1 Which Path? A Roadmap to a Student s Best College National College Access Network National Conference Mary Nguyen Barry September 16, 2014
2 THE EDUCATION TRUST WHO WE ARE The Education Trust works for the high academic achievement of all students at all levels, prekindergarten through college, and forever closing the achievement gaps that separate low-income students and students of color from other youth. Our basic tenet is this All children will learn at high levels when they are taught to high levels. WHAT WE DO Advocacy to help schools, colleges, and communities mount campaigns to close gaps Research and policy analysis on patterns and practices that both cause and close gaps Technical assistance to schools, colleges, and community-based organizations to raise student achievement and close gaps
4 Getting a college degree has never been more urgent.
5 By 2018, the U.S. workforce will have a shortfall of 3 million college degrees. Source: Carnevale, Smith, and Strohl, Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018.
6 60% Of year olds with degrees by 2020 THE COLLEGE ATTAINMENT GOAL 8,000,000 Additional degrees needed by % Total percent growth needed each year to meet 2020 goal Source: NCHEMS (2010). Closing the College Attainment Gap between the U.S. and Most Educated Countries, and the Contributions to be made by the States. and analysis by The Education Trust THE EDUCATION TRUST
7 A college education is also essential for individual advancement THE EDUCATION TRUST
8 Education is associated with a larger increase in earnings than almost any other factor. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates, September 2011.
9 Worker characteristic Having a bachelor s degree is associated with a larger increase in earnings than race, English proficiency, citizenship, or age Effect of selected characteristics on annual earnings Does not speak English well African American Hispanic Not a citizen Asian Male years old Bachelor's degree -$8,349 -$5,757 -$3,415 -$2,446 -$760 $12,741 $12,808 $22,607 -$10,000 -$5,000 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 Change in median annual earnings Note: Reference is a US-born, year-old, English-speaking, white woman who has earned a high school diploma and who lives in the East South Central region of the United States who works full-time year-round. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates, September 2011.
10 Median Earnings ($) College-educated adults earn more Taxes Paid After-Tax Earnings $100,000 $80,000 $20,300 $23,400 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- $4,100 $21,000 No High School $6,400 $7,500 $8,600 $29,000 $32,900 $36,200 High School Some College, No Degree Associate Degree $11,400 $45,100 Bachelor's Degree Education Level $14,800 $55,200 Master's Degree $70,700 Doctoral Degree $78,800 Professional Degree Source: College Board, Education Pays, 2013, Figure 1.1: Median Earnings and Tax Payments of Full-Time Year-Round Workers Ages 25 and Older, by Education Level,
11 And are less likely to be unemployed Unemployment rates of adults age 25 and over, % 8.3% 4.0% Less than a high school diploma High school graduate, no college Bachelor's degree or higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian non-institutional population 25 years and over by educational attainment, sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, 2012.
12 Start With The End In Mind - On Time Graduation! Goals 1. College is essential. But you must start with the end in mind. 2. College selection matters, given the stratification of our higher education system. 3. The Education Trust s College Decision Roadmap and College Results Online can guide students in their college search and selection process to find the best fit college.
13 Overview 1. Highlight national trends in college access and completion. 2. Demonstrate how the College Decision Roadmap can help students research colleges on College Results Online (CRO), to identify the best and worst colleges for college access and success. 3. Provide a hands-on opportunity to practice using CRO and the College Decision Roadmap to guide students in their college search and selection process.
14 Different groups of young Americans obtain degrees at very different rates. 14
15 Some students are far more likely than others to attain a college degree Bachelor s degree attainment of young adults (25-29 year olds) 40% 2x 24% 11% 20% 2.5x 9% 16% White Black Hispanic Source: NCES, Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-22-1) and U.S. Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2013.
16 Percent with Bachelor s Degree by Age 24 Young adults from high-income families are 7 times more likely to earn bachelor s degrees by age % 80% 60% 40% 79% 7x 20% 0% Highest income quartile 11% Lowest income quartile Source: Tom Mortenson, Bachelor s Degree Attainment by age 24 by Family Income Quartiles, 1970 to 2010, Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2012.
17 Gaps in Degree Attainment 1. Gaps in college-going 2. Gaps in success 3. Gaps in college price
18 Gaps in Degree Attainment 1. Gaps in college-going 2. Gaps in success 3. Gaps in college price
19 Percentage of High School Graduates Enrolled in College the Fall After Graduation Immediate College-Going Increasing for All Racial/Ethnic Groups: 1972 to % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% African American Latino White Note: Source: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school Source: NCES, The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table ) THE EDUCATION TRUST
20 Percentage of High School Graduates Enrolled in College the Fall After Graduation College-Going Generally Increasing for All Income Groups 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low-Income High-Income Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school Source: NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-1) and The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table ) THE EDUCATION TRUST
21 But gaps still exist between whites and underrepresented minority groups. 80% Percentage of high school completers who enrolled in a 2- or 4- year college immediately following high school graduation, % 70% 65% 66% 62% 69% 60% 55% Source: 50% White African American Latino Source: NCES, The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 Table THE EDUCATION TRUST
22 And significant gaps remain for low-income students Percentage of high school graduates immediately enrolling in in a 2- or 4-year college, % 52% 64% 23% Low Income High Income Note: Data for black, Hispanic, and low-income represent two-year moving average because of small sample sizes. 22 Source: NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-3) and The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table )
23 Gaps in Degree Attainment 1. Gaps in college-going 2. Gaps in success 3. Gaps in college price
24 Graduation Rates (%) Black, Latino, and American Indian Freshmen Complete College at Lower Rates Than Other Students year bachelor s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2006 cohort at 4-year institutions Overall rate: 59% % 40% 52% 71% 40% 10 0 White Black Latino Asian American Indian Source: Source: NCES (December 2013). Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, , First Look (Provisional Data) Table THE EDUCATION TRUST
