Annual Motor Insurance Seminar Gearing up for the future. Tuesday 18 November 2014 Conrad Hotel, Dublin

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1 Annual Motor Insurance Seminar Gearing up for the future Tuesday 18 November 2014 Conrad Hotel, Dublin

2 Glenn Gillard Partner, Head of Insurance

3 3

4 4

5 5

6 Nov 2013 Apr 2014 July 2015 Sept 2014 Nov 2014 New penalty Points New Reserving Requirements Periodic Payment Orders

7 Volumes Frequency Spending power Severity Cost

8 Periodical Payment Orders UK Registration survey results - Issues I Source: Motor insurance seminar 2014 survey results Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

9 Periodical Payment Orders UK Registration survey results - Issues I Source: Motor insurance seminar 2014 survey results Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

10 10

11 Rob McGowan Senior Manager, Deloitte UK Periodic Payment Orders

12 Periodical Payment Orders The Background Followed from Courts Act 2003 implemented in 2005 Common since 2008 Regular payments Serious injuries Cost of Care Paid until death Indexed ASHE 6115 Mainly motor insurers Also other liability Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

13 Number of PPO Settlements Periodical Payment Orders The Past Quarterly PPO Settlements Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Quarter Source: PPO Working Party GIRO Report 2013, January 2014 Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

14 Periodical Payment Orders The Future Our Base Scenario Assumptions Parameter Assumption Number of Settlements 84 p.a. Claimant Age Male to Female Ratio 2 to 1 Annual Payment ( 000 s) Lump Sum ( m) Annuity Frequency Quarterly Base Mortality Table Ogden 7 th Edition Mortality Loading Future Inflation 3.50% Nominal Discount Rate 3.50% Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

15 Millions Periodical Payment Orders The Future Our Base Scenario Reserves as at Gross discounted settled PPO reserves by Claimant Age Age of Claimant (as at 2024) Source: Deloitte Analytics Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

16 Billions Periodical Payment Orders The Future Our Base Scenario 16 Gross discounted settled PPO reserves Financial Year Source: Deloitte Analytics Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

17 Periodical Payment Orders The Future Some Alternatives Parameter Base Scenario Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Number of Settlements Claimant Age 84 p.a. 48 p.a (2017) Male to Female Ratio 2 to 1 Annual Payment ( 000 s) Lump Sum ( m) Annuity Frequency Quarterly Base Mortality Table Ogden 7 th Edition Mortality Loading 300% 500% Future Inflation 3.50% 4.50% Nominal Discount Rate 3.50% Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

18 Difference in Reserves compared to Base Scenario (%) Periodical Payment Orders The Future Some Alternatives 60% 50% Base Scenario 300% Mortality Loading 500% Mortality Loading 4.5% future inflation 48 settlements p.a. (2017) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Year Source: Deloitte Analytics Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

19 Periodical Payment Orders The Future New Complexities It used to be simple Patchwork Quilt 100% Capitalisation Clauses Capitalisation Clauses Indexation Indexation Indexation Capitalisation Clauses Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

20 Periodical Payment Orders The Future New Complexities Government Intervention Capitalisation Clauses Impaired Annuity Market Capitalisation Clauses Indexation Indexation Solvency II Ogden Discount Rate Crashless Society Indexation Capitalisation Clauses Payment in Kind Economic Markets Deloitte Motor Insurance Seminar

21 21

22 Eimear McCarthy Partner, Insurance Talent in Insurance

23 The 12 Key Human Capital Trends This year s 12 critical human capital trends are organised into three broad themes Lead and develop Attract and engage Transform and reinvent Leaders at all levels: Close the gap between hype and readiness Talent acquisition revisited: Deploy new approaches for the new battlefield The reskilled HR team: Transform HR professionals into skilled business consultants Corporate learning redefined: Prepare for a revolution Beyond retention: Build passion and purpose Talent analytics in practice: Go from talking to delivering on big data Performance management is broken: Replace rank and yank with coaching and development From diversity to inclusion: Move from compliance to diversity as a business strategy Race to the cloud: Integrate talent, HR, and business technologies The quest for workforce capability: Create a global skills supply chain The overwhelmed employee: Simplify the work environment The global and local HR function: Balance scale and agility

