Crude By Rail. James Cairns Vice President, Petroleum and Chemicals June 6 th, COQA
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1 Crude By Rail James Cairns Vice President, Petroleum and Chemicals June 6 th, COQA
2 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS The financial results in this presentation were determined on the basis of U.S. GAAP. Please refer to the website for the reconciliation of certain non- GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures. To the extent we have provided guidance which are non-gaap financial measures, we may not be able to provide a reconciliation to the GAAP measures, due to unknown variables and uncertainty related to future results. Certain information included in this presentation constitutes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and under Canadian securities laws. CN cautions that, by their nature, these forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. The Company cautions that its assumptions may not materialize and that current economic conditions render such assumptions, although reasonable at the time they were made, subject to greater uncertainty. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or performance of the Company or the rail industry to be materially different from the outlook or any future results or performance implied by such statements. Key assumptions used in determining forward-looking information are set forth below. Key assumptions CN has made a number of economic and market assumptions in preparing its 2013 outlook. The Company is forecasting that North American industrial production for the year will increase by about 2.0 per cent. CN also expects U.S. housing starts to be in the range of 950,000 units and U.S. motor vehicles sales to be approximately 15 million units. In addition, CN is assuming that 2013/2014 grain crop production in both Canada and the U.S. will be in-line with their respective five-year averages. With respect to the 2012/2013 crop, production in Canada was slightly above the five-year average while production in the U.S. was below the five-year average. With these assumptions, CN assumes carload growth of three to four per cent, along with continued pricing improvement above inflation. CN also assumes the Canadian- U.S. exchange rate to be around parity for 2013 and that the price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) for the year to be in the range of US$90-$100 per barrel. In 2013, CN plans to invest approximately C$1.9 billion in capital programs, of which more than C$1 billion will be targeted on track infrastructure to maintain a safe and fluid railway network. In addition, the Company will invest in projects to support a number of productivity and growth initiatives. Important risk factors that could affect the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the effects of general economic and business conditions, industry competition, inflation, currency and interest rate fluctuations, changes in fuel prices, legislative and/or regulatory developments, compliance with environmental laws and regulations, actions by regulators, various events which could disrupt operations, including natural events such as severe weather, droughts, floods and earthquakes, labor negotiations and disruptions, environmental claims, uncertainties of investigations, proceedings or other types of claims and litigation, risks and liabilities arising from derailments, and other risks detailed from time to time in reports filed by CN with securities regulators in Canada and the United States. Reference should be made to Management s Discussion and Analysis in CN s annual and interim reports, Annual Information Form and Form 40-F filed with Canadian and U.S. securities regulators, available on CN s website, for a summary of major risk factors. CN assumes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect future events, changes in circumstances, or changes in beliefs, unless required by applicable Canadian securities laws. In the event CN does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be made that CN will make additional updates with respect to that statement, related matters, or any other forward-looking statement.
3 Balanced Portfolio Q Intermodal 20% Petroleum and Chemicals 15% Crude & Condensate 4% Grain and Fertilizers 16% Forest Products 14% Metals and Minerals 11% Other Revenues 8% Coal 7% Automotive 5% This is CN Crude is a Relatively Small Component of CN s Traffic Mix Based on Q revenues
4 Creating Capacity for Growth Investing smartly to improve network resilience and drive productivity Speed and train length create network capacity New detour route on Prairie North Line (PNL) Additional long sidings increasing capacity New sections of doubletrack improving network resilience Increasing Symington Yard capacity Increasing capital envelope by C$100M this year 4