25 What contributes to graduation rate gaps?
26 We must ask, access to what?
27 Percent of Students who Undermatch Well-prepared low-income students undermatch into less selective institutions, with lower graduation rates 60% 54% 42% 27% Bottom 25% Second 25% Third 25% Top 25% Income Level Source: Source: Bowen, Chingos, and McPherson, Crossing the Finish Line, 2009.
28 1/5 of black and Pell recipients begin at for-profit colleges Asian White Black Hispanic American Indian Pell recipient Non-Pell recipient % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% For Profit Public 2-Year Public 4-Year Private 4-Year Other Source: Source: Ed Trust analysis of IPEDS Fall enrollment, Fall 2012 (by race) and IPEDS Student Financial Aid survey, (by Pell recipient status) THE EDUCATION TRUST
29 Four-year for-profits have much lower graduation rates than non-profits year bachelor s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2006 cohort at 4-year institutions 60 Public Private, Non-Profit For-Profit 0 4-Year Source: Source: NCES (Dec. 2013). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, , First Look (Provisional Data) Table THE EDUCATION TRUST
30 Access to what? For-profit college companies 11% of enrollments 24% of Pell Grants and federal student loan dollars 48% of federal student loan defaults Source: IPEDS Enrollment Fall 2011 First Look (December 2012); U.S. Department of Education, in Emerging Risk?: An Overview of For-Profit Higher Education. Senate HELP Committee. 24 June 2010 (page 4); and Ed Trust analysis of FY 2009 data in Institutional Default Rate Comparison of FY 2007, , THE and EDUCATION 2009 Default Rates. TRUST
31 Another 2/5 of black and Hispanic students and 1/3 of Pell recipients begin at public community colleges Asian White Black Hispanic American Indian Pell recipient Non-Pell recipient % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% For Profit Public 2-Year Public 4-Year Private 4-Year Other Source: Source: Ed Trust analysis of IPEDS Fall enrollment, Fall 2012 (by race) and IPEDS Student Financial Aid survey, (by Pell recipient status) THE EDUCATION TRUST
32 Graduation Rates (%) Graduation rates at public community colleges % 3 - year completion rates (associate degrees and certificates) for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2009 cohort at public two-year institutions 13% 18% 28% Overall rate: 21.2% 18% White Black Latino Asian American Indian Source: Source: NCES (Dec. 2013). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, , First Look (Provisional Data) Table THE EDUCATION TRUST
33 Chance of attaining a bachelor s degree within six years, among students who begin at community college?
34 Bachelor s Attainment Rate (%) Only 14 percent Percent of students who started at a community college intending to earn a Bachelor s in 2003 and earned a BA degree by % Source: Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:04/06) THE EDUCATION TRUST
35 Gaps in Degree Attainment 1. Gaps in college-going 2. Gaps in success 3. Gaps in college price Source: THE EDUCATION TRUST
36 We must also ask, access at what cost?
37 After all grant and scholarship aid, low-income students must still come up with over 80% of their family income to finance one year of college. 100% Percentage of Income Families Devote to Higher Education 90% 80% 81% 86% 79% 70% 65% 60% 56% 56% 50% 47% 40% 39% 36% 38% 30% 20% 26% 15% 22% 23% 14% 10% 0% Public, 4-year colleges Private, nonprofit 4-year colleges Public, 2-year colleges Lowest income quintile Second income quintile Third income quintile Fourth income quintile Top income quintile Source: Source: Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:12 using PowerStats, Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution undergraduates THE EDUCATION TRUST
38 Closing achievement gaps is key.
39 But, can we do anything about it?
40 College Results Online
42 Why use CRO in the college WHY search CRO? process? Some institutions do a lot better at helping their students graduate within 4 6 years - and some graduate much more low-income and minority students than others.
43 Graduation Rates (%) Black, Latino, and American Indian Freshmen Complete College at Lower Rates Than Other Students year bachelor s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2005 cohort at 4-year institutions Overall rate: 59% % 40% 51% 70% 40% 10 0 White Black Latino Asian American Indian Source: NCES (December 2012). Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2011; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2011; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, , First Look (Provisional Data).
