Pipeline & Rail Competition for Crude Transportation in North Dakota. Presentation For: Natural Gas Energy Association Of Oklahoma January 9, 2014
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1 Pipeline & Rail Competition for Crude Transportation in North Dakota Presentation For: Natural Gas Energy Association Of Oklahoma January 9, 2014
2 Agenda» Crude Production Takes Off» Pipeline Constraints» Rail Developments» Competition between Rail and Pipeline 2
3 Conclusions» Increased Crude Production Overwhelms Existing Distribution System» Delays Cause Crude Delivery Logjam and Price Disruption» Rail Terminals Develop to Bypass the Logjam» North Dakota now has adequate takeaway capacity» Rail and Pipeline Compete Based On Crude Differentials 3
4 Mb/d U.S. Crude Oil Production Lower 48 States Alaska 1.5 million b/d Increase from Source: BENTEK and EIA 4
5 MMb/d Canadian Oil Production
6 MMB/d MMB/d U.S. & Canada Crude Oil Production U.S. Crude Oil Production Canada Crude Oil Production
7 Oil (million b/d) Permian, Williston, Eagle Ford Permian Williston Eagle Ford» The Eagle Ford, Williston and Permian have been responsible for almost all of the U.S. production growth since 2010» These are the plays with the highest rates of return for producers Source: BENTEK and HPDI 7
8 000s b/d U.S. Oil Production 10 MMb/d in ,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, , Source: Bentek/RBN 8
9 Mb/d Bakken Production North Dakota 1, North Dakota Crude Production» North Dakota crude production increased 275% in the 3 years to Oct 13» Rate of increase slowing but still up 25 % in the past year 0 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 9
10 Forecast Increase in ND Production 0.6 MMb/d Increase» Base case production increase to 1.4 MMb/d by 2022» High Case increase to 1.6 MMb/d Source: North Dakota Pipeline Authority 10
11 Mb/d Pipeline Takeaway Capacity 1,400 1,200 1, North Dakota Crude Production and Takeaway Capacity Oil Production Pipeline Cap.» Pipeline capacity has not accommodated production since Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13 11
12 True 160 Mb/d Bakken Pipeline Takeaway» Pipeline takeaway capacity 515 Mb/d» Mandan Refinery 68 Mb/d» Total 583 Mb/d» Production 941 Mb/d» Additional constraints developed downstream Tesoro Mandan Refinery 68 Mb/d Source: BENTEK 12
13 North America Crude Oil Flows 13
14 System Overload! Canada West Coast No Pipeline Access Bakken East Coast No Pipeline Access Niobrara Permian Eagle Ford Gulf Coast Waiting for Pipeline Build out Source: Muse, Stancil & Co. 14
15 Differentials to WTI Cushing New Mexico Cushing, OK WTI $0.0 Midland WTI - $4.0 Permian Basin LLS + $18.0 Texas Houston St James, Louisiana Brent + $
16 Rail Transport Development» Bakken crude prices discounted by pipeline congestion» Coastal prices higher» Rail development cycle is short» Build out of rail loading in
17 North Dakota Rail Build Out Unit Trains 100+ tank cars 66,000+ barrels per train Same origin and destination Usually same commodity and shipper 17
18
19 North Dakota Rail Terminals
20 Mb/d North Dakota Takeaway Capacity North Dakota Crude Production and 1,400 Takeaway Capacity 1,200 1, Oil Production Rail Capacity Pipeline Cap.» Rail capacity more than makes up for pipeline gap» Rail provides shippers with better netbacks Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 20
21 Bakken Netback Analysis» Producers/shippers will choose markets that maximize netbacks» Netbacks are a function of (a) transportation costs, and (b) the differentials between destination crude prices» Brent (East Coast), LLS (Gulf Coast), WTI (Midwest), ANS (West Coast) 21
22 Bakken Netbacks 1/7/13 95 NW/R 95 G/R 80 C/R 84 C/P 99 G/P 94 E/R 109 NW NW by Rail,, Gulf by Rail 8 92 Cush Gulf by Pipe East Gulf 22
23 Bakken Netbacks 10/24/13 88 NW/R 83 G/R 84 C/R 88 C/P 87 G/P 91 E/R 102 NW NW by Rail,, Gulf by Rail 8 96 Cush Gulf by Pipe East Gulf 23
24 Bakken Netbacks Summary 24
25 Mb/d Bakken Production And Rail Volumes Estimated Williston Basin Rail Export Volumes Crude Production Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes Rail volumes fall off in Q due to lower differentials Source: NDPA (North Dakota Pipeline Authority) 25
26 Price/Netback Outlook NW Mid NW by Rail Gulf by Rail Cushing Weak Gulf by Pipe East Strong Gulf Very Weak 26
27 Conclusions» Increased Crude Production Overwhelms Existing Distribution System» Delays Cause Crude Delivery Logjam and Price Disruption» Rail Terminals Develop to Bypass the Logjam» North Dakota now has adequate takeaway capacity» Rail and Pipeline Compete Based On Crude Differentials 27
28 Sandy Fielden 3333 Allen Parkway, Suite 1807 Houston, TX, 28
Crude Pipeline & Rail Infrastructure Overview. Presentation For: 8 th Annual Pipeline Development & Expansion Conference September 17, 2013
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