GLOBAL ASSET CLASSES We continue to overweight equities; they are cheap compared to bonds and corporate earnings continue to improve.

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1 GLOBAL ASSET CLASSES We continue to overweight equities; they are cheap compared to bonds and corporate earnings continue to improve. EQUITY REGIONS AND STYLES We are underweight emerging markets as corporate earnings are weak and a US rate hike looms; European and Japanese stocks exhibit the strongest momentum. EQUITY SECTORS We stick to our preference for cheap cyclical sectors such as technology, financials and industrials. FIXED INCOME We are scaling back European high-yield bonds but raise our exposure to European government bonds. UNDERWEIGHT Cash US Emerging NEUTRAL Bonds Oil USD Pacific Mid & Small Cap Value Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Disc Consumer Staples Healthcare Financials Telecoms Utilities Equities Gold Japan Europe EUR Government EUR Investment Grade EUR High Yield EMD Hard (USD) EMD Local EM Corporate OVERWEIGHT + IT MONTHLY CHANGE Maximum change Stocks set to weather Greek storms Pictet Asset Management Strategy Unit Monthly euro investor outlook on a 3 month view July 2015

2 Monthly outlook Pictet Asset Management Strategy Unit Issued 29 June 2015 Global market overview Greek drama enters final act As this month s Barometer went to print on June 29, the Greek debt crisis was entering a dangerous new phase with an exit from the euro currency looking increasingly plausible. Frustrated at the lack of progress in its debt negotiations, the Greek goverrnnent unexpectedly called a July 5 referendum on creditors proposals. Capital controls were duly imposed in a bid to limit withdrawals from banks and restrict transfers of money abroad. The country now looks almost certain to default on a EUR1.5 billion debt payment to the International Monetary Fund, which is due at the end of this month. Markets were initially left reeling in the wake of the news but losses were far short of those seen during the global financial crisis of In the first trading session after Greece announced its capital controls, European equities dropped around 4.5 per cent at the open leaving Germany s DAX at 11 per cent below its April peak. Nevertheless, the European market looked to be ending the month flat. In debt markets, meanwhile, 30-year Italian bonds were 9 per cent lower at one point a day after Greece imposed capital controls but later recovered their poise. GREEK YIELDS VS EUROPEAN STOCKS - EVOLUTION Greece 10y bond yield (rhs) Dax performance The 10-year yield spread between Italian and German government bonds went from 120 basis points to 199 bps before stabilising at 150 basis points, still the highest since November and about double the levels seen in March. Notwithstanding Greece, the euro was heading into month-end sporting modest gains against the US dollar. The muted market moves suggest investors believe all-out contagion across other peripheral European markets remains unlikely, particularly given the European Central Bank s determination to contain any fallout. More broadly, within global stock indices, utilities and mining were the worst-performing sectors, with weak economic prospects in China and other emerging markets depressing raw material prices. In emerging markets, meanwhile, the focus shifted squarely to China. An interest rate cut by the Peoples Bank of China failed to revive sentiment towards Chinese stocks which are now in a bear market. The Chinese stock market correction has weighed on Asian emerging markets; it is the worst regional performer over the month to date Source: Thomson Reutrers Datastream Asset allocation Equities remain best option Uncertainty stalks the markets as the first half of 2015 ends, with Greece s debt crisis coming to a head and questions remaining over the timing and pace of US interest rate hikes. But we are sticking to our overweight stance on equities, believing they still have further to run, buoyed by economic recovery in the developed world, central bank stimulus in Europe and Japan, strong M&A activity and an improving earnings outlook. We remain neutral on bonds: yields have already moved up a lot in recent weeks, with bonds issued by countries in Europe s periphery looking particularly attractive. We recognise, however, that the possibility of a stock market correction remains, not least because the outcome of Greece s crisis is unpredictable after Athens imposed capital controls on June 28. Nevertheless, fundamentals suggest the broader stock market rally should continue over the medium term and we have not changed our overall outlook or weightings on account of events in Greece. Business cycle readings indicate the global economy has staged a modest recovery following a setback earlier in the year though these indicators remain below long term averages. This pick-up in activity was largely fuelled by advanced economies, which posted their strongest monthly growth since November and one of the highest levels of activity in 18 months, according to our leading indicator that tracks 10 developed countries. The leading indicator for emerging economies continued to be a drag on the headline figure, however. The US economic rebound continues apace, with robust retail sales figures testifying to a rise in consumer confidence. Housing also saw a strong recovery with data on building permits and new home sales showing significant improvements. 2 BAROMETER JULY 2015

