Global Climate Change: The Evidence, Challenges and Our Options

Transcription

1 Global Climate Change: The Evidence, Challenges and Our Options Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Distinguished University Professor, Geography Director, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University Lonnie Thompson Henry Brecher Mary Davis Paolo Gabrielli Don Kenny Ping-Nan Lin Bruce Plateau, Victor Zagorodnov Antarctic Peninsula Ice Core Paleoclimate Research Group Dasuopu, Postdoctoral Researchers: Emilie Beaudon Stacy Porter Roxana Sierra Graduate Student: Donaldi Permana Himalayas Funding provided by: NSF: Paleoclimate and Polar Programs NASA: Earth Sciences (Glaciology) NOAA: Paleoclimatology Gary Comer Foundation Akron Roundtable, Akron, Ohio, March 19, 2015 Crawford Point, Greenland

2 Global Climate Change: The Evidence, Challenges and Our Options Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Distinguished University Professor, Geography Director, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University Ice Core Paleoclimate Research Group Lonnie Thompson Henry Brecher Mary Davis Paolo Gabrielli Don Kenny Ping-Nan Lin Victor Zagorodnov Postdoctoral Researchers: Emilie Beaudon Stacy Porter Roxana Sierra Graduate Student: Donaldi Permana Funding provided by: NSF: Paleoclimate and Polar Programs NASA: Earth Sciences (Glaciology) NOAA: Paleoclimatology Gary Comer Foundation

3 Key Points Earth s climate is changing - the world is warming that debate is over! Weather and climate are very different. Changes in the climate system are driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Global Climate Change (GCC) involves many changes - not just temperature. (precipitation, sea level, ocean acidification, ecosystems, glaciers are melting) Human activities that release carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) & other Greenhouse Gases, as well as aerosols (particles), into Earth s atmosphere are the dominant cause of warming of our planet since the 1950s. Recent scientific assessments highlight the role of human activities. The world is challenged by its growing need for energy what are our options? How we choose to power our planet going forward and how rapidly we make the necessary changes will determine our collective future.

4 Our Earth is warming! Environmental conditions are changing! Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index 2005, 2010, 2014 warmest years on record 0.95 C 1.70 F Year A.D. Relative to the mean

5 Our Earth is warming! Environmental conditions are changing! Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index Air Temperature Changes 0.93 ºC 2005, 2010, 2014 warmest years on record 0.95 C 1.70 F Year A.D. Relative to the mean

6 Climate and Weather are Quite Different! Climate is what you expect Weather is what you get Akron: 29.4 o F for Feb ( ) avg Akron: 16.0 o F for Feb 2015 The dog walker is the climate The dog is the weather

7 February 2015 Earth s second warmest February Land & Ocean temperature departures for February 2015 Base period:

8 Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru Photo: Lonnie G Thompson

9 Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru 2002 Photo: Lonnie G Thompson

10 Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru Photo: Lonnie G. Thompson

11 Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru Photo: Lonnie G. Thompson

12 2010

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14 Source: NOAA and Scripps

15 IPCC GHG Emission Scenarios for 2100 AD Dome C CO 2 remains in the atmosphere for decades to millennia EPICA Dome C ice core extends back through eight glacial and interglacial stages (800,000 years) recording changes in the composition of Earth's atmosphere 500 Today

16 IPCC GHG Emission Scenarios for 2100 AD CO 2 remains in the atmosphere for decades to millennia Today

17 The fraction of CO 2 remaining in the air, after emission by fossil fuel burning, declines rapidly at first, but 1/3 remains in the air after a century and 1/5 after a millennium (Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, , 2007).

18 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Huber and Knutti, Nature Geoscience, 2012

19 So what actions will give us the Best Possible Scenario. 1) Put a price on carbon (tax or cap) 2) Use efficiency standards, incentives & restrictions on harmful practices 3) Fund research & development of new technologies - speed the transition 4) Prepare to adapt - anticipatory adaptation is cheapest (esp. for expensive infrastructure); international aid may be needed It is cheaper to prepare than to repair 5) Geoengineering for impacts not mitigated or adapted to (but proceed with caution) 5) Be prepared to adjust the response; review and amend the plan

20 How the world chooses to supply the power it needs will determine in large measure Earth s future climate. This is a global problem and will require global-scale solutions. Our options include: Mitigation (increased efficiencies and fuel switching) Adaptation (taking measures to reduce the adverse impacts) Suffering is possible if these approaches are insufficient Our greatest challenges of the 21 st Century will be (1) learning how to get along with each other and (2) learning how to get along with our Planet. These two challenges deal with human behavior and are closely related!

21 Earth For Global Climate Change --- Nature is the Time Keeper!