BPFI Housing Market Monitor

Transcription

1 BPFI Housing Market Monitor Q1/2016 With a commentary by Ali Uğur Economist and Head of Tax & Accounting, Banking & Payments Federation Ireland

2 OVERVIEW OF TRENDS Indicator Latest quarter One year ago % YoY change Dwelling completions 3,144 2, % Dwelling commencements 2,081 1, % Dwellings listed for sale 12,107 13, % Dwellings listed for rent 16,955 20, % Yr/yr change in transaction prices 7.4% 16.8% Yr/yr change in list prices 6.1% 15.5% Yr/yr change in list rents 9.3% 9.4% Average rent % Transactions 9,439 10, % Mortgage approvals 6,028 7, % Mortgage drawdowns 5,446 5, %

3 COMMENTARY BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q1/2016 Housing activity is increasing but supply constraints remain Supply of new homes in Ireland still remains low, despite a year-on-year increase of about 20% in completions in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in If the same trend were to continue for the rest of the year, it is likely that completions would be around the 15,000 mark for 2016 which would still be well below the estimated demand of 25,000 units. Around 39% of all units completed in the first quarter of 2016 were individual houses or one-off units. Of the total units completed in the first quarter of 2016, nearly one third of all completions were in the Dublin area where the shortage of housing supply is most acute; this is despite an approximate 50% increase in completions in the period compared with first quarter of Housing commencements also showed a significant increase in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in Some 2,100 commencements were recorded in the period, representing a 57% increase in activity compared to the same period in There was a strong increase in activity across the country, with commencements in Dublin, Munster and the rest of Leinster up year-on-year by 50%, 67% and 80%, respectively. If the same trend were to continue for the rest of 2016, and if we assume the same ratio of commencements to completions with a one year lag, there should be around 20,000 units completed in This number should be acknowledged in the context of one-off units accounting for between 35% to 40% of all completions in 2014 and Chart 1 - Housing Supply Activity (Units) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Commencements Completions Permissions Source: DoECLG In addition to commencements data, planning permissions are a good indicator of potential future housing supply. In 2015 planning permissions were granted for 13,595 residential units. This compares to 7,624 and 7,861 units that received planning permission in 2013 and 2014, respectively. More encouragingly still, only around 25% of these permissions were for one-off units compared with around 40% in 2013 and 2014 and around 52% back in Dublin and Dublin commuter areas (Louth, Meath, Kildare and Wicklow) accounted for just over 60% of

4 COMMENTARY BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q1/2016 planning permissions granted in 2015 compared with around 50% in 2013 and Shortage of supply of new housing units has been putting significant pressure both on the availability and the price of rental accommodation since According to the latest daft.ie Rental Report, there were just 3,082 properties on the market nationwide at the start of May, the lowest on record, compared to a peak of nearly 24,000 in mid-2009 and over 7,200 two years ago. The same report shows that annual inflation in rents in Dublin remained between 8% and 9% while outside Dublin the rate of inflation was just below 10%. This represents an annualised rate of rental inflation of around 9.6% since the second quarter of While cash has always played some part in the market over time, cash sales have become a significant feature of housing market activity in Ireland over the past few years. Using loanlevel data and Property Services Regulatory Authority data, BPFI s own analysis of transactions shows that, as of Q1 2016, cash purchases accounted for 47% of all transactions. That compares with an estimated 35% in the UK, according to the Council for Mortgage Lenders. However there are significant regional variations with cash sales accounting for a high of 75% of all transactions in county Leitrim and a low of around 29% in county Kildare. We estimate that in Dublin cash sales accounted for around 37% of all transactions in the first quarter of 2016 compared to around 40% in Q Chart 2 - Cash Sales as % of Residential Property Sales 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Kildare Meath Dublin Wicklow Cork Monaghan Laois Offaly Louth Sligo Kilkenny Source: BPFI based on BPFI and Property Services Regulatory Authority data Ali Uğur, Economist and Head of Tax & Accounting, Banking & Payments Federation Ireland Galway Tipperary Limerick Westmeath Carlow Kerry Clare Waterford Mayo Cavan Roscommon Wexford Donegal Longford Leitrim National

