 66 Financial Service activities, except insurance and pension funding and auxiliary financial services K Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding except compulsory social security K Real estate activities, Including Ownership of dwelling L , 70 Legal and accounting activities and activities of head offices, management consultancy activities M Architectural and engineering activities, technical testing and analysis M Scientific research and development M , 74, 58 Advertising and market research, other professional, scientific and technical activities and publishing activities M Veterinary activities M Rental and leasing activities N , 79, 80 Employment, Travel Agency services, Security and investigation activities N , 82 Services to building and landscape activities, Office administrative, office support and other business support activi N Public administration and defense; compulsory social security O Education P Human health activities Q , 88 Residential care activities, social work activities Q , 91, 92, 93 Arts, entertainment and recreation (sports etc..) R , 95, 96 Other personal service activities S A10 Item Number