Pendle. Local Migration Profile No. 6 Summer 2011

Transcription

1 Pendle Local Migration Profile No. 6 Summer 2011 Contents 1. Overall immigration trends (Charts ) p2 2. Migrant workers (Charts ) p6 3. Non-British and non-uk born population, fertility, GP registrations, students (Charts ) p9 Data sources, data sharing and abbreviations p12 About this Profile p13 Summary of Pendle Migration Trends 1 2 The local population 1 was estimated at 89,000 people in 2009, of whom approximately 6,000 were non-uk nationals. The population 1 was unaltered on 2004 levels. The number of non-uk nationals 1 was up by 6,000. The fertility rate in 2009 was above replacement level. 25% of births in 2009 were to non-uk born mothers. An estimated 216 long-term international migrants 2 arrived in Pendle during 2009/10. However some people left the country during this period. There was an estimated net inflow of long-term international migrants² of 59. It is estimated that in 2016 the numbers of people entering and leaving will be roughly in balance. Around 1,130 short-term migrants arrived in Pendle in 2007, of which 220 were workers. In 2010 National Insurance Numbers were issued to Pendle-resident non-uk nationals from 11 countries including Pakistan, Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Germany There were estimated to be no overseas students studying in Pendle in 2009/10. In 2010 there were 12,889 school children educated by Lancashire County Council (9.01% of the total), whose first language was known or believed to be other than English. These figure exclude short-term migrants (staying for less than 12 months) and most people living in communal establishments such as student accommodation, hostels, hotels and guest-houses. long-term international migrants refers to people entering or leaving the UK for more than 1 year, and includes British nationals returning or leaving. Please note that the estimate for people entering may be outstripped by administrative data such as NI registrations. Important! Data-sharing Please refer to details about data sharing shown on page 12.

2 1 Overall immigration trends This section gives an overview of all the data we have on migrants in the area Page 2 of 13

3 1.1 Immigration Trends This chart shows three sources of data which estimate the number of new, long-term migrants arriving in the area each year. The three sources measure slightly different things, but comparing them is useful to be more confident in the general migration trend shown and to have a reasonable estimate of the number of new migrants in the area each year. Official estimates of migrant populations (MYE) show long-term immigration (over 12months stay) and include all types of long-term migrant. ONS makes estimates because there is no national population register. Flag 4 measures new GP registrations of people whose previous address was not in the UK. It will capture all migrant groups who choose to register (so young males and short term migrants may be underrepresented, but it may highlight families joining an earlier arrival). There is likely to be a delay between arriving in the UK and registering with a GP. NINO shows the number of migrants who have a new national insurance number. This covers any short or long-term worker who is employed or self-employed, plus non-workers who are claiming benefits. There is likely to be a delay between arriving in the UK and registering for a NINO. The closer the fit of the three sources, the more we can be sure of the overall picture. It is reasonable to expect the official estimate of the number of new migrants (MYE) to be slightly higher than the Flag 4 and NINOs (as these latter 2 sources may omit some sections of the migrant community). Where this does not occur, the MYE may not be an accurate estimate. You might expect higher NINO than Flag 4 if migration has been recently dominated by Accession workers, but for Flag 4 to increase a few years later when some families may join the original migrant. Chart 1.2 Official Statistics: Net Migration Chart 1.2 shows two different types of estimated net migration: net international migration of long term migrants net internal migration of anyone moving in or out of the local area. The navy blue bars estimate net international migration that is, the balance between people who have arrived and people who have left the UK each year. Positive net migration means that there was more immigration than emigration in that year. A trend of positive net migration will suggest a growing migrant population in the area. The pale blue bars estimate net internal migration that is, the movement of people between places within the UK this includes everyone (migrants and non-migrants). Negative net internal migration shows that more people moved out of the area (to somewhere else in the UK) than moved into it that year, and will cause a decrease in the overall local population in the area. This should be considered in light of the fertility rate though, which might effectively cancel out this decrease (see Chart 3.3). The estimates are for long-term migrants those who are in the UK for more than 12 months. They include UK nationals who are returning from living abroad. Total immigration and emigration figures (combining to produce the net amount shown here) for a particular year, plus projections, are shown in Charts 1.3 and 1.4. Internal migration is estimated using GP registration data, so there may be some delay after relocating in re-registering with a GP. Page 3 of 13