5 HOUSING SUPPLY Source: DoECLG New dwellings completed More than 3,100 new homes were completed in the first three months of Compared to the same period in 2015, this marks a 20% increase in the number of new homes built in year-on-year terms. Following three quarters of declining completions in Dublin, the latest figures represent a rebound in activity in the capital, with just over 1,000 new homes built between January and March, compared to 652 in the same period in Munster, including the cities, has also seen a strong increase in completions (up 29%). Elsewhere in the country, the number of new homes built was similar to the same quarter in 2015 (up 7% in Leinster, down 2% in Connacht-Ulster). 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

6 HOUSING SUPPLY Commencement of New Dwellings 5, Source: DoECLG Nearly 2,100 new homes were started in the first three months of This represents a 57% increase in activity compared to the same period in 2015 when 1,327 new homes were started. 5,000 2,500 // There was a strong increase in activity across the country, with commencements in Dublin, Munster and the rest of Leinster up year-on-year by 50%, 67% and 80%, respectively. Commencements in Connacht-Ulster rose by 18%. 2,000 1,500 1, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Truncated y-axis: Figure for Q ,249; figure for Q ,708

7 HOUSING SUPPLY Properties listed for sale Source: Daft.ie The first three months of 2016 saw just over 12,100 properties listed for sale, 9% below the same period in 2015 but significantly above the same three months in previous years. This marked two consecutive quarters of declining listings, in year-on-year terms, following ten quarters of growth between 2013 and For the second quarter in a row, the fall-off in listings was greatest in Dublin (-12%) and in Connacht-Ulster (-19%). Declines were seen in all parts of the country, although the decline was very small in the four cities outside Dublin. 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

8 HOUSING SUPPLY Properties listed for rent Source: Daft.ie The first quarter of 2016 saw just under 17,000 properties listed for rent, less than half the number listed for rent in the same three months in 2011 or The figure represents a 17% fall in the volume of listings, compared to the same period in 2015, and means that listings have fallen year-on-year in each of the 17 quarters since the start of the series. 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 The drop in listings in Dublin and in the four other cities was in line with the national average. There was a slightly greater fall in Munster (23%) and the decline in listings was smallest in Leinster outside Dublin (13%). 10,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

9 HOUSING PRICES & RENTS 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% National Ex-Dublin Dublin Transaction Prices 4% 0% Residential property prices rose by 7.4% in the year to March 2016, according to official CSO figures. This represents a slight increase in residential property price inflation, which had fallen to 6.6% in December, but inflation remained well below the high of 16.8% in March % -8% -12% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: CSO Inflation in residential property prices remained subdued in Dublin, at 3.9%, although this was up slightly on the December figure (2.6%). Outside the capital, house price inflation remained at close to 10% for the sixth successive quarter at 10.5% in March. 25% 20% Dublin Leinster National List Prices As in previous quarters, list prices show a very similar trend to transaction prices but allow a more detailed breakdown by region. The figures show a 6.1% year-on-year increase nationally, compared to 8.5% three months ago and 15.5% in the first quarter of % 10% 5% 0% Munster Other cities Connacht-Ulster Inflation in list prices in the capital was 1.2% in the first quarter of 2016, its lowest level since the market bottomed out in early Inflation in the rest of Leinster continues to ease off, reaching 8.6% in Q1 2016, compared to 21% in Q Munster inflation fell from 13.7% in December to 8.9% in March, but was steady at 10.4% in Connacht- Ulster. List price inflation remains highest in the cities outside Dublin (15.2%), the fourth quarter in a row that this has been the case. -5% -10% -15% -20% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: Daft.ie