24 24

25 Move beyond retention Build passion and purpose in the workforce By 2025, Millennials will account for 75% of the global workforce Irish Results Importance Millenials have different employer expectations. We want to work for organisations that foster innovative thinking 62% Important = 66.6% We want organisations to develop our leadership skills early in our careers Readiness 49% We want to make a positive contribution to society and work for organisations that care about tackling bigger issues (e.g. climate change) Somewhat Ready = 50%

26 The (un)popularity of insurance Addressing the perception of a career in insurance Globally, insurance is ranked 18 th out of 30 industry sectors for business students Insurers are battling with the fast moving consumer goods, software and computer services Despite importance of insurance in society graduates know relatively little about insurers The sector has a boring and old-fashioned image that attracts students who are comfortable with it. Insurers must change their image Dispelling the image of the men in grey suits

27 27

28 Changing the perception of insurance Is the industry attracting the right people? Goals and attributes of the Insurance-inclined Security, stability and job security Willingness to trade off work-life balance Remuneration and advancement opportunities rate highly for insurance (and business) students Survey found innovation is less attractive to insurance inclined students Individuals who may become the insurance leaders of tomorrow do not appear to have the right mindset Do not display an inclination for creativity Lack of desire for international travel

29 29

30 Changing the perception of insurance Action is needed to make sure insurance companies are attracting and retaining the right students Promoting Insurance As a Career Steps to addressing the problems 1. Raise the profile of insurance 2. Build insurers campus presence 3. Attract more women 4. Attract students with the right mind-set 5. Modernise development programmes 6. Market international opportunities Insurers must work together, with industry bodies and universities, as appropriate to promote insurance as a career and correct the misperception that it (insurance) is dull and unexciting

31 Thought Leadership Our detailed reports:

32 Cormac Hennessy Senior Manager, Insurance Analytics Statistical review

33 DataSources INCA,RiskInteligenceIreland AnGardaSíochánaTraficStatistics CentralStatisticsOfice(CSO) DepartmentofTransport,Tourism andsport RSARoadColisionFactbook2012withprovisionalupdatestocertaintablesfor2013 Responsestoon-linesurveyissuedwithinvitation "Ontheday"interactivesurveyresponsesfrom seminaratendees

34 Definitions Dataisderivedfrom Forms2(net)and8(gross)whereappropriate. Aldatausedisonacalenderyear(accounting)basisasperforms. MarketshareisbasedonNetWritenPremiums. Adjustmentsaremadetosomecompaniesdata(Zurich&RSA). ClaimsRatio=CostofClaimsIncured/EarnedPremium Income ExpenseRatio=ManagementExpenses/NWP CommissionRatio=Commissions/NWP CombinedOperatingRatio(COR)=ClaimsRatio+ExpenseRatio+CommissionRatio UnderwritingResult=TotalIncome-TotalOutgoing InsuranceResult=UnderwritingResult+InvestmentIncome

35 MarketPremium +Premium Income 4000K 3500K 3000K 2500K 2000K 1500K YearofDate 1999to2013 LOB TreatyReinsurance CreditandSuretyship MarineAviationTransit OtherClasses AccidentandHealth Liability FireandProperty Motor 1000K 500K 0K YearofDate

36 Economic Date YearofDate 2000to % 14.6% 14.7% MeasureNames GDPGrowthRate % 13.1% AverageWeeklyEarnin. InflationRate 0.10 UnemploymentRate 0.08 Value % 4.3% 3.9% 5.85% 4.4% 4.6% 3.7% 3.7% 2.98% 2.9% 5.70% 4.63% 4.5% 4.4% 1.9% 2.1% 5.47% 4.90% 4.5% 3.6% 4.6% 4.7% -2.69% 6.4% 4.0% 0.02% -4.6% -0.30% -0.9% -1.89% 2.79% 2.5% -0.53% 1.7% 0.47% -0.30% 0.5% 0.18% -0.69% %