4 Chart 1.3 TIM Immigration & Emigration Chart 1.3 shows the long-term estimate of total immigration and emigration for the area. This graph builds on the dark blue bars showing net migration in Chart 1.2 by showing how overall net migration is composed of immigration minus emigration, and also what the official estimates for the long term are until The bigger the difference between the two lines, the bigger the overall effect of migration on the size of the local population. Notice that the scale along the bottom changes: annual until 2009, 2 years until year intervals thereafter. Chart 1.4 TIM Net Migration Chart 1.4 presents the same information as Chart 2.3, but highlighting the overall effect of both immigration and emigration on an area i.e. net migration. This gives an estimate of by how much the population is increasing (or decreasing) each year due to international migration. Each bar shows the number of additional migrants each year in the population. Any gaps (where there is no bar) shows that while there was migration, immigration and emigration levels were exactly the same and so there was no change in the overall number of migrants in the area (they were just different individuals so suggests a lot of churn in the migrant population). While Chart 1.3 often shows increasing mobility over time in and out of the area, this chart usually shows that the difference between them is relatively stable over time and therefore assumes a predictable population change from international migration. Again, this chart often shows a small net increase around 2005 showing the net effect of EU Accession in context. Chart 1.5 Migrant Counts, 2009 Chart 1.3 shows the level of migration recorded by each dataset for They don t all measure the same thing! The chart gives a sense of the different types of migrant groups in the area, and their relative group size. Page 4 of 13

5 Each bar gives you a different type of data that was recorded for the year in question. Unless otherwise stated, this is 2009: MYE Immig MYE Emig NINo Flag 4 WRS HESA STM Pupil Language An estimate of the total number of international migrants entering the region from abroad (to the nearest 100) An estimate of the total number of people leaving the region for a different country (to the nearest 100) (the difference between the two gives the net migration described in Chart 1.2) The number of new National Insurance numbers issued to foreign nationals in 2009 showing all new migrants who are working or claiming benefits The number of people registering with a GP whose previous address was outside the UK so includes all types of migrants The number of people from EU Accession states (A8) registering to work in the area (based on the employer s address) The number of international students registered at a higher education institution in the area An estimate of short term migrants arriving (mostly non-workers) who stay for less than a year The number of school children whose first language is known or believed to be other than English (Not shown for lower tier authorities in Cumbria and Lancashire. Please refer to chart 3.7) It is usual for the number of short term migrants (STM) to be much higher than the other indicators, as they are visitors rather than intending to settle for some time. You would also expect that WRS would be smaller than NINO as it is a subset of only 8 countries if it is not, Accession migrants may live outside the area and commute some distance to work. Chart 1.6 Share of Region Chart 1.6 shows the scale of migrant flows as a share of the North West total, and shows how the area compares to other localities in the region. This chart is linked to the previous chart 1.5. At the top you can see the proportion of the region s population that live in this area. You can then compare this figure with each of the data sources, to see the relative size of each migrant flow and if the area has a concentration of particular migrant groups. Two of the indicators show migrant groups that tend to be concentrated in particular parts of the North West: HESA will show high student numbers if there are a number of universities in the area, and it appears that migrant workers from A8 states (WRS data) are also concentrated. Page 5 of 13

6 2 Migrant Workers This page gives more detail about migrants who have come to the area to work. Page 6 of 13

