Voting with their Feet - Actual Quality of Life Rankings in Canada

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1 September 2014 Voting with their Feet - Actual Quality of Life Rankings in Canada One of the surest ways for a media publication or think tank to make headlines is to publish a new quality of life ranking of Canadian communities. These rankings typically include a mix of different criteria, such as employment growth, housing prices, and weather patterns, and then use these criteria to devise a rating system that supposedly shows which places are the best and worst to live in. While these rankings are very successful at generating headlines, they are ultimately based on an arbitrary formula that may or may not do a good job of approximating the diverse preferences of the Canadian population. But there is actually a much more straightforward way to look at this issue that does not require an arbitrary formula. The communities that are most desirable as a place to live are, quite simply, the communities that attract the most new residents compared to the number of former residents who move away. Canada s Actual Quality of Life Rankings are revealed by people voting with their feet. Actual migration patterns are also the most holistic approach because they embody all of the location factors that matter to actual residents, including employment opportunities. For example, Vancouver Island is renowned for its natural beauty, recreational opportunities and mild (by Canadian standards) climate. But the attractiveness of Island communities as a place to live is diminished if there are relatively few opportunities to earn a decent living. On the other hand, and without naming names, there are other Canadian communities that provide tremendous opportunities to make money, but few people would voluntarily live there without such monetary incentive. Rather than arbitrarily weighing employment opportunities and climate versus housing prices and the number of family doctors, the rankings in this report rely on Canadian residents to make their own decisions about which factors are most important. By the way, it is completely normal for preferences about where to live to change significantly over the course of a lifetime, depending on whether interest is driven by job opportunities, the quality of the school system, recreational amenities, or proximity to health care facilities. Brief Explanation of the Data The data used in this analysis is from Statistics Canada's 2011 National Household Survey (NHS), which is the voluntary survey that replaced the former long-form Census. It tracks migration based on a comparison of where residents were living in 2011 compared to where they were living as of the 2006 Census. It only includes people who lived in Canada in both 2006 and The reason that international migration is not included is that people who left Canada after 2006 were not around to complete the NHS in We know how many people moved to Canada from elsewhere in the world, but we do not know how many Canadian residents moved abroad. (Data on international inmigration is shown later in this report). We also cannot count people who moved after 2006 but passed away before 2011, and note that people who moved multiple

2 Page 2 of 6 times after 2006 are counted only according to their location as of Data is available only for urban areas. These include Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) that have a core population of at least 100,000 and include surrounding municipalities, rural areas and/or First Nations reserves (such as Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal), as well as Census Agglomerations (CAs) that have a core population of at least 10,000 and similarly include surrounding areas. The Island Coastal Economic Trust (ICET) region contains no CMAs, but 7 CAs. In total, Canada has 147 urban areas that are included in the analysis. Actual Quality of Life Rankings The table below shows the net movement of people within Canada between 2006 and Each of the urban areas includes the central city listed in the table as well as surrounding communities. Top Ten Communities for New Residents 1. Ottawa-Gatineau, ON/QC 16, Edmonton, AB 16, Kelowna, BC 10, Oshawa, ON 8, Victoria, BC 7, St. John's, NL 6, Chilliwack, BC 4, Saskatoon, SK 4, Barrie, ON 3, Okotoks, AB 3,515 Bottom Ten Communities for New Residents 138. Prince George, BC -2, Chatham-Kent, ON -2, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, ON -3, Calgary, AB -3, London, ON -4, Windsor, ON -8, Vancouver, BC -8, Winnipeg, MB -9, Montréal, QC -52, Toronto, ON -70,365 ICET Communities 13. Nanaimo, BC 3, Courtenay, BC 2, Parksville, BC 1, Duncan, BC 1, Campbell River, BC 1, Powell River, BC Port Alberni, BC 465 The Ottawa and Edmonton metropolitan areas were the two biggest winners in the net migration rankings for 2011, each adding more than 16,000 more residents from the rest of Canada than they lost. The cities at the bottom of the list may be surprising and include some of Canada s largest metro areas. These regions are typically major magnets for international immigrants, but looking only at movement within Canada, it is abundantly clear that Canadians are choosing to leave many of the largest metro areas in the country. Toronto and Montreal combined contributed more than 120,000 residents to the reset of the country while Vancouver and Calgary also ranked in the bottom 10. All seven ICET communities are on the positive side of the ledger, with a significant net influx of new residents from elsewhere in Canada. The Nanaimo and Courtenay areas were just outside the national top 10 while Port Alberni, which one publication labeled the worst place to live in Canada, attracted 465 more residents than it lost. There is no better demonstration of just how out of touch some of these ranking systems are with the actual location decisions made by Canadians. 1 All data in this report is from Statistics Canada's 2011 National Household Survey, Table X

