Mobile applications, the future of application delivery and platforms

Transcription

1 Mobile applications, the future of application delivery and platforms Michael King Research Director Gartner Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

2 Mobile Application Development Strategic Platform or Tactical Investment? Strategic Platform The iphone's effect: Improved usability and multichannel a proven requirement Multichannel tools are becoming pluggable, into existing IDEs Mobile AD closer to mainstream, will supersede non-mobile by 2011 Future: Rich client, unified communications, context Tactical Investment Viewpoint: A subset of enterprise mobile applications can be rapidly deployed "commodities" Mashups/portals used when network coverage is appropriate SaaS for simple applications and where desktop takes the lead Android Bio Wallet iphone Mashup Pyxis Mobile Financial App.

3 Key Issues 1. What are the trends for in networking, devices, and mobile software? 2. What is the vendor and technology landscape for mobile application development, and how will it change? 3. How can enterprises successfully manage mobile devices?

4 Mobility Will Be a Trillion-Dollar Business The service and social era The application era The device era billion connections, >$1 trillion direct voice + data service revenue per annum, multiple $ billions in indirect revenue, e.g., advertising Data revenue exceeds voice revenue in advanced markets 5.1 billion connections

5 Networks: The Future Will Arrive Slowly 100% 50% 0% Projected network technologies used by subscribers in 2014 GSM WCDMA & HSPA LTE Others CDMA & EV-DO LTE will deliver 10s to 100s Mbps downlink data rates but will take many years to roll out Fewer than 5% of handsets shipped globally in 2014 will support LTE LTE provides better spectral efficiency and performance Operators in mature markets will control data demand using technology & pricing through 2014 Increased use of Wi-Fi to offload demand from 3G, but roaming remains a challenge In most regions, several generations of network will coexist through 2015 Network performance will remain a competitive differentiator

6 Shifting Sands: Smartphone OS Market Share by Region Predicted Smartphone market share 2012 Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Pacific North America Western Europe 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Android Bada ios MeeGo Symbian RIM Windows Smartphones as a percentage of the installed handset base 100% Mature Markets, e.g., Western Europe, North America 50% 0% Japan Emerging markets, e.g., Eastern Europe, Latin America

7 Mobile Platform Trends: The "Platform" Is Changing New "platforms," e.g., augmented reality tools Open OS Handset Sales by Platform 50% Scriptable mapping tools Symbian 40% Platform substitutes e.g., Air, Qt, Flash, Silverlight,... Android iphone OS 30% 20% Mobile Browser + HTML5 Microsoft RIM 10% Mobile OS MeeGo 0% Alternative "platforms"

8 Mobile OS Evolution, 2005 to 2011 TrackBall OS Storm OS OS Garnet 6.0 Cobalt Access Linux? PRE Foundation One Foundation Two

9 Context Changes Everything Search Reactive Any time Single channel Generic Individual Implied privacy Sessions Separate services Suggestion Proactive Real time Multichannel Hyperpersonalized Social, intent-driven Informed consent Ensemble interactions Federated financial, communications and content providers

10 Key Issues 1. What are the trends for in networking, devices, and mobile software? 2. What is the vendor and technology landscape for mobile application development, and how will it change? 3. How can enterprises successfully manage mobile devices?

11 Mobile Tools and Platforms: Balancing Rapidly Changing Requirements OS Fragmentation Consumerization App Proliferation Today's Strategy Tactics: Still tactical and siloed skills and investment Large enterprise shift to platforms Release "cadence" during normalized Pace of change greatly increasing Implications: Drivers for Change: Scale and cost apps for the masses installed base of Web-capable phones > PCs by 2013 Substantial improvement in UI Incumbents in peril: New round of innovation around RIA, HTML5

12 Mobile Application Development Tools Will Proliferate Through 2012 Consumer target Cross-platform tool e.g., Flash, Qt, Kony On-device portals e.g., Modomodo Template generators e.g., AppBreeder App store tools e.g., Appcelerator Consumer tools e.g., App inventor Consumer or enterprise target Platform SDK e.g., Apple, Android Mobile Web tools e.g., Volantis MCAP Enterprise target MEAP e.g., Antenna, Syclo Packaged mobile apps e.g., Blue Dot, Cognito Typically lower productivity Typically higher productivity Typical cross-platform capability: strong some weak/none

13 The Emerging Trends in Mobile Application Development and Sourcing The Trends Mobile enterprise returns to growth >10% CAGR building and purchase of OTS increases Web-capable phones outnumber PCs by year-end % packaged mobile application vendors give up tool orientation by Four large ISVs dominate enterprise mobile application development New rich-client deployments outnumber thick-client deployments by 2012 Commoditization will drive packaged mobile application prices down by 30% by 2013 MEAP vendors forced to add thin, rich and messaging support by 2013 The Implications Specialization and fragmentation will still rule in mobile application development and sourcing in Mobile application development will need to remain a core competence in transformational areas; at the same time, more-mature areas need to be optimized.