7 Chart 2.1 NINO Trends Chart 2.1 shows the total number of migrants receiving a new national insurance number each year; it also shows the impact of new countries joining the EU by dividing this total between Accession and non-accession migrants. The green line showing the total number of NINO registrations is identical to that in Chart 1.1. This chart is most useful in comparing the balance between migrants from all Accession states (black line) and those from all other countries (red line) as it shows what a significant and sudden difference the expansion of the EU made locally, and what longer-term migration has existed from elsewhere. Generally, the levels of non-accession migration have been quite stable since They give a baseline indication of what migration levels will be like if the decline in Accession migration (which was mainly during 2008 and 2009) continues. Accession states here include all 12 who have joined the EU since The non-accession group covers all other countries likely to be mainly Commonwealth but also other EU states. The next chart breaks down this non-accession group further. Chart 2.2 NINO Country of Origin - Groups Chart 2.2 gives more detail on the breakdown of where migrant workers have come from, dividing new NINO registrations into relevant groups of Accession, other Europe, new and old Commonwealth, and all other countries of origin such as the US and South America, the Middle East and some Asian states. Most areas show a significantly higher black bar (Accession immigration) than all of the others each year after 2004, a kind of before and after the expansion of the EU. The key is to look at how big a difference this is, and how the other groups are balanced. The breakdown of NINOs in this way shows some longer-term historical immigration trends in particular areas, while others are completely dominated by new Accession migrants having had very little immigration prior to EU expansion in This may explain some of the shock headlines about migrant workers seen in more rural areas in recent years. Totals are available for individual countries of origin (but not practical to reproduce in a graph due to the large number of countries involved). Chart 2.3 NINO Country of Origin - Countries Chart 2.3 examines National Insurance No registrations during 2009 by country of origin in more detail. The top 15 countries-of-origin across the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber regions have been identified, with counts displayed for each area. This chart takes no account of NiNo registrations to people from countries other than the top 15 In all areas Poland is in the top five countries. The extent to which countries outside A8 and A2 are represented is likely to reflect the size of communities from such countries prior to EU accession. The top 15 for an individual area may not coincide with the regional top 15. There may therefore be countries not shown, that have higher scores than some included countries. Totals are available for individual countries of origin (but not practical to reproduce in a graph due to the large number of countries involved). Page 7 of 13

8 Chart 2.4 Worker Registration Scheme (4 graphs) The first graph shows the number of new migrant workers from A8 countries who have registered to work in the area since the EU expanded in Selected characteristics of new A8 migrants who registered during the past year are shown in the remaining charts They also show how these characteristics compare to the North West region as a whole. The number of WRS registrations should mirror the pattern of the black line in Chart 2.1 and the black bars in Chart 2.2, although some difference may occur if migrants are commuting to work in a different area to where they are living. Comparing to these two charts keeps the WRS data in proportion to all other migrant workers. Most commonly, localities show a peak in the number of new WRS registrations in Note the scale here compared to the NINO registrations, as in some areas the WRS numbers are relatively small. Age profiles almost always reflect the general population structure i.e. higher numbers of working age migrants usually from 18-34years. Most people registering are intending to work in Administration and Business which doesn t tell us very much apart from the instability of the work situation for WRS applicants, as this includes agencies whose vacancies might arise in any industrial sector. An increase in any other industry over the regional average should reflect a local industrial niche. Finally, while Poland is typically the country of origin, there are clusters of other nationality groups in certain areas which can be identified when they are above the regional average. This data is based on the postcode of the employer, rather than where the migrant lives. Given migrant workers are often more willing to travel long distances to work, this data reflects who is working in the area rather than necessarily where migrant workers live. The WRS excludes those who are not working, those who are self-employed or working for a non-uk based company, or those who have dual citizenship of the UK/EEA. Migrants do not have to de-register so we don t know how many have left the area or the UK; however they might re-register if they change employer. There may be some delay between this data (which shows when the application was approved) and arrival in the UK, and the registration is recorded for their first job in the UK. One of the WRS variables is the number of dependents that a migrant worker brings to the UK. Page 8 of 13

9 3 Non-British and non-uk born population, fertility, GP registrations, students This page is an assortment of data sources that are indicators of different types of migration. Page 9 of 13

