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1 Beyond 2011: S5 Administrative Data Sources Report: Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) and Her Majesty s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Benefit and Revenue Information (CIS) and Lifetime Labour Market Database (L2) July 2013 Background The Office for National Statistics is currently taking a fresh look at options for the production of population and small area socio-demographic statistics for England and Wales. The Beyond 2011 Programme has been established to carry out research on the options and to recommend the best way forward to meet future user needs. Beyond 2011 is considering a range of options including census, survey and administrative data solutions. Since census-type solutions are already relatively well understood most of the research is focussing on how surveys can be supplemented by better re-use of administrative data already collected from the public. The final recommendation, which will be made in 2014, will balance user needs, cost, benefit, statistical quality, and the public acceptability of all of the options. The results will have implications for all population-based statistics in England and Wales and, potentially, for the statistical system as a whole. About this paper This report presents research reviewing the scope and quality of benefit and revenue information held by the Department for Work (DWP) and Pensions and Her Majesty s Revenue and Customs. (HMRC); the Customer Information System (CIS) and the Lifetime Labour Market Database (L2). This report brings together conceptual and analytical information about specific DWP/HMRC social security and revenue information and the L2, to inform the potential use of these data sources within the Beyond 2011 Programme. This document is one of a series of papers to be published over coming months. These will report our progress on researching and assessing the options, discuss our policies and methods and summarise what we find out about individual data sources. For more information Paper references (Paper M1, O1, R2 etc) used throughout refer to other papers published by Beyond 2011 all of which are available on the Beyond 2011 pages of the ONS website. Search Beyond or contact : Crown Copyright 2013 Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database

2 Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary Introduction Background Potential data source an overview Selection of data source The CIS The L Data collection The CIS The L Quality procedures The CIS The L Overview of the data ONS receives Data coverage and definitions Data quality Cleaning the extract for Beyond 2011 purposes Missing data Geographical variation Linkability Comparable extracts Creating a comparable extract The CIS comparable extract The L2 comparable extract National level comparison Total population The CIS The L Sex ratio comparisons The CIS The L LA comparisons The CIS The L LAs where the DWP sources are lower than the 2011 Census estimates Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 1

3 6.4.1 The CIS The L LAs where the DWP/HMRC comparable extracts are higher than the 2011 Census estimates The CIS The L LA Examples Total persons aged 20 to 24 comparisons Total persons aged 16 to 64 comparisons Discussion The CIS The L Beyond 2011 s use of the CIS and the L Future changes to DWP and HMRC sources Conclusions References Appendix A CIS variables as supplied to ONS Appendix B L2 variables as supplied to ONS Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 2

4 1 Executive Summary This report presents research reviewing the scope and quality of benefit and revenue information held by the Department for Work (DWP) and Pensions and Her Majesty s Revenue and Customs. (HMRC); the Customer Information System (CIS) and the Lifetime Labour Market Database (L2). The CIS held within DWP, provides information on all individuals who have ever had a national insurance number (NINo), including children whose parents have made a child benefit claim relating to them, but are yet to be issued with their NINo. The L2 is a 1 % sample of all records on the National Insurance and Pay As You Earn System (NPS), which holds a record for all individuals aged 16 and over with a NINo. The main findings of this report are that: CIS L2 after adjustment 1 the CIS is 9.5 % higher than the 2011 Census estimates for all persons the CIS shows 27.9 % of local authorities (LAs) to be within 3.8 % of the 2011 Census estimates after adjustment using rules based on activity information derived from DWP and HMRC systems, the L2 is 0.6 % lower than the 2011 Census estimates for people aged 16 to 79 the L2 shows 61.5 % of LAs to be within 3.8 % of the 2011 Census estimates for people aged 16 to 79 Although both sources by definition only include individuals with a NINo (and only individuals 16 and over for the L2), there are further definitional differences between these sources and the usually resident population. However both are likely to play an important role within Beyond 2011 because the CIS has broad population coverage providing detailed information for all ages, however, it includes people who are registered for a NINo but who no longer live in England and Wales. Not all of these can be easily removed. The L2 has an indicator which allows identification of individuals who are, or are likely to be, long term residents based on activity data. This provides L2 estimates much closer to the Census estimates so when used together the two sources have the potential to play an important role in an administrative data based approach to producing population estimates. In summary, both the CIS and the L2 are likely to be useful sources of data for the Beyond 2011 Programme. The bespoke identifiers provided by DWP for both the CIS and the L2 allow linkage between these two sources, whilst the data on the CIS will allow anonymised linkage to other sources. This combination of sources will be of importance to Beyond Introduction The principle of Beyond 2011 is relatively simple the Programme is investigating the best way of producing the population and small area socio-demographic statistics needed to support the effective administration of the country. We are carrying out a programme of research looking at all 1 Adjustments include removing people deceased before 2011 Census day, removing people who were recorded as outside of the UK on the CIS and for people for whom no geographical information was available on the CIS. See section for further explanation. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 3

