Undergraduate Student Persistence and Completion: Do Pell Grants Matter?

Transcription

1 Undergraduate Student Persistence and Completion: Do Pell Grants Matter? Charles Hatcher, California Competes CAIR Conference, Tongshan Chang, University of California Office of the President November 20, 2013

2 Motivation What is the purpose of financial aid? 1. Incent Enrollment Boost the Academic Profile of the incoming class Promote/Advertise Socioeconomic Diversity 2. Provide Support : $$ could increase the likelihood of student success

3 (1) And (2) are not mutually exclusive, but they aren t identical either

4 Federal Pell Grant Program Federal Effort to exclusively provide SUPPORT Financial Aid for College Students with no Bachelor s Degree Can be used at participating (accredited) institutions Attached to Students, not schools

5 Federal Pell Grant Program Pell eligibility and amount based on federally determined Expected Family Contribution (EFC) Amount determined additionally by the cost of attendance Maximum Grant is $5645 per year in Maximum Duration of Eligibility is the equivalent of 6 years of full-time funding

6 Federal Pell Grant Program Academic Year Max Pell Award Average Pell Award (US) #UC Recipients UC Pell Revenue ($MIL) $4050 $2494 $148M $ $4310 $ ,807 $ $4731 $ ,809 $191M $ $5350 $ ,747 $269M $9896 UC UG Resident Tuition&Fees $5550 $ ,505 $317M $11, $5550 $ ,376 $331M $13,181

7 Common Factors that lead to student High School Grades success? Difficulty of the curriculum Highest level of math completed Standardized Test Scores Effects depend on race and gender Institutional Characteristics and Match is important

8 What are the effects of Financial Aid/Pell Grants on Student Success Schools that admit more Pell Student tend to have lower graduation rates Overall, the literature is mixed with respect to the effect of Pell on Student Success Studies which control for other factors of success tend to show a positive relationship between grant aid and success.

9 Our Research Questions: Who Are Pell Grant Recipients in the First Year? Who Receives Pell Grants in ANY of the first 4 years? Who Receives Pell Grants in ALL of the first four years? What Happens to them?

10 Our Study s Population: The Fall 2006 UC System Freshman Cohort 40,000 37,461 35,000 30,000 25,000 25,037 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 12,424 9,749 6,100 0 All Students Never Received Pell Received Pell at least 1yr Received Pell in 1st yr Received Pell 4yrs

11 Who Are Pell Grant Recipients in the First Year? 40,000 35,000 34,786 30,000 25,000 25,037 20,000 15,000 10,000 9,749 5,000 0 Received Pell Freshman Year Never received Pell "Total"

12 Fall 2006 cohort First-Year Pell students by GENDER 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated Gender Category 40% 20% 30% 28% 25% 0% Female Male

13 Fall 2006 cohort First-Year Pell students by RACE/ETHNICITY 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated Ethnic Category 40% 20% 0% 22% American Indian 44% African American 51% Chicano/ Latino 28% 32% 21% 11% Asian White Unknown

14 Fall 2006 cohort First-Year Pell students by FIRST-GEN STATUS 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated FG Category 40% 56% 28% 20% 0% 12% 14% First Generation Not First Generation Unknown

15 100% Fall 2006 cohort First-Year Pell students by average SAT Critical Reading and Math scores 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated SAT Category 40% 20% 0% 34% 28% 19% 11% SAT SAT SAT SAT

16 Fall 2006 cohort First-Year Pell students by HS RANK 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated Ranking Category 40% 20% 0% 69% 53% 37% 28% 27% 19% 12% Rank 1-2 Rank 3-4 Rank 5-6 Rank 7-8 Rank 9-10 Private HS

17 Fall 2006 cohort First-Year Pell students by HS GPA 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated GPA Category 40% 20% 42% 37% 36% 32% 32% 29% 28% 25% 28% 20% 0% 2.79 and Below and Above

18 Who Receives Pell Grants in ANY of the first 4 years? 40,000 37,461 35,000 30,000 25,000 25,037 20,000 15,000 12,424 10,000 5,000 0 Ever Received Pell Never received Pell Total

19 Fall 2006 cohort Ever-Received Pell by GENDER 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated Gender Category 40% 20% 38% 33% 32% 0% Female Male

20 Fall 2006 cohort Ever-Received Pell by RACE/ETHNICITY 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated Ethnic Category 40% 20% 31% 53% 41% 17% 33% 29% 0% American Indian African American Chicano/ Latino Asian White Unknown

21 Fall 2006 cohort Ever-Received Pell by FIRST-GEN STATUS 100% 80% 40% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated FG Category 66% 33% 20% 0% 19% 20% First Generation Not First Generation Unknown

22 Fall 2006 cohort Ever-Received Pell by average SAT Critical Reading and Math 100% 80% 68% Scores Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated SAT Category 40% 43% 33% 20% 26% 17% 0% SAT SAT SAT SAT