14 Mobile application tools, levels of sophistication Operational Platforms Multi-Platform Development Tools Cross platform SDK/Tool; Adobe, Nokia QT Cross Platform High Level Tool RHOMobile, Appcelerator Operational Toolkits Mobile device Management Sybase Afaria, Thin Client Application Servers Data Management and security software; Trend Micro, Mobileiron, etc Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms, Sybase, Antenna, Syclo, ETC Mobile consumer application Platforms, Sybase 365, Nokia, Etc Operation system based SDKs/ecosystem s, Apple, Android, etc

15 Selecting From the Evolving Six Styles of Mobile Architecture People Security & Management Usability Mobile Architecture Determinants Business Process Cost & Scale Coverage Thick Devices and data must be managed and secure Rich Devices must be managed, less data to secure Thin Devices should be managed, no data requirements StreamingMessagingNo Client No management requirements Devices should be managed, messages too No management requirements Unique development skills required Unique development skills required Web development skills only Flash Lite, Silverlight skills Required Not required, text output only Server only

16 HTML 5 vs. Native Development? Backing from Apple, Google and Palm APIs include: - An API that enables offline Web applications - The canvas tag for immediate mode 2-D drawing - Offline storage database - Document editing - Drag and drop Will the OS be relevant in the future? JavaScript performance becomes important - Apple emphasized during the 3GS launch

17 Use of the Six Styles of Mobile Applications Among Enterprise Applications Addressable devices Data on device Security and mgmt. concerns Device resource addressab ility Thick Client Limited to smart with a third party OS Application and application data permanently on device Data must be managed and secure Rich Client Smart phones and limited enhanced phones Application and limited cached data resident on device Applications must be managed and secured Thin Client Most devices, with browsers, limited by browser functionality Data only resident in browser cache Browsers must support encryption Streaming Client Limited devices, with streaming player Streaming client only, not data resident after consumption User name and password management only Messaging Client More than 90% of devices in market Data remains on device until deleted Phone number and password management only Unlimited devices No data on device None High High Limited Limited None None No Client Cost to develop High High Medium Low Low Medium Pending Early adopters Widespread use

18 : Time to Bridge Your Mobile Application Platform Strategy Packaged Mobile Applications Packaged Mobile Applications Wireless Application Gateways Multichannel Access Gateways Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms User Experience Mobile Application Platforms Platforms Portals/Mobile Consumer App Platforms Cross-Platform Generic Client AD and beyond Nascent Adolescent Early Mainstream Mainstream

19 2010 Mobile Enterprise Application Platform Magic Quadrant Source: "Magic Quadrant for Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms" G , January 2010

20 Packaged Mobile Application Platform Vendor Orientation System Integration, Process Expertise Pure Application Orientation Tooling Orientation

21 Getting Started: Categorizing Your Mobile Applications

22 Top Ten Success Factors for Good Mobile User Experience 1. Don t assume *anything* about user preferences: objective validation of subjective design tradeoffs 2. Embedded analytics: observe and iterate 3. Speed, Speed, and the Perception of Speed 4. Navigation: based on role, task, taxonomy, or search 5. Minimizing Clutter: Rule of 7 s (or 5 s or 3 s?) 6. Context, Search and Communications are a gesture away 7. The Content = The Interface 8. Undo/ Single Tap Back Navigation to Home 9. Integration with Context Process, Environment, Community 10. Graceful Degradation (OS, browser, network) Expect cross platform tools to automatically align navigation paradigm

23 Key Issues 1. What are the trends for in networking, devices, and mobile software? 2. What is the vendor and technology landscape for mobile application development, and how will it change? 3. How can enterprises successfully manage mobile devices?

24 The Mobile Device Management Migraine More Employee Choice No Dominant Platform Increasing Smartphone Adoption More Worker Mobility Performance Management/ Support Changing Business Styles No One Solution or Provider Corporate Data Risk Decentralized Global Services Business Continuity Planning

25 Managing Mobile Devices & Applications Will Demand New Approaches Less responsibility for devices and services Hands off Use approaches and architectures where it's not necessary to take corporate responsibility, e.g., "bring your own" IT Users need autonomy to create new processes and deliverables on any device they choose Innovationoriented Choiceoriented Controloriented More responsibility for devices and services Users want device choice and have undemanding application requirements (e.g., mobile + Web) IT must guarantee service levels, metrics security and support, and cost; a high level of control is essential

26 Recommendations and Action Plan for Everyone Monday Morning Introduce mobile device selection and management approaches that accommodate employee demands for more choice. Identify which architectures are most appropriate to meet new applications, target platforms and audiences. Next 90 Days Evaluate cross-platform mobile app development tools use the six mobile architecture styles as your main reference point Refresh your B2C mobile strategy every six months to revalidate assumptions about devices, services and user behaviors. Align sourcing strategies with app requirements and life cycles. This may require contract renegotiations. Next 12 Months Establish architecture standards for mobile application support. Integrate them into internal application standards groups.

27 Related Gartner Research "Put an Integrated Mobile Strategy in Place, or Face Increased Costs Later," G "Critical Capabilities for Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms," G "Magic Quadrant for Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms," G "MarketScope for Packaged Mobile Application Platforms," G "Mobile Architectures, 2009 Through 2012: A Trend Toward Thin," G "SAP's Mobile Strategy Will Force Enterprises to Make Complex Choices," G For more information, stop by Gartner Solution Central or us at solutioncentral@gartner.com.

28 Related Gartner Research "How CIOs Can Introduce and Set the Scope for Context-Aware Computing Initiatives" William Clark (G ) New Approaches to Managing Mobile Users and Smartphones Nick Jones (G ) SAP's Purchase of Sybase Adds Complexity to the Mobile Software Market Michael King, William Clark (G ) Top Eight Ways Context Will Make Your M-Commerce Applications Stickier Anne Lapkin, Gene Alvarez (G ) Choosing Development Tools for Smartphone App Store Applications Nick Jones (G ) For more information, stop by Gartner Solution Central or us at