5 of the possible approaches to producing this data, then assessing each of these against a clear and agreed set of criteria in order to help us decide on the best way forward. This document, S5: Administrative Data Sources Report DWP/HMRC Benefit and Revenue Information (CIS) and Lifetime Labour Market Database (L2) is one in a series of detailed assessments setting out the results of reviews of individual sources. The following Administrative Data Sources Reports have already been published; S1: Administrative Data Sources Report (NHS Patient Register); S2: Administrative Data Sources Report (Household Electoral Register). S3: Administrative Data Source Report (English and Welsh School Censuses) S4: Administrative Data Sources Report (Higher Education Student Data). In making use of data from administrative sources attention must be given to understanding the processes and procedures associated with the collection, collation, processing and validation of the information and the implications these processes may have for the underlying quality of the data. In particular, it is important to take account of the differences between data collected for administrative and statistical purposes and, where necessary, to make allowances for differences in data definitions and classifications as well as variations in timeliness and reference points. This report brings together conceptual and analytical information about specific DWP/HMRC social security and revenue information and the L2, to inform the potential use of these data sources within the Beyond 2011 Programme. 3 Background Population and socio-demographic statistics are currently based on a 10-yearly census of the population. There is a clear, ongoing need for high quality statistics and, whilst the 2011 Census was successful, the traditional census is becoming increasingly costly and difficult to conduct. There is also a demand for more frequent statistics from some users. Improvements in technology and administrative data sources offer opportunities either to modernise the census process, or to develop an alternative by re-using existing data already held within government. Whilst this would require investment in the short term, it should deliver realterm savings in the longer term compared to the 2011 Census, which cost 480m over 10 years. In May 2010 the UK Statistics Authority asked the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to investigate the possible alternatives for England and Wales. Whilst the UK Statistics Authority is an independent, non-ministerial department, the final decision will be taken by Parliament because of funding and legislative requirements. A recommendation will be made in During the first phase of the programme, running from 2011/12 to 2014/15 the programme will assess user requirements for small area population and socio-demographic statistics and the best way to meet these needs. The outcome of the first phase will be a full business case underpinning the recommendation, setting out the costs and benefits of the options considered. A full public consultation allowing stakeholders to contribute views on the key issues and options is planned for September to November this year. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 4

6 4 Potential data source an overview 4.1 Selection of data source The Beyond 2011 Programme is considering options for producing population and small area socio-demographic statistics for England and Wales. To support this work DWP have provided a bespoke extract of specific social security and revenue information that is held within DWP 2. This data is referred to as the CIS from this point on. In addition DWP have provided an extract of the L2. Both sources will be fully described and assessed in this report. DWP is a non-devolved office of government which provides work and pensions policy across the United Kingdom, whilst HMRC is a non ministerial department responsible for taxation and some tax related benefits in the United Kingdom; both therefore require records for individuals in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Other operational requirements include the need to retain records for deceased individuals so that widow(er)s pension can be paid; both the CIS and the L2 also have records for people who are no longer resident in the UK, some of whom may still be interacting with DWP or HMRC systems through payment of national insurance or through claiming a state pension. Whilst other non-resident records may not have interacted with either DWP or HMRC for many years, these records are retained as the person has a NINo and may have accrued pension benefits whilst resident The CIS The CIS contains a record for all individuals that have been issued with a NINo. Under the Social Security Act 1948, all individuals that work in the UK or access welfare services must have a valid NINo. There are numerous DWP and HMRC systems which interact with the CIS to provide up to date information (see section 4.5). For DWP, the primary purpose of the CIS is to store basic identifying information about customers of DWP, such as name, address and date of birth. Alongside this, the CIS has a limited record of the benefits that an individual has claimed over the past two to three years. The CIS helps DWP staff readily access customer information when they are contacted by an individual, meaning quick and accurate decisions can be made (DWP, 2008). The extract of the CIS provided to ONS contains approximately 96 million records as at 2011 Census day. The extract is 72 % higher than the 2011 Census estimates for England and Wales. This is, in part, because the extract includes records for all individuals that have ever held a NINo (see sections 4.1 and section 4.5). The extract provides information on forename, surname, date of birth, date of death, address, postcode and bespoke identifier (created by DWP). As part of ONS s agreement to protect the data, forename, surname, date of birth, address and postcode have been anonymised. ONS does not receive information on benefits claimed. A full list of the variables supplied to ONS can be found in Appendix A The L2 The L2 is a 1 % sample of all records on the National Insurance and Pay As You Earn System (NPS). The NPS contains a record for all individuals with a NINo who have reached the age where they become liable for National Insurance purposes (age 16) and/or access welfare in the UK 3. The L2 sample is nationally representative and drawn systematically from the NPS system, based on the last two digits of an individual s NINo; having been drawn the sample is then supplemented with benefit data. The L2 provides information for individuals either alive at, or born or arrived since, 5 April The data is owned by DWP, HMRC and Department for Social Development in Northern Ireland (DSDNI) 3 An individual receives their national insurance number at 15 and three quarters and are added to the NPS Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 5