37 MarketCOR Date YearofDate 1999to % 100% 80% 120% 8% 12% 115% 10% 11% 104% 10% 11% 91% 10% 10% 84% 11% 81% 82% 82% 11% 11% 12% 100% 12% 18% 115% 12% 18% 110% 12% 20% 101% 13% 21% 111% 12% 27% 116% 13% 23% MeasureNames CommissionRatio ExpenseRatio ClaimsRatio COR 60% 13% 14% 14% 16% 40% 99% 95% 83% 71% 61% 56% 57% 55% 70% 85% 78% 66% 72% 79% 20% 0%

38 MarketResults YearofDate 1999to K 1000K 1200K 1000K MeasureNames ResultonTechnicalAcc. UnderwritingProfit/Loss 800K 800K ResultonTechnicalAccount 600K 400K 200K 600K 400K 200K UnderwritingProfit/Loss 0K 0K -200K -200K -400K -400K YearofDate

39 MarketShareStacked Date YearofDate 1999to2013 % oftotal+premium IncomeADJUSTED 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 5% 4% 5% 10% 5% 6% 80% 4% 7% 8% 9% 8% 9% 17% 20% 23% 20% 15% 14% 13% 15% 7% 6% 8% 8% 11% 11% 9% 11% 10% 11% 14% 9% 9% 3% 8% 10% 17% 18% 12% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 19% 17% 11% 11% 10% 12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 11% 13% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 19% 18% 12% 7% 6% 9% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 9% 10% 11% 13% 11% 10% 3% 4% 6% 8% 7% 8% 8% 11% 12% 11% 12% 12% 13% 15% 14% Insurer(group) Others Travelers IPB AIG Liberty\Quinn Zurich Alianz AXAInsurance FBD RSAInsurance Aviva 10% 23% 23% 17% 22% 20% 19% 21% 20% 19% 15% 15% 15% 16% 14% 0%

40 MarketShare YearofDate 1999to2013 % oftotal+premium IncomeADJUSTED 20% 15% 10% Insurer(group) AIG Alianz Aviva AXAInsurance FBD IPB Liberty\Quinn Others RSAInsurance Travelers Zurich 5% 0% YearofDate

41 LoBPremium YearofDate 1999to K 1600K 1400K +Premium IncomeADJUSTED 1200K 1000K 800K 600K 400K 200K 0K YearofDate

42 VehicleVolume 2500K 2,497,576 2,467,660 2,441,564 2,434,822 2,425,156 2,403,223 2,482, K 1500K Total 1000K 500K 0K YearofDate

43 AvePremium AveragePremium Date(CPI) Avg.MotorInsuranceConsumerPriceIndex(BaseDec2011=100) MeasureNames AveragePremium Avg.MotorInsuranceC

44 LoBShareStacked Date YearofDate 1999to2013 % oftotal+premium IncomeADJUSTED 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 90.00% Insurer(group) Others IPB Travelers AIG Zurich Alianz Liberty\Quinn FBD RSAInsurance Aviva AXAInsurance 20% 10% 0%

45 LoBShare YearofDate 1999to2013 % oftotal+premium IncomeADJUSTED 25% 20% 15% 10% Insurer(group) AIG Alianz Aviva AXAInsurance FBD IPB Liberty\Quinn RSAInsurance Travelers Zurich Others 5% 0% YearofDate

46 LoBClaimsCost 1600K 110% 110% YearofDate 1999to K 98% 94% 100% MeasureNames =CostofClaimsIncured ClaimsRatio 1200K 87% 87% 85% 90% 75% 80% =CostofClaimsIncured 1000K 800K 600K 74% 64% 56% 66% 58% 70% 73% 70% 60% 50% 40% ClaimsRatio 400K 30% 20% 200K 10% 0K YearofDate 0%