5 Monthly Loading/Unloading Avg Cars>24 hrs Creating Capcity- Rateability Pipeline Management Initiative Increased Volumes Consistent Dwell Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Cars Loaded/Unloaded Cars Dwelling >24 hours Customer able to accept 44% higher volumes with 33% lower dwell times
6 CN s Commitment to Safety is Unwavering Railroads have a tremendous safety record for moving hazardous materials, including crude oil percent of rail hazmat shipments reach their destination without a release caused by a train accident The federal governments (Canada and U.S.) have comprehensive regulations covering the safety and security of the movement of hazardous materials by rail including the U.S. DOT, Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and Transport Canada (TC) CN 2013 capital program of about $1.9B with more than C$1 billion targeted on track infrastructure CN FRA Accident Ratio (accident rate per million train miles) CN FRA Injury Ratio (injury frequency rate per 200,000 work hours)
7 Rail Does Not Preclude Pipe 7
8 Benefits of Shipping Crude by Rail Lower capital cost / lower risk Real market access right now Short lead time from concept to shipment Dispatchability (not locked into one geographic pocket) Scalability grow into a pipeline project 8 8 8
9 Why Rail, Why Now First wave of CBR borne out of pipeline capacity constraints Second wave driven by crude price differentials Brent versus WTI Current wave driven by pure rail economics for heavy crudes Modeling Period Large Volume Firm Commitment Pipeline Small Volume Rail (17% Condensate) Bitumen Netback Bitumen Netback Diluent Haulback Netback + Haulback Trailing 1 Year $39.60 $64.91 $5.58 $70.49 Trailing 3 Year $46.78 $55.55 $1.83 $57.38 Since Jan 2007 $46.83 $45.55 $3.95 $49.50
10 30% 70% Pipelines ship dilbit, refineries buy bitumen Bitumen by rail Dilbit by pipeline
11 CN directly overlays the major heavy crude producing regions (Peace River, Athabasca, Cold Lake) Strong presence in the Canadian Bakken light crude region, with 3 operating facilities and 2 more in development PEACE RIVER Roma Sexsmith Mitsue Whitecourt High Level ATHABASCA Bruderheim East Edmonton Mannville Islay Lloydminster Wainwright Lashburn Unity Kindersley Lynton Cheecham COLD LAKE Operating Distribution Centers Under Development Future Development CN s Unique Franchise Close proximity to AB, SK and MB production and pipe line hubs Regina
12 Direct Access to Eastern Canada Consumers and Tidewater Tracy Montreal Saint John Limoilou Saint-Romuald Dartmouth Physical access to all Eastern Canada refineries; Sarnia ON, Nanticoke ON, Saint John NB, Saint-Romuald PQ Sarnia Nanticoke Physical access to seaway distribution terminals; Tracy, Quebec City Woodhaven Toledo Chicago Detroit Tidewater access to PADD I, PADD III, Europe and India Wood River CN served crude destination site Offline crude destination site
13 Jackson Direct Access to Gulf Coast PADD III Consumers Genesis (Baton Rouge) LBC Sunshine (St. Gabriel) Genesis (Natchez) Crosstex (Geismar) Valero (Norco) IMTT (St.Rose) Stone Oil (Manchac) ARC (Mobile) Single-line high-velocity turnaround service from Alberta / SK oilfields to PADD III refineries. Capacity available right away. Access refineries directly from Baton Rouge to New Orleans corridor Access refineries by barge / pipeline up to Houston ship channel via CN-served tidewater distribution terminals Lynton, AB to Natchez, MS 2,800 rail miles
14 14
15 Fort McMurray (Cheecham) Kitimat Edmonton CN condensate hubs Finding Bigfoot Peak of 50,000 barrels per day Currently 30,000 barrels per day CN Rail is an element of the condensate supply strategy
16 Rail Car Production The Future is Heavy New tank cars in service 2012 vs. 2015* In the third quarter of 2012 alone, ~4,500 tank cars were delivered *CN Estimate
17 2011: Manifest - CN Facilitated Transload 2012: Manifest - truck to tank to rail 2013: Unit Train - Pipe to tank to unit train Facility Development: Shifting to Unit Train Infrastructure Now Open - Rail loading facility and tank farm for crude in Fort McMurray, AB
18 CN Crude by Rail Adoption Rate Carloads - Thousands Long haul crude traffic (average length of haul miles) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, F All traffic Manuf acturing Crude 0 1,000 2,000 Crude by rail is now a meaningful component of the crude supply chain
19 CN Facility Development: Shifting to Unit Train Infrastructure Origin Region Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train Peace River Athabasca Edmonton Lloydminster Bakken Destination Location Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train Manifest Unit Train East Coast USGC West Coast
20 In Summary The CN Advantage Superior geographic reach Rail economics for heavy crudes are not spread dependant Rail car and facility constrains are being addressed. Rapid expansion of unit train capacity on CN s network Connectivity to Brent markets on 3 coasts Can t beat single line connectivity The J gets us around Chicago CN s is committed to being a supply chain enabler
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