KBC Technical Analysis Forex From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on

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1 From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on EUR/USD:(1.3452) Currently still below the LT channel of and toying with Bullish Flag top (see graph) HOURLY CHARTS FOREX EUR=,22 ( , , , , ) Pair currently toying back with LT daily Downtrenline off 1992 (synthetic charts: today). Medium Term: = broken monthly Downtrendline off 1992 on same charts. The pair is currently trying to regain the channel off and toying with bullish Flag top off (see graph): 1 st Support area at /.3411 (daily envelope bottom/ weekly projection band bottom), with next levels at (current reaction low off daily Bollinger bottom), ahead of /.3367 (38.2% to daily projection band bottom/ previous 2006 high + daily Flag bottom off year high), where pause expected. Resistance area at /.82 (Short Term high hourly + daily envelope top/ daily Bollinger midline), with next level at /.3503 (weekly envelope top/ daily projection band top) and /.3520 (daily bullish Flag top off / 29 high), where pause favored KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research /.3411 (daily envelope bottom/ see above) /.3482 (daily envelope top / daily Bollinger midli ) (current reaction low off daily Bollinger /.3503 (weekly envelope top/ see above) bottom) /.3367 (38.2% to see above/ /.3520 (see above/ high/ 29 high) high + see above)

2 USD/JPY: (122.00): In channel off with new reaction high above bullish Flag top off (see graph) FOREX JPY=,22 ( , , , , ) i Move above bullish Flag top off sent the pair to a new recovery high, above (daily Downtrendline off year high), with 2 nd target of daily Double Bottom off having been met (121.86) 1 st Resistance area at /.20 (new recovery high off / year high), with next levels at /.35 (daily envelope top/ 61.8% to ), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at (daily Bollinger top + daily projection band top), where downwards reaction favored to set in. 1 st support area at /.71 (daily/ weekly envelope bottoms), with next levels at (daily Medium Term Moving Average ) and /.35 (see graph: channel bottom/ daily projection band bottom) = daily Flag bottom off : key for Medium Term development /.71 (daily / weekly envelope bottoms) (daily MT MA ) /.35 (see graph: channel bottom/ see above) /.20 (recovery high off / year high) /.35 (daily envelope top/ 61.8% to ) /.90 (daily Bollinger top + see above/ weekly envelope top) KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2

3 EUR/GBP: (.6782) Currently toying back with.6780 (neckline of a Short Term Double Top: see graph) FOREX EURGBP=,22 ( , , , , ) Tested weekly Long Term Downtrendline off 2003 high (.6851 this week), with sharp drop from there, with pair currently toying back with.6780 (see graph: neckline Double Top: risk would be towards.6718/.03). Needs to sustain back above.6807/.11 (weekly envelope top/ 31 high) to negate current negative bias. 1 st support area at.6771 (Short term low hourly + daily envelope bottom), with next levels at.6764 (last week low), ahead of.6754/.48 ( 25 + April 18 lows + daily Bollinger bottom/ reaction low off.6867) and.6740 (38.2%.6536 to Day MA ): difficult to sustain through tough on 1 st tests 1 st Resistance area at.6796/.97 (daily Medium Term Moving Average / daily envelope top), with next levels at.6807/.11 (breakdown daily 22 + weekly envelope top / 31 high)..6816/.17 = previous reaction high hourly/ Short Term breakdown weekly charts: suspect tough on 1 st attempts (daily envelope bottom + ST low hourly).6764/.54 (last week low/ 25 low + April 18 low + daily Bollinger bottom).6748/.40 (reaction low off.6867/ 38.2%.6536 to see above).6796/.97 (daily MT MA / daily envelope top).6804/.07 (daily Bollinger midline/ breakdown daily + weekly envelope top).6811/.17 ( 31 high/ see above) KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3

4 EUR/JPY: (164.07) Back above the neckline of a Double Bottom: (163.02: see graph) FOREX EURJPY=,22 ( , , , , ) New multi year high highlights Doji, but pair currently back above the neckline of a Double Bottom (163.02: see graph). 1 st Resistance area at /.29 (last week high/ new multi year high), with next levels at /.50 (daily projection band top / daily envelope top + daily Bollinger top): tough on 1 st tests. If wrong, next levels at /.57 (2 nd Irregular B off / potential target of weekly channel break off Nov 2003 low), where reaction expected. 1 st Support area at (daily Short Term Moving Average ), with next levels at /.62 (daily envelope bottom/ daily Medium Term Moving Average ), ahead of /.29 (weekly envelope bottom/ daily Bollinger midline) / = daily Long Term Moving Average / current reaction low off : sustained trade below would confirm overextended status for and risk of larger correction (daily ST MA ) /.62 (daily MT MA / daily envelope bottom) /.29 (weekly envelope bottom/ daily Bollinger midline) /.29 (last week high/ new multi year high) /.50 (see above/ daily envelope top + daily Bollinger top) /.57 (Irregular B limit off / see above) KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4

5 Brussels Research (KBC) Global Sales Force Piet Lammens Peter Wuyts Brussels Didier Hanesse Corporate Desk Peter Fontaine Commercial Desk Bob Maes Institutional Desk Dublin Research (IIB) Austin Hughes London Prague Research (CSOB) Frankfurt Jan Cermak Paris Zdenek Safka New York Jan Bures Singapore Bratislava Research (CSOB) Marek Gabris Prague Silvia Cechovicova Bratislava Warsaw Research (Kredytbank) Budapest Piotr Radzewicz Warsaw Budapest Research (K&H) Gyorgy Barcza Our reports are also available on: This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice. KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5