47 LoBClaimsCostAdjusted 1600K 110% 110% YearofDate 1999to K 98% 100% MeasureNames =CostofClaimsIncure. ClaimsRatio(ADJUSTE. =CostofClaimsIncuredADJUSTED 1200K 1000K 800K 600K 87% 87% 75% 74% 66% 64% 58% 56% 80% 67% 69% 73% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% ClaimsRatio(ADJUSTED) 400K 30% 20% 200K 10% 0K YearofDate 0%

48 Severity 4,685 YearofOrigin 2006to2013 CurentACPC 4,000 3,505 3,000 3,009 2,000 1,000 3,452 3,113 3,052 3,151 2,993 2,996 4,045 3,844 3,908 4,321 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 InitialACPC Company AIG AlianzCorporateIreland AvivaInsurance AXAInsurance FBD LibertyInsuranceLimited QuinnInsurance(under. RSAInsurance Zurich ZurichIreland 0 30% 28% 0 % DiferenceinInitialACPC 20% 10% 0% -2% 0% 2% 11% MeasureNames CurentACPC InitialACPC % DiferenceinInitialA. -10% -13% YearofOrigin

49 Frequency Frequency 11.8% 10.0% 5.0% 12.5% 12.8% 11.5% 10.2% 9.9% 9.7% YearofOrigin 2006to2013 Company AIG AlianzCorporateIreland AvivaInsurance AXAInsurance FBD LibertyInsuranceLimited QuinnInsurance(under. RSAInsurance Zurich ZurichIreland 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% DiferenceinFrequency 0.0% -0.5% -0.3% -0.3% -1.0% -1.3% YearofOrigin -1.3%

50 TraficOfenceStats YearofDate YearofDate 2007to2013 Count 500K 400K 300K Ofence Other RoadTransport DangerousDriving DWI SeatBelt VehiclesDetained Mobile Speeding 200K 100K 0K Source:GardaTraficStatistics

51 PenaltyPointReasons Year OfenceType(group) DUI UsevehiclewithoutNCT. 1000K 900K 800K 6% 10% 6% 9% 10% 5% 8% 10% Noinsurance-(user) SeatBelt Driving Drivingavehiclewhileh. Speeding 700K 11% Count 600K 500K 400K 300K 71% 72% 74% 200K 100K 0K Source:RoadSafetyAuthority

52 %ofdriverswithpoints County KILDARE CLARE WICKLOW LONGFORD MEATH LIMERICK ROSCOMMON KILKENNY WESTMEATH DUBLIN LEITRIM CARLOW SLIGO WATERFORD LOUTH WEXFORD LAOIS CORK OFFALY CAVAN TIPPERARY GALWAY KERRY MAYO MONAGHAN DONEGAL 22.3% 21.8% 21.5% 21.0% 20.6% 20.5% 19.9% 19.8% 19.7% 19.1% 18.9% 18.6% 18.4% 18.0% 18.0% 17.9% 17.9% 17.8% 17.0% 16.0% 14.4% 14.2% 13.4% Average 23.6% 23.6% 23.4% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 13.00% 14.00% 15.00% 16.00% 17.00% 18.00% 19.00% 20.00% 21.00% 22.00% 23.00% 24.00% 25.00% % ofdriverswithpenaltypoints

53 AvePointsperLicence County KILDARE WICKLOW CLARE KILKENNY MEATH LONGFORD WEXFORD DUBLIN LIMERICK ROSCOMMON SLIGO CARLOW WATERFORD WESTMEATH LEITRIM LAOIS CAVAN LOUTH OFFALY TIPPERARY CORK GALWAY KERRY MONAGHAN MAYO DONEGAL Average PointsperDriver

54 ClaimsReservetoPaidRatio 419% YearofDate 1999to % 395% 396% 396% 350% 349% 300% 309% ReservetoClaim PaidRatio 250% 200% 271% 271% 268% 260% 250% 191% 256% 279% 150% 100% 50% 0% YearofDate

55 LoBClaimsvsMarketShare 22% Insurer(group) AIG Alianz AXAInsurance Aviva 20% AXAInsurance FBD 18% IPB Liberty\Quinn % oftotal+premium IncomeADJUSTED 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% Aviva FBD Liberty\Quinn Zurich Alianz RSAInsurance Others RSAInsurance Travelers Zurich 6% 4% AIG 2% 0% Others IPB Travelers Industry 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170% 180% 190% ClaimsRatio

