EUROPEAN RETAIL TEN KEY DRIVERS FOR November Market Summary 2 Key Drivers 8 Data 11 Contact Information

Transcription

1 EUROPEAN RETAIL TEN KEY DRIVERS FOR 2011 November Market Summary 2 Key Drivers 8 Data 11 Contact Information Cushman & Wakefield LLP European Headquarters 43/45 Portman Square London, UK W1A 3BG Opinions on the outlook for retail trading and retail property in Europe in 2011 are highly divergent which is unsurprising given the range of disparate factors set to impact: some positively, some negatively. Ten of the most important factors are summarised in this report and our ranking of their relative impact is as follows: 1. Supply: Supply shortages of prime space, which are already beginning to emerge, will be the key driver shaping the property market in GDP: Whilst the key drivers of economic recovery are trade and investment orientated, the avoidance of a double dip will be the second most important driver for retailing in However, the polarisation of Europe is possibly set to possibly increase and will be a key theme for retailers and investors to watch. 3. Affordability: Occupancy costs are more affordable following the rental falls of 2008/9, but cost pressures are emerging in other areas of the retail chain such as raw materials and transport and this may hinder retailers. 4. Employment: The resilience of labour markets will remain fundamental to the outlook for retail in Unemployment rates have stabilised in most countries, but next year may yet see more job losses if the cuts in public sector jobs outweigh the ability of the private sector to pick up the slack. 5. The Lending Market: With interest rates expected to stay lower for longer, this should help businesses and consumers in 2011 helping to ease some of the pain from government spending cuts. However, the most significant trend expected in 2011 is for a steadily increased appetite to lend by banks and to borrow by businesses and, possibly, consumers. 6. Retail Sales: Uneven recovery to continue as with GDP, with sales of large ticket items expected to pick up more slowly. Value retailers will do well as consumers continue to feel squeezed by higher taxes, lower wages and uncertain employment prospects in some cases. 7. Austerity Measures: Will hold back growth and could delay recovery in some areas. The need to act is however much less in some markets e.g. the Nordics and has been factored in to forecasts by businesses, economists and many consumers. Nevertheless, areas where tax increases are dominant rather than spending cuts may experience the greatest impact in Regulation: Perhaps the elephant in the room. Regulatory changes will have an increasing impact in 2011, particularly as retailers try to adjust to the lease accounting changes scheduled for 2012 or Demand: Retailer demand will remain cautious and selective, but with less development and fewer new options, there will be stronger competition for the best space. 10. Demographics: Population change is set to be a critical driver of European retail and, with experts predicting a peaking in Europe s working population in 2011, change will come sooner than some expect. However, the immediate impact on retailing will still be more subtle and more to do with future business planning than short term trading patterns. BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

2 Market Summary (continued) Most of these factors are in some way essential to the recovery, but in some cases this is more in creating the overall environment in which recovery can take hold, rather than driving the recovery itself. In other words, the right fabric of inter-woven factors of lending conditions, consumer and business confidence is vital. In our opinion, however, the recovery of real estate activity and performance is likely to be driven by supply: which is polarised between prime and secondary and set to become more so. Divergence or polarisation is in fact the second key theme we would highlight and, faced with a patchy global economic recovery, there will be major differences in performance between retail markets in 2011, with growth accelerating in some whilst others continue to see more sluggish trading conditions. However, even in locations where a stronger consumer market recovery does take shape, property supply will still be a key factor influencing growth and investor and retailer intentions. Shopping centre completions are expected to remain at low levels for at least 1-2 years, which will support rents for the better schemes, as retailers see their options diminish and are forced to consider existing stock. For this reason the prime market will be the main home of the recovery once it does kick in. Generally, the secondary market whether this is defined by size or quality will remain weak in 2011 and is expected to take significantly longer to recover. KEY DRIVERS Supply In our view, vacancy rates and supply - particularly shopping centre development - will be the most important drivers of retail property markets and performance in Indeed, in the absence of a more solid acceleration in economic growth, the retail recovery is expected to be supply-led in most markets. The years leading up to the credit crunch recorded steady growth in the amount of new shopping centre floorspace, leading to over-supply in some markets as demand fell away. However, the downturn also brought a sharp reduction in the amount of new space coming forward in Europe, where new completions have fallen by 30% as a result of restrictive credit conditions and weak demand. Whilst there remains an overhang of supply in some areas, there is already evidence that prime space is being quickly absorbed in many markets and 2011 may start to see a shortage of good quality supply - and hence a return of upward pressure on rents for the best space. Secondary locations meanwhile have se en some dramatic increases in supply during the recession as retailers have closed unprofitable stores to focus their efforts on prime high streets and shopping centres. Indeed, it might take years for some secondary locations to recover and, in many cases, a change of use may be required where retail is no longer viable. It is likely that local authorities will need to work closely with developers and investors to resolve some of these issues and come up with innovative solutions. In the short term, however, high vacancy rates are expected to persist in secondary locations and rents will remain weak. BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

