North American Production: Upheaval in Manufacturing and the Landscape by Tracy Handler North American Production Analyst

Transcription

1 North American Production: Upheaval in Manufacturing and the Landscape by 215 Tracy Handler North American Production Analyst

2 Emerging from the Crisis What does the North American production landscape look like in 215? Where are the gains and losses? Will capacity become a constraint in North America by 215? What segments see the most growth? Which manufacturers are prepared to weather the storm?

3 North American Calendar Year Light Vehicle Production (Units in millions) Production does not approach trend level of until : 15.3M units 28: 12.58M units 29: 8.61M units 21: 1.27M units % 55% 5% 45% 4% VOLUME / UNITS - L % CAR (R-Scale)

4 Domestic and Transplant Production: Volume and Share (Units in millions) % 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% DETROIT 3 ASIAN BIG 3 OTHER ASIAN EUROPEAN DOMESTIC BIG 3 SHARE TRANSPLANT SHARE The share of Detroit 3 production continues its decade-long slide until it stabilizes at 51% It could fall further if Chrysler and GM market share continue to drop Growth is seen in the Asian Big 3 and Hyundai

5 Where does North American Production Go from Here? Production in 29 is half what it was in 2 Growth will be slow: Will level off by 215 Fifteen million units will be a really good year As break-even points have decreased, profit will be seen sooner The split between cars and trucks will stabilize at 51% cars as the manufacturers meet fuel economy regulations

6 Big 6 Production Trends (Units in millions) Ford production matches GM in 29 and beyond. Chrysler drops to 5th place in North America By 215 there are only 2 million units separating the Big 6 North American manufacturers CHRYSLER LLC FORD GM HONDA NISSAN TOYOTA

7 North American Straight-time Capacity Based on 2, 8-hour shifts per day, 235 work-days per year Long-term straight-time utilization shows industry should be done downsizing by Roughly 85 assembly sites (Units in millions) Roughly 67 assembly sites % 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Straight Time Capacity Utilization (R-Scale)

8 North American Straight-time Capacity Car vs. Light Truck A 3% cut in truck capacity will (Units in millions) leave the industry with over 5% car capacity by CAR TRUCK % CAR (R-Scale) 55% 53% 5% 48% 45% 43% 4%

9 Adjusted North American Straight-time Capacity Includes additional capacity from plants that typically have used a third shift or crew Long-term adjusted capacity utilization outlook does not necessarily portend new greenfield sites for existing manufacturers beyond what has been announced (Units in millions) Roughly 85 assembly sites Roughly 67 2 assembly sites % 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Adjusted Capacity Utilization (R-Scale)

10 Assembly Plant Changes Between 25 and 215 eleven plants will open in North America They are chiefly small car and CUV plants Predominantly transplants Southeastern United States is the prime beneficiary of these plants Between 25 and 215, 31 assembly plants will close They are predominantly truck, SUV, and large car plants Most of these losses are in the mid-west and east coast

11 Production Volume by Segment for Cars Subcompacts will grow from 1% to 5.5% of the market (Units in millions) 3.5 Upper Mid and Large Cars see losses in the next five years while Subcompacts and Lower Mid grow SUBCOMPACT COMPACT LOWER MID UPPER MID AND LARGE MID SPECIALTY

12 Production Volume by Segment for Light Trucks 4 (Units in millions) The CUV segment is the only light truck to see growth between 2 and STW CUV SUV VAN PICKUP

13 Production Volume by Segment for Cross Utility Vehicles (Units in thousands) All segments of CUV see growth, but the entry CUV segment will have volume over 1.4 million units by 215 increasing its market share from under 1% to 9.5% ENTRY CUV MID CUV LARGE CUV

14 Platform Leaders: 25 Top 15 platforms make up 55% of volume Top 15 Platforms by Volume in 25 Manufacturer Platform Main Vehicle Types Lead Vehicles Volume Percentage GM GMT8 Fullsize Pickup, SUV Silverado, Sierra, Tahoe HONDA CYR Midsize Car, CUV, Van Pickup Accord, Pilot, Odyssey TOYOTA CAMRY (3N) Midsize Car, CUV, Van Camry, Sienna FORD T1 Fullsize Pickup, SUV F-Series, Expedition CHRYSLER NS/RS/RT Mid Van Caravan, Town & Country TOYOTA COROLLA (33N) Compact Car Corolla, Vibe GM DELTA Compact, STW Cobalt, HHR CHRYSLER DR/DE Fullsize Pickup Ram NISSAN FFL Midsize Car Altima, Maxima GM W3 Midsize Car Impala, Grand Prix GM GMT36/37 Midsize SUV Trailblazer, Envoy HONDA CX Compact Car, Entry CUV Civic, CR-V FORD P131 Fullsize Pickup Super-Duty GM EPSILON Midsize Car Malibu, G CHRYSLER LX Large Car 3, Charger, Challenger

