KIEN GIANG, VIETNAM PRIORITY PROVINCE PROFILE

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1 KIEN GIANG, VIETNAM PRIORITY PROVINCE PROFILE Overview: Sea level rise (SLR) and flooding may cause drastic changes in the depth and duration of flooding in Kien Giang, Vietnam. Under climate change conditions during an average flood year over 400,000 ha that was previously rarely or never flooded to a depth of 1.0 m is projected to experience flooding of this depth for up to four months per year. Similarly an area of over 100,000 ha that was previously rarely or never flooded to a depth of 0.5 m will experience flooding of this depth. The maximum flood depths during an average year may also increase due to climate change. A total of 141,000 ha historically inundated up to depths of 1.0 m, by 2050 may be inundated by 1.0 to 3.0 m. Compared to the effects of SLR and flooding, Kien Giang Province will experience more moderate changes in precipitation and daily maximum temperature. Annual precipitation will increase by 5 8% and daily maximum temperature increases across the province between 5-10%. Note that Kien Giang was included in the priority provinces because of the impacts of sea level rise and flooding, not because of the projected increases in precipitation and temperature. Provincial Climate Change Impacts at 2050 Kien Giang, Vietnam Temperature Precipitation Storms Droughts Sea Level Rise Annual rainfall will increase from No large rainfall events of April-May, the historical transition 1,280 mm/yr to 1,370 mm/yr (+90 >100 mm/day occurred in from the dry to wet season, will be mm/yr); monthly rainfall during Sep- the 25 year baseline; such a drier and prolong water stress at the Oct will increase more than 10% storm will begin to occur end of the dry season. Drought will while Jan, Feb, and April will see a - once every 25 years under occur 80% of years during April 10% reduction in monthly rainfall climate change compared to 60% occurrence during the baseline period Projected 3 C increase in annual mean temperature; the peak maximum temperature for a typical year will rise from 38.5 C under baseline conditions to 41.8 C under climate change conditions Estimated SLR of 30 cm in the rainy season can exacerbate floods and crop damage; in the dry season SLR will increase intensity and duration of salinity of water & soil Sectoral Vulnerabilities Kien Giang, Vietnam Agriculture Livestock Fisheries Irrigated Rice Rainfed Rice Exposed Species Small Commercial Pig Field Running Layer Ducks Estuarine Fish (mollusks) Extensive Freshwater Prawn Ponds Coastal Semi-Intensive Shrimp Ponds Illustrative Climate Vulnerability* Temperatures exceeding 35 C will create heat stress; SLR will increase saline water intrusion with significant yield loss at >4% salinity concentration SLR will increase saline water intrusion with significant yield loss at >4% salinity concentration High temperature sensitivity as they are already outside of their ideal temperature range; likelihood of reduced growth rates, reproduction rates, and immunity Any decline in rice production will reduce running areas for scavenging and thus cause population loss Heat stress in areas that have lost mangrove shade will impact habitat for mollusks Heat stress will cause excessive algae growth and decrease oxygen levels, limiting reproduction Flash floods that cause sudden drop in salinity (shallower ponds) will invite disease and lower reproduction Non-Timber Forest Mangrove Apple Sea level rise and coastal erosion in current tidal zones will limit productivity and cause migration inland Products & Crop Wild Species Giant Honeybee Prolonged dry season in peat areas (e.g., U Minh Thuong) to impact flowering Melaleuca tree & honey production *Vulnerabilities listed are not comprehensive, but rather a snapshot of how each exposure unit could be impacted by a shifting climate. 1

2 Figure 1 Maximum temperature typical year time series in Kien Giang, Vietnam The daily values for a typical year (depicted by the solid lines in this figure) are calculated as an average of that day over the 25 years of modeled data for both baseline (blue) and climate change (red) conditions. 2

3 Figure 2 Minimum temperature typical year time series in Kien Giang, Vietnam The daily values for a typical year (depicted by the solid lines in this figure) are calculated as an average of that day over the 25 years of modeled data for both baseline (blue) and climate change (red) conditions. 3

4 Map 1 Wet season average precipitation in Kien Giang, Vietnam The green dot represents the location of the point time series data used to create Figures 1, 2, 3 and 4. 4

5 Figure 3 Monthly precipitation for a typical year in Kien Giang, Vietnam 5

6 Figure 4 Ranking of Annual Maximum Rainfall Events in Kien Giang, Vietnam 6

7 Figure 5 Sea Level Rise in Mekong Delta a) Maximum flood depth b) Duration of 0.5m flood depth 7