3 Figure 1: European Shopping Centre Development Pipeline New Shopping Centre GLA Per Annum (sq.m) Total GLA (sq.m) Million (sq.m) Million (sq.m) < Source: Cushman & Wakefield Est GDP While the recovery remains sluggish and uneven, growth for Europe as a whole has accelerated more rapidly than many anticipated in However, the pace of growth is expected to ease in 2011 and considerable downside risks remain, with the banking sector still fragile, fiscal tightening getting underway and fears that the sovereign debt crisis may re-surface. Moreover, considerable diversity country by country will remain a key feature of the market. The general consensus is that Emerging Europe - led by stronger exports - is set to grow more quickly than advanced Europe, whose recovery may be held back by long standing structural constraints such as rigid labour markets, in addition to more recent issues such as the reduction in credit availability for businesses and consumers and the fall-off in global trade. In Western Europe, growth is expected to be strongest in core markets such as Germany and the Nordics and recent pessimism concerning the UK, while the PIIGS are more likely to turn in a weaker performance once more. Among the emerging markets, Turkey and Russia should continue to do well, followed by Slovakia and Poland. Figure 2: Changing Views on Economic Growth 2011 GDP Forecasts Made at Different Dates 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Western Europe Forecasts made in: 2011 Rate US Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Latin America Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Source: Consensus Economics Inc. and Cushman & Wakefield BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

4 Affordability Occupancy costs - clearly an increasingly sensitive issue for retailers during the recession - will remain high on the agenda in In theory, affordability has improved in many areas following some significant rental falls in the retail warehouse, shopping centre and some high street markets. Occupiers should therefore be well-placed to get back on the expansion trail. However, for those seeking flagship stores in major global cities, rents in general are equal to or higher than their prerecession levels given the continued demand for a limited supply of space. Particularly in the high street, rental falls have been much more limited for prime than secondary and hence even where space is more affordable, it may not be the space or locations that retailers want. Moreover, even where occupancy costs are lower, it is too simplistic to assume that this is a green light for expansionary retailers, especially given the cost pressures emerging elsewhere in the retail chain, such as in raw materials, labour and transport. In general, however, as the graph below shows, the gap which opened up between retail rents and sales has now all but closed. Figure 3: Indexed Growth in Rents, Sales & Labour Costs Index (Dec-04 = 100) Retail Sales (V alues) High Street Retail Rents (All Europe) Dec-04 Mar-05 Source: Eurostat and Cushman & Wakefield Employment Employee Compensation Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-0 8 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Greater flexibility in the labour market as well as special measures taken by many governments around Europe have meant that unemployment has not risen as expected. This has clearly supported the retail sector during the downturn and in some areas has staged an earlier than expected recovery. However, with the expectation of shrinking public sectors in most parts of Europe and the potential for job losses, employment growth will become increasingly reliant on the private sector - whose recovery remains hesitant and constrained for example by tight credit conditions. Moreover, even the fear of unemployment may have a negative impact on consumer confidence and therefore retail spending. The Lending Market Record low interest rates have kept the global economy from falling much more substantially during the recent downturn and are now creating very favourable conditions for some businesses and consumers. Whilst the consensus view is that interest rates will remain low for some time, their current level means that they can only really go in one direction and a very small number of countries (Sweden and Norway for example) have already begun to raise interest rates. However, for most countries, a rise in interest rates is not expected at least before the second half of next year and, even then, the expectation is that any rises will be modest and will maintain rates at relatively low historic levels. Such rates will clearly help to support retailer and consumer activity but clearly the supply of affordable credit for secured as well as unsecured borrowers is key rather than the rates set by the central banks and the indications are positive that at least in core Europe banks may be ready to expand lending to businesses and consumers. BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