3 Page 3 of 6 Rankings for Prime Working Years Given the favourable results seen above for all communities in the ICET region, a natural follow-up question is whether the region is simply attracting a new wave of retirees who will contribute relatively little to economic activity (other than through their purchasing power). Top Ten Communities for New Residents, Age Ottawa-Gatineau, ON/QC 9, Oshawa, ON 5, Edmonton, AB 5, Calgary, AB 5, Kelowna, BC 3, Wood Buffalo, AB 3, Chilliwack, BC 2, St. John's, NL 1, Okotoks, AB 1, Barrie, ON 1,495 Bottom Ten Communities, Age St. Catharines-Niagara, ON -4, Québec, QC -4, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, ON -4, Sherbrooke, QC -4, Halifax, NS -4, London, ON -6, Windsor, ON -6, Winnipeg, MB -7, Toronto, ON -22, Montréal, QC -31,320 ICET Communities, Age Courtenay, BC 1, Nanaimo, BC Campbell River, BC Powell River, BC Port Alberni, BC Duncan, BC Parksville, BC 45 This page shows the results only for those in the age range, as of This range is chosen because those younger than 25 are either children and live wherever their parents put them, or young adults who are more transient and often move multiple times for postsecondary education, in pursuit of a first job or simply to try living somewhere new. After age 25 people start transitioning into their core working and family-raising years and are motivated to live in whatever community provides the mix of lifestyle and income potential that they desire. The Ottawa-Gatineau metro area also ranks first for the age group by a wide margin. Calgary, which ranks in the bottom 10 nationally for all age groups, is in the top 10 for those in their prime working years. Wood Buffalo, home of the oil sands in northern Alberta, also ranks in the top 10. Montreal and Toronto are in a class of their own in exporting Canadians of all ages, including those in their prime working years. And despite Vancouver Island's reputation as attracting only retirees, all seven urban areas in the ICET region saw positive net migration for those in the prime working years.

4 Page 4 of 6 Age 50+ Rankings Rankings for the 50+ age range are more reflective of pure quality of life as employment becomes less and less of a pressing concern past age 50. Top Ten Communities for New Residents, Age 50+ Top Ten Communities for New Residents, Age Kelowna, BC 3, Victoria, BC 2, Chilliwack, BC 2, St. Catharines-Niagara, ON 2, Parksville, BC 2, Courtenay, BC 1, Penticton, BC 1, Joliette, QC 1, Kawartha Lakes, ON 1, Vernon, BC 1,420 Bottom Ten Communities, Age Halifax, NS Prince George, BC -1, Wood Buffalo, AB -1, Winnipeg, MB -2, Ottawa-Gatineau, ON/QC -3, Edmonton, AB -4, Vancouver, BC -10, Calgary, AB -11, Montréal, QC -22, Toronto, ON -34,490 ICET Communities, Age Parksville, BC 2, Courtenay, BC 1, Nanaimo, BC 1, Duncan, BC 1, Campbell River, BC Port Alberni, BC Powell River, BC 440 Communities in the ICET region shine brightest in the national 50+ rankings with the Parksville and Courtenay areas both ranking in the top 10. British Columbia has seven communities in the top 10 while Nanaimo and Duncan are both in the top 15. Calgary, Edmonton and Wood Buffalo all rank in the national bottom 10 for age 50+, suggesting that many of the younger residents attracted for employment opportunities are not sticking around in their golden years.

5 Page 5 of 6 International In-Migration To be fair to the largest metro areas in the country, their economic and cultural dynamism is enhanced by attracting the vast majority of international in-migrants to Canada, shown in the table below. Note this is not the same thing as international immigration as some of the people counted in this report could be Canadian citizens returning from living abroad or foreign citizens moving to Canada as temporary residents without any intention to become permanent residents. Top Ten Communities for International In-Migrants 1. Toronto, ON 343, Montréal, QC 189, Vancouver, BC 171, Calgary, AB 74, Edmonton, AB 57, Ottawa-Gatineau, ON/QC 45, Winnipeg, MB 42, Hamilton, ON 19, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, ON 15, London, ON 13,840 Bottom Ten Communities for International In-Migrants 138. Matane, QC Temiskaming Shores, ON Alma, QC Baie-Comeau, QC Dolbeau-Mistassini, QC Elliot Lake, ON Cowansville, QC Lachute, QC Bay Roberts, NL Ingersoll, ON 20 ICET Communities, International In-Migrants 33. Nanaimo, BC 2, Courtenay, BC Duncan, BC Campbell River, BC Parksville, BC Powell River, BC Port Alberni. BC 145 Please also note these figures are not "net." They show only the number of in-migrants and not the number of out-migrants (simply because the out-migrants living around the world are not captured in the National Household Survey). The national top 10 for international in-migrants is dominated by the largest metro areas in the country, particularly Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. The Nanaimo, Courtenay and Duncan urban areas all rank in the top half of the national rankings. Even those ICET communities with relatively few international inmigrants are well above the bottom of the rankings, which is entirely made up of smaller urban areas in Quebec and Ontario. Jamie Vann Struth

6 Page 6 of 6 Appendix: Geographic Areas The seven Census Agglomerations (CAs) in the ICET region are shown below with their exact geographic components. Data is not available for other parts of the region. Campbell River CA Municipality of Campbell River Strathcona Regional District Area D Campbell River 11, Homalco 9 and Quinsam 12 Reserves Courtenay CA Municipalities of Courtenay, Comox and Cumberland Comox Valley Regional District Areas A and B Comox 1 Reserve Duncan CA Municipalities of Duncan and North Cowichan Cowichan Valley Regional District Electoral Areas D and E Cowichan, Halalt 2, Squaw-hay-one 11, Theik 2, Tsussie 6 and Tzart-Lam 5 Reserves Nanaimo CA Municipalities of Nanaimo and Lantzville Regional District of Nanaimo Electoral Areas A and C Nanaimo River, Nanaimo Town 1 and Nanoose Reserves Parksville CA Municipalities of Parksville and Qualicum Beach Regional District of Nanaimo Electoral Area G Port Alberni CA Municipality of Port Alberni Alberni-Clayoquot Regional District Electoral Areas B, D, E and F Ahahswinis 1, Alberni 2, Klehkoot 2 and Tsahaheh Reserves Powell River CA Municipalities of Powell River and Sechelt Indian Government District (Part) Powell River Regional District Electoral Areas B and C