Australian Wheat Export Market Update

Transcription

1 Australian Wheat Export Market Update

2 CBH GROUP Our business OUR CUSTOMERS Flour millers, Maltsters Feed manufacturers Food processors OUR GROWERS 4500 members 10 million tonnes production average Largest Co-op in Australia PROCESSING 7 flour mills: Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia 1 million tonne demand 70% from Australia STORAGE & HANDLING 195 sites 4 ports 20 million tonnes storage capacity SHIPPING Load 10 million tonnes per year Stevedoring Charter 2 million tonnes MARKETING & TRADING Market more than 50% of all grain from WA Australia wide accumulation Export to Asia, Middle East, Europe Largest wheat exporter in Australia

3 CBH GROUP Integrated Supply Chain Receive & store 20 million tonnes grain storage 195 grain receival sites in Western Australia Continuous investment in world class infrastructure Protect grain quality Transport $175 million invested in rail fleet to move grain to port 25 locomotives & 574 wagons Dedicated road transport to support rail operations Shipping 4 strategically located ports 15.8 million tonnes annual shipping capacity Growing capacity to meet demand

4 CBH GROUP Ports

5 CBH GROUP Marketing Australia s Largest Grain Exporter

6 CBH GROUP Australian Grain Growing Regions Grain Growing Areas CBH GRAIN Offices Queensland Western Australia South Australia New South Wales Victoria

7 AUSTRALIAN BULK WHEAT EXPORT MARKET UPDATE 14/15 National Market Share Source: ACF

8 AUSTRALIAN BULK WHEAT EXPORT MARKET UPDATE 14/15 Export Numbers Total Exports for Marketing Year 14.08M mt WA 8.4M mt or 60% SA 4.0M mt or 28% VIC 750k NSW 830k QLD 100k Strong export numbers out of Western Australia and South Australia driven by healthy production and high shipping slot premiums Below average export numbers for Vic/Nsw/Qld due to drought conditions and below average production. Source: ABS

9 AUSTRALIAN WHEAT EXPORT MARKET UPDATE 14/15 Western Australia and South Australia Market Review Source: ACF

10 14/15 AUSTRALIAN WHEAT EXPORT MARKET UPDATE Quality and Destinations Year characterised by higher prevalence of hard wheat as opposed to lower protein grades out of South Australia and Western Australia Typically hard wheat makes up 20% of Western Australian production 14/15 hard wheat production was approximately 34% in Western Australia Primary destinations for Australian wheat: Indonesia, China and Vietnam Year on year reduction in exports to middle eastern regions Saudi Arabia, Iran & Iraq.

11 14/15 AUSTRALIAN WHEAT EXPORT MARKET UPDATE Long Term Agreements Major change to the environment in which marketers operate in A minimum of 10 million tonnes allocated to marketers in a take or pay arrangement A residual 6 million tonnes allocated to marketers not participating in LTA on a first in first serve basis. First in first serve premiums similar to LTA Capacity not tradeable but can be handed back to CBH. Take or pay component is refunded if another marketer utilizes the dropped capacity in the same shipping zone in the same year Take or pay premiums range between $5 to $9 depending on shipment month. Premium consists of a Long Term Capacity Deposit of $4

12 2015/16 Seasonal update

13 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE El Nino Occurs when ocean temperatures in Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean become substantially warmer than average causing a shift in prevailing trade winds. Reduced Rainfall Warmer Temperatures Increased Frost risk Data from the late 90 s to present, 3 out 6 El Nino years have produced significantly reduced yields in Wheat (94/95, 02/03 & 06/07

14 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE El Nino

15 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE Seeding and Initial Months

16 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE Mid-Year Dryness Below average rainfall in May. Reasonable rainfall through NSW for June, WA below average.

17 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE Recovery

18 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE Predicted Yields

19 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE Western Australia Crop Ratings

20 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE El Nino? Whilst rainfall in July and August have helped crops substantially the bureau is maintaining its El Nino foreceast El Nino indications strongest since Higher potential of dry finish which could trim current production forecasts If dry weather prevails then we are likely to see higher protein & higher screenings from crops

21 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE WA Wheat Estimates Geraldton 2M mt Will be starting harvest in the next couple of weeks. Forecast for currently for above average production Kwinana 4.5M mt Overall good conditions however southern areas will need some follow-up rainfall to maintain production forecasts. Albany 1.2M mt Crop conditions are positive at this stage with small amounts of rainfall needed to maintain current estimates Esperance 1.3M mt - Consistent rainfall this season should yield above average production Total WA Wheat Production forecast at 9M mt 14/15 WA Wheat Production 8.5M mt 5 year average 7.5M mt

22 2015/16 SEASONAL UPDATE South Australia and East Coast Estimates South Australia 4.5mmt - Good potential although recent dryness will trim forecasts as crops are at a high water usage stage of development. Harvest on track for mid-october Victoria 2.6mmt - Eastern Victoria looking promising however central and north western areas are patchy and at critical periods with dry weather prevailing New South Wales 7mmt - Finishing rains will confirm a significant turnaround in production year on year Queensland 1.1mmt - Rains in the tail end will assist yield with a minor improvement year on year Total Australian Production: 24.2M mt 14/15 Production 23M mt 5 year average 25M mt