5 Figure 4: EU Consumer Price Growth & Eurozone Interest Rates EU Consumer Price Grow th ECB Main Refinancing Rate 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Eurostat and European Central Bank Retail Sales Retailers will be closely monitoring how sales trends by value and volume react to the changing conditions of 2011 and will be ready to adjust their expansion plans as a result. So far, sales have made a modest recovery in most countries and in most product categories since the declines of 2008/9, although the sector still faces difficulties in a number of areas. Sales of personal accessories, clothing and footwear seem to have bounced back strongly, although there are concerns about the possible effect of more expensive raw materials such as cotton for example. Sales of large ticket items such as furniture, white goods and consumer electronics products fared less well in the recovery to-date as well as in the recession, however. The performance of these categories will be crucial to any recovery in the retail warehouse market, which was particularly adversely affected in many countries during the recession. The possible impact of recent or impending rises in VAT across Europe will also feature prominently in notably in terms of whether this is passed on to retailers, suppliers or absorbed by retailers themselves. As consumers come to terms with lower wage growth, higher taxes and in some areas the necessity of further de-leveraging, they will continue to seek out value which should give an advantage to retailers trading at the value end of the spectrum in both food and non-food markets. Figure 5: EU Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence Retail Sales Volumes Consumer Confidence Source: Eurostat Retail Sales Index (Dec 2004 = 100) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Consumer Confidence BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

6 Austerity Measures Following 2-3 years of fiscal expansion to combat the worst effects of the credit crunch and the recession, 2011 will bring with it austerity measures across most of Europe, as governments seek to reduce their budget deficits and put their finances on a more sustainable footing. Whilst there are concerns that too many countries engaging in fiscal consolidation simultaneously will have a short term adverse impact on the economy, on balance, this fiscal consolidation is not expected to push Europe back in to recession and will benefit the fiscal stability of the region. However, it is clear that the austerity measures taking effect in 2011 will have a marked impact, whether this is directly on jobs in the public sector, or a more indirect impact on spending and confidence and hence private sector employment. Businesses and consumers are likely to experience some pain and this will filter through to the retail sector through cost consciousness, reduced spending and increased competition for each Pound or Euro in consumers pockets. Figure 6: Government Budget Balances for 2011 Sweden Bulgaria Estonia Finland Malta Luxembourg Hungary Austria Germany Denmark Belgium Italy Netherlands Slovenia Slovakia Czech Republic Euro Area EU-27 Poland France Romania Cyprus Portugal Lithuania Spain Greece Latvia UK Ireland Source: European Commission Regulation New regulation and, perhaps more importantly, changes to regulation, can exert significant influence on retailers and the retail market. This may relate to any number of areas, including employment, finance, planning or everyday trading and are particularly relevant at the current time. Indeed, some of the most significant changes to lease accounting for many years are due to come in to force in 2012/2013 and the impact of these is likely to be felt increasingly from 2011, as retailers gear up for the changes. The key change to lease accounting is the replacement of the operating lease accounting model with a right-of-use model. In summary, occupiers will need to hold all lease liabilities on their balance sheets under the new rules. The economics of individual leasing transactions may change and the changes are likely to have a major impact on retailers key financial ratios. Indeed, in more extreme cases, the accounting changes may in fact turn a retailer s profit in to a loss. Therefore, even though the changes do not take effect until 2012/2013, retailers will need to start planning and making decisions which relate to leasing strategy if they have not already done so. BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