10 Chart 3.1 Nationality: non-british and Chart 3.2 Country of Birth: non-uk What do they show? Chart 3.1 shows the proportion of the local population that is not British, and how this compares to the North West average (shown by the black line). Chart 3.2 shows the proportion of the local population that was born outside of the UK, and how this compares to the North West average. How do I interpret them? This data confirms how long-term migrants have affected the population structure in the area over time, showing the migrant stocks rather than flows. However, the difference between the graph showing non-british nationality, and the graph showing non-uk born, should be noted. Most localities will show a slowly increasing trend in both graphs, showing a small increase in the proportion of people who are not British, and in the proportion of those who weren t born in the UK i.e. generally increased diversity over time. There tend to be more people in the area who were born outside the UK than those who are not British. The data comes from the Annual Population Survey from ONS. It excludes people who live in communal establishments. Chart 3.3 Total Fertility Rate and Chart 3.4 Births to non-uk born mothers What do they show? Chart 3.3 shows the average number of children that are born to any woman living in this area during her lifetime (red line), and compares this to the regional average. Chart 3.4 shows the proportion of births in the local area to mothers who were not born in the UK. Comparing this to the regional average show the influence of local factors. How do I interpret them? Together, these two charts show the likely impact of migrants on the longer term population profile in local areas. Most areas show a slightly increasing fertility rate over time across the general population in the recent past. This increase is explained by a number of factors including increased fertility among women in their thirties and forties, and the fact that immigration has increased the number of women of child-bearing age and who are likely to have more children. If a local area has a high fertility rate (over 2.1), the existing population is probably growing without any additional immigration in the future. The increased numbers of children each year will eventually have an impact, for example, upon demand for nursery and school places. If the area has a rising rate of births to non-uk born mothers, then the population will become more diverse over time seen, for example, in the range of languages spoken in schools. The greater the proportion of these births, the quicker the effects will be seen. This change will appear even more noticeable if the general fertility rate is low, as the existing (mainly British) population will be reducing over time. A TFR of 2.1 is usually described as the replacement level i.e. the number of children that are needed to be born to a woman in order for the population to replace itself, but most economically advanced countries have a lower TFR than this (hence the frequent description of an ageing population and a need for a larger working age population to support the retired age group). The provisional TFR for 2009 is 1.95 children per woman in England and Wales. This represents a slight decrease in fertility from 1.97 in This is the first annual decrease since 2001 when the TFR was 1.63, having fallen from 1.65 in The 2009 TFR of 1.95 is still relatively high compared with recent years, although it is notably lower than in the 1960s when it reached a peak of 2.93 in 1964 (the baby boom). However, it is still below the replacement level, and in the long-term, the population would be falling if there was no net migration to the UK. Page 10 of 13

11 Chart 3.5 GP Registrations per 1000 The number of people registering with a doctor, for the first time since living abroad, for every 1000 of the population. GP registration is a proxy indicator of long-term migration. This graph shows the same pattern as Chart 1.1 where the actual number of registrations is shown. This graph shows the same trend, but allows you to compare different localities, by looking at their relative effect on the local population in effect, an admission rate. Comparing this rate to the regional average allows explanation using local factors. For example, a higher rate than the regional average may be explained by the presence of a university with lots of international students (see Chart 3.6). Alternatively it may show the longer-term settlement of some migrants who may have delayed registration with a GP themselves but are now bringing their families to the UK. This dataset was not designed to measure international migration and will not cover every relevant migrant. Registering with a GP is not compulsory and so will not cover everyone; many will only register when they need medical attention and so there is likely to be a time lag between arrival and appearing in the registration statistics. This data will also include British citizens who return to the area having lived abroad. It will exclude those migrants who registered with one GP then moved within the UK and re-registered with a different GP, as their previous address will have been in the UK. Chart 3.6 Foreign Students Domicile Chart 3.6 shows the total number of overseas students in higher education, analysed by whether their home country is within or outside of the European Union. This chart links to the HESA data in Charts 1.5 and 1.6 which showed the total number of international students for 2010 and the concentration of students compared to the rest of the region. Chart 3.6 shows the split between EU and non-eu students. It covers a six year period from The data is based upon the students registering at a particular institution in the area rather than their place of residence, although many students can be expected to live in the area where they study. Chart 3.7 Pupils by First Language Not English Chart 3.7 uses data collected by the Pupil Census for all Maintained Primary Schools and State-funded Secondary Schools and illustrates the percentage of children whose first language is something other than English. NOTE: This data is produced by the local education authorities, (LEAs), which are the metropolitan, unitary and county councils). Where the area covered by this profile is not the LEA (eg Cumbrian districts and non-unitaries in Lancashire) the information in this chart refers to the LEA. Page 11 of 13

