Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Transcription

1 Current Watches/Warnings All Warnings have been discontinued. Hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the U.S. east coast between Chincoteague, VA and Chatham, MA. This includes the tidal Potomac from Cobb Island to Smith Point, the middle and upper Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and the coasts of the northern Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, the New York City area, Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island. storm-force winds are expected north of Chatham to Merrimack River, Massachusetts, the lower Chesapeake Bay, and south of Chincoteague to extreme northeastern North Carolina. Other coastal and inland watches and warnings are in effect for these areas. Please see statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 38.8 north, 74.4 west (previous location: 37.5 north, 71.5 west) LOCATION: 30 miles (45 kilometers) east-southeast of Cape May, New Jersey MOVEMENT: west-northwest at 28 mph (44 kph) (previous movement: north-northwest at 18 mph (30 kph)) WINDS: 90 mph (150 kph) with gusts to 115 mph (185 kph) (previous sustained winds: 90 mph (150 kph)) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 485 miles (780 kilometers) from the center of circulation RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 175 miles (280 kilometers) from the center of circulation CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 mb (27.76 inches of mercury) (previous pressure: 943 mb) SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 1 FORECASTED LANDFALL LOCATION: near Cape May, New Jersey FORECASTED LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: Monday evening Eastern Time 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: Latest Satellite Picture (Image by NOAA) None Low Med High Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

2 Discussion Hurricane Sandy, located approximately 30 miles (45 kilometers) east-southeast of Cape May, New Jersey, is currently tracking west-northwest at 28 mph (44 kph). The convective structure of Sandy has deteriorated today even as the central pressure has continued to slowly fall suggesting that the convection is no longer in control. The intensification observed this morning was associated with strong winds occurring to the southwest of the center (located outside of the central core) and was almost certainly due to baroclinic forcing. In addition, aircraft data indicate that there are strong temperature contrasts near a modest residual warm core. Water vapor imagery indicates that Sandy is becoming absorbed within a large mid-latitude cyclonic circulation. All of these considerations lead the NHC to conclude that the most appropriate classification at advisory time is extratropical. However, for continuity, the NHC is continuing to issue advisories through landfall. A post-storm analysis will re-examine the timing of extratropical transition. There has been no significant change to the post-landfall track or intensity forecast. Despite the rapid forward motion today, Sandy is expected to stall inland tomorrow. This factor, coupled with the very large size of the system, will mean that conditions will be slow to improve in the affected areas. Strong winds will persist along the coast and spread farther inland through at least Tuesday. Of particular concern are the upper floors of highrise buildings, as reconnaissance data indicate that winds just a few hundred feet in altitude are very much stronger than those near the surface. Even as Sandy weakens, heavy rains will persist over a large area and pose a very significant inland flood risk. To avoid a highly disruptive change from tropical to non-tropical warnings as Sandy becomes post-tropical, the wind and other hazards will continue to be conveyed through High Wind warnings issued by local National Weather Service offices. storm conditions (or gale-force winds) are already occurring over portions of the Mid- Atlantic States from North Carolina northward to southern New England. Gale-force winds are expected to continue to spread over other portions of the Mid-Atlantic States over the next couple of hours. Hurricane-force wind gusts have reached southern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Hurricane-force winds are expected to gradually spread across southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States, from Connecticut southward to New Jersey and Delaware including New York City and Long Island. It is important to note that winds affecting the upper floors of highrise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. The combination of an extremely dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following depths above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: - North Carolina north of Surf City, including Pamlico/Albemarle sounds: 3 to 5 feet - Southeast Virginia and Delmarva, including lower Chesapeake Bay: 2 to 4 feet - Upper and middle Chesapeake Bay: 1 to 3 feet - Long Island Sound, Raritan Bay, and New York Harbor: 6 to 11 feet - Elsewhere from Ocean City, MD to the CT/RI border: 4 to 8 feet - CT/RI border to the south shore of Cape Cod, including Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay: 3 to 6 feet - Cape Cod to the MA/NH border, including Cape Cod Bay: 2 to 4 feet - MA/NH border to the U.S./Canada border: 1 to 3 feet Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