3 Source: Pictet Asset Management, Thomson Reuters Datastream / JPM and BoA Merrill Lynch MAJOR ASSET CLASSES PERFORMANCE: ASSET CLASSES BONDS: ASSET CLASS SPREADS MSCI Global equities JPM Global bonds GSCI Index USD In percentage points 5 EM Hard Currency vs US Treasuries Euro Investment Grade vs Bunds Euro High Yield vs Bunds EQUITY SECTOR ROTATION AND CURRENCY PERFORMANCE GLOBAL EQUITY SECTOR ROTATION: PERFORMANCE OF CYCLICAL VS DEFENSIVE STOCKS PERFORMANCE: CURRENCIES VS USD US EMU EM JP EUR GBP CHF JPY BAROMETER JULY

4 Source: Pictet Asset Management, Thomson Reuters Datastream RISK BIAS INDICATORS MONTHLY CHANGE Maximum change RISK-OFF NEUTRAL RISK-ON + Business cycle Liquidity Valuation Sentiment PAM strategy BUSINESS CYCLE: WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH REMAINS SUBDUED WORLD LEADING ACTIVITY INDEX & REAL GDP GROWTH % Leading index (Q/Q annualised) Leading index (Y/Y) World GDP growth (Y/Y) WORLD LEADING ACTIVITY SEQUENTIAL GROWTH (M/M) %m/m World leading indicator Average (since 99) ECONOMIC MOMENTUM PICKS ACROSS DEVELOPED WORLD G10 LEADING INDICATOR M/M GROWTH %m/m G10 leading indicator Average (since 99) EM LEADING INDICATOR M/M GROWTH %m/m EM leading indicator Average (since 99) BAROMETER JULY 2015

5 Source: Pictet Asset Management, Thomson Reuters Datastream VALUATION: EQUITY MARKETS AND SECTORS COUNTRIES AND SECTORS MSCI REGIONS EPS GROWTH SALES GROWTH PE PB P/SALES DY E 2015E 2015E US 1% 12% -2% 6% % Europe 2% 12% -1% 5% % EMU 23% 13% 4% 4% % Switzerland -3% 8% -1% 4% % UK -11% 12% -9% 6% % Japan 18% 9% 4% 3% % EM 5% 13% 0% 8% % NJA 9% 10% 0% 8% % Global 3% 12% 0% 6% % MSCI GLOBAL SECTORS EPS GROWTH SALES GROWTH PE PB P/SALES DY E 2015E 2015E Energy -45% 29% -23% 11% % Materials -6% 19% -3% 4% % Industrials 7% 11% 3% 4% % Consumer Discretionary 15% 15% 5% 6% % Consumer Staples 1% 9% 4% 5% % Health care 9% 12% 7% 7% % Financials 11% 9% 6% 5% % IT 8% 11% 6% 5% % Telecoms 7% 9% 3% 3% % Utilities 7% 0% 0% 2% % LIQUIDITY: FED ENDS QE BUT MONETARY STIMULUS CONTINUES ELSEWHERE SIZE OF CENTRAL BANKS BALANCE SHEETS SENTIMENT INDICATOR IN NEUTRAL GEAR PICTET SENTIMENT CYCLE INDEX Indexed Fed ECB BoE BoJ SNB Pictet Sentiment Index (LHS) S&P 500 COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX (RHS) +/- 1 STD BUY SIGNAL SELL SIGNAL BAROMETER JULY