7 The L2 database is used by DWP and HMRC in policy monitoring. The full L2 data set consists of approximately 840,000 records. As this is a 1 % sample this would reflect a population aged 16 and over of approximately 84 million; whilst this is 84.6 % higher than the 2011 Census estimate for England and Wales for persons aged 16 and over, the full L2 includes records for individuals who are no longer resident or are deceased (see section 4.1 and 4.5). ONS have been provided with an L2 data extract relating to tax year s 2000/2001 to 2010/2011. This extract only includes records for individuals alive between 2000/2001 and 2010/2011, and contains approximately 680,000 records. As this is a 1 % sample, this would reflect a population aged 16 and over of approximately 68 million; whilst this is 49.5 % higher than the 2011 Census estimate for England and Wales for persons aged 16 and over, this extract includes records for individuals who are no longer resident or are deceased in 2011 (see section 4.5 and section 5.1.2). The data provides information relating to postcode, age, derived residency indicators and a bespoke identifier which corresponds to the bespoke identifier created on the CIS extract. ONS does not receive information on benefits or employment. A full list of the variables supplied to ONS can be found in Appendix B. To support Beyond 2011 research, DWP have developed and applied a set of rules which allow an indicator of whether someone is resident in the UK to be added to the dataset. The rules are based upon an individual s observed activity on DWP or HMRC systems. These indicators enable Beyond 2011 to create an extract of the L2 which is more comparable to the usually resident population (see section 5.1.2). 4.2 Data collection The CIS The CIS holds a record for all individuals issued with a NINo. The majority of new CIS records are created when a child is born and their parents/guardians subsequently make a claim for child benefit. On making a claim, a NINo is allocated by HMRC for the child (at this stage the number is referred to as a Child Reference Number within the Child Benefit system). The record is then created on the CIS, with key attribute information provided through the child benefit claim. The NINo is not notified to the individual until age 15 and three quarters, for use when they become eligible to work or access welfare at age 16. Where parents do not make a claim for child benefit, their child will only have a record created for them on the CIS once they have applied for, and been issued with, a NINo at age 16 or older. Similarly, migrants will only have a record created on the CIS once their application has been approved and their NINo issued. In both these cases personal information is provided through the application for a NINo. The CIS is updated primarily via a range of DWP and HMRC systems. These systems interact with CIS and provide updates such as changes of address, name or gender. For example, an individual claiming Job Seekers Allowance will be required to interact with Job Centre Plus on a fortnightly basis; if the individual changes their address, and notifies the Job Centre of the change, then this will be updated on the Job Seekers Allowance system and will feed through to the CIS and update the address held within the system. Any change of address is broadcast to all the other systems within DWP and HMRC that interact with CIS and have an interest recorded on the CIS for that customer The L2 The L2 is a 1 % systematic sample of all NINos on the NPS supplemented with benefit data. The process of data collection originates from the NPS and DWP systems. The NPS only contains records for individuals with a NINo who have reached eligible working age (age 16); consequently it does not contain any records for children under age 15 and three quarters (the age at which individuals are sent a NINo). Children who were part of a child benefit Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 6