7 Demand During 2008 and 2009, retailer demand did not fall away completely, but rather became more cautious and selective against a background of increasing choice of space for occupiers. The result was a clear polarisation between prime and secondary locations, with the latter much more adversely affected by weaker retailer demand and consequent decline in rents, as retailers focused on closing unprofitable stores. For 2011, whilst much will depend on the strength and sustainability of the economic recovery, demand should pick up following two years of relative inactivity and as competition intensifies for a declining balance of available space. However, not all markets will see a strong rebound in demand, given the economic headwinds faced by some, in particular those where consumers remain under most pressure and where austerity measures mean a significant fiscal tightening is in prospect for 2011 and beyond. Having failed to make adequate returns on their investments in second tier towns/secondary locations, a number of international operators are now focused on opening fewer stores in core markets, instead preferring to build a presence in larger cities in new markets. This trend is likely to reinforce the already significant polarisation in demand between desirable and undesirable locations. Working Population The slow tick, tick, tick of the demographic time bomb is due to get louder in 2011, with predictions that Europe s working population will move in to reverse. Indeed, with little sign of an increase in the current low birth rates in most advanced economies and as the so-called baby boomers born in the immediate post-war period begin to retire, there are concerns that a falling labour market will lead to slower economic growth in the developed world. However, whilst 2011 may prove to be a tipping point for the medium to longer term, it is unlikely that the ageing population will have an immediate effect on the retail sector. Moreover, it is difficult to predict the extent to which other external factors will impact with many governments already raising retirement ages, many people choosing to work for longer and changes to immigration policy likely to mitigate some of the more negative forecasts of population declines. Regardless, over the medium term, with an ageing population giving rise to an ever more powerful grey pound, it is clear that both retailers and landlords will need to adapt their strategies to cater for this segment of the population - whether this be in advertising, product mix, tenant mix, format or accessibility issues. BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

8 DATA TABLE 1 MARKET DYNAMICS IN 2010 Retail Sales Volume to q3 Retail Sales Value to q3 Consumer Confidence Labour Markets Annual Growth Quarterly Growth Annual Growth Quarterly Growth Annual Growth (%) Quarterly Growth (%) Employment Growth Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic* Denmark Estonia n/a -5.2 Finland France Germany Greece* Hungary* Ireland n/a n/a Italy* Latvia n/a -2.8 Lithuania n/a -7.4 Netherlands* Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia n/a n/a 6.5 n/a Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey n/a n/a n/a n/a Ukraine 4.3 n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.2 UK Western Europe Eastern Europe % Source: Consensus Economics Inc, Oxford Economics and Cushman & Wakefield * Data only goes up to August 2010 Income Growth BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

9 TABLE 2 MARKET FORECASTS (October 2010) GDP % pa Consumer Spending % pa Inflation % pa Unemployment % pa Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine UK Western Europe Eastern Europe Source: Consensus Economics Inc, Oxford Economics and Cushman & Wakefield BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

10 TABLE 3 RETAIL MARKET VALUES Shops Shopping Centres Rental Growth (yr to Q3 10) Yield Levels (Q3 2010) Retail Warehouse Trend All Retail Shopping Centres Shop Units Retail Warehouse Bond Yields 10 yr Trend All Retail Austria Belgium Bulgaria n/a n/a 5.8 Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Luxembourg 0.0 n/a n/a n/a 5.75 n/a 2.7 Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia n/a Slovakia n/a Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey n/a Ukraine n/a n/a n/a UK Note: Yields are headline levels for the prime market in each country and are quoted on their local market basis. Those shown in red are calculated net, to include transfer costs of tax and legal fees. Rental growth reflects average value movements in a sample of locations across each country. Source: Cushman & Wakefield BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER

11 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD EUROPEAN RETAIL Cushman & Wakefield is the leading real estate services provider in the European retail sector. Our long established, market leading teams have been created specifically to cater for the demands of international clients. Enhanced by our dedicated cross border retail team, we offer the widest range of services from any retail advisory company plus true accountability and a clear understanding of our clients' needs. Retail Services include: Retail Leasing Shopping Centre Investment Development & Planning Advice Strategic Advice Lease Advisory/Rent Review Valuation Retail Asset Management Retail Investment Valuation Research & Consultancy Retail Logistics CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD EUROPEAN RESEARCH Research staff are located throughout the world with the EMEA service co-ordinated in London, the Americas in New York and Asia in Singapore. Research provides a strategic advisory and supporting role to clients and other departments within the firm with extensive and continuously updated information systems covering property, economic, corporate and social trends. Consultancy projects are undertaken on a local and international basis. We provide in-depth advice and analysis, producing detailed market appraisals on current and future trends for developers, investors and occupiers. We also advise on location and investment strategies and portfolio performance. Typical projects include: Location analysis, ranking & targeting for occupation/investment Future development activity and existing supply/competition Demand analysis by retail/industry sector Rental analysis, forecasts and investment and portfolio strategy Floorspace audits, tenant-mix assessment and catchment/expenditure analysis Retailer, occupier and consumer surveys Pedestrian flow analysis and local employment studies. To discuss your immediate needs please contact: John Strachan Head of Retail Services Cushman & Wakefield LLP 43/45 Portman Square London W1A 3BG Tel: + 44 (0) Mob: + 44 (0) john.strachan@eur.cushwake.com Mark Burlton Head of Cross Border Retail Cushman & Wakefield LLP 43/45 Portman Square London W1A 3BG Tel: + 44 (0) Mob: +44 (0) mark.burlton@eur.cushwake.com Darren Yates European Research Group Cushman & Wakefield LLP 43/45 Portman Square London W1A 3BG Tel: darren.yates@eur.cushwake.com For further information on this report or other Cushman & Wakefield Research material please visit our website (see below) or contact Michelle Mejia. michelle.mejia@eur.cushwake.com Should you not wish to receive information from Cushman & Wakefield or any related company, please unsubscribe@eur.cushwake.com with your details in the body of your as they appear on this letter and head it Unsubscribe. Cushman & Wakefield is known the world-over as an industry knowledge leader and through the delivery of timely, accurate, high-quality research reports on the leading trends, markets around the world and business issues of the day, we aim to assist our clients in making property decisions that meet their objectives and enhance their competitive position. In addition to producing regular reports such as global rankings and local quarterly updates available on a regular basis, Cushman & Wakefield also provides customised studies to meet specific information needs of owners, occupiers and investors. Cushman & Wakefield is the world's largest privatelyheld commercial real estate services firm. Founded in 1917, it has 230 offices in 60 countries and more than 13,000 employees. The firm represents a diverse customer base ranging from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies. It offers a complete range of services within five primary disciplines: Transaction Services, including tenant and landlord representation in office, industrial and retail real estate; Capital Markets, including property sales, investment management, investment banking, debt and equity financing; Client Solutions, including integrated real estate strategies for large corporations and property owners, Consulting Services, including business and real estate consulting; and Valuation & Advisory, including appraisals, highest and best use analysis, dispute resolution and litigation support, along with specialized expertise in various industry sectors. A recognized leader in global real estate research, the firm publishes a broad array of proprietary reports available on its online Knowledge Center at For more market intelligence and research reports visit the Knowledge Center at Cushman & Wakefield LLP All rights reserved This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. It does not purport to be a complete description of the markets or developments contained in this material. The information on which this report is based has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and we do not guarantee that the information is accurate or complete. BUSINESS BRIEFING NOVEMBER