Crude By Rail. James Cairns Vice President, Petroleum and Chemicals

Transcription

1 Crude By Rail James Cairns Vice President, Petroleum and Chemicals

2 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS The financial results in this presentation were determined on the basis of U.S. GAAP. Please refer to the website for the reconciliation of certain non- GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures. To the extent we have provided guidance which are non-gaap financial measures, we may not be able to provide a reconciliation to the GAAP measures, due to unknown variables and uncertainty related to future results. Certain information included in this presentation constitutes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and under Canadian securities laws. CN cautions that, by their nature, these forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. The Company cautions that its assumptions may not materialize and that current economic conditions render such assumptions, although reasonable at the time they were made, subject to greater uncertainty. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or performance of the Company or the rail industry to be materially different from the outlook or any future results or performance implied by such statements. Key assumptions used in determining forward-looking information are set forth below. Key assumptions CN has made a number of economic and market assumptions in preparing its 2013 outlook. The Company is forecasting that North American industrial production for the year will increase by about 2.0 per cent. CN also expects U.S. housing starts to be in the range of 950,000 units and U.S. motor vehicles sales to be approximately 15 million units. In addition, CN is assuming that 2013/2014 grain crop production in both Canada and the U.S. will be in-line with their respective five-year averages. With respect to the 2012/2013 crop, production in Canada was slightly above the five-year average while production in the U.S. was below the five-year average. With these assumptions, CN assumes carload growth of three to four per cent, along with continued pricing improvement above inflation. CN also assumes the Canadian- U.S. exchange rate to be around parity for 2013 and that the price of crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) for the year to be in the range of US$90-$100 per barrel. In 2013, CN plans to invest approximately C$1.9 billion in capital programs, of which more than C$1 billion will be targeted on track infrastructure to maintain a safe and fluid railway network. In addition, the Company will invest in projects to support a number of productivity and growth initiatives. Important risk factors that could affect the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the effects of general economic and business conditions, industry competition, inflation, currency and interest rate fluctuations, changes in fuel prices, legislative and/or regulatory developments, compliance with environmental laws and regulations, actions by regulators, various events which could disrupt operations, including natural events such as severe weather, droughts, floods and earthquakes, labor negotiations and disruptions, environmental claims, uncertainties of investigations, proceedings or other types of claims and litigation, risks and liabilities arising from derailments, and other risks detailed from time to time in reports filed by CN with securities regulators in Canada and the United States. Reference should be made to Management s Discussion and Analysis in CN s annual and interim reports, Annual Information Form and Form 40-F filed with Canadian and U.S. securities regulators, available on CN s website, for a summary of major risk factors. CN assumes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect future events, changes in circumstances, or changes in beliefs, unless required by applicable Canadian securities laws. In the event CN does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be made that CN will make additional updates with respect to that statement, related matters, or any other forward-looking statement.

3 A Great Franchise Balanced Portfolio Intermodal 20% Petroleum and Chemicals 17% Grain and Fertilizers 16% Forest Products 13% Metals and Minerals 11% Other Revenues 10% Coal 7% Automotive 6% Connecting Canadian crude production with desirable markets 3

4 Rail Does Not Preclude Pipe CN FRA Accident Ratio (accident rate per million train miles)

5 5 Rail is lower cost, lower risk Better crude netback (the bottom line) Rail is speed to market Dispatchability (not locked into one geographic pocket) Scalability

6 6 CN Crude by Rail Adoption Rate Carloads - Thousands Long haul crude traffic (average length of haul miles) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, F All traffic Manuf acturing Crude 0 1,000 2,000 Crude by rail is now a meaningful component of the crude supply chain

7 4 2011: Manifest - CN Facilitated Transload 2012: Manifest - truck to tank to rail 2013: Unit Train - Pipe to tank to unit train Facility Development: Shifting to Unit Train Infrastructure Now Open - Rail loading facility and tank farm for crude in Fort McMurray, AB