6 On a less positive note, however, industrial activity was weaker, which can be attributed largely to the mining sector. In spite of these setbacks, we have not altered our expectation of an interest rate hike in October as labour market conditions are improving, with US employment growth at more than 2.2 per cent year-on-year during May and 3-month annualised core consumer prices rising above the 2 per cent Fed target. Indicators such as retail sales showed that the economic recovery of the euro zone is also on track with growth accelerating over the past few months. The headline data masks signs of divergence within the area. Our leading indicator for growth showed Italy expanding fastest at a rate of 1.6 per cent annualised in May, while Spain advanced 1.5 per cent, Ireland 1.4 per cent and Portugal 0.8 per cent. These rates were well ahead of Germany, where activity was more or less flat. Greece, unsurprisingly, continues to contract and is a major cause of uncertainty as Athens continues to grapple with its creditors, teetering on the brink of default and exiting the euro, which would have unpredictable consequences for other markets. US EMPLOYMENT GROWTH VS BUILDING PERMITS Jobs and housing show US recovery gathering momentum US employment growth yoy% US building permits (mm) (rhs) 2013 In Japan, while weak external demand for exports is keeping a lid on manufacturing growth, domestic demand and investment growth are firmly on the rise. Household consumption has also stabilised. Unemployment is at an 18-year low, wage growth is on a clear uptrend and while inflation has increased modestly, it remains well below the Bank of Japan s target. In the emerging world, China s sluggish economy shows only very tentative signs of stabilisation following aggressive monetary easing. Property prices rose for the first time in more than a year in May though construction remains depressed. Unless the recovery in China gathers strength, however, growth among other developing nations will remain subdued. China s sluggishness and the fallout from a strong US dollar continue to hold back exports among many emerging markets. Turning to liquidity, money growth has more than halved in the US over the last three months to a 3 per cent annualised rate, which may be a sign of the Fed testing responses to tighter policy before it raises rates. We continue to believe the Fed will be very patient in hiking rates and will do so only if US growth is above its potential rate of per cent Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream There are no such worries in Europe, however, where liquidity is abundant thanks to ECB stimulus, making the region a bright spot for investing. The same applies in Japan, where ample liquidity is buoying the economy, prompting a boom in capital expenditure which, coming alongside record corporate profits, is a very positive signal. In China, more monetary and macroprudential easing may be required to stabilise growth at the target 7 per cent level set by the government. The recent decision to end the 75 per cent limit on banks loan to deposit ratio, in place since 1995, marks a step in this direction. In terms of sentiment, our readings indicate a knock-on impact from tightening liquidity conditions in the US. Looking at the breadth of gains on the S&P 500, the market rally is becoming increasingly shallow: the percentage of stocks closing above their 50-day moving average has declined throughout the year to date. Healthcare, information technology, and consumer discretionary are the only sectors propping up the broader index, which suggests the market could be headed for a slowdown, possibly even a correction in the next few months. That said, in terms of valuation, equities remain the most attractive asset class. Ostensibly, stocks are not cheap. According to our model, which compares the price-earnings ratio of S&P 500 constituents to bond yields, inflation and trend GDP growth, stocks are around one standard deviation above fair value. But relative to bonds, equities are attractive we estimate that US bond yields would need to rise above 3 per cent to be more attractive than equities at the current level of corporate earnings. An improving corporate earnings picture also supports the case for equities having further to run. 6 BAROMETER JULY 2015

7 Equity region and sector allocation Emerging market markets downgraded; staying long Europe and Japan In our regional portfolio, we keep our preference for European and Japanese equities based on strong liquidity support and attractive valuations. We move neutral on US stocks, and become more cautious on emerging markets. European and Japanese equities continue to exhibit the best economic and earnings momentum. In these regions, stocks also benefit from strong central bank liquidity and cheap currencies. The European recovery is gathering pace, buoyed by a combination of a weaker euro, lower energy prices and monetary stimulus, and this is creating the conditions for a recovery in profit margins and strong corporate earnings growth. Although economic growth momentum has moderated somewhat in the past two months, data shows that domestic demand is strengthening and activity expanding not just in core euro zone countries, but across the currency bloc. Valuations further support our view European earnings are still 35 per cent below their previous peak. Greece s fraught negotiations with its creditors may cast a shadow over the region s equity markets, but we believe that effects from the Greek crisis will be temporary and contained, with a very low probability of a broader fallout even if bailout negotiations were to collapse completely. Japanese stocks exhibit the most attractive valuations among developed markets. The region s companies have been benefiting from conditions similar to those prevailing in Europe, in the shape of central bank stimulus and a weaker currency. Earnings growth has slowed somewhat in recent months but the picture remains healthier than in other parts of the world. The outlook for Japanese companies is also supported by structural factors. Reforms to unlock value from corporate cash piles and boost shareholders returns are starting to bear fruit and share buybacks EARNINGS CONSENSUS CONTINUES DECLINE IN EMERGING MARKETS 12-month forward earnings, in local currency terms US Europe Japan EM announced since the beginning of the year have already outpaced the record set in We are turning slightly less negative on US stocks to reflect an improvement in economic conditions and corporate earnings. There have been signs in recent weeks that the US economy is staging a rebound following a very weak first quarter. A jump in retail sales in May, a firming housing market and improving business sentiment indicators are all evidence that growth has accelerated in the second quarter. The earnings picture is also turning. Companies reporting earnings for the first quarter surpassed lowered analyst estimates, and the ratio of earnings downgrades to upgrades has moderated. However, profit margins stand at record highs and valuations appear lofty, particularly on long-term cyclically adjusted valuation metrics, justifying a cautious positioning, in our view Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Emerging markets are downgraded from neutral to underweight to reflect less favourable conditions in the shortterm. Emerging market stocks may look attractive from a valuation perspective but economic fundamentals have deteriorated, especially in China, and corporate earnings do not yet show signs of a recovery. A possible rise in US interest rates next September is another risk on the horizon. In our sector allocation, we maintain a cyclical tilt in our portfolio, with a preference for stocks that stand to benefit most from an increase in capital spending, such as industrials. Technology companies are also attractively valued and should withstand higher interest rates better than other sectors thanks to their sizeable cash reserves. Defensive sectors such as healthcare look expensive to us. BAROMETER JULY