3 Select Predicted Hide Tide Information (Source: NOAA s Tide and Currents) - Ocean City Inlet, MD: 8:25 PM Monday (2.13 feet); 8:56 AM Tuesday (2.56 feet) - Atlantic City, NJ: 8:00 PM Monday (4.12 feet); 8:17 AM Tuesday (4.84 feet) - Cape May, NJ: 9:09 PM Monday (4.90 feet); 9:25 AM Tuesday (5.67 feet) - Sandy Hook, NJ: 8:22 PM Monday (4.88 feet); 8:37 AM Tuesday (5.50 feet) - Montauk, NY: 9:23 PM Monday (2.12 feet); 9:45 AM Tuesday (2.75 feet) - Bergen Point West Reach, NY: 8:53 PM (5.25 feet); 9:04 AM Tuesday (5.82 feet) - New Haven, CT: 11:53 PM Monday (6.21 feet); 12:05 PM Tuesday (6.94 feet) - Bridgeport, CT: 11:57 PM Monday (6.89 feet); 12:06 PM Tuesday (7.50 feet) - Nantucket Island, MA: 1:17 AM Tuesday (2.87 feet); 1:09 PM Tuesday (3.54 feet) Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Given the large wind field associated with Sandy, elevated water levels could span multiple tide cycles resulting in repeated and extended periods of coastal and bayside flooding. Also, elevated waters could occur far removed from the center of Sandy. These conditions will occur regardless of whether Sandy is a tropical or post-tropical cyclone. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected over far northeastern North Carolina, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic States, including the Delmarva Peninsula, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches are possible from the southern tier of New York state northeastward through New England. Snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet are expected in the mountains of West Virginia, with locally higher totals today through Wednesday. Snowfall of 1 to 2 feet is expected in the mountains of southwestern Virginia to the Kentucky border, with 12 to 18 inches of snow expected in the mountains near the North Carolina/Tennessee border and in the mountains of western Maryland. Dangerous surf conditions will continue from Florida through New England for the next couple of days. Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

4 National Hurricane Center Forecast (Maximum sustained winds listed near times) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

5 Current Surface Wind Field Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

6 National Hurricane Center Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

7 Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

8 Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

9 Surge Height Estimates (Latest storm surge from the National Hurricane Center s SLOSH model) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

10 Rainfall Probabilities (Latest rainfall estimates from NOAA s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

11 Current Spaghetti Model Output Data (Latest forecast computer model runs from the National Hurricane Center) Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at NEXT CAT ALERT: Tuesday morning after 10:00 AM Central Time. Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

12 * Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) Depression NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Depression BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Depression SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Depression Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) Depression North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Depression Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic Cat. 4 Major Hurricane Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,

13 About Impact Forecasting LLC: Impact Forecasting LLC is a catastrophe model development center of excellence within Aon Benfield whose seismologists, meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers, mathematicians, GIS experts, finance, risk management and insurance professionals analyze the financial implications of natural and man-made catastrophes around the world. Impact Forecasting s experts develop software tools and models that help clients understand underlying risks from hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires and terrorist attacks on property, casualty and crop insurers and reinsurers. Impact Forecasting is the only catastrophe model development firm integrated into a reinsurance intermediary. To find out more about Impact Forecasting LLC, visit About Aon Benfield: As the industry leader in treaty, facultative and capital markets, Aon Benfield is redefining the role of the reinsurance intermediary and capital advisor. Through our unmatched talent and industry-leading proprietary tools and products, we help our clients to redefine themselves and their success. Aon Benfield offers unbiased capital advice and customized access to more reinsurance and capital markets than anyone else. As a trusted advocate, we provide local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial, and rating agency advisory, and the right professionals to advise clients in making the optimal capital choice for their business. With an international network of more than 4,000 professionals in 50 countries, our worldwide client base is able to access the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. Learn more at aonbenfield.com. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting LLC summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting LLC and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at Copyright by Impact Forecasting L.L.C. No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting LLC has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting LLC does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Impact Forecasting Cat Alert: Hurricane Sandy Position and Intensity Data as of 4:00 PM Central Time, October 29,