SPAIN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
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1 SPAIN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CBRE Spain 26 th June, 2014 CB Richard Ellis Page 1 CLIENT LOGO
2 SPAIN REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW 26 th June, 2014
3 The Leading Company Around the World The company works for 80% of the businesses in the prestigious Fortune 500 list. CBRE has been awarded major business awards worldwide for its experience, leadership, innovation and project & professional team management. 449 OFFICES IN 65 COUNTRIES AMÉRICA Turnover: Offices: Countries: Employees: Total Value of Transactions: For Sale or Purchase (value of transaction): Rents (value of transaction): Property Management: Valuations and Advising: p. 3 EMEA $7,184 million , ,200 million $140,100 million $83,100 million million m² 132,300 transactions ASIA (*) including data from partner companies 44,000 EMPLOYEES
4 Some of our international clients p. 4
5 The total tornover in 2013 p. 5
6 CBRE in SPAIN 7 OFFICES CBRE SPAIN 450 EMPLOYEES MADRID ZARAGOZA VALENCIA BARCELONA PALMA DE MALLORCA Turnover: Offices: Employees: Total Value of Transactions: For Sale or Purchase (value of transaction): Rents (value of transaction): Property Management: Valuations and Advising: 60 million millions 412 millions 274 millions 3 millions m² 831 transactions MARBELLA CASABLANCA (MARRUECOS) p. 6
7 CBRE services in SPAIN p. 7
8 Some of our national clients p. 8
9 1 MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT SPAIN AS A WHOLE Visuel p. 9
10 Macroeconomic Data Spain GDP 4% 2% 1.1% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 0% 0.4% -2% -1.3% -1.6% -4% Source: Oxford Economics & CBRE p. 10 % annual change
11 Macroeconomic Data Spain Employment 22,0 20,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10, Source: Oxford Economics & CBRE p. 11
12 Macroeconomic Data Spain Current Balance 2% 0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% -2% -1.4% -4% -3.5% -6% -8% -10% % GDP Source: Oxford Economics & CBRE p. 12
13 Macroeconomic Data Spain Government Budget 3% 0% -3% -3.2% -1.8% -1.3% -2.2% -6% -6.5% -5.6% -4.5% -9% -12% -10.6% % GDP Source: Oxford Economics & CBRE p. 13
14 The Economist The worst may be over p. 14
15 Financial Times Spain back on growth path after two years! p. 15
16 The New York Times Optimism, and Caution, as Spain Attracts Investment p. 16
17 Fitch Ratings Fitch Revises Spain's Outlook to Stable; Affirms at 'BBB' p. 17
18 Standar & Poors Ratings Estándar & Poors Revises Spain's Outlook to Stable; Affirms at 'BBB' p. 18
19 2 OFFICE MARKET Visuel p. 19
20 Madrid office market CBRE Spain
21 Madrid office zones Source: CBRE p. 21
22 Madrid: KPI Q Stock (sqm) 12,190,400 12,304,276 12,419,341 12,449,341 New Supply (sqm) *¹ 128, , ,065 30,000 Vacancy rate 13.7% 16.32% 17.19% 17.15% Take-up (sqm) 322, , ,262 98,388 Rents ( /sqm/month) *¹completions Source: CBRE p. 22
23 Madrid: KPI Q1 Zone Stock (sqm) Take-up (sqm) Availability (% stock) New Supply* (sqm) Max. Rent ( / sqm/month) Central Business District Secondary Centre A-1 Motorway A-2 Motorway A-6 Motorway Periphery 3,515,543 44, % 28, ,499,000 4, % 11, ,385,614 22, % ,367,000 20, % 42, ,137,000 6, % , % Madrid Total 12,449,341 98, % 81, *New supply in development Source: CBRE p. 23
24 Take Up and Vacancy Rate 400 Take-up, Thousand sqm Vacancy rate, % stock 20% % % 14% % % 150 8% 100 6% 4% 50 2% 0 0% Source: CBRE p. 24
25 Take up sqm Take-up in Q1 Take-up (% stock in sub-market) Take up % stock in sub-market 1,4% ,2% 1,0% ,8% 0,6% ,4% 0,2% 0 CBD SC A-1 A-2 A-6 Periphery 0,0% Source: CBRE p. 25
26 Availability Available space Vacancy rate Available space, sqm Availability rate 60% % % % 21,2% 22,3% ,5% 13,2% 20% ,6% 29,0% 10% 0 CBD SC A-1 A-2 A-6 Periphery 0% Source: CBRE p. 26
27 Rent ( /sqm/month) Deals Letting Deals 35 H H Q Source: CBRE p. 27 Sqm
28 Rent ( /sqm/month) Deals Letting Deals 35 H H Q Sqm Source: CBRE p. 28
29 Take up Transactions by activity Financial Sector Business Services Independent Professionals Consumption & Leisure Industrial and Energy Information & Technology Other Public Sector Unknown Financial Sector Business Services Independent Professionals Consumption & Leisure Industrial and Energy Information & Technology Other Public Sector Unknown Q Financial Sector Business Services Independent Professionals Consumption & Leisure Industrial and Energy Information & Technology Other Public Sector Unknown Source: CBRE p. 29
30 Prime Rent Rental evolution 45 /sqm/month Yoy variation 60% 40 50% 35 40% 30% 30 20% 25 10% 20 0% 15-10% 10-20% -30% 5-40% 0-50% Source: CBRE p. 30