8 Moor House 120 London Wall London EC2Y 5ET Fixed Income Shifting government bonds to overweight as Italy, Spain look cheap The sell-off suffered by Spanish and Italian government bonds in the wake of the Greek debt crisis has pushed yield spreads on such securities to attractive levels, particularly in the ultra-long end of the curve. The yield differential between 10-year bonds issued by Spain and Italy and German Bunds has widened by about 50 basis points in the past few weeks and the gap is even wider for 30-year debt (see chart). These latest market moves have encouraged us to increase our exposure to bond markets in the euro zone s periphery; as a consequence, we are now overweight EUR government debt. Although a collapse of Greece s debt negotiations remains a risk for the euro zone as a whole and the indebted countries in the region s periphery in particular, we believe the firewall put in place by the ECB and other institutions should prove sufficient to contain any fallout. Reform and growth are additional components of our investment thesis. Recent data show Italy and Spain are now expanding at a faster pace than Germany. At the same time, both Madrid and Rome have put in place reforms that should raise productivity. Our preference for the long end of the government bond curve is also linked to how we expect monetary policy to unfold in the US. As we believe the Fed will raise interest rates only very gradually once it begins tightening monetary policy later this year, longerdated bonds should fare better than shorter-dated debt, flattening the yield curve. The shift in our government bond stance has been funded by a reduction in our exposure to European highyield bonds. The downgrade is almost entirely down to valuations. Compared to Southern European government bond markets, high yield debt has remained remarkably resilient in recent weeks, which has in turn reduced its appeal. Elsewhere, we remain neutral local currency emerging market bonds. Valuations for the asset class are attractive yields are high and currencies are cheap against the US dollar but we would need to see evidence of a recovery in China s economy before raising our exposure. In the currency markets, we have begun to scale back our exposure to the US dollar. The scope for an additional upward move in the currency is limited not only because US rate rises will be gradual but also because investor positioning in the unit has become excessively bullish even after some unwinding of some short positions in the euro. Olivier Ginguené, Chairman Pictet Asset Management Strategy Unit Luca Paolini, Chief strategist Pictet Asset Management SPREADS RATCHET HIGHER IN ITALIAN AND SPANISH GOVERNMENT BOND MARKETS year Italy government 2.4 bond spread vs Bunds, percentage points year Spain government bond spread vs Bunds, percentage points ABOUT THE PSU Source: Bloomberg The Pictet Asset Management Strategy Unit (PSU) is the investment group responsible for providing asset allocation guidance across stocks, bonds, cash and commodities. Each month, the PSU sets a broad policy stance based on its analysis of: business cycle: proprietary leading indicators, inflation liquidity: monetary policy, credit/money variables valuation: equity risk premium, yield gap, historical earnings multiples sentiment: Pictet sentiment index (investors surveys, tactical indicators) Disclaimer This material is for distribution to professional investors only. 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