Third quarter 2015 results October 29, 2015 Conference call notes

Transcription

1 Third quarter 2015 results October 29, 2015 Conference call notes Kam Sandhar Director, Investor Relations Thank you operator and welcome everyone to our third quarter 2015 results conference call. I would like to refer you to the advisories located at the end of today s news release. These advisories describe the forward looking information, non-gaap measures and oil and gas terms referenced today, and outline the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion. Additional information is available in our third quarter management discussion and analysis and most recent Annual Information Form or 40-F. The quarterly results have been presented in Canadian dollars and on a before royalties basis. Brian Ferguson, President & Chief Executive Officer, will begin with an update on our workforce and cost reduction initiatives and then turn the call over to Ivor Ruste, Executive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer, who will discuss our financial performance. Following that, Drew Zieglgansberger, Executive Vice-President, Oil Sands Manufacturing, will provide an update of our operating performance. Brian will then provide closing comments before we begin the Q&A portion of the call. Please go ahead Brian. Brian Ferguson President & Chief Executive Officer Thanks Kam. Good morning. Cenovus continues to deliver on the commitments that we have made to our shareholders. We are positioning the company to thrive in a protracted low commodity price environment. Company-wide, we are on track to achieve up to $400 million in combined operating, capital and G&A cost reductions this year. That s double the savings we originally targeted at the beginning of the year. We expect about 60 percent of these cost savings to be sustainable, even with oil prices recovering to the $60 to $65/bbl WTI range. We stated last quarter we are evaluating our compensation, benefits and time off-practices. We have completed this review and will be making changes to our practices starting in 2016 to make sure that they are aligned with those of our peers and with today s current market conditions. Part of our cost reduction effort has also focused on workforce. It is always difficult when we have to let good staff members go and we take these decisions very, very seriously. We have more closely aligned the size of our workforce with expected activity levels going forward. The previously announced workforce reductions of 300 to 400 staff has actually been increased to 700 staff. These reductions have now been completed. We anticipate these changes will result in an incremental $100 million of annualized cost savings beginning in Developing our oil sands assets remains the focus of our strategy; however we will adjust our growth plans according to market conditions. The Foster Creek phase G and Christina Lake optimization and 1

2 phase F expansions remain on track to add 50,000 barrels a day of net incremental productive oil capacity by the end of We will continue to be disciplined with our spending plans; allocating capital in the following priority: o Upstream and downstream sustaining capital o A sustainable dividend representing a targeted long-term payout ratio of 20 to 25 percent of expected after-tax cash flow o High return growth projects at Christina Lake, Foster Creek and Narrows Lake o And finally, targeted, high return conventional oil drilling opportunities I expect our 2016 capital spending budget to be within the range of $1.5 to $2.0 billion. A low end of the range would see us completing only the current expansion phases at Christina Lake and Foster Creek. The high end of that range would include growth capital related to the reactivation of Christina Lake phase G and Foster Creek phase H and will remain dependent on the progress with our cost reduction initiatives and fiscal and regulatory clarity. I am now going to turn the call over to Ivor Ruste, our Chief Financial Officer, to discuss our financial performance and balance sheet strength. Ivor Ruste Executive Vice-President & Chief Financial Officer Thanks Brian. We exited the third quarter with approximately $4.4 billion dollars of cash on our balance sheet. Our net debt metrics of September 30, 2015 were 13 percent net debt to capitalization, and 0.8 times net debt to adjusted EBITDA. With a depreciating Canadian dollar, no debt maturities until 2019 and favourable rates on our outstanding debt issues, we do not have plans to retire debt in the near term. Maintaining balance sheet strength is a top priority, along with continued investment in our core oil sands assets, as Brian discussed. In this challenging business environment, it is absolutely critical that we continue to maintain capital discipline. The Board has approved a fourth-quarter dividend of 16 cents per share, which is unchanged from the third quarter. While the DRIP remains in place, going forward, the company plans to purchase common shares required for the DRIP in the open market, eliminating dilution caused by the issuance of shares from Treasury. We reported cash flow per share of $0.53 in the quarter, which is slightly ahead of consensus estimates, partly driven by lower operating costs and G&A expenses. Impacted by weaker benchmark pricing for our heavy oil production and lower utilization rates at our refineries. The turnaround at Wood River is complete and we expect to see higher throughput rates shortly. With today s release, we have updated our 2015 guidance. Production levels continue to be strong, reflecting good operational performance. At the midpoint, our oil sands non-fueled unit operating cost guidance is down nearly 30 percent from our January 2015 guidance. Despite the production impact at Foster Creek of the forest fire in Q2 and the divestiture of our royalty and fee lands business, our production forecast remains unchanged for 2015 due to the strong results achieved to date. We cannot control commodity prices, but we are extremely focused on the cost side of our business. Reducing our cost structures will enhance our competitive position and the profitability of every barrel we produce. 2

