Progress of History Matching at the Ketzin Storage Site

Transcription

1 Progress of History Matching at the Ketzin Storage Site Thomas Kempka, Ben Norden, Benjamin Nakaten, Holger Class, Marco De Lucia, Uwe-Jens Görke, Inga Moeck, Stefan Klapperer, Olaf Kolditz, Michael Kühn, Ursula Lengler, Lena Walter, Wenqing Wang, Bernd Wiese, Björn Zehner 7 th Monitoring Network Meeting 7-9 June 2011, GFZ Potsdam, Germany

2 Detailed models including heterogeneities were developed in the post-drilling phase P. Frykman model from Kempka et al. (2010)

3 Model of 25 km 2 size applied for history matching of CO 2 arrival times and pressure 5 km 5 km P. Frykman model from Kempka et al. (2010)

4 Successful history matching only for arrival time at the first observation well Frykman et al. (2008) Kempka et al. (2010)

5 Successful history matching only for arrival time at the first observation well Calculated vs observed CO 2 arrival times Ktzi 200: days (observed 21) Ktzi 202: days (observed 271) Frykman et al. (2008) Kempka et al. (2010)

6 Elaboration of reasons for the late arrival time in the second observation well? Fancy illustration by P. Frykman

7 Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate low impact of heterogeineity on late arrival Realisation using MC simulations of heterogeneous horizontal 2D models ~60% Probability that CO 2 has still not arrived after 100 days Probability that CO 2 already arrived after 100 days ~40% Lengler et al. (in prep.) arrival time for homogeneous model ~100 days

8 Efficient history matching requires an integrated iterative modeling framework Dynamic 3D modeling 1D/2D parameter estimation Static 3D modeling Unique data set Integration of operational and monitoring data

9 Extensive integration of new data undertaken for revision of the static model Literature data from e.g. Beutler (1999) and Kruck & Wolff (1975) Attribute analysis for Stuttgart formation (3D seismics) from Kazemeini et al. (2009) 5 CO 2 distribution (4D seismics) according to Juhlin et al. (2010) PNG S (SIGM) BLM from Henninges et al. (2010) Resistivity ratio (ERT) after Bergmann et al. (2010)

10 Revised data lead to an updated facies model of the Stuttgart formation Regional trend and channel geometry from literature Revision of sand and clay contents 3D seismic attribute data for the upper Stuttgart formation 4D seismic data for mapping of sand channels around the wells 100% sand channel Average facies distribution Zone A, Frykman model % flood-plain Average facies distribution Zone A, Norden model 2011

11 Updated petrophysical data integrated to model the facies parameter distribution Laboratory and well data (Norden et al. 2010) Literature data (e.g. Wolfgramm et al. 2008) Revision of variograms for porosity distribution Porosity calculated using sequential Gauss simulations ( patchy distribution ) with regard to 3D attribute map Permeability calculated based on poro-perm relationship High porosity Average distribution of effective porosity Zone A, Frykman model 2008 Low porosity Average distribution of effective porosity Zone A, Norden model 2011

12 Reservoir permeability is a key parameter for the matching of the CO 2 migration Permeability (md) Ktzi 201 Ktzi 200 Sand channels in floodplain 3D model with about elements

13 Static geological Ketzin model validated by dynamic simulations Numerical results prove horizontal anisotropy as observed in hydraulic tests

14 Dynamic Ketzin model in good agreement with observed CO 2 arrival times Calculated arrival times: Ktzi 200: 23 days (observed 21) Ktzi 202: 257 days (observed 271) Seismic data from Ivanova et al. (2011) based on Juhlin et al. (2010)

15 Integration of 2D difference maps for further verification and improvement of static model Thickness of CO 2 plume in meters in late October 2009 (1 st time-lapse repeat) Scaled time-lapse amplitudes Dynamic modeling results Thickness Thickness

16 TerraSAR-X surface deformation monitoring to validate geomechanical models Ktzi 202 Ground deformation predicted by analytical and numerical models. Ktzi 201 Ktzi 200 TerraSAR-X data recorded since April corner reflectors situated close to Ktzi wells since April Core samples will be taken from new wells for geomechanical tests. Integration of CO 2 SINK and COSMOS-2 geomechanical data. Photo by C. Lubitz

17 The next step is the coupled process simulation at the Ketzin site THM loop modified after Rutqvist and Tsang (2002, 2003)

18 FLAC3D model of the Stuttgart formation is implemented and regional model on the way

19 Revised static model allowed the first successful history match for the Ketzin site Revision of static model by integration of relevant monitoring data. Revision of porosity and permeability distribution in the specific facies. Verification of the static model by dynamic simulations. Good agreement of arrival times and reservoir pressure achieved by history matching. Static modeling and dynamic simulations are still work in progress.

20 Coupled process simulations and comparison with monitoring data scheduled at Ketzin Integration of emerging monitoring data and dynamic simulation results to frequently update the static model. Predictive modeling and comparison with monitoring data. Integration of dynamic models for optimization of geophysical monitoring networks. Coupling of thermal-hydraulic models with geochemistry and geomechanics. Well integrity (CO 2 CARE project) Thank you for your attention!