8 claim have their information migrated from the CIS to the NPS at age 15 and three quarters, where they then become part of the sampling frame for the L2. As with the CIS, working age migrants and children over 15 and three quarters whose parents have not made a claim for child benefit, will not be present on the NPS until they have applied for and been issued with a NINo. Once on the NPS, these cases then form part of the L2 sampling frame. Each year the L2 sample is re drawn using the same last two digits of a NINo, including individuals contained in previous extracts and individuals who have just entered on to NPS (for example child records from CIS at age 15 and three quarters whose NINo has these last two digits). Each sample includes all previous information relating to an individual, in addition to any changes that have occurred since the last sample was drawn. For instance, if an individual sampled in to the L2 was at address A for the first ten months of the financial year and then moved to address B, then all this information would be available from the L2. In the extract provided to ONS, the individual will be allocated to address A as this is the address they have been recorded at for the longest period for that financial year. 4.3 Quality procedures The CIS The CIS receives information from DWP and HMRC systems to provide updates as necessary to an individual s information. Mandatory information such as name and date of birth are validated against either a birth certificate or a passport on creation of an individual s record. As described in section 4.2.1, changes to an individual s circumstances are updated on the CIS through the individual notifying DWP or HMRC of a change or through the individual interacting with a tax or benefit system. Any change of circumstances notified to CIS is broadcast to all other DWP and HMRC systems where an interest is recorded for a customer. Updates can take up to 24 hours before they are reflected on the CIS, and an additional 24 hours before they are broadcast to other legacy systems. The quality of information held for individuals may vary according to the frequency with which they interact with DWP or HMRC. The CIS is only updated when individuals notify DWP or HMRC of a change in circumstances or through interaction with a benefit system. For example, an individual who is receiving Job Seekers Allowance is likely to have up to date information as they are required to attend a job centre on a fortnightly basis and therefore interact with the CIS regularly. Conversely, individuals who do not regularly interact with benefit systems, for example those in employment, must notify DWP or HMRC directly of a change of circumstances if this is to be reflected on the system. Where employers notify HMRC of a change in an employee s information, this is not updated on CIS The L2 The quality of data on the L2 will be similar to that on the CIS. For new cases coming on to the NPS (children reaching 15 and three quarters sourced from Child Benefit and CIS) date of birth information should be of a high quality as this information is validated by a birth certificate before entry on to the CIS. Other NINo applicants, such as migrants and children of parents who did not make a claim for child benefit, are required to validate their information by passport or birth certificate as part of the application process. Data should retain a high level of quality given that this information is validated and updated continuously with various life events; for example, marriage, change of name and claims to benefits and social security provisions. A number of these life events require birth certificate or passport verification. However, as described for the CIS in section 4.3.1, the quality of information held for individuals, such as name or address, may vary according to the frequency with which they interact with DWP or HMRC. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 7

9 4.4 Overview of the data ONS receives ONS receives a subset of the data held on the CIS and the L2. For both sources this information is broadly limited to basic person information such as age and postcode. ONS does not receive information on benefits claimed. A full list of the variables supplied to ONS can be found in Appendix A. ONS received an extract from DWP of the CIS in 2012 relating to 2011 Census day 27 March The total number of records received was approximately 96,455,000. ONS also received an extract from DWP of the L2 in 2013 relating to the tax years 2000/01 to 2010/2011. The total number of records in the 1 % sample was 680, Data coverage and definitions This section explores how the coverage of the CIS and the L2 relates to the Beyond 2011 target of measuring the usually resident population. The CIS reflects the total population of persons with a NINo at all ages, whilst the L2 reflects a 1 % sample of the population with a NINo of eligible working age. Definition of usually resident: A person is deemed to be usually resident in the UK if they stay, or intend to stay in the UK for a period of 12 months or more. For the CIS, individuals are treated as resident at their correspondence address. For the L2, individuals will be considered resident at the address recorded for the longest period in the financial year 2010 to In this report comparisons of the CIS and L2 are made with the 2011 Census estimates (section 6). According to ONS (2009) a usual resident of the UK (for census output purposes only) is anyone who, on 27 March 2011 was (i) in the UK and has stayed or intended to stay in the UK for a period of 12 months or more or; (ii) had a permanent UK address and was outside the UK and intended to be outside the UK for less than 12 months. The relationship between the population covered by both sources and the usually resident population is illustrated in figure 1. Here we see that for a specific area, at a specific time, the population covered in the DWP/HMRC sources may, for example, differ from the usually resident population as a result of: the inclusion of persons staying in England and Wales for less than 12 months; people remaining on the system after they have emigrated; people who have died abroad but the system has not been notified of their death; and, for example, the omission of; people not registered for a NINo; children for whom a no child benefit claim has been made. Where a date of death is present, these cases can be identified in the data. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 8