3 I will now turn the call over to Drew to discuss our oil sands operations and our focus on lowering operating costs. Drew Zieglgansberger Executive Vice-President, Oil Sands Manufacturing Thanks Ivor and good morning everyone. Our teams have taken a pragmatic approach to increasing the efficiency of our operations, prioritizing our work which has led to reducing our cost structures. As you will have seen from our results this morning, we have made a tremendous amount of progress to date. I am also proud to report that our teams achieved this with our best safety performance to date. We continue to look for ways to extract the most value from our operations and I m confident that our teams will be even more successful and build on our progress. Our oil sands operating costs per barrel were down 23 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. These improvements include cost savings realized from working with our service providers, working with our supply chain on rate negotiations, productivity increases and continued optimization efforts across all the operating teams. Christina Lake continues to demonstrate top-tier performance, averaging a SOR of 1.7 in the quarter, and continuing to run above nameplate capacity. Our optimization project is now complete and it came in under budget. We expect the optimization project to ramp up over the next twelve month period, adding 22,000 barrels per day of gross productive capacity. This will take Christina Lake s gross production capacity to 160,000 barrels per day. Production volumes at Foster Creek were up 26 percent compared to the third quarter of 2014 as operations returned to normal following the forest fires we experienced during the end of the second quarter of this year. As expected, the flush production associated with the restart has begun to taper off and we anticipate fourth quarter production volumes to be within our guidance of 66,000 to 68,000 barrels per day net. Looking ahead, our operating teams continue to foster a culture focused on returns and value, rather than one solely focused on achieving growth. We will continue to evolve our operating practices to ensure our business remains competitive, regardless of the commodity prices. I will now pass the call back to Brian for some closing comments. Brian Ferguson President & Chief Executive Officer Thanks Drew. Cenovus has the strongest balance sheet of any company that I have worked at over the last 35 years. We are well positioned to thrive in this challenging commodity price environment. We have tested our financial resilience at current commodity prices through 2017 and I am confident we have the financial capacity to execute our three year business plan. We re targeting $400 million in cost savings for 2015 with another $100 million in anticipated savings related to the workforce reductions for Foster Creek and Christina Lake remain our top capital priorities. We will provide more details about our future plans with our 2016 budget announcement in December. 3