10 HOUSING PRICES & RENTS List Rents Inflation in listed rents nationwide rose from 9.0% in Q to 9.3% in Q The national rate of inflation has now been close to 10% for eight successive quarters, although this has changed from being driven by Dublin to being driven by the rest of the country. 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% BPFI HOUSING MARKET MONITOR Q1/2016 Dublin Leinster National Munster Other cities Connacht-Ulster In Dublin, the rate of inflation was 8.8% in the first quarter of 2016, down from a high of 15% in mid In the other cities, rents inflation has doubled in the same time, from 7% to 14.1%. Elsewhere, rental inflation is highest in the rest of Leinster (10.8%) and lowest in Connacht-Ulster (6%) in Munster the rate of inflation is 7.4%. 2% 0% -2% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Source: Daft.ie Average Rents Nationwide*, the average rent charged in the final quarter of 2015 (the latest figures available as of mid-may) was 884, up from a low of 772 in mid-2012 but still well below the 2008 peak of just under 1,000. 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Dublin Leinster National Munster Connacht-Ulster Rents in Dublin are substantially higher than this, with an average rent of 1,239, up from a low of 1,020 in Q Rents in Leinster are slightly above the average for Munster, at 741 and 693 respectively. Rents in Connacht-Ulster are the lowest of the five regions shown, with average rents in the final quarter of 2015 of just over * Note: Nationwide, Leinster, Munster and Connacht-Ulster figures are derived from countylevel PRTB figures, which are weighted using county-level data from the 2011 Census on the number of households in rental accommodation. 400 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Source: PRTB

11 PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS & MORTGAGES 5, Property Transactions 5,000 In the first quarter of 2016, the number of property transactions in Ireland was just over 9,400, This represents a fall of 11% compared to the same three months of 2015 and is the second quarter in a row of falling transactions in year-on-year terms. This follows sixteen straight quarters of rising transaction levels, from a low of 3,500 in early 2011 to a high of nearly 16,000 in late The fall was greatest, proportionately, in Connacht- Ulster (17%) and in Leinster (13.9%). Dublin saw a 9.1% fall in transaction volumes, while Munster saw a 7.9% fall. 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Dublin Leinster Munster Connacht - Ulster Source: RPPR * Note: These numbers are based on transactions registered with the Residential Property Price Register by mid-may 2016 and are subject to revision.

12 PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS & MORTGAGES 9, Source: BPFI Mortgage Approvals 8,000 Mortgage approvals offer an early indicator of credit conditions in the mortgage market. The first quarter of 2016 saw just over 6,000 mortgages approved, based on a threemonth moving average, a 14% fall compared to the same period in The vast majority (over 5,200) of the approvals relate to house purchases, rather than refinancing or equity release. 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 Mortgage Drawdowns Given the nature of the housing market, the volume of mortgage drawdowns generally reflects transaction levels and again offers an indicator of credit conditions. Just under 5,450 mortgages were drawn down between January and March, of which nearly 4,700 related to property purchase. This represents a decline of 3% on the same period in 2015 and the first time since late 2013 that drawdowns fell in year-on-year terms. Nonetheless, the figure for Q marks the second highest return for the first three months of the year for the six years in the series. 3,000 2,000 1,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Approvals Drawdowns

13 ABOUT THE REPORT The information presented here is based on a range of publicly available reports and datasets and collated by Identify Consulting for Banking & Payments Federation of Ireland. It is intended to bring together the range of housing and mortgage market data available and to constructively inform on-going analysis and assessment of the housing and mortgage market. Figures are presented by quarter and by region, where possible. Unless otherwise specified, quantities given for particular quarters (and/or regions) are totals, while prices are averages for the entire quarter. The sources used for compiling the report are as follows: the Department of the Environment, Community & Local Government [dwelling completions and commencements] the Central Statistics Office [transactions price index] the Residential Property Price Register [number of transactions] the Private Residential Tenancies Board [average rents] Daft.ie [number of properties listed for sale and for rent; indices of list prices and rents] Banking & Payments Federation of Ireland [mortgage approvals and drawdowns]

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