10 Figure 1: Relating DWP/HMRC sources to the usual resident population in area j at time t Change of details lag for inmigrants to area j Usually resident Population DWP/HMRC Sources Short term immigrants who have registered for a NINo and are in the UK Change of details lag for outmigrants from area j Migrants who do not have a NINo Duplicate record or NINo Children for whom child benefit has not been claimed Usual residents with a NINo Records for migrants who have applied and been issued with a NINo but have yet to enter the country Those who have moved abroad and not notified DWP/Died abroad Duplication: There are some instances on DWP and HMRC systems where an individual may inadvertently be issued with 2 NINos. When such cases are identified by HMRC or DWP the NINo accounts are corrected and/or amalgamated; the incorrect NINo is marked as having been amalgamated with another NINO account. Prior to ONS receiving the record level extract of the CIS and the L2, DWP removed duplicates and created a single record for those with more than one NINo. Due to the way the CIS data tables have been created and provided to ONS, two rows are created for any individual with two name entries; the only difference between the two rows being the name. For example, a married woman may wish to be known by her maiden name in a working capacity and her married name in order to claim child benefit. After anonymisation this information is used by Beyond 2011 to improve the matching possible with other sources. Omissions: There are some instances where individuals may be resident in the population, but are not covered by DWP and HMRC sources as they do not have a NINo; for example, a working migrant who has a NINo may have dependents residing in the United Kingdom who do not work or claim benefits and who therefore have not registered for a NINo themselves. Additionally migrant students who do not work may not have registered for a NINo. Children whose parents do not make a child benefit claim relating to them will not be issued with a NINo and will only be added to the system if they apply for a NINo when they reach working age. For the 2011 CIS extract the number of children whose parents or guardians have never made a claim for child benefit is likely to be minimal (as child benefit at this point in time was universal). However, the proposed changes to child benefit outlined in the Welfare Reform Act 2012, which saw the benefit change from universal to income assessed, may result in fewer applications for child benefit (as some families will be no longer eligible). Children of families who are not currently eligible are unlikely to appear on the CIS shortly after birth, but will appear at a later date if they apply for a NINo (when eligible to work), or if their parents become eligible and apply for child benefit during their remaining years of childhood. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 9

11 ONS is aware of these changes and will monitor any further changes that could impact the coverage of the source in relation to the usually resident population. Lags in recording of births and deaths: Potential time delays in the notification or nonnotification of births and deaths can lead to individuals not appearing on the CIS immediately or remaining on the CIS without date of death. Births: Currently DWP/HMRC are notified of a birth when a claim for child benefit is made relating to that child. There will be a lag between the birth of the child and application (if any), receipt and processing of a child benefit claim. Deaths: After any death has been notified and recorded, the record will remain on both data sources, but it is possible for ONS to limit the extract to use only those records without a date of death. Deaths are notified to DWP via the General Register Office, which is linked with the CIS, providing information relating to the individual and the date that they died. Notifications can also come from families of deceased individuals to stop the payment of benefits. Certificates of death are required to verify the death and to stop any payment. Details submitted in this way are also input to CIS. There may be lags in the notification of deaths to the General Register Office; this may not impact operational use of the source, but could have a small impact on extracts of the sources provided to ONS. In addition, notifications of death through the General Register Office are restricted to deaths that occur within the United Kingdom. Where an individual with a NINo dies abroad, they may remain on the DWP or HMRC sources without a date of death until notification or evidence of their death has been reported to DWP/HMRC. Embarkations: Where individuals move abroad and notify DWP or HMRC they remain on the system and their address data is updated to reflect their overseas address. Such individuals are retained on the system as, whilst they may not be currently residing in the UK, they may still be making national insurance contributions or interacting with DWP systems. For example, nonresident people remain on the system as they may have accrued entitlement to state pension or benefits. Where an individual has not notified DWP or HMRC of their departure they will remain on the system at their last known address which may be in the UK. DWP/HMRC system variation: There are numerous DWP and HMRC systems which interact with the CIS. These systems are administered independently from one another (for example Job Centre Plus, Income Support Computer System, Disability Living Allowance System etc), but all have a central connection with the CIS data for administration of address and personal details. The frequency with which an individual must interact with these systems in order to keep receiving a particular benefit varies depending on the type of benefit being claimed. Where an individual is receiving multiple benefits it may increase the frequency of interaction with DWP systems compared with the frequency of someone receiving a single benefit. Once an update is made on one system the updated information is broadcast to all other DWP/HMRC systems via CIS. However, depending on how each system updates CIS, there could be a delay of up to 24 hours between the information being notified to the system and being recorded via CIS. A further 24 hours is required for CIS to update all other systems. 4.6 Data quality Once ONS receive the data a number of checks are carried out on the data in respect of the way ONS use the data. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 10

12 4.6.1 Cleaning the extract for Beyond 2011 purposes Beyond 2011 s interest in the CIS and the L2 relates to whether an individual is a usual resident in England and Wales, and if so, where they usually reside. As stated in section 4.5 there are some instances on DWP and HMRC systems where an individual may inadvertently be issued with two NINos. In deriving the bespoke identifier, DWP amalgamated records for individuals with more than one NINo, creating a single bespoke identifier for both the CIS and the L2. In addition for the L2 extract supplied by DWP, records with a missing date of birth were removed; this is because age cannot be accurately assigned Missing data Table 1 shows the percentages of missing/ non missing data on the CIS, as at 2011 Census day, for each of the demographic variables considered key for Beyond 2011 purposes. The data are taken from a version of the CIS after records have been removed where they relate to the same person using an alternative name (see section 4.5). Table Census Day extract of the CIS variable completeness Variable name Variable type Non missing Missing Surname Character 100% 0.00% Date of birth Numeric 99.61% 0.39% Address line 1 Character >99.99% <0.01% Address line 2 Character 99.99% 0.01% Postcode Character 99.56% 0.44% Local Authority Character 88.13% 11.87% (LA) 4 Source: Customer Information System 2011 Table 2 shows the percentages of missing/non missing data on the L2 for the extract 2000/2001 to 2010/2011for postcode and LA. Table /2001 to 2010/2011 extract of the L2 variable completeness Variable name Variable type Non missing Missing Postcode Character 93.32% 6.68% LA Character 98.33% 1.67% Source: Lifetime Labour Market Database, 2000/2001 to 2010/ Local authority (LA) was derived from postcode using match code Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 11