44 CRO Peer Group Methodology Estimated Median SAT or ACT equivalent of freshman class Sector (Public vs. Private) Admissions Selectivity, per Barron's Profiles of American Colleges Percent of full-time, first-time degree/certificate-seeking undergraduate students who received federal Pell grants Number of full-time equivalent undergraduates Percent of full-time equivalent undergraduate students age 25 and over Status as a commuter campus Student-Related Expenditures per full-time equivalent undergraduate Percent of undergraduates who are enrolled part-time Percent of undergraduates who are underrepresented minorities (URM) The percent of degrees awarded in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Status as a Historically Black College or University (HBCU) 44
46 Source: College Results Online, 2014
47 Source: College Results Online, 2014
50 What a college looks like. Source: College Results Online, 2014
51 What a college looks and feels like. 51 Source: College Results Online, 2014
53 How a college performs. 53 Source: College Results Online, 2014
55 How much college costs. 55 Source: College Results Online, 2014
56 A college s VALUE. Source: College Results Online, 2014
58 Graduation Rates (%) Black, Latino, and American Indian Freshmen Complete College at Lower Rates Than Other Students year bachelor s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2005 cohort at 4-year institutions Overall rate: 59% % 40% 51% 70% 40% 10 0 White Black Latino Asian American Indian Source: NCES (December 2012). Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2011; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2011; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, , First Look (Provisional Data).
59 # Institutions Many Four-Year Colleges Have Very High Graduation Rates and Many, Very Low Distribution of Graduation Rates (2012) 6-year bachelor's completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2006 cohort at 4-year institutions Year Grad Rates Source: Ed Trust analysis of 2012 IPEDS Graduation Rates
60 Source: College Results Online, 2014
61 Source: College Results Online, 2014
62 # Institutions Many Four-Year Colleges Enroll Very Many Low-Income Students, Others Very, Very Few 250 Distribution of Pell Enrollment Rates (2012) Enrollment rates of low-income first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2011 cohort at 4-year institutions Pell Freshmen Enrollment Rates Source: Ed Trust analysis of 2012 IPEDS Pell freshmen enrollment rates
63 Source: College Results Online, 2014
64 A Tale of Two Schools San Diego State University San Jose State University Median SAT in 2012 was 1085 Average HS GPA was % of students are URM 31% of freshmen receive Pell Median SAT in 2012 was 1030 Average HS GPA was % of students are URM 42% of freshmen receive Pell Source: College Results Online, 2014
65 SDSU and SJSU are peers, but very different grad rates Source: College Results Online,
66 Retention and progression rates vary greatly Source: College Results Online,
67 Steady improvement in graduation rates at SDSU San Diego State San Jose State Source: College Results Online, 2014
68 Differences in graduation rates for different groups of students Source: College Results Online,
69 Gaps: Some schools do better than others at graduating all students at equal rates Source: College Results Online, 2014
70 Cost and financial aid: cost vs. value Source: College Results Online,
71 Similar students, different results 2012 Six-Year Graduation Rates SDSU 2012 Six-Year Graduation Rates SJSU 80% 80% 70% 60% 66% 62% 70% 60% 50% 50% 47% 40% 40% 37% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% Overall URM 0% Overall URM Note: URM stands for underrepresented minority students and includes African Americans, Hispanics, and American Indians. Source: College Results Online 2014 Dataset.
72 How Can School Counselors Use CRO with Students? Use CRO to discover trends that can be included in career reports/portfolios Graduation rates of colleges your students typically attend Potential alternative institutions with higher graduation rates Use CRO when guiding individual students and parents, while also teaching them how to use the tool Encourage students to use CRO data in a college application essay colleges will definitely take a second look!
73 How Can Teachers Use CRO with Students? Math CRO great for graphing and other math problems English CRO great for persuasive argument assignment
74 How Can Advocates Use CRO? Ask college reps Data on remedial course enrollment Effectiveness of remediation courses Data on student support programs Collaborate with other area high schools Use data to express concern to Dean of Admissions If possible compare to data from other local colleges Start recommending other colleges for students
75 CRO Counseling Exercise: How would you use CRO and the Roadmap to advise a student? Hypothetical example of a Maryland student Use CRO data to advise the student There s no right answer! 75
76 CRO Counseling Exercise: How would you use CRO to advise a student? Consider Jamal: African American male Qualifies for free lunch Top 10% of high school class, on track to receive honors diploma SAT score is 1320 (690 math and 630 verbal) Wants a traditional, residential college experience Initial inclination: Cousin attended Bowie State, maybe attend there as well Wants to stay close to home to help mother on weekends. 76
77 CRO Counseling Exercise What kind of information can you use to help Jamal think carefully about his decision? Based on the CRO handouts, do you think Bowie is the best choice for him? Where can he afford to go? Would there be a better college for him? What would you recommend to Jamal? 77
78 Q & A 78
80 THE EDUCATION TRUST 2014 NATIONAL CONFERENCE Nov , 2014 Register: Additional Title Can Go Here Renaissance Baltimore Harborplace Hotel with questions. Baltimore, Md. xx Month 2014 #EdTrust2014
81 If you want to order copies of the roadmap, or have other questions, contact us! Mary Nguyen Barry Stay connected with The Education Trust online: H Street N.W. Suite 700 Washington, D.C / ext. 362
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