Natural Gas - The Energy Opportunity

Transcription

1 Natural Gas - The Energy Opportunity Patti Piett, Director Storage &Transportation Marketing and Utilization

2 For Discussion Natural Gas Changing Landscape Marcellus/Utica Shale Game Changer Dawn Value and Benefits What is the Opportunity for Ontario? 2

3 Spectra Energy Diverse portfolio of assets Connecting the largest diverse markets with growing supply Natural Gas Transmission Pipe: 30,000+ Km Natural Gas Gathering Pipe: 112,000+ Km Distribution Pipe: 64,000+ Km Natural Gas Storage Capacity: 320+ PJ Union Gas Retail Customers: 1.4 million Gas storage facility Gas processing plant Propane terminal NGL storage Shale gas formations Crude storage Major oil pipeline terminal 3

4 Union Gas - A Spectra Energy Company Major Canadian natural gas storage, transmission and distribution company based in Ontario Over 100 years of experience and safe service to customers Dawn Storage facility largest underground storage facility in Canada Assets of $6.4 billion ~2,200 employees One of Canada's Top 100 Employers for five years in a row ( ) 4

5 Natural Gas Changing Landscape

6 North American Natural Gas Supply Flows traditional 6

7 North American Pipeline Flows Changes to 2025 New New 7

8 Marcellus/Utica Shale Game Changer

9 North American Shale Basins Map Source: EIA Marcellus/Utica shale basin dwarf the other North American basins 9

10 Shale Gas Revolution A drill bores into the ground ~ km below the water table A water and sand mixture forced down the hole at high pressure causing fractures Gas escapes through the fractures and travels up a pipe Source: Chemistryviews.org 10

11 Tcf North American Gas Shale Basins Gas production U.S. and Canadian Natural Gas Production Shale 15 Offshore Tight CBM 10 5 Conventional Onshore 2014 ICF International. All rights reserved Source: ICF GMM Q Shale production will make up over 80% of the overall natural gas production in North America by

12 North American Gas Shale Basins Gas production Source: ICF GMM Q ICF International. All rights reserved. Marcellus/Utica shale basin will make up over 50% of the overall shale production in North America by

13 North American Gas Shale Basins Rising Marcellus and Utica production Original Penn State forecast for 2020 was 4.5 Bcf/d Latest ICF forecast for 2020 is 26.5 Bcf/d Source: Various compiled by ICF 2014 ICF International. Marcellus/Utica production forecast increased 560% in 5 yrs.! 13 13

14 What is the Opportunity for Ontario?

15 How Can Ontario Benefit? Access to competitively priced energy Timeliness continue to support new pipelines to connect to new supplies Ease make it easy for U.S. producers to do business in Canada Incentives market liquidity correct price signals competitive pricing availability of infrastructure demand commitment The time is now! 15

16 Attracting New Supply in Ontario Growing supply to Dawn TCPL NIAGARA/ CHIPPAWA TENNESSEE NIAGARA EXPANSION NEXUS 1.6 PJ/d ANR EAST 0.4 PJ/d ETP Rover 1.4 PJ/d EMPIRE EXPANSION TCPL, Tennessee, Empire and National Fuel 1.0 PJ/d NEXUS ROVER NATIONAL FUEL NIAGARA ANR EAST 40% increase to current pipeline capacity serving Michigan/Dawn by

17 Largest Expansion in Union s History Incremental Capacity: 2015: 0.4 PJ/d 2016: 0.4 PJ/d 2017: ~ 0.6 PJ/d Total: 1.4 PJ/d Brantford-Kirkwall Pipeline (2015) Parkway West & Parkway D Compressors (2015) TCPL King s North Project (2015) Enbridge GTA Project (2015) Kirkwall Maple Parkway TCPL Vaughan Market Extension (2016) Parkway E Compressor (2017) Sarnia Expansion Pipeline (2015) Ojibway St. Clair Bluewater Lobo Dawn Dawn Compressor (2017) Bright Lobo C Compressor (2016) Lobo D Compressor (2017) Hamilton-Milton Pipeline (2016) Burlington-Oakville Pipeline (2016) Bright C Compressor (2017) Approximately $1.5B in Union Gas expansion planned to grow takeaway capacity by >50% 17

18 Threat to New Supply in Ontario Other markets competing for Marcellus/Utica supply Source: Bentek Northeast Observer April 15 More than 17 PJ/d of announced capacity expansions by 2017 for the U.S. Northeast, Southeast and Midwest 18

19 Dawn - A Significant Storage and Trading Hub Highly liquid trading hub Over 100 companies active on an annual basis 2 nd largest physically traded hub in North America Largest integrated storage facility in Canada (292 PJ) Connected to all major supply areas but needs more connections to Marcella/Utica producing region Growing to meet growing markets Economic and operational advantages for sourcing gas at Dawn 19

20 Dawn s Benefits Economic advantage Average of top 5 maximum prices for January - in CAD/GJ Source: Platts Gas Daily IROQUOIS: 2014 $ $13.70 DAWN: 2014 $ $3.83 BOSTON: 2014 $ $15.91 NEW YORK: 2014 $ $18.53 Well connected Dawn Hub shows a significant price advantage Need to ensure it remains well connected 20

21 Expansion of Natural Gas System to Rural and Northern Communities Escalation in energy prices for other fuels is creating unprecedented interest in conversion to natural gas Union has had requests from a number of municipalities December, 2013 Provincial Long term Energy Plan commitment In 2014 Province announced intent to fund via $230 M in municipal grants and loans 2014 Minister s Mandate Letters $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- Average Ontario Estimated Annual Cost of Energy (annual average use of 82 GJ) Natural Gas: Less than half the cost of other fuels! Propane Furnace Oil Electricity TOU Natural Gas February 2015 Ontario Energy Board Invitation to parties to propose plans for natural gas expansion Chart Sources: Propane & Heating Oil: The Kent Group. Rates taken for London for the South and Thunder Bay for the North Natural Gas: Union Gas Limited Rate Schedules Electricity: MEU time of use rates for sample of southern and northern utilities 21 2

22 LNG/CNG Opportunities in Ontario Delivering the benefits of natural gas where pipelines or other energy alternatives are not economic Mining, industrial applications, agriculture Power applications for mines and communities Enables the achievement of emission regulations in the transportation sector Long and short-haul trucks, fleet, return to base vehicles Marine transportation OEB decision enables the sale of LNG from Union s Hagar facility as an unregulated business 22

23 Gas Fired Power Generation

24 Natural Gas Looking back: power generation mix Change in capacity Nuclear +2,047 MW Hydro +19 MW Coal -7,600 MW Gas +5,020 MW Wind +2,483 MW Natural gas contribution to power generation increased by 16% in 9 years Sources: 2005 mix Ontario Power Authority, 2012; 2014 mix IESO November

25 Natural Gas Looking forward: power generation mix Source: IESO LTEP 2014 Natural gas is a simple and economic way to serve peaking needs during nuclear refurbishment 25

26 Natural Gas Key contributors to Ontario s economic growth Source: ICF GMM Q ICF International. All rights reserved % of Ontario s natural gas demand will be driven by industrial & power generation by

27 Summary Marcellus/Utica represents a tremendous opportunity for Ontario Ontario is investing heavily in infrastructure to support growing natural gas supply and demand Dawn is a highly liquid natural gas trading hub Dawn storage increases reliability of natural gas service Ontario must take full advantage of economic energy opportunities available now through support of pipeline connections to new pipelines Pipeline expansion from Marcellus/Utica will drive economic growth in Ontario 27