8 8 Why Rail, Why Now 1. First wave of crude by rail bourne out of necessity - production exceeded pipeline takeaway capacity 2. Second wave driven by differentials - rail connected WTI crudes to Brent markets. 3. Current wave driven by pure rail economics for heavy crudes Brent Crude Oil Prices vs WTI and Western Canada Select (US dollars) Differentials as of March 20th, 2013 WCS v Brent $35.64 WCS v WTI $20.03 Brent v WTI $ Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan WTI WCS

9 9 30% 70% Pipelines ship dilbit, refineries buy bitumen Bitumen by rail Dilbit by pipeline

10 Source: Bloomberg (based on average monthly prices, as at January ), CAPP and Cenovus. 1. Assumes blending ratio of 29%; assumes WCS:CLB differential from Bloomberg from Jan Dec and MEG AWB thereafter, assumes the last reported quarter. 2. Blending ratio assumed to be 0% (assumes the use of a DRU which eliminates need for diluent blending at a cost of $2.00/bbl included in dilbit transportation). 3. Assumes blending ratio of 17%. Neat bitumen pricing at US$4.00/bbl discount to Maya / Resid at USGC. Diluent haul back margin assumes Mt. Belvieu Natural Gasoline density of 664 kg/m3 (price calculated using CAPP s EQ), and diluent is backhauled only when profitable to do so utilizing all available rail capacity (~13% greater than bitumen/blend volume). Assumes transportation costs to Hardisty of $3.50/bbl and to USGC of ~$24/bbl 10

11 Rail Car Production The Future is Heavy Tank Car Deliveries* New tank cars in service 2012 vs. 2015* Actual 2011 Actual 2012 Projected 2013 Projected Light Heavy 2015 In the third quarter of 2012 alone, ~4,500 tank cars were delivered Light Heavy *CN Estimate 11

12 12 CN directly overlays the major heavy crude producing regions (Peace River, Athabasca, Cold Lake) Evolving from simple truck to rail manifest service to pipeline connected tank to rail unit train service PEACE RIVER Roma Sexsmith Mitsue Whitecourt High Level ATHABASCA Bruderheim East Edmonton Mannville Islay Lloydminster Wainwright Lashburn Unity Kindersley Lynton Cheecham COLD LAKE Operating Distribution Centers Under Development Future Development CN s Unique Franchise of Alberta Heavy Crude

13 Tracy Montreal Saint John Limoilou Saint-Romuald Dartmouth Direct Access to Eastern Canada Consumers and Tidewater Physical access to all Eastern Canada refineries; Sarnia ON, Nanticoke ON, Saint John NB, Saint-Romuald PQ Sarnia Woodhaven Toledo Chicago Detroit Nanticoke Physical access to seaway distribution terminals; Tracy, Quebec City Tidewater access to PADD I, PADD III, Europe and India Wood River CN served crude destination site Offline crude destination site 13

14 Jackson Direct Access to Gulf Coast PADD III Consumers Genesis (Baton Rouge) LBC Sunshine (St. Gabriel) Genesis (Natchez) Crosstex (Geismar) Valero (Norco) IMTT (St.Rose) Stone Oil (Manchac) ARC (Mobile) Single-line high-velocity turnaround service from Alberta / SK oilfields to PADD III refineries. Capacity available right away. Access refineries directly from Baton Rouge to New Orleans corridor Access refineries by barge / pipeline up to Houston ship channel via CN-served tidewater distribution terminals Lynton, AB to Natchez, MS 2,800 rail miles 14

15 Fort McMurray (Cheecham) Kitimat Edmonton CN condensate hubs Peak of 50,000 barrels per day Currently 30,000 barrels per day Condensate Backhaul CN Rail is an element of the condensate supply strategy 15

16 16 In Summary The Rail Advantage Rail provides market optionality Connectivity to Brent markets on 3 coasts Rail economics for heavy crudes are not spread dependant Rail car and facility constrains are being addressed. Rapid expansion of unit train capacity