4 ADVISORY FINANCIAL INFORMATION Basis of Presentation Cenovus reports financial results in Canadian dollars and presents production volumes on a net to Cenovus before royalties basis, unless otherwise stated. Cenovus prepares its financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). Non-GAAP Measures This quarterly report contains references to non-gaap measures as follows: Operating cash flow is defined as revenues, less purchased product, transportation and blending, operating expenses, production and mineral taxes plus realized gains, less realized losses on risk management activities and is used to provide a consistent measure of the cash generating performance of the company s assets for comparability of Cenovus s underlying financial performance between periods. Items within the Corporate and Eliminations segment are excluded from the calculation of operating cash flow. Cash flow is defined as cash from operating activities excluding net change in other assets and liabilities and net change in non-cash working capital, both of which are defined on the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows in Cenovus s interim and annual Consolidated Financial Statements. Cash flow is a measure commonly used in the oil and gas industry to assist in measuring a company's ability to finance its capital programs and meet its financial obligations. Free cash flow is defined as cash flow less capital investment. Operating earnings is used to provide a consistent measure of the comparability of the company s underlying financial performance between periods by removing non-operating items. Operating earnings is defined as earnings before income tax excluding gain (loss) on discontinuance, gain on bargain purchase, unrealized risk management gains (losses) on derivative instruments, unrealized foreign exchange gains (losses) on translation of U.S. dollar denominated notes issued from Canada, foreign exchange gains (losses) on settlement of intercompany transactions, gains (losses) on divestiture of assets, less income taxes on operating earnings (loss) before tax, excluding the effect of changes in statutory income tax rates and the recognition of an increase in U.S. tax basis. Debt to capitalization, net debt to capitalization, debt to adjusted EBITDA and net debt to adjusted EBITDA are ratios that management uses to steward the company s overall debt position as measures of the company s overall financial strength. Debt is defined as short-term borrowings and long-term debt, including the current portion. Net debt is defined as debt net of cash and cash equivalents. Capitalization is defined as debt plus shareholders equity. Net debt to capitalization is defined as net debt divided by net debt plus shareholders' equity. Adjusted EBITDA is defined as earnings before finance costs, interest income, income tax expense, depreciation, depletion and amortization, goodwill and asset impairments, unrealized gains or losses on risk management, foreign exchange gains or losses, gains or losses on divestiture of assets and other income and loss, calculated on a trailing 12-month basis. These measures do not have a standardized meaning as prescribed by International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and therefore are considered non-gaap measures. These measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. These measures have been described and presented in this quarterly report in order to provide shareholders and potential investors with additional information regarding Cenovus s liquidity and its ability to generate funds to finance its operations. This information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information, refer to Cenovus s third quarter 2015 Management s Discussion & Analysis (MD&A) available at cenovus.com. OIL AND GAS INFORMATION Netbacks reported in this quarterly report are calculated as set out in the Annual Information Form (AIF). Heavy oil prices and transportation and blending costs exclude the costs of purchased condensate, which is blended with heavy oil. For the third quarter of 2015, the cost of condensate on a per barrel of unblended crude oil basis was as follows: Christina Lake - $26.42 and Foster Creek - $

