Tropical Program Update

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1 Tropical Program Update Mark Tew Chief, Marine and Coastal Weather Services Branch Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services x 125

2 Changes to the Tropical Warning Program Start Transformation by the 2015 Hurricane Season New Storm Surge Watch and Storm Surge Warning product Disseminated through a Tropical Cyclone Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) (TCV)-like product from National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) New WFO TCV Largely automated and include all local watches and warnings and meteorological information in a one zone-one segment basis Replaces the Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) as the WFO tropical cyclone watch/warning product Provides detailed meteorological information in an easy to read and computer readable format Updated HLS No VTEC, Non-Segmented Product Discussion preparedness product conveying a succinct message on local impacts Reformatted based on social science research

3 Possible WFO-issued TCV product Version 1 - Waiting for Social Science Report WTUS82 * STORM KMFL SURGE DDHHMM AND STORM TIDE: TCVMFL - POTENTIAL IMPACT: HIGH. LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS INCLUDING: URGENT - STRUCTURAL - IMMEDIATE DAMAGE BROADCAST FROM SEA REQUESTED WATER. HURRICANE - SEVERE SUITER BEACH LOCAL EROSION. WATCH/WARNING VTEC STATEMENT AL NATIONAL - SECTIONS WEATHER OF SERVICE NEAR-SHORE MIAMI ROADS FL WASHED OUT AM LOW-LYING EDT FRI ESCAPE MAY 29 ROUTES 2009 SEVERELY FLOODED. - STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SHORELINE BUILDINGS, A FEW WASHING INTO THE SEA. FLZ DAMAGE COMPOUNDED BY FLOATING DEBRIS. /O.CON.KMFL.HU.W T0000Z T0000Z/ - DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, AND PIERS. /O.CON.KMFL.SS.A T0000Z T0000Z/ - MANY SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL UNPROTECTED MIAMI DADE- ANCHORAGES, LIFTED ONSHORE AND STRANDED. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIAMI BEACH...DOWNTOWN MIAMI MAX AM STORM EDT FRI SURGE: MAY FT ABOVE GROUND....HURRICANE - TIMING: WARNING IN EFFECT......STORM - SURGE SURGE GREATER WATCH THAN IN EFFECT... 2 FT: BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON....FLOOD AND/OR TORNADO WATCH HEADLINES WILL BE HERE TOO... * RAINFALL: * WIND: - POTENTIAL IMPACT: HIGH. - - POTENTIAL AREAS OF IMPACT: WATER ENTERING EXTREME. HOMES DEVASTATING AND BUSINESSES. WIND DAMAGE INCLUDING: - STRUCTURAL FLOODING OF DAMAGE PRIMARY/SECONDARY TO COMMERCIAL ROADS AND RESIDENTIAL AND OVERFLOW BUILDINGS, CANALS. WITH SOME HAVING COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURES. - COMPLETE AMOUNTS: DESTRUCTION 4 OF 8 MOBILE INCHES. HOMES. - NUMEROUS ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE TO LARGE DEBRIS. * TORNADO: - WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES FOR POSSIBLY MONTHS IN HARDEST HIT AREAS. - POTENTIAL MAX SUSTAINED IMPACT: WIND: LOW POSSIBLE MPH TORNADOES WITH GUSTS IN TO RAIN 110 BANDS MPH. AHEAD OF THE HIGHER WINDS DURING EVACUATION AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. - TIMING: $$ - HURRICANE FORCE: BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. - TROPICAL STORM: BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

4 Possible WFO-issued TCV product Version 2 - Waiting for Social Science Report WTUS82 * STORM KMFL SURGE DDHHMM AND STORM TIDE: TCVMFL - MAX STORM SURGE: 5 7 FT ABOVE GROUND. URGENT - ONSET - IMMEDIATE > 2 FT: BROADCAST SATURDAY REQUESTED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE - DURATION: SUITER LOCAL WATCH/WARNING 6-12 HOURS. VTEC STATEMENT AL NATIONAL - POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACT: SERVICE MIAMI HIGH. FL 1107 AM EDT FRI MAY LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS. FLZ STRUCTURAL DAMAGE FROM SEA WATER. /O.CON.KMFL.HU.W T0000Z T0000Z/ + LOW-LYING ESCAPE ROUTES SEVERELY FLOODED OR WASHED OUT. /O.CON.KMFL.SS.A T0000Z T0000Z/ + SEVERE BEACH EROSION. COASTAL MIAMI DADE- * INCLUDING RAINFALL: THE CITIES OF...MIAMI BEACH...DOWNTOWN MIAMI 1107 AM EDT FRI MAY AMOUNTS: 4 8 INCHES....HURRICANE - POTENTIAL WARNING IMPACT: IN EFFECT... HIGH....STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT......FLOOD + AND/OR AREAS TORNADO OF WATER WATCH ENTERING HEADLINES HOMES WILL AND BUSINESSES. BE HERE TOO... + FLOODING OF PRIMARY/SECONDARY ROADS AND OVERFLOW CANALS. * WIND: * TORNADO: - MAX SUSTAINED WIND: MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH - POTENTIAL ONSET HURRICANE: IMPACT: LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT - DURATION: 6-12 HOURS - + ONSET POSSIBLE TROPICAL TORNADOES STORM: SATURDAY IN RAIN AFTERNOON BANDS AHEAD THROUGH OF THE EVENING HIGHER WINDS - DURATION: DURING EVACUATION AND PREPAREDNESS HOURS ACTIVITIES. - POTENTIAL IMPACT: EXTREME DEVASTATING WIND DAMAGE $$ + WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES FOR POSSIBLY MONTHS. + MANY BRIDGES/ACCESS ROUTES TO/FROM BARRIER ISLANDS IMPASSABLE. + STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO COMMERCIAL AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS WITH SOME HAVING COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURES. + COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. + NUMEROUS ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE LARGE DEBRIS AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