13 4.6.3 Geographical variation The different DWP and HMRC legacy systems have many different points of contact. For example, most LA areas will have a Job Centre plus office, and each office will have its own local pressures depending on the profile of the local population. Local pressures may impact the speed with which information is received by the CIS, particularly if they result in processing delays or an increased number of claims Linkability DWP create a unique identifier specifically for ONS purposes. This is derived from the NINo and helps ensure privacy is maintained when the data is passed to ONS for initial processing during which the data are de-identified. This unique identifier would allow longitudinal linkage of the CIS to itself over time if further extracts are produced. It also allows linkage to the L2. However, given that the unique identifier is not included on any other source outside of DWP/ HMRC, linkage to other data sources using this identifier is not possible. Linkage with other sources may be possible using a combination of variables, such as name, date of birth and address. It is recognised that this raises concerns relating to the privacy of data about individuals and households, and that steps need to be taken to ensure the confidentiality of any data used. For this reason, Beyond 2011 has developed methods to enable linkage with completely anonymised data using a number of pre-processing steps. This has been outlined in Beyond 2011:Safeguarding data for research: our policy (paper M10, published simultaneously with this report). The results of research to date are very promising and have been applied to current research. Further details are available in Beyond 2011: Matching Anonymous Data (paper M9, published simultaneously with this report). We have now published more details of the methods used and will continue to discuss our approach with experts. 5 Comparable extracts 5.1 Creating a comparable extract Given the population coverage of the DWP and HMRC sources, as described above, adjustment of these data sets can help to provide an extract more comparable to the usually resident population. In this section the methods used to produce a comparable extract of the CIS and the L2 are outlined, demonstrating how some of the coverage differences identified in section 4.5 may be resolved The CIS comparable extract The CIS extract provided to ONS by DWP is a record of every individual on the CIS as at 2011 Census day. The data set has been adjusted by ONS in order to create an extract that is more comparable to the usually resident population. The data used in section 6 is created in two stages, firstly at national level, then at LA level. Stage 1 is at national level where the following records were removed: 1. Those records holding alternative name information for an individual ( name type 2 ) 2. Records with a date of death before 2011 Census day 3. Records with an address with a country code of Scotland or Northern Ireland or records with an address outside of the UK 4. Records where all levels of geography are missing (postcode (sector), LA code, country code) Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 12

14 Stage 2 was for the LA level analysis. There are a number of records on the CIS where an individual s country code is recorded, but no other geographical information (postcode or LA code) is available. Where this is the case, and the country code is shown as England or Wales, these individuals will be included in the national comparative extract but not in the LA comparative extract. This is because these individuals cannot be allocated to a LA. Table 3 sets out the number of records in the CIS extract provided to ONS and shows how this relates to the numbers remaining on the extracts used for national and LA comparisons in Section 6. Table 3 Creating an extract of the CIS for comparison with 2011 Census estimates 5 Total number of records in initial extract 96,450,000 Number of name type 2 records 863,000 Number of records recorded as deceased before 2011 Census day 19,758,000 Number of records outside of England and Wales 12,772,000 Number of records with no country code and no other geography 1,681,000 Total number of records in comparable extract at national level 61,381,000 Number of records in England and Wales but with no LA code 281,000 Total number of records in comparable extract at LA level 61,101,000 Source: Customer Information System 2011 Whilst these records need to be removed in order to try to meet the usual resident definition of England and Wales only (for Beyond 2011 purposes), there are important reasons for their inclusion on the CIS for DWP and HMRC for operational purposes (see section 4.1). After ONS has adjusted the CIS to create a comparable extract which better reflects the usually resident population, some coverage differences between the CIS and the usually resident population still remain. The relationship between the adjusted CIS and the usually resident population is illustrated by figure 2. 5 Figures in this table may not add exactly because they have been rounded to the nearest thousand Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 13