5 FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION This document contains certain forward-looking statements and other information (collectively forward-looking information ) about Cenovus s current expectations, estimates and projections, made in light of the company s experience and perception of historical trends. Forward-looking information in this document is identified by words such as anticipate, believe, expect, plan, forecast or F, target, projected, future, guidance, could, should, focus, position, on track, proposed, schedule, potential, capacity, may, strategy, opportunities, "priority", outlook or similar expressions and includes suggestions of future outcomes, including statements about: the strength of the company's position under various potential conditions to fund its planned capital programs and current dividend level; potential resumption of investment in certain projects; adequacy of the company's liquidity to manage through the current low-price environment; growth strategy and related schedules, including priorities and focus; projections contained in the company s updated 2015 guidance; forecast operating and financial results; planned capital expenditures, capital investment priorities and expected conditions for future capital investments; project capacities; expected future production, including the timing, stability or growth thereof; improving cost structures, including cost reduction targets, and the expected timing, sustainability and potential impacts of anticipated cost savings; the expected timing and potential impacts of the company s transition to a new functional model; acquisition and disposition strategy; forecast natural gas use at operations; expected SOR; broadening market access and potential impacts thereof, including with respect to shareholder returns; expected increase in production capacity through optimization activity and expansion projects; dividend plans and dividend strategy, including with respect to the dividend reinvestment plan; forecasted commodity prices; targeted future debt to capitalization ratio and debt to adjusted EBITDA; and projected shareholder value. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information, as the company s actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Developing forward-looking information involves reliance on a number of assumptions and consideration of certain risks and uncertainties, some of which are specific to Cenovus and others that apply to the industry generally. The factors or assumptions on which the forward-looking information is based include: assumptions disclosed in Cenovus's current guidance, available at cenovus.com; the company's projected capital investment levels, the flexibility of the company's capital spending plans and the associated source of funding; estimates of quantities of oil, bitumen, natural gas and liquids from properties and other sources not currently classified as proved; the company's ability to obtain necessary regulatory and partner approvals; the successful and timely implementation of capital projects or stages thereof; the company's ability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet its current and future obligations; and other risks and uncertainties described from time to time in the filings we make with securities regulatory authorities guidance assumes: an average diluted number of shares outstanding of approximately 819 million and 833 million for 2015 and the fourth quarter of 2015, respectively; Brent of US$54.75/bbl; WTI of US$49.70/bbl; WCS of US$36.30/bbl; NYMEX of US$2.75/MMBtu; AECO of $2.65/GJ; Chicago crack spread of US$18.10/bbl; and an exchange rate of $0.78 US$/C$. The risk factors and uncertainties that could cause Cenovus's actual results to differ materially include: volatility of and assumptions regarding oil and natural gas prices; the effectiveness of the company's risk management program, including the impact of derivative financial instruments, the success of the company's hedging strategies and the sufficiency of its liquidity position; the accuracy of cost estimates; fluctuations in commodity prices, currency and interest rates; fluctuations in product supply and demand; market competition, including from alternative energy sources; risks inherent in Cenovus's marketing operations, including credit risks; risks inherent to operation of the company's crude-by-rail terminal, including health, safety and environmental risks; maintaining desirable ratios of debt to adjusted EBITDA, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, debt to capitalization and net debt to capitalization; ability to access various sources of debt and equity capital, generally, and on terms acceptable to Cenovus; changes in credit ratings applicable to Cenovus or any of its securities; changes to Cenovus's dividend plans or strategy, including the dividend reinvestment plan; accuracy of Cenovus's reserves, resources and future production estimates; ability to replace and expand oil and gas reserves; ability to maintain the company's relationships with its partners and to successfully manage and operate its integrated heavy oil business; reliability of the company's assets; potential disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developing new products and manufacturing processes; refining and marketing margins; potential failure of new products to achieve acceptance in the market; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing or modifying manufacturing or refining facilities; unexpected difficulties in producing, transporting or refining of crude oil into petroleum and chemical products; risks associated with technology and its application to Cenovus's business; the 5

6 timing and the costs of well and pipeline construction; the company's ability to secure adequate product transportation, including sufficient crude-by-rail or other alternate transportation; changes in the regulatory framework in any of the locations in which Cenovus operates, including changes to the regulatory approval process and land-use designations, royalty, tax, environmental, greenhouse gas, carbon and other laws or regulations, or changes to the interpretation of such laws and regulations, as adopted or proposed, the impact thereof and the costs associated with compliance; the expected impact and timing of various accounting pronouncements, rule changes and standards on Cenovus's business, its financial results and its consolidated financial statements; changes in the general economic, market and business conditions; the political and economic conditions in the countries in which Cenovus operates; the occurrence of unexpected events such as war, terrorist threats and the instability resulting therefrom; and risks associated with existing and potential future lawsuits and regulatory actions against Cenovus. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists are not exhaustive and are made as at the date hereof. For a full discussion of Cenovus's material risk factors, see Risk Factors in our AIF or Form 40-F for the year ended December 31, 2014 and Risk Management in our current and annual Management s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A), available on SEDAR at sedar.com, EDGAR at sec.gov and on the company's website at cenovus.com. TM denotes a trademark of Cenovus Energy Inc. 6