PKF CONSULTING AND CBRE HOTELS OUTLOOK. For the Canadian Lodging Sector 2015/2016

Transcription

1 PKF CONSULTING AND CBRE HOTELS OUTLOOK For the Canadian Lodging Sector 2015/2016 September 15, 2015

2

3 On pace to exceed original forecasts FIFA / PanAM games impacts Month of June was record setting across the country Prospects for overall travel growth in 2016 TRANSITION FROM RESOURCE MARKET

4 Economic and Travel Outlooks

5 National Economic Outlook / $1.58 $1.54 $1.59 $1.63 $1.66 $1.70 Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada, Canadian Outlook Summer 2015, Scotiabank Group Global Forecast Update 2015; CIBC World Markets Monthly FX Outlook, 2015; RBC Economic and Financial Market Outlook 2015 Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at $1.74 $1.77 $ f 2016p Real GDP 2.4% 1.4% % Change 2.2% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% % Change

6 National Travel Outlook 2015/16 Overnight Travel 2014 Act ual 2015 Forecast 2016 Projection Business t ravel dom est ic 2.5% 0.3% 2.7% Pleasure travel domestic 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% Total domestic travel 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% U.S. Travel 1.1% 7.5% 3.2% Overseas travel 9.3% 5.0% 4.1% Total overnight travel 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% National accommodation demand growth 3.2% 1.0% 2.4% Source: Canadian Tourism Research Institute, Conference Board of Canada, Fall 2015 Forecast Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

7 Regional Travel Outlooks - % Growth Western Canada Central Canada Atlantic Canada 2.4% 2.2% 2.7% 3.0% 1.9% 2.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 2015f 2016f 2017f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2015f 2016f 2017f Source: Canadian Tourism Research Institute, Conference Board of Canada, Preliminary Fall 2015 Forecast Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

8 National Market & Financial Outlooks 2015/2016

9 National Hotel Investment Volume Price per room 2015 YE Forecast

10 Buyer Profile Private Investors Public/ REITS Foreign Capital

11 National Supply & Demand Outlook Supply & Demand Growth National Occupancy 0.6% 1.5% 1.3% 3.2% 1.0% 2.4% 2014 Actual 64% 2015 Forecast 64% 2016 Projection 65% F 2016P F 2016P Supply Demand Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

12 National ADR, RevPar & Bottom Line Outlook National ADR Growth 2014 Actual 3.7% 2015 Forecast 3.9% 2016 Projection 3.5% National RevPar Growth 2014 Actual 6.3% 2015 Forecast 3.4% 2016 Projection 4.7% Adjusted Net Operating Income /Available Room ($000's) 13.5% $ % $ % $ F 2016P Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

13

14

15 Atlantic Canada Hotel Investment

16 Atlantic Canada Supply & Demand Outlook Supply & Demand Growth Occupancy 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2014 Actual 58% 1.2% 0.6% 2015 Forecast 58% 2016 Projection 59% 0.0% F 2016P F 2016P Supply Demand Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

17 Atlantic Canada ADR, RevPar & Bottom Line Outlook Atlantic Canada ADR Growth 2014 Actual 3.1% 2015 Forecast 3.0% 2016 Projection 3.0% Atlantic Canada RevPar Growth 2014 Actual 2.9% 2015 Forecast 1.8% 2016 Projection 4.4% Adjusted Net Operating Income /Available Room ($000's) 0.1% $ % $ % $ F 2016P Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

18 SOME GROWTH EXPECTED IN 2015 & 2016

19

20 Western Canada Hotel Investment

21 Western Canada Supply & Demand Outlook Supply & Demand Growth Occupancy 1.6% 2.1% 2.0% 3.4% 3.0% 2014 Actual 65% 2015 Forecast 64% 2016 Projection 64% 0.0% F 2016P F 2016P Supply Demand Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

22 Western Canada ADR, RevPar & Bottom Line Outlook Western Canada ADR Growth 2014 Actual 4.0% 2015 Forecast 3.0% 2016 Projection 3.0% Western Canada RevPar Growth 2014 Actual 5.7% 2015 Forecast 0.9% 2016 Projection 4.1% Adjusted Net Operating Income /Available Room ($000's) 11.3% -0.2% 6.0% $15.4 $14.5 $ F 2016P Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

23 OVERALL NUMBERS COULDN T BE MORE MISLEADING

24

25 Central Canada Hotel Investment

26 Central Canada Supply & Demand Outlook Supply & Demand Growth Occupancy 0.9% 0.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2014 Actual 64% 2015 Forecast 65% 2016 Projection 66% -0.5% F 2016P F 2016P Supply Demand Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

27 Central Canada ADR, RevPar & Bottom Line Outlook Central Canada ADR Growth 2014 Actual 3.2% 2015 Forecast 5.0% 2016 Projection 4.0% Central Canada RevPar Growth 2014 Actual 6.4% 2015 Forecast 6.1% 2016 Projection 5.3% Adjusted Net Operating Income /Available Room ($000's) 18.1% $ % 10.8% $10.1 $ F 2016P Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

28 CITY WIDE OCCUPANCY IN TORONTO, MONTREAL AND OTTAWA ALL OVER 70%

29 Major Market Outlooks

30 Major Market* Outlooks RevPar Projection RevPAR Ranking 8.0% 4.0% Vancouver Toronto Halifax Niagara Falls Ottawa Montreal Quebec City Winnipeg St. John s Saskatoon Calgary Edmonton Regina Vancouver $126 Ottawa $116 Montreal $114 Toronto $107 St. John s $107 Quebec City $ % -4.0% Calgary $104 Saskatoon $99 Niagara Falls $97-8.0% Halifax $ % > 5% RevPar Growth 4-5% RevPar Growth < 1% RevPar Growth Edmonton $83 Winnipeg $81 Regina $73 * Major Markets refer to Greater Metro Areas Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

31 National Financial Outlook Beyond 2015

32 National Financial Outlook Beyond 2015 Adjusted Net Operating Income Per Available Room ($000's) $ % (26%) $10.5 $7.5 $8.9 $ % $8.4 (1%) 14% $10.1 $14.5 (11%) $7.5 30% 40% $14.1 $ % $10.5 Central Canada Western Canada Atlantic NOTE: Adjusted Net Operating Income is defined as income after property taxes, insurance, management fees, franchise fees, and capital reserves; but before rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. Source: PKF Consulting Inc., a CBRE Company with reproduction and use of information subject to Disclaimer and Restrictions as detailed at

33 David Larone Brian Stanford Fran Hohol Erin O Brien Rebecca Godfrey David Ferguson Kirstin Hallett Nicole Nguyen Robert Sedore Gregory Hives Lauren Arnold Kailey Gomez Carol Lopes JoAnne Orr Bill Stone Greg Kwong Brian Flood Deborah Borotsik Marc-Aurele Mailloux-Gagnon Cindy Schoenauer Karina Toome Vanessa Boland