New Mexico's Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook
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1 New Mexico's Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook 2015 Economic Outlook 10 th Annual Conference UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research Jeffrey Mitchell Director, BBER
2 Overview: NM Economic conditions and outlook o New Mexico s recovery from the Great Recession has been very slow employment remains nearly 4% below prerecession levels (2008). o Labor force has been hit hard by the stagnation. o But the most recent (preliminary) data is much more promising. o Dramatic drop in oil prices is a mixed blessing for New Mexico. o Preliminary outlook: sustained, unspectacular growth employment reaching pre-recession levels by end UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 2
3 New Mexico s Post-Recession Performance UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 3
4 New Mexico & US employment growth: history Sources: New Mexico FOR-UNM; US IHS Global Insight UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 4
5 Employment growth: NM and Neighboring States (2009=100) Source: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 5
6 Employment growth: Albuquerque and Neighboring Metropolitan Areas (2009=100) Source: BLS Current Economic Survey UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 6
7 Job Growth in Professional & Technical Services: NM and Neighboring States (2009=100) Source: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 7
8 New Mexico employment: rate of growth and state ranking by industrial sector Source: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 8
9 New Mexico private employment: rate of growth and state ranking by establishment size Source: BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Note: Data include only first quarter of each year. UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 9
10 Implications of Economic Stagnation for Population Components of population change Natural Increase Net Migration Births Deaths Int'l Domestic Total Population Change ,307 25,493 11,186 8,061 3,827 4,234 22, ,959 26,577 13,618 7,056 4,734 2,322 20, ,040 29,664 17,624-3,250 1,946-5,196 8, ,674 27,146 16,472-8,809 1,717-10,526 1,865 Source: Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial; 2012 and 2013 Population estimates. UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 10
11 How does the decline in oil prices impact New Mexico s economy? West Texas Intermediate: $46/barrel, $106/barrel in July. 1. Employment impact: lower investment in production, creating fewer jobs in the oil industry and through purchasing by companies and spending by workers. 2. Fiscal impact: reduces state and local government revenues, forcing budget cuts. 3. Consumer impact: lower gasoline prices mean more household spending on local goods & services. UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 11
12 1. Employment impacts of lower production o Impact of lower prices on producers is somewhat delayed. o Employment impact is important locally but less important for the statewide economy. Employment impact of 100 jobs in oil & related industries in Permian Basin (Eddy & Lea Counties) Santa Fe ABQ MSA has 45% of all jobs in NM. Lubbock, TX Las Cruces Midland- Odessa, TX UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 12
13 2. Fiscal impact: Oil & State General Fund o 20% (~$1.2 billion) directly funded by oil & gas: taxes on production on private land, leases and royalties on state and federal lands. o 10% (~$600 million) indirectly funded by income from Permanent Funds. o Permanent fund = $20 billion, up from $12 billion in 2009; 3 rd largest in US (after TX and AK; larger than Canada s). o Oil & gas also funds a share of capital bonds. o Expected loss of $145 million in new money for FY 2016 due to decline in oil prices; 2.5% of expected budget. UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 13
14 Contribution of Oil & Gas to State General Fund Total: $5,590 million (2013) Current O&G (21%) Source: New Mexico Tax Research Institute, January Permanent funds (10%) UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 14
15 3. Consumer impact: more money to spend locally o o o Decline in gasoline prices from $3.50 to $2/gallon will save New Mexico households ~ $1 billion. About $1,200 per household, or 2.5% of median household income. If households spend all of the gasoline savings and the savings were sustained, estimated impact: 6,500 jobs $250 million in wages, salaries & benefits $750 million in total impact Partially offset losses to General Fund UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 15
16 Recent Economic Data UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 16
17 New Mexico & US employment growth: forecast 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Employment growth (seasonally adjusted, year-over-year) 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Economic Survey Gain of 14,700 jobs in November (vs. year earlier) Nov 2014 UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 17
18 Recent employment gains: rate of growth and state ranking by industrial sector Q July-Nov %/yr Rank %/yr Rank Private 0.7% % 35 Natural resources and mining 8.0% 4 3.8% 20 Construction -1.2% % 33 Manufacturing 0.1% % 49 Transportation, and utilities 0.8% % 26 Retail 0.1% % 20 Financial activities -0.1% % 2 Professional and business services -0.4% % 49 Education and health services 1.9% % 7 Leisure and hospitality 1.9% % 40 Other services -1.0% % 10 Public -1.3% % 33 Total 0.4% % 24 Source: BLS Current Economic Survey (including preliminary data) UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 18
19 New Mexico Economic Outlook (Preliminary) UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 19
20 New Mexico economic outlook o Forecast little changed since 2014 Q3 and Q4 offsetting impacts of oil price decline. o o o o o Steady job growth sustained through 2017, adding about 10,000 per year, reaching pre-recession levels by end Leading sectors: health care, transportation. Non-metro fades (oil), Albuquerque rises (slowly), Las Cruces remains fastest growing region. Upside risk: housing markets and construction employment New Mexico forecast well below IHS national outlook. Downside risk: global recession holds back US. UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 20
21 Forecast Assumptions IHS Global Insight outlook for United States: o o o Oil prices: 2015 average $64, 2016 average $75/barrel. Interest rates rise slowly (0.25% per quarter), beginning June 2015 and peaking in 2017 at 3.75%. Weak growth of trading partners (2%/year), $ strong. Assumptions for New Mexico: o Spending increases by federal, state & local governments remain constrained. o Medicaid expansion gets traction. UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 21
22 New Mexico & US employment growth forecast (preliminary) 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% New Mexico United States Sources: New Mexico: FORUNM; US IHS Global Insight UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 22
23 New Mexico & US Income growth forecast (preliminary) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% New Mexico United States 0% -1% Sources: New Mexico: FORUNM; US IHS Global Insight UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 23
24 New Mexico Housing Permits: Single & Multi-Family Units, NM Housing Permits (Multi Family) NM Housing Permits (Single Family) Source: FOR-UNM UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 24
25 Western Blue Chip: forecasted employment and income growth, % 5% 4.4% 4.8% 4.9% 5.4% 5.0% 4% 3% 2% 2.0% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 1% 1.1% 0% US New Mexico Arizona Colorado Nevada Texas Utah Employment Personal Income UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 25
26 Western Blue Chip: forecasted employment and income growth, % 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1.8% 5.0% 1.3% 4.4% 5.3% 4.9% 3.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 6.0% 2.8% 4.8% 1% 0% US New Mexico Arizona Colorado Nevada Texas Utah Employment Personal Income UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 26
27 Employment gain/loss by region, % 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% Albuquerque Las Cruces Santa Fe Non-Metro UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research 27
28 New Mexico's Economy: Recent Developments and Outlook 2015 Economic Outlook 10 th Annual Conference UNM Bureau of Business & Economic Research Jeffrey Mitchell Director, BBER
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