5 Possible WFO HLS product Waiting for Social Science Report WTUS82 * SITUATION SURGE: PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS KMFL OVERVIEW DDHHMM ACTIONS HLSMFL LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND MONROE, BROWARD, PALM BEACH, AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. THIS MEANS THE URGENT POTENTIAL * EXTREMELY EVACUATIONS: - IMMEDIATE FOR: DANGEROUS BROADCAST HURRICANE REQUESTED SUITER IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS HURRICANE GO WEEKEND. - TO STRUCTURAL XXX.ORG THE SUITER MAIN FOR DAMAGE LOCAL THE CONCERN FROM LATEST STATEMENT IS SEA EVACUATION FOR WATER. DEVASTATING INFORMATION. TO LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE FROM NATIONAL WIND - SEVERE AND WEATHER SURGE BEACH IN SERVICE EROSION. SOUTH FLORIDA MIAMI FL SOMETIME AL BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR - SECTIONS THOSE AM EDT NOT FRI OF UNDER MAY NEAR-SHORE 29 EVACUATION 2009 ROADS ORDERS, WASHED UNDERSTAND OUT. THAT THERE ARE INHERENT RISKS TO EVACUATION SIGNIFICANT - LOW-LYING (TRAFFIC POTENTIAL ESCAPE ACCIDENTS, ROUTES IMPACTS SEVERELY CONGESTION, FLOODED. AND GETTING CAUGHT ON THE ROAD DURING THIS BAD STRUCTURAL WEATHER), PRODUCT COVERS SO DAMAGE EVACUATE MAINLAND TO SHORELINE ONLY SOUTH IF YOU FLORIDA BUILDINGS, NEED TO. WITH THAT A WOULD FEW WASHING ALSO HELP KEEP ROADWAYS OPEN THE INTO POTENTIAL FOR THE THOSE SEA. EXISTS THAT ARE FOR UNDER MODERATE EVACUATION TO HIGH ORDERS. IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR INLAND **DEVASTATING FLOODING - DAMAGE FROM COMPOUNDED DAMAGE HEAVY RAINS. AND BY LIFE FLOATING THREATENING DEBRIS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HURRICANE SUITER * - OTHER DAMAGE MOVES PREPAREDNESS TO THROUGH MARINAS, THE INFORMATION: DOCKS, SOUTHEASTERN AND PIERS. BAHAMAS TODAY AND TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED - MANY THOSE AND SMALL TORNADOES UNDER SATURDAY** CRAFT A WARNING, ARE BROKEN POSSIBLE NOW AWAY IS AS FROM THE THE MOORINGS, TIME SYSTEM TO RUSH APPROACHES ESPECIALLY TO COMPLETION AND IN MOVES PREPARATIONS ACROSS THE FOR THE AREA. UNPROTECTED PROTECTION OF ANCHORAGES, LIFE AND PROPERTY. LIFTED ONSHORE AND STRANDED. NEW INFORMATION IN PEOPLE WHEN MIAMI MAKING NEAR DADE THE DECISIONS, TO COAST PALM BEACH IN DO THE NOT COUNTIES WARNING FOCUS ON THE AREA THE THREAT SHOULD EXACT IS FINISH FORECAST MOSTLY PREPARATIONS CONFINED TRACK AND TO INTENSITY. NOW. BARRIER IF YOU IT ISLAND LIVE TOO ON AND EARLY A BOAT, AREAS TO SECURE PROVIDE IMMEDIATELY IT SPECIFIC BEFORE ADJACENT LEAVING. INFORMATION. TO THE COAST/INSTRACOASTAL EAST OF U.S. 1. * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: IT FOR * - WIND: IS NONE THOSE TOO EARLY UNDER TO A WATCH, PROVIDE REVIEW SPECIFIC YOUR INFORMATION PREPAREDNESS BUT PLANS ALONG AND COASTAL BE READY COLLIER TO IMPLEMENT AND MAINLAND THEM DEVASTATING SHOULD MONROE. A TO WARNING CATASTROPHIC THERE BE IS ISSUED A POTENTIAL DAMAGE FOR IS YOUR FOR EXPECTED AREA. LIFE THREATENING PORTIONS SURGE OF PALM PENETRATING BEACH TO MIAMI MILES * INLAND. DADE CURRENT COUNTIES WATCHES AND AND THE WARNINGS: LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR: FOR - A COASTAL STRUCTURAL HURRICANE INTERESTS DAMAGE WARNING UNDER TO AND COMMERCIAL STORM A WATCH, SURGE AND RETURN WATCH RESIDENTIAL TO REMAIN PORT OR BUILDINGS, IN SEEK EFFECT SAFE FOR: WITH HARBOR. PALM SOME BEACH...BROWARD...AND HAVING COMPLETE WALL AND MIAMI ROOF DADE FAILURES. * NEXT - A COMPLETE HURRICANE UPDATE DESTRUCTION WATCH AND OF STORM MOBILE SURGE HOMES. WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR: GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND NUMEROUS ROADS IMPASSABLE DUE TO MAINLAND LARGE DEBRIS. MONROE - MANY BRIDGES AND OTHER ACCESS ROUTES TO/FROM BARRIER ISLANDS * THE STORM NEXT IMPASSABLE. INFORMATION: LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI AROUND - ABOUT WIDESPREAD 6 PM 600 EDT, MI POWER ESE OR SOONER OF OUTAGES WEST IF PALM FOR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BEACH FL WARRANT. MONTHS IN HARDEST HIT - ABOUT AREAS. 580 MI ESE OF MIAMI FL $$ N 71.9W - STORM INTENSITY 150 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS - MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH

