Overview of GDP Compilation Practises

Transcription

1 Overview of GDP Compilation Practises Willie Lahari Ministry of Finance and Treasury/RAMSI PO Box G6, Honiara, Solomon Islands PFTAC Central Bank Training 2011, Suva August 15-19, 2011

2 Overview of GDP Compilation Practises General Outline System of National Accounts (SNA) Framework (1993,2008; earlier vers.) GDP Compilation Approaches Production Income Expenditure Institutional Sectors Major Data Sources Instruments for Data Capture Some Challenges PFTAC Central Bank Training 2011, Suva August 15-19, 2011

3 System of National Accounts (SNA)Framework The SNA is an internationally agreed set of accounting descriptions that are fully integrated, coherent and consistent on how to compile measures of economic activity within the economy including the sectors and sub-sectors of the economy. The SNA describes a set of agreed definitions, concepts, classifications and accounting rules. The SNA consists of all economic flows (transactions/other flows) within a time period (year, quarter, etc) between the economic agents (households, firms, government, ROW) constituting the national economy and their stocks (assets/liabilities) National Accounts is governed by international reference manuals: the System of National Accounts 1993, 2008, recognized globally; the European version, the European System of Accounts. The SNA 93, 2008 manual is co-signed by the five major international economic organizations: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, the World Bank and the European Commission

4 System of National Accounts Framework Linkages with other frameworks (e.g., GFS, BOP) Flexible in extending to related accounts: Satellite Accounts Social Accounting Matrices Environmental Accounts Annual and Quarterly Accounts Super Regional Accounts The SNA and related frameworks (GFS, BOP etc) are used by all PICs/NSOs in the compilation of their GDP and related macroeconomic aggregates mainly on an annual basis Samoa is the first PIC to embark on quarterly GDP compilation, generally, attempting to follow the SNA compilation approach taking into account country context/realities.

5 Compilation GDP is compiled from the three main approaches: 1. Production Approach 2. Expenditure Approach 3. Income Approach Data from the above main approaches also provides basis for wider sequence of accounts (e.g., Sub-accounts) Other Approaches-using commodity flow balances in a Supply and Use frame work Some PICs (e.g., Solomon Islands) compile GDP based only on the Production and Expenditure measures of GDP

6 ...Compilation GDP: Production Approach GDP = of Value Added of Industries (Agri, Forestry, Retail, etc) + Net Taxes and Subsidies on Products (only when output is valued at basic prices) Value Added = Output - Intermediate Consumption. 2. GDP: Expenditure Approach GDP = Household Consumption Expenditure + Government Consumption Expenditure + Non-Profit Inst. Serving Hholds Consumption Expenditure + Gross Capital Formation + Exports -Imports 3. GDP: Income Approach GDP = Wages and Salaries + Operating Surplus + Net Taxes and Subsidies on Production and Imports

7 Main Institutional Sectors The Institutional Sectors consist of groupings of Institutional Units. Non-financial Corporations (e.g., retail outlets) Financial Corporations (e.g., banks) General Government Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) Households The Rest of the World (ROW) The ROW is not really an institutional sector because it consists of only that part of the accounts of non-resident units that relates to transactions with resident units.

8 Some Major Data Sources/Instruments for Data Capture: Business/Establishment Survey (mainly annual) Employment Survey (mainly annual) Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) (5 to10-yearly?) Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Quarterly; Monthly) National Population Census (mainly 10 years) Other targeted Ad-hoc Surveys: Agriculture Survey/Census Labour force Survey Informal Sector Survey Transport Survey

9 Some Major Data Sources/Instruments for Data Capture: Main Administrative Data Sources: Customs Data (Merchandise trade Imports/Exports) (quarterly) Central Bank (BOP Data) and Monetary aggregates (e.g., M1-3) (quarterly) Inland Revenue /TAX (e.g., VAT Data, Excise duties) (quarterly, monthly) Commodity Boards (e.g., Cocoa/Copra volumes) (quarterly, monthly) National Provident Fund (employment, savings etc) (monthly, quarterly) Agriculture, Fisheries Ministries (data on forestry (log volumes), fisheries etc (quarterly, monthly) Price and Volume Measures: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (quarterly, monthly) Production Index (annual) Manufacturing Index (annual) Import and Export Price Indexes (quarterly, monthly) Building Materials Index (annual) Implicit Price Deflators etc (annual)

10 Some Challenges for Sub-Annual (qtrly) GDP Accounts/Estimates Current weaknesses in the National Statistical Systems across PICs// Supply and Demand Issues Statistical Culture (Govt. Depts, firms, NGOs etc do not keep proper records; different accounting systems etc, low response rates...) Lack of local demand for sub-annual estimates (only donors wanting it?) Inadequate funding/resources for NSOs Shortage of Technical Skills/Research & Analysis capacity among PICs Thus the challenge is also to find alternative/innovative and cheaper methods to estimate sub-annual (quarterly) GDP estimates

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