# Stochastic Oscillator.

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1 Stochastic Oscillator. By Jay Lakhani George Lane was the originator of the stochastic indicator in the 1960 s; the indicator tracks the market momentum. Lane observed that as prices rise in an up trend, closing prices tend to be closer to the upper end of bars and in a down trend closing prices tend to be nearer the lower end of bars. Overview The stochastic indicator is: A momentum oscillator that can give a warning sign of strength or weakness in the market, often well ahead of the final turning point. Based on the assumption that when a stock is rising it tends to close near the high and when a stock is falling it tends to close near its lows. The stochastic values simply represent the position of the market on a percentage basis versus its range over the previous n-period sessions. The percentage scale runs from zero to 100% The Stochastic Indicator shows where a security's price closed in relation to its price range over the specified time period. The indicator consists of two lines: %K compares the latest closing price to the recent trading range. %D is a signal line calculated by smoothing %K. Parameters: Overall Period (3) - the number of periods used to determine the highest high and lowest low. %D MA Period (14) - the number of periods used to determine the moving average for the %D value. Calculation The following formula is used to calculate the Stochastic Oscillator: %K = (recent close - lowest low) / (highest_high - lowest_low) The situation is much more complicated, really, as there are SMA of %K, SMA of this SMA and some other derivatives that people use. SK = SMA(3) of K SD = SMA(3) SK You do not need to learn the full ins and outs of the stochastic parameters and its calculation. Most advanced charting packages will do this for you

3 Different types of divergence 1. Bearish - The price moves higher, but stochastic suggests a slowing trend. You will see higher price highs and lower stochastic highs, and is a sure sign that a price correction is not far off. 2. Bullish - The lower lows in price action show a divergence with higher stochastic lows. As stochastic shows the market becoming less oversold, the market itself fails to confirm this notion and continues on down. However, this is just indicative that price will invariably shift course and follow stochastic s lead.

4 3. Bullish - In a downtrending market, changes in price establish lower price highs, all the while stochastic reflects the market becoming less oversold (higher stochastic highs), signalling a likely reversal in the works.

5 4. Bullish- As price achieves higher lows, stochastic reflects a last ditch effort on the part of sellers to continue the downtrend (lower stochastic lows). This exhaustion, combined with new buying pressure, as reflected in upward price direction, portends the potential reversal of the downtrend. You can apply these observations to any timeframe. Sometimes, a particular timeframe will display one of the above characteristics more so than the others. The higher the timeframe, the better the chance for a longer-term trend reversal. It is important when looking at lesser timeframe charts to keep the big picture in mind. A divergence between price behaviour and stochastic movement on a five-minute chart may provide only a relatively short period of change in the attitude of price.

6 Putting it together An Iron Clad Trade using Confluence of Indicators I will now look at a chart, with confluence of indicators, to pull the trigger. The stochastic indicator as a starting point. GBP Daily Chart 8 th July 05 to 15 th Aug 05. Looking at the above chart, you had so many confluences of indicators to go long on 26 th July 2005, with the price at a bottom at Since than GBP has risen by nearly 900 pips. This was a great position trade to be in. In my book The Way To Trade Forex I always say that you must have at least 3 reasons why you should pull the trigger. In this case we certainly had so many triggers, you just had to fill your boots! Some of the reasons were; 1. Bullish Divergence Stochastic 2. Bullish Divergence RSI 3. Bullish divergence MACD 4. Double Bottom 5. Support at a Pivot point, repeated bounce. Good Trading Jay Lakhani

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