31 Prime Rents in Madrid 45 A1 A2 A6 CBD SC P Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: CBRE p. 31
32 Madrid New Supply Main projects description for A-1 Torre Titania - Raim. Fern. Villaverde 65 - Ownership: El Corte Inglés sq m to let. M-50 - Completion expected for 2013 year end A-6 M-30 M-40 R-1 M-50 A-2 New HQ of BBVA - Avenida de Burgos sq m for self use. - To be delivered in 2 phases. First one in the 2013 year end, and the rest in M-40 MADRID R-3 Hernani - Hernani, 59 - Ownership: Consorcio sq m to let. - Whole refurbishing that could A-5 be completed in the H Génova 17 - Génova 17 - Ownership: HNA Source: CBRE Spain R-5 A-42 R-4 p. 32 A-4 M-45 M-50 A-3 MBC Building - Avenida América, 81 - Ownership: Torre Rioja sq m to let. - Whole refurbishing that could be completed in the H sq m to let. - Whole refurbishing that could be completed in the H
33 EMEA Prime Office Rent Cycle: Recovery Progress As of Q Source: CBRE p. 33
34 3 INVESTMENT MARKET Visuel p. 34
35 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q CRE Investment Volumes in CEE vs. Southern European Economies In nominal figures Million CEE PIIGs Source: CBRE, & Property Data & KTI p. 35
36 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q CRE Investment Volumes in Southern Europe Spain Million Italy Spain Portugal 4Q average 0 Source: CBRE, & Property Data & KTI p. 36
37 Commercial Real Estate Finance Market Conditions in Europe Key Lending Terms*: Top Quality Real Estate and Tenant, Q Market Max Loan** Max LTV Margin*** Germany 200 m 75% 150 bps UK 150m 70% 170 bps Ireland 80m 70% 300 bps Netherlands 120m 70% 200 bps Russia 150m 70% 600 bps Spain 50m 60% 400 bps Market Trend / * New 5-year loan based on the maximum underwriting ability of a single lender. ** Max ticket size for a single lender. *** Margin over EURIBOR/LIBOR swap. Source: CBRE, & Property Data & KTI p. 37
38 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Offices - Capital Values /sqm Barcelona Madrid Europe Source: CBRE p. 38 Europe: France, Germany, Italy, Nederlands, Spain, UK (average)
39 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Offices in Madrid Capital Values /sqm Current prices Prices of 1995 Constant prices - average Source: CBRE p. 39
40 Spain: Historical CRE Turnover Investor demand is now reflected in investment volumes Millions Retail Offices Industrial & Logistics Other Source: CBRE Spain p. 40
41 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Madrid: Prime yields evolution 11 Industrial Offices High Street Shopping Centres Source: CBRE Spain p. 41
42 Spain: CROSS-EUROPEAN CRE Investment 3,764 out of 4,934 million came from over seas in 2013 Source: CBRE Spain & Bloomberg p. 42
43 Spain: CROSS-EUROPEAN CRE Investment Only 24% came from other European countries Norway 129 million Russia 5 million UK 328 million France 496 million Germany 205 million Italy 31 million Switzerland 43 million Source: CBRE Spain & Bloomberg p. 43
44 Q vs Q Total Investment volume; Spain The share per sectors (% of total) Millions Source: CBRE Spain 424 MM Q Q p MM Offices Retail Industrial Others
45 Total Investment volume; Spain The share per sectors (% of total) up to 30th May Millions 2,446 MM Offices Retail Industrial Others 0 Source: CBRE Spain 30th May 2014 p. 45
46 DISCLAIMER Global Research and Consulting This presentation was prepared by the CBRE Spain Research Team which forms part of CBRE Global Research and Consulting a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe. Disclaimer CBRE Spain confirms that information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed Visuel to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we have not verified them and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about them. It is your responsibility to confirm independently their accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. p. 46
47 THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME CBRE Page th June, 2014
48 For any extra information, please contact with: Patricio Palomar Murillo National Director Research & Ivestment Strategy CBRE Real Estate SPAIN If you woul like to have info about other sectors or sub-markets, please click below: Follow us in: This presentation is published for general information only. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no legal responsibility can be accepted by CB Richard Ellis Research or CBRE for any loss or damage resultant from the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of CB Richard Ellis in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is allowed with proper reference to CB Richard Ellis Research. P Please consider the enviroment before printing this document
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