56 LoBClaimsvsMarketShareYoY 22% Insurer(group) AIG Alianz Aviva 20% 2012 AXAInsurance FBD 18% IPB Liberty\Quinn % oftotal+premium IncomeADJUSTED 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% RSAInsurance Zurich Travelers Others 4% % 0% % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170% 180% 190% ClaimsRatio

57 LoBExpenses Insurer(group) AXAInsurance 40K 35K AXAInsurance Aviva FBD Liberty\Quinn FBD Aviva Liberty\Quinn RSAInsurance Alianz Zurich 30K AIG Travelers +ManagementExpenses 25K 20K 15K Average RSAInsurance Alianz Others IPB Zurich 10K AIG 5K 0K Others Travelers 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% ExpenseRatio IPB Industry

58 LoBExpensevsMarketShare 22% Insurer(group) AIG Alianz AXAInsurance Aviva 20% AXAInsurance FBD 18% IPB Liberty\Quinn % oftotal+premium IncomeADJUSTED 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% RSAInsurance Alianz Aviva FBD Zurich Liberty\Quinn RSAInsurance Travelers Zurich Others 6% 4% AIG 2% 0% Others 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% ExpenseRatio IPB Industry Travelers

59 LoBExp+Com vsmarketshare 22% Insurer(group) AIG Alianz AXAInsurance Aviva 20% AXAInsurance FBD 18% IPB Liberty\Quinn % oftotal+premium IncomeADJUSTED 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% RSAInsurance FBD Alianz Aviva Liberty\Quinn Zurich RSAInsurance Travelers Zurich Others 6% 4% AIG 2% 0% IPB 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Non-ClaimsCostRatio Others Total Travelers

60 LoBExp+Com vsmarketshareyoy 22% Insurer(group) AIG Alianz Aviva 20% 2012 AXAInsurance FBD % oftotal+premium IncomeADJUSTED 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% IPB Liberty\Quinn RSAInsurance Travelers Zurich Others 4% % 0% % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% Non-ClaimsCostRatio

61 LoBCOR Date YearofDate 1999to2013 COR 120% 100% 80% 60% 125% 11% 110% 112% 4% 10% 101% 101% 5% 5% 10% 89% 4% 85% 82% 20% 5% 79% 10% 5% 75% 5% 13% 5% 15% 16% 14% 110% 111% 6% 7% 17% 19% 102% 8% 24% 108% 8% 27% 123% 8% 21% MeasureNames CommissionRatio ExpenseRatio ClaimsRatio 40% 98% 87% 74% 64% 56% 66% 58% 75% 87% 85% 70% 73% 94% 20% 0%

62 LoBCORAdjusted YearofDate YearofDate 1999to2013 COR(ADJUSTED) 120% 100% 80% 60% 125% 11% 110% 112% 4% 10% 101% 101% 5% 5% 10% 89% 4% 85% 82% 20% 5% 79% 10% 5% 75% 5% 13% 5% 15% 16% 14% 110% 6% 17% 105% 7% 18% 97% 8% 22% 99% 7% 22% 101% 8% 20% MeasureNames CommissionRatio(ADJ. ExpenseRatio(ADJUS. ClaimsRatio(ADJUSTE. COR(ADJUSTED) 98% 40% 87% 74% 64% 56% 66% 58% 75% 87% 80% 67% 69% 73% 20% 0%

63 LoBResult 700K 700K YearofDate 1999to K 500K 600K 500K MeasureNames ResultonTechnicalAcc. UnderwritingProfit/Loss 400K 400K ResultonTechnicalAccount 300K 200K 100K 0K 300K 200K 100K 0K UnderwritingProfit/Loss -100K -100K -200K -200K -300K -300K -400K YearofDate -400K

64 Glenn Gillard Some final thoughts

65 34

66 35

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