12 Data Sources The graphs in this document are colour-coded to allow you to quickly identify which source has been used and how these should be shared. The tables below detail these sources. Data-sharing information Please acknowledge original sources when using information from this document. NINOs (National Insurance Numbers) are provided by the Department for Work and Pensions and are publicly available. Foreign Students data are provided by the Higher Education Statistics Agency and can be shared. WRS (Worker Registration Scheme statistics) are provided by the Department for Work and Pensions, and may now be shared publicly. Pupil Census data are provided by the Dept for Education. They may be reproduced freely within an organisation, but they must not be used for commercial use. Any reproduction of the data must acknowledge the Department for Education as the source. All other datasets here are provided by the Office for National Statistics and are publicly available. Abreviations Accession Three groups of countries who have recently joined the EU: states A8 (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) joined in 2004 A10 (A8 plus Malta and Cyprus) joined in 2004 A2 (Bulgaria and Romania) who joined in 2007 APS Annual Population Survey (from ONS) DWP Department for Work and Pensions EEA European Economic Area (comprises EU plus some other European states whose citizens have the same rights to enter, live and work in the UK) HESA Higher Education Statistics Agency IPS International Passenger Survey (from ONS) MYE Mid-year estimate (population estimate from ONS) NINO National Insurance Number (from DWP) NIRS National Insurance Recording System (for DWP s NINO statistics) ONS Office for National Statistics PRDS Patient Register Data Service (for GP registration statistics) RIES Refugee Integration and Employment Service SNPP Sub-national Population Projections (from ONS) STM Short-term migration (from ONS) TFR Total Fertility Rate (from ONS) TIM Total International Migration (from ONS) UKBA United Kingdom Border Agency WRS Worker Registration Scheme (from DWP) Page 12 of 13

13 About this Profile A key role of the North West Regional Strategic Migration Partnership is to provide information to partners to enable effective planning and delivery of services. Local Migration Profiles have been developed by the Partnership to share the latest available data about migration with regional partners in a consistent, coherent and accessible way. There is no easy way to define and count the number of migrants in any place at any particular time after how many years or generations does someone stop being a migrant? When does a visit turn into a migration? Are people moving to study but living permanently elsewhere migrants?. Nor is the process of migration a simple linear journey from place A to place B people are increasingly mobile and move at many different times in their lives, and may consider home to be in more than one country. What we can do is to look at the different information we hold on migrants themselves, migration counts and estimates made by the Office for National Statistics, and consider other datasets collected for other purposes ( administrative datasets) that might tell us something about migrants and migration patterns over time. The information contained in this Local Migration Profile is drawn from a range of sources, many of which are publicly available. The Partnership role has been to collate these in a central place in our Regional Migrant Databank - and explain their relevance to organisations concerned with migration. on these sources and how they should be used are given on page 15. The people living and working in a locality will be able to describe and account for local migration patterns outlined in this Local Migration Profile. Of particular help will be sub-district data and local (especially qualitative) research. Further information Contact Nicola Rea if you have any questions relating to this document on Nicola.rea@manchester.gov.uk or call Thanks to Edge Analytics Ltd and Leeds University for the development of the Migrant Databank. Page 13 of 13