23 Fall 2006 cohort Ever-Received Pell by H.S. RANK 100% 80% 77% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated Ranking Category 62% 40% 20% 45% 36% 27% 33% 18% 0% Rank 1-2 Rank 3-4 Rank 5-6 Rank 7-8 Rank 9-10 Private HS

24 Fall 2006 cohort Ever-Received Pell by H.S. GPA 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated GPA Category 40% 46% 42% 41% 33% 38% 37% 35% 33% 30% 20% 24% 0% 2.79 and Below and Above

25 Who Receives Pell Grants in ALL of the first 4 years? 35,000 30,000 25,000 28,686 34,786 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 6,100 0 Pell all 4 yrs Never Pell "Total"

26 Fall Year Pell Students by GENDER 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated Gender Category Overall Percent of Pell Recipients 40% 20% 0% 19% Female 18% 16% Male

27 Fall Year Pell Students by RACE/ETHNICITY 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated Ethnic Category 40% 20% 0% 10% American Indian 27% African American 31% Chicano/ Latino 18% 22% 6% 13% Asian White Unknown

28 Fall Year Pell Students by FIRST-GEN STATUS 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated FG Category 40% 20% 37% 18% 0% First Generation Not First Generation Unknown 7% 8%

29 Fall Year Pell Students by SAT SCORE 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated SAT Category 40% 20% 0% 36% 18% 22% 12% 7% SAT SAT SAT SAT

30 Fall Year Pell Students by H.S. RANK 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated Ranking Category 40% 20% 0% 44% 35% 18% 23% 17% 12% 7% Rank 1-2 Rank 3-4 Rank 5-6 Rank 7-8 Rank 9-10 Private HS

31 Fall Year Pell Students by H.S. G.P.A. 100% 80% Pell Recipients as % of Enrollees in the Stated GPA Category 40% 20% 0% 25% 24% 23% 22% 22% 21% 21% 2.79 and Below 18% 18% 14% and Above

32 OUTCOMES The Relationship between Pell Status and Student Characteristics Focus Students Defined Black or Hispanic First Generation Low GPA (3.4 or lower) (1173 of the Fall Freshman Cohort (3.3%))

33 Outcomes: First Year Persistence 100% 80% 40% 90.90% 92.98% 20% 0% First Year Pell Recipient Never Received Pell

34 Outcomes: First Year Persistence Logistic Regression Model on First Year Retention Model I Model II Model III Model IV Model V Odds Ratio p Odds Ratio p Odds Ratio p Odds Ratio p Odds Ratio p Pell First Year Elite Campuses HS GPA Test Score URM First Generation Focus Student

35 Outcomes: Second Year Persistence 100% 80% 40% 83.72% 85.34% 20% 0% First Year Pell Recipient Never Received Pell

36 Outcomes: Second Year Persistence Logistic Regression Model on Second Year Retention Odds Ratio Model I Model II Model III Model IV Model V p Odds Ratio p Odds Ratio p Odds Ratio p Odds Ratio Pell First Year p Elite Campuses HS GPA Test Score URM First Generation Focus Group

37 Outcomes: 4 Year Graduation Rates 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 52.5% 64.8% 50.1% 64.4% 60.0% 73.2% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Ever Received Pell Never Received Pell Received Pell 1st Year Did NOT Receive Pell 1st Year Received Pell all 4 Years Did Not Receive Pell all 4 Years

38 Outcomes: 6 Year Graduation Rates 100% 80% 81.6% 84.7% 79.1% 85.4% 40% 20% 0% Ever Received Pell Never Received Pell Received Pell 1st Year Did NOT Receive Pell 1st Year

39 Logistic Regression: Ever-had-Pell on 4- Year Graduation Model I Model II Model III Model IV Model V Odds Odds Odds Odds Odds Ratio p Ratio p Ratio p Ratio p Ratio p Ever had Pell Elite Campuses HS GPA Test Score URM First Generation Focus Group

40 Logistic Regression: First-Year-Pell on Four-Year Graduation Model I Model II Model III Model IV Model V Odds Odds Odds Odds Odds Ratio p Ratio p Ratio p Ratio p Ratio p Pell First Year Elite Campuses HS GPA Test Score URM First Generation Focus Group

41 Logistic Regression: All-4-Years-Pell on Four-Year Graduation Model I Model II Model III Model IV Model V Odds Odds Odds Odds Odds Ratio p Ratio p Ratio p Ratio p Ratio p Pell All 4 Years Elite Campuses HS GPA Test Score URM First Generation Focus Group

42 Findings Pell and non-pell students have similar rates of first and second year persistence When controlling for other factors, Pell students persist slightly better than non-pell students Pell students have significantly lower 4 year graduation rates, even when controlling for student characteristics.

43 Further Questions What happens between 2 years and graduation? What about 6-year Graduation? How are CSU and CCC Different? What are the effects of other types of aid? How will the new six-year eligibility limit effect these results?

44 THANK YOU! Questions?