6 Proposed Changes to MWW Preparation for 2015 Tropical Changes MWW product to carry Tropical Wind Watches & Warnings for marine zones Tropical Storm Watch and Warning (TS.A, TS.W) Hurricane Watch and Warning (HU.A, HU.W) New WFO TCV carry Tropical Wind Watches & Warnings for land zones

7 Storm Surge Improvements NOAA Storm Surge Roadmap commenced in 2005, following Hurricane Isabel (2003) and was energized by Hurricanes Katrina (2005), Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012) Comprehensive social science research has been completed and documents the public s understanding, or lack thereof, of storm surge NWS needs to provide (text) storm surge information in terms of total water level/inundation (height above ground) NWS needs to provide a forecast inundation graphic World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Hurricane Sandy Assessment recommend a storm surge warning, a missing link for our nation s hurricane program

8 Storm Surge Inundation Graphic The entire graphic including colors, labels, thresholds, wording was tested extensively by social scientists with focus groups Implementation of experimental tropical cyclone inundation graphic in 2014 Lays the foundation for extra-tropical inundation graphic (beyond 2015)

9 Storm Surge Watch/Warning NWS is developing a collaborative process between the NHC and WFOs to issue tropical cyclone storm surge watches and warnings Implementation of experimental tropical cyclone storm surge watches and warnings in 2015 Future work: Expand to include extra-tropical storms AMS February 5, 2014

10 Experimental Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics (TCIG) Graphics Provides threat and potential impact based information from tropical cyclones: - Wind - Coastal flooding - Inland flooding - Tornadoes Some offices also issue a marine hazards and combined impact graphic Working with social scientists on how to more effectively communicate the impacts Mosaic of multiple WFOs Operational in AMS February 5, 2014

11 Official implementation planned for the 2015 season DS/PS/SW

12 New Interactive Tropical Cyclone Page Provides all tropical information from the National Centers and WFOs on one interactive web site Contains the hazard information from the new TCV and TCIG products Enables user access to all the info derived from these new products to be easily accessible through a new web interface

13 HLS/TCV/Storm Surge Key Milestones Date Action Status Apr 2013 Storm Surge Inundation Graphic approved by Social Scientists Complete Feb 2014 New HLS/TCV examples approved by social scientists In Progress May 2014 Develop HLS/TCV requirements On Track Jun 2014 Develop HLS/TCV formatter On Track Jun 2014 Implement experimental tropical inundation graphic On Track Jul 2014 Issue Public Information Statement (PNS) announcing experimental test of new TCV Aug - Nov 2014 OT&E of experimental TCV at Operations Proving Ground On Track On Track Jun 2015 Implement experimental tropical Storm Surge Watch & Warning On Track Jun 2015 Implement operational WFO TCV & updated HLS On Track Jun 2015 Implement operational TCIG approved by social scientists On Track Jun 2016 Implement interactive tropical cyclone web portal On Track Jun 2016 Implement operational tropical Storm Surge Watch/Warning and inundation graphic On Track

14 Questions Mark Tew x125

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