15 Top-15 Platforms: 215 Top-15 platforms make up 66% of the total North American production volume Top 15 Platforms by Volume in 25 Manufacturer Platform Main Vehicle Types Lead Vehicles Volume Percentage TOYOTA MC Midsize Car, CUV, Van Camry, Sienna, RAV HONDA CYR Midsize Car, CUV, Van Pickup Accord, Pilot, Odyssey GM K2XX Fullsize Pickup, SUV Silverado, Sierra, Suburban FORD T1 Fullsize Pickup, SUV F-Series, Expedition, Super-Duty FORD C2 Compact Car, Entry CUV Focus, C-Max, Escape HONDA CX Compact Car, Entry CUV Civic, CR-V FORD CD4 Midsize Car, CUV Fusion, Edge GM EPSILON Midsize Car Malibu, Impala, LaCrosse HYUNDAI Y4 Compact Car, Entry CUV Sonata, Elantra TOYOTA COROLLA Compact Car Corolla GM DELTA Compact, STW Cobalt, Orlando, Volt CHRYSLER NS/RS/RT Mid Van Caravan, Town & Country VW PQ37 (A7) Compact Car Super-Duty NISSAN D Midsize Car Altima, Maxima CHRYSLER DR/DE Fullsize Pickup Ram

16 Platform Changes Of the Top-15 platforms in 25, 5 accounting for 22% of production were body-on-frame truck architectures in 215, there will be 3 in the Top-15 accounting for 15% of production In 25, 1 of the Top-15 platforms belonged to the domestic Big 3 in 215, 8 will belong to the Big 3 In 215, Hyundai and Volkswagen will each have an entry in the Top-15 none in 25 In 25, 4 of the Top-15 were dual car/truck platforms (16.5% of production) in 215, 7 of the top platforms will be the basis for cars and trucks, and equal 37% of production

17 GM North American Production (Units in millions) As GM closes plants and improves its utilization rates they can approach profitability PRODUCTION VOLUME STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

18 Ford North American Production (Units in millions) Ford should return to profitability by 211 with strong capacity utilization rates PRODUCTION VOLUME STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

19 Chrysler North American Production (Units in millions) Even with Fiat production at Chrysler plants, Chrysler has excess capacity PRODUCTION VOLUME STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

20 Toyota North American Production Blue Springs opens in 212, (Units in millions) Central Mexico Nummi closes opens in 213 in PRODUCTION VOLUME STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

21 Honda North American Production (Units in millions) Honda is poised for additional production growth in PRODUCTION VOLUME STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

22 Nissan North American Production (Units in millions) What products should Nissan add to take advantage of excess capacity? PRODUCTION VOLUME STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

23 Hyunda/Kia North American Production Units in Thousands Job one for new plant in Georgia late HYUNDAI PLANT KIA PLANT STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

24 BMW North American Production 3 Units in Thousands BMW adds X PRODUCTION VOLUME STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

25 Mercedes North American Production 2 Units in Thousands PRODUCTION VOLUME STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

26 Volkswagen North American Production 7 6 Units in Thousands New plant in Tennessee opens. What new products will fill that capacity PRODUCTION VOLUME STRAIGHT TIME CAPACITY

27 Other OEM North American Production 16 Units in Thousands SUBARU MITSUBISHI SUZUKI

28 Conclusions The key word for North American production in 215 is Smaller A smaller production share for the Domestic 3 The smaller segment sizes, whether cars or CUVs will be emphasized Capacity will be smaller as plants close and no new plants are needed Production will be smaller than the peak of 2, but will stabilize at 15 million units

29 Implications In order to take advantage of the smaller North American production landscape suppliers must Work with the transplants Focus on small cars and CUV s Concentrate on the top platforms Ride out the storm until 213 when production capacity is right-sized Don t expect any new assembly plants soon

30 Thank You! Tracy Handler North American Production Analyst