15 Figure 2: Relating the comparable CIS extract to the usual resident population in area j at time t Change of details lag for inmigrants to area j Usually resident Population CIS Short term immigrants Change of details lag for outmigrants from area j Migrants who do not have a NINo Children of parents who have not made a claim for child benefit Usual residents with a NINo Those who have moved abroad and not notified DWP/Died abroad Omissions: The comparable extract still excludes migrants with who do not have a NINo and children of parents/guardians who did not make a child benefit claim relating to them. As outlined in section 4.6 the coverage of children on the CIS, relative to the usually resident population, may in the future be affected by changes in child benefit as outlined in the Welfare Reform Act Migrants: Emigrants who fail to notify DWP or HMRC that they are leaving the country will remain on the CIS comparable extract if the address held is in England or Wales. In addition the CIS will include any short-term immigrants who have a NINo. Lags in recording of births and deaths: Time delays in the notification of births and deaths remain for the comparable extract. Missing data: Section outlined the extent to which variables were missing in the raw CIS extract. After creation of the comparable extract the same variables were assessed for their levels of missingness. All variables see a reduction in their levels of missing when compared to the initial extract. The largest change in missing variable information was seen for LA, where levels of missing fell from % of all records on the initial extract to 0.46 % of all records on the CIS comparable extract. Table 4 shows the percentages of missing and non missing variables as a proportion of all records on the CIS comparable extract. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 14

16 Table Census Day CIS comparable extract variable completeness Variable name Variable type Non missing Missing Surname Character 100% 0.00% Date of birth Numeric >99.99% <0.01% Address line 1 Character >99.99% <0.01% Address line 2 Character >99.99% <0.01% Postcode Character 99.62% 0.38% LA 6 Character 99.64% 0.46% Source: Customer Information System The L2 comparable extract To support Beyond 2011research, DWP assigned a residency indicator to the L2 extract provided. The residency indicator is derived from an individual s observed activity on DWP/HMRC systems within the year or a set of residency rules that are based on the individual s previous activity. Activity is defined as an individual interacting with the national insurance, tax or benefit systems within any given financial year. There are some instances where individuals may appear inactive but are actually still resident within the population. The longitudinal nature of the L2 allows an individual s previous interactions with national insurance, tax or benefit systems to be used in the formation of residency rules. Previous interactions may be used to derive residency for individuals with specific characteristics when there is no observable activity or when no activity is expected. The derived residency rules are summarised as follows: 1. School age rule: year olds are assumed to be resident if there was child benefit in payment for them at age 15. This is, in part, because many year olds are in full time education and would not necessarily interact with national insurance, tax or benefit systems. 2. Child benefit rule: Women over 40 years old, who have been in receipt of child benefit for 15 years or more, are considered to be resident even if no current activity is shown. This is because longitudinal L2 data has shown that substantial numbers of women who have been in receipt of child benefit have remained inactive from date of benefit ceasing to the date where they begin claiming a state pension. A similar assumption is made for men above the age of 50, however very few men are included under this assumption. 3. State pension rule: Those receiving a state pension paid in the UK are assumed to be resident from the year of the last activity to the year in which the state pension appears. 4. Gap year rule: This rule is only applied to UK Nationals. It identifies years where there is no activity, but there was 10 weeks or more activity in the previous year and 10 weeks activity or more in the following year. These people are believed to still be resident, but have not interacted consistently over the three year period. Such individuals include: 6 This relates to the percentage of missing LAs relative to the total number of records in the national comparable extract. On removing records with no LA this falls to 0% missing Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 15

17 a. Students who leave education, fail to secure work and who do not claim JSA b. Students who only work part-year (holiday periods) or do no work at all in a particular year c. People who are unemployed but who do not claim JSA 5. Arrival-registration gap rule: This rule is only applied to migrants. This rule keeps the period between first arrival date in the UK, as recorded on the NINo application, and the registration date for National Insurance purposes as resident, even when there is no supporting activity. 6. Penultimate year rule: Some of the rules that are applied throughout the time series cannot be applied in the latest year, for example the 'gap' year rule. As a consequence some people are incorrectly excluded from the L2 comparable extract in the penultimate year because there is no data in the latest year, or because the 'gap' year rule cannot be applied. In order to mitigate this, the penultimate year rule is applied (to UK nationals only) to adjust the resident population in the latest year of the data. The rule works for the following people. UK Nationals with: a. 52 weeks activity in the penultimate year; and, b. classed as Long Term resident in the penultimate year and, c. of working age. If these criteria are met the following is done: d. Individuals with no activity in the final year are classed as resident and included in L2 comparable extract. Where an individual in the L2 comparable extract has more than one address in a financial year, the address recorded for the longest duration within that year is selected. Following the activity and rules based adjustment of the L2, some of the coverage differences between the L2 and the usually resident population remain. The relationship between the comparable L2 extract and the usually resident population is illustrated in figure 3. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 16

18 Figure 3: Relating the comparable L2 Extract to the usual resident population in area j at time t Individuals removed, but who should have been kept resident Usually resident Population L2 Change of details lag for inmigrants to area j Change of details for out-migrants from area j Children under fifteen and three quarters Individuals kept resident by rules who are actually no longer resident - Migrants who do not have a NINo Usual residents with a NINo sampled in to the L2 Omission: Following the creation of a comparable L2 extract, migrants without a NINo and children under the age of 15 and three quarters will still be missing from the L2. Sampling Error: As the L2 is a 1 % sample of the NPS, an element of statistical error may arise as a result of sampling. The extent of any sampling error would be reduced if a larger sample were obtained. Non Sampling Error: The comparable extract of the L2 is, in part, created by rules. If the assumptions made relating to these rules are incorrect, an element of non sampling error may be introduced. This could result in individuals being included as resident in the comparable extract when they are actually non-resident or vice versa. Geographic location: The creation of the L2 comparable extract assigns individuals with more than one address within the financial year to the address at which they are recorded at for the longest period in that financial year, even if the address is not the most recent. Other address allocation methods are available from the L2 extract, but these are not currently provided to ONS. Where an individual has no address information in a given year, their address is imputed from the address they were last active at. The address assumptions applied to the comparable extract of the L2 may result in individuals being allocated to an area where they are no longer resident. Missing Data: Section outlined the extent to which variables were missing in the raw L2 extract. After creation of the comparable extract the same variables were assessed for their levels of missingness. Both postcode and LA variables see a reduction in their levels of missing when compared to the initial extract. The largest change in missing variable information was seen for postcode, where levels of missing fell from 6.68 % of all records on the initial extract to 0.42% of all records on the L2 comparable extract. Table 5 shows the percentages of missing and non missing variables as a proportion of all records on the L2 comparable extract. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 17

19 Table /2011 L2 comparable extract variable completeness Variable name Variable type Non missing Missing Postcode Character 99.58% 0.42% LA 7 Character >99.99% >0.01% Source: Lifetime Labour Market Database, 2010/ National level comparison 6.1 Total population Sections 4.5, and explain the underlying conceptual differences between the CIS, L2 and the usually resident population as defined by ONS. In order to understand how the CIS and the L2 may be useful in estimating the usually resident population it is important to compare both the CIS and the L2 to the 2011 Census estimates; this will help translate the conceptual differences into a numerical comparison. In this section both the CIS and L2 comparable extracts have been compared to the 2011 Census population estimates at the national and LA level. For the CIS, direct comparisons are made with the 2011 Census estimates. For comparison to the L2, the 2011 Census estimates are grouped in to age bands as the L2 is a 1 % sample which may impact on comparisons for individual years of age. Given that the L2 is a sample from NPS, the data has been scaled up to represent the full number of records on NPS. For both the CIS and L2, for England and Wales combined, national comparisons for each of the sources against the 2011 Census estimates include observations for individuals with unknown LA. The England only and Wales only analyses exclude observations where the LA is unknown as these individuals cannot be assigned to either of the two countries. For LA analyses, all persons of all ages in the CIS comparable extract are compared to LA person totals from the 2011 Census estimates. LA analysis on the L2 compares those aged 16 to 79 with equivalent ages on the 2011 Census estimates. The LA findings presented in this report provide information relating to the percentage of LAs that fall within specified percentage differences of the 2011 Census estimates. Beyond 2011 quality standards are outlined in Beyond 2011: Options Report 2 (ONS 2013c). The following national analysis compares the 2011 Census estimates (reference date of 27 March 2011) and the 2011 Customer Information System for persons aged 0 to 99 (reference date of 31 March 2011) and the 2010/2011 L2 for persons aged 16 to 79 on the 30 June For the L2, 79 was selected as the upper age due to an archiving process carried out by HMRC The CIS For England and Wales combined the CIS comparable extract for all persons is larger than the 2011 Census estimates by 9.5 %. Figure 4 shows the comparison between the CIS and the 2011 Census estimates by single year of age. The sources differ from one another at age zero, with 2011 Census estimates exceeding the CIS comparable extract by 15 %. This is likely to be due to the lag in registration for child benefit. 7 This relates to the percentage of missing LAs relative to the total number of records in the national comparable extract. On removing records with no LA this falls to 0% missing 8 In the L2 data for 2010/11 the cohort aged 80 and over is deficient due to the archiving of some contribution records. As part of the transition between the HMRC s National Insurance Recording System (NIRS) and NIRS2 some contribution records were archived. Whilst these people still appear in the L2 data there is no activity or contribution data available. Administrative Data Sources Report: The Customer Information System and Lifetime Labour Market Database 18

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