AN ANALYSIS OF FORECASTED PROFIT YEARS IN PETROLEUM INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA. By: MISYKAT FAHADA M.NUR

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1 AN ANALYSIS OF FORECASTED PROFIT YEARS IN PETROLEUM INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA By: MISYKAT FAHADA M.NUR Undergraduate Program School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung i

2 AN ANALYSIS OF FORECASTED PROFIT YEARS IN PETROLEUM INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA VALIDATION PAGE By: MISYKAT FAHADA M.NUR Undergraduate Program School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung Validate By (Ir.Drs.H. Arson Aliludin, SE, DEA) ii

3 ABSTRACT Petroleum industry is the biggest economy vectors now. None could defeat. The big money stays around this industry. High paid technicians are their assets. The biggest polution is coming from this industry. Due to those reasons, author try to trace back how much the important of this business for the company. Author wants to calculate, using linear regression analysis, to find out how much forecasted profit in next five years, Author break down into three puzzles. The first one is cost structure derived from FQR given by BP Migas officially. This list summarize all important numbers needed to define how much percentage the fixed and variable part in, definitely all mixed costs. The production is given too, in that list. Linear regression is the best way to describe price movement along 30 years to find the b, incremental change over the time. Thus plug the constanta as a. Finally profit is the process of revenue, production volume times price, deduct by expense or total cost. Keywords: Regression Analysis, Cost, Production, Price, Profit iii

4 ABSTRAK Industri minyak adalah industri terbesar sekarang. Tidak ada yang lebih besar. Uang dalam jumlah besar berputar di industri ini. Teknisi bergaji besar adalah salah satu aset mereka. Polusi banyak dihasilkan di industri ini. Atas alasan itu, saya berusaha seberapa penting kah industri bagi perusahaan. Menggunakan regresi linear, saya hendak mencari berapa prediksi profit untuk tahun Saya membagi proses ini menjadi tiga bagian. Yang pertama adalah struktur biaya yang diambil dari FQR, kemudian membaginya menjadi biaya tetap dan biaya varaible. Volume produksi juga ada di dalamnya. Analisis harga mengunakan regresi linear untuk mencari nilai b pengubah terhadapa X dan a atau konstanta. Akhirnya profit adalah proses penjualan, harga dikalikan produksi, dikurangi total biaya. Keywords: Regresi linear, biaya, produksi, harga, profit iv

5 FOREWORD Assalamualaikum Wr. Wb. Alhamdulillah, first of all I would like to thank to Allah SWT due to power given to complete this final project. The final project is a requirement for bachelor degree of Business and Management in Institut Teknologi Bandung. The project is titled AN ANALYSIS OF FORECASTED PROFIT YEARS IN PETROLEUM INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA. I would like to say thank you for those who have given contribution and helped me to finish this project as follows: 1. My Lovely Family who always support and pray for me. I have faced my bipolar disorder s treatment while finished this project in same time. My father and mother are two best partner accompanying me in that critical time. 2. Mr. Arson Aliludin as my supervisor, who helped and guided me to make better report through revision and direction. 3. BP Migas who gives me opportunity to gather data though long process had been faced before. 4. The entire academic staff and lecturers in SBM-ITB, who gave me knowledge during my study. 5. All my friends at SBM-ITB class of Wassalamualaikum Wr. Wb. Bandung, August 2010 Misykat F.M. Nur v

6 LIST OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT... iii ABSTRAK... iv FOREWORD... v LIST OF CONTENTS... vi LIST OF TABLES... ix LIST OF FIGURES... xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Background Problem Identification Objectives Research Importance Problem Boundaries Systematical Writing... 3 CHAPTER 2 THEORITICAL FOUNDATION Cost FQR Cost Structure Direct Material Cost Direct Labor Cost Fixed Cost Variable Cost Mixed Cost Frequency Distribution Mean, Media, Modus, Range Variance and Standard Deviation Regression Method Simple Linear Regression Pearson Correlation Coefficient Polynomial Regression... 7 vi

7 2.4 Income Statement... 7 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY Methodology Literature Study Problem Identification Data Collection Classification and Calculation Analysis Conclusion... 9 CHAPTER 4 DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Data Collection Production Volume in FQR Cost Structure in FQR Petroleum Price Profit over Past Five Years Cost Analysis Exploration Cost Linear Regression Development Cost Linear Regression Production Cost Linear Regression Administrative Cost Linear Regression Total Cost Linear Regression Production Volume Analysis Crude Oil Natural Gas Overall Oil and Gas Fuel Price Analysis Analysis of Historical Movement Linear Regression Model Analysis of Forecasted Profit CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION& RECOMMENDATION Conclusion Recommendation vii

8 REFERENCES APPENDINCE viii

9 LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1 Production Volume Table 4.2 Expenditure Summary Table 4.3 Crude Oil Price Movement Table 4.4 Natural Gas Price Movement Table 4.5 Profit made in Petroleum Industry in years Table 4.6 Expenditure Summary in Petroleum Industry Table 4.7 Table of exploration cost to production in linear regression Table 4.8 Table of development cost to production in linear regression Table 4.9 Table of production cost to production in linear regression Table 4.10 Table of administration cost to production in linear regression Table 4.11 Table of total cost to production in linear regression Table 4.12 Table of production of crude oil over time in linear regression Table 4.13 Table of production of natural gas over time in linear regression Table 4.14 Table of production of oil and gas over time in linear regression Table 4.15 Calculation and linear Regression over Crude Oil Table 4.16 Calculation and linear Regression over Natural Gas Table 4.17 Calculation Pearson over Crude Oil Table 4.18 Calculation Pearson over Natural Gas Table 4.19 Forecasted Production years of Crude Oil Table 4.20 Forecasted Production years of Natural Gas Table 4.21 Forecasted Production years of Both Table 4.22 Forecasted Price years of Crude Oil Analysis ix

10 Table 4.23 Forecasted Price years of Natural Gas Analysis Table 4.24 Forecasted Total Cost for years Table 4.25 Forecasted Profit for years x

11 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1 Methodology... 8 Figure 4.1 Graph of production volume and total cost Figure 4.2 Graph of total production level in BP Migas Figure 4